List Mgmt. 2020 List Management

[DangerousD]

I think they will demand far more than that, he is clearly their most important player.. Would we accept this for Cripps?? I think they will get to a point where they simply do what ever it takes to make him happy.. FWIW 2 first round picks i would do it, in a heartbeat.

His girlfriend relocated back to Melbourne last year, he wants to come back as living away from your partner and family would be tough, I’m sure during this pandemic crap, the desire to be with your partner and family would be greater.

A few commentators have said the same thing, do whatever you need to, to make him happy. Unless they can relocate his girlfriend, back to the city she just left and leave her job, I don’t see what they could offer.

 

[Gethelred]

As you slides to, not many clubs are in a position to offer more than what we can in terms of picks and $$$. Hawthorn possibly, but would need to trade out senior guys and offer their 1st pick for a player that isn’t going to drive a rebuild, North have two 1st rounders this year and anything from trades, so they will be in a good spot to trade and I don’t see Geelong having the means to get a deal done.

Would Sydney and Papley come to an agreement at the end of last season?

They could've, and they should've, but we don't know that they did. The only thing we know is that they and him are making him the most bankable they possibly can.

That suggests bidding war to me. It might not be a fully fledged bidding war, because Papley might have only us in mind, but they're going to make credible attempts are shopping him elsewhere that will raise his price.

I don’t understand the hurt comment, trading two first rounders with a second coming back, for a really good player doesn’t hurt, it helps, what hurts is, taking kids in the first round of the draft and 3-5 years later realising they aren’t up to it or still saying they need time or a good run from injury.

What hurts is trade amount AND contract size/length. Even after this year, he is still a small forward. He might go a fair way up and down the ground, but that's what he is. I am not content to pay a small forward 500 thousand a year even now.

We need to keep our salary cap under control. Is it worth getting Papley if we're losing Harry in three years?

You put up a list the other day of players you liked or types you liked, would any of them be available with the pick that would come back in a Papley trade? If yes, it then isnt 2 first round picks for Papley, it’s two 1st round picks for Papley and Witherden, or Papley and Hill, it looks a lot better then.

If Papley does not cost 2 first round picks, then I'm all for it (provided as stated that his contract is not bonkers). I do not think the Lions would trade Witherden for a second, nor the Giants for Hill.

I think they - Sydney - are going to find a buyer, and will have spent this entire season chirping in his ear and to his manager to 'be professional, maximize your financials'; anything, in order to widen the market to whomever will pay the most. After all, they'd be remiss not to.

 

[TheLeftFooters]

Fagan mentioned last year that Witherden struggled with homesickness early on, that’s enough for me to suggest he would welcome offers, if he’s not playing and his attitude isn’t great, it could be a reflection of not being happy in Brisbane.

Definitely worth a phone call then!

Josh Kelly will be far easier to extract from GWS than what Papley will be from Sydney.

The difference between the two trades is that GWS have a plethora of young, elite midfielders struggling to get a game. They'll either lose Kelly or a handful of young stars taken in the first round of their respective drafts.

Sydney don't have the same amount of talent stockpiled to replace Papley.

This, coupled with the cap squeeze and GWS will result in some kind of fallout.

I have always been a massive fan of Josh Kelly and if we got him I'd be doing flips off the wall! Not many players i'd pay two 1sts for but Jelly is one.

 

[DangerousD]

Terrible trade. Two first round picks is selling the farm. We offered pick 9 last year that the swans would have excepted if they got Daniher. Charlie Cameron went to Brisbane for pick 12. Our pick looks more like pick 5 or 6 this year.
Two first round picks will show how desperate the CEO is in bring in a player to justify the departure of sos.

Any excuse to include the CEO in your posts hey?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Terrible trade. Two first round picks is selling the farm. We offered pick 9 last year that the swans would have excepted if they got Daniher. Charlie Cameron went to Brisbane for pick 12. Our pick looks more like pick 5 or 6 this year.
Two first round picks will show how desperate the CEO is in bring in a player to justify the departure of sos.

2 first round picks for us is not what it used to be, we shouldnt be anywhere near the bottom... 2 first round picks for a 24 year old All Australian (which he will be this year) seems like incredibly good value.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Definitely worth a phone call then!


I have always been a massive fan of Josh Kelly and if we got him I'd be doing flips off the wall! Not many players i'd pay two 1sts for but Jelly is one.

100% if it comes down to a choice between Kelly & Papley, Kelly is the easy choice...

 

[DangerousD]

They could've, and they should've, but we don't know that they did. The only thing we know is that they and him are making him the most bankable they possibly can.

That suggests bidding war to me. It might not be a fully fledged bidding war, because Papley might have only us in mind, but they're going to make credible attempts are shopping him elsewhere that will raise his price.


What hurts is trade amount AND contract size/length. Even after this year, he is still a small forward. He might go a fair way up and down the ground, but that's what he is. I am not content to pay a small forward 500 thousand a year even now.

We need to keep our salary cap under control. Is it worth getting Papley if we're losing Harry in three years?


If Papley does not cost 2 first round picks, then I'm all for it (provided as stated that his contract is not bonkers). I do not think the Lions would trade Witherden for a second, nor the Giants for Hill.

I think they - Sydney - are going to find a buyer, and will have spent this entire season chirping in his ear and to his manager to 'be professional, maximize your financials'; anything, in order to widen the market to whomever will pay the most. After all, they'd be remiss not to.

Agree they will get a very good deal if he leaves, Hill and Witherden might need a pick swap later on but neither of them I think will require an extra pick.

Either my evaluations of what players contracts are worth are way off or you’re a bit tight, but $500,000 isnt much for your top 10 players, I’m not sure why Papley would cost Harry, of course you wouldn’t want that, in saying that the suggestion is pretty silly, considering we were chasing Cogs last year, Papley last year and Shiel the year before.

Can you remember when Eddie left for the Crows? I remember at the time, so many posters saying let him go, he’s not worth $600,000 a year, the same with Cameron two seasons ago, laughing at Brisbane for offering pick 12 or whatever it was, none of it matters if the player is good.

If I said to you, we have just recruited a forward, who plays mostly forward but regularly pushes up high and in to the midfield, he kicks about 35-45 goals per year. Are you worried if he costs $500,000-$600,000? We haven’t had a player kick 40 goals a year for a long time.

 

[CJMB]

The only problem is that the Bulldogs and Sydney are two teams who have early academy kids so later first rounders are pointless to them.

Unless those 1sts land before their academy pick, in which case they're even more valuable.

Look at GWS last year, Had Green touted as anywhere from 3-6 and they tried really hard to get a pick ahead of where he would be bid on. In the end it was SOS who bid on him at 10, but the strategy of getting ahead (pick 4, Lachie Ash) worked perfectly. Similarly Freo with Young, Serrong ahead of academy kid Henry. They've gone into a points deficit because of it so I think their first this year might get pushed back a spot, but who cares because they landed 3 top 10 picks last year.

The Dogs situation is a bit awkward with Ugle-Hagan being a potential pick 1, will Ade (assuming) bid on him with 1? Regardless, he'll go early so it might be really hard to get ahead. I'm not sure where their other kid Raak is expected to fall.

The Swans have Campbell, Gulden and another 1 or 2 if I remember correctly. If they can get a pick ahead of the first one to be bid on, that's another top-rated kid they get. Then they use a first for the first academy prospect that's bid on, if they have another pick before the next kid is bid on then that's an additional 1st they can draft. The later ones can get matched with a bunch of later picks. If the Swans play their cards right they could do some serious bolstering of their young talent in one year.

Depending on where Dogs & Swans' highest rated prospect is expected to be bid on, they might be willing to accumulate a selection of 1sts and trade up to a top 2 or 3 pick and get ahead. There's plenty of machinations, and points are definitely important as well as position.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

His girlfriend relocated back to Melbourne last year, he wants to come back as living away from your partner and family would be tough, I’m sure during this pandemic crap, the desire to be with your partner and family would be greater.

A few commentators have said the same thing, do whatever you need to, to make him happy. Unless they can relocate his girlfriend, back to the city she just left and leave her job, I don’t see what they could offer.

yeah it would be tough, but he is 24 year old who is earning exceptional money probably living in Bondi or Manley.. At that age girlfriends are hardly make or break especially if he has lived apart for the past 12 months... They may make a mature decision as a couple and go separate ways.

 

[Eiffel 65]

I have been warning to us having another crack at Ollie Wines in recent weeks, his form lately has been outstanding.

Don't think we have the currency to get both him and Papley, I would be rapt with either really.

Suspect LOB may seek greener pastures if he cannot get a game soon (not sure of his contract status)

Simmo can go around for another year (If he wants to).

Jack Steele would be a far better option for the way we want to play. Not only a contested beast, but an excellent 2 way runner, which is what Teague would want. 24 years of age and out of contract.

If we end up with say pick 5, we could potentially swap it with a team like Geelong for their pick 11 and a pick in the late teens (they have 3 - WC, theirs and priority pick). Use one of those picks for Steele and the other for another trade.

This could come about if they're not willing to pay him his market rate of 700-800k.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

What hurts is trade amount AND contract size/length. Even after this year, he is still a small forward. He might go a fair way up and down the ground, but that's what he is. I am not content to pay a small forward 500 thousand a year even now.

Do you think Brisbane regret paying up for Charlie Cameron, another small forward??

 

[Eiffel 65]

Terrible trade. Two first round picks is selling the farm. We offered pick 9 last year that the swans would have excepted if they got Daniher. Charlie Cameron went to Brisbane for pick 12. Our pick looks more like pick 5 or 6 this year.
Two first round picks will show how desperate the CEO is in bring in a player to justify the departure of sos.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there was word going around that we were requesting a 2nd rounder along with Papley as part of that trade.

We weren't offering a flat out pick 9 for Papley, it was pick 9 for Papley and pick 26.

So technically we never made an offer to the value of a top 10 draft selection.

 

[skadoosh]

yeah it would be tough, but he is 24 year old who is earning exceptional money probably living in Bondi or Manley.. At that age girlfriends are hardly make or break especially if he has lived apart for the past 12 months... They may make a mature decision as a couple and go separate ways.

This comment is pure garbage. Sorry - how many assumptions are you trying to make in 1 sentence?

 

[Gethelred]

Agree they will get a very good deal if he leaves, Hill and Witherden might need a pick swap later on but neither of them I think will require an extra pick.

Either my evaluations of what players contracts are worth are way off or you’re a bit tight, but $500,000 isnt much for your top 10 players, I’m not sure why Papley would cost Harry, of course you wouldn’t want that, in saying that the suggestion is pretty silly, considering we were chasing Cogs last year, Papley last year and Shiel the year before.

Come on.

What I clearly meant was over time due to ramping contract amounts to other players, big signings akin to what we intended for Cogs and what we did for Martin inhibit our ability to retain players. Harry is someone who could be subject to being squeezed out by this.

There's a key difference between paying big numbers to a midfielder who has influence over the entire field, and someone who only works in the front half.

Can you remember when Eddie left for the Crows? I remember at the time, so many posters saying let him go, he’s not worth $600,000 a year, the same with Cameron two seasons ago, laughing at Brisbane for offering pick 12 or whatever it was, none of it matters if the player is good.

Yes, and I agreed with the decision at the time because no small forward is worth that much!

It's also a mite disingenuous, as Eddie has stated that, had Carlton paid him an extra 50 thousand a year on top of what they were already paying - not to match, just enough to give him enough financial incentive to remain - he'd have stayed. Eddie is actually an example of the above; we didn't have the room to spare for him within the salary cap, we couldn't afford him and Daisy at the same time, so he left and Daisy came in.

If I said to you, we have just recruited a forward, who plays mostly forward but regularly pushes up high and in to the midfield, he kicks about 35-45 goals per year. Are you worried if he costs $500,000-$600,000? We haven’t had a player kick 40 goals a year for a long time.

Yes, I am. Having 5-8 players kick 30 is better than 2-3 kicking 40+.

Provided we can arrange for Martin's contract to be manipulated year in year to allow for other signings, one can be dealt with. But we can't keep doing it. Gov and Martin could be plenty, or we could go one or two more; all I'm saying is that it's a balance.

Do you think Brisbane regret paying up for Charlie Cameron, another small forward??

Not yet, they don't.

But mistake me not; they haven't won a flag quite yet, nor have they quite reached the point where they have to find money to retain Harris, Hipwood, Berry, McCluggage et al. There is a chance that, due to having signed Neale and Cameron, they could lose players around them and not quite get there.

Contract size means as much as what is paid to obtain him in trade. We are not so close to a flag that 1-2 canny additions will push us over the edge; it's going to take good recruiting, disciplined list management and still more turnover before we get to where we all want to go.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

This comment is pure garbage. Sorry - how many assumptions are you trying to make in 1 sentence?

We are on bigfooty..

 

[skadoosh]

We are on bigfooty..

???

 

[CJMB]

Do you think Brisbane regret paying up for Charlie Cameron, another small forward??

Cameron went for less than we were offering last year. This year we'd have to significantly up our offer.

Pick 9 got rejected last year, for arguments sake, say we get pick 9 again this year and add 18 to add the lowest possible additional 1st. I know it's not a perfect system, but looking at draft points:

Cameron: #12 = 1268
Papley offer '19: #9 = 1469 (16% higher than Cameron)
Papley offer '20: #9 + #18 = 2454 (roughly equivalent of pick 2, 67% higher than our offer last year and 94% higher than Cameron).

Even if they sent a mid 2nd back with Papley, say #27, it's still the equivalent of pick 6, 19% higher than our previous offer and 38% higher than Cameron.

At what point does it become too much?

What if for the same picks we could get a gun wing and a capable young small forward? Then try our luck at Williams or a younger option like Witherden? Perhaps someone we like might leave GCS to seek opportunities, what with their 50-odd list size and stacked draftees from the last couple (and finally getting some reliable mature role players like Greenwood, Ellis & Collins into the side).

I'd love Papley, but like anything there has to be a point where the cost is too great and you walk away.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there was word going around that we were requesting a 2nd rounder along with Papley as part of that trade.

We weren't offering a flat out pick 9 for Papley, it was pick 9 for Papley and pick 26.

So technically we never made an offer to the value of a top 10 draft selection.

That may have been our opening offer, but my understanding was that a straight swap for pick 9 was on the table.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Unless those 1sts land before their academy pick, in which case they're even more valuable.

Look at GWS last year, Had Green touted as anywhere from 3-6 and they tried really hard to get a pick ahead of where he would be bid on. In the end it was SOS who bid on him at 10, but the strategy of getting ahead (pick 4, Lachie Ash) worked perfectly. Similarly Freo with Young, Serrong ahead of academy kid Henry. They've gone into a points deficit because of it so I think their first this year might get pushed back a spot, but who cares because they landed 3 top 10 picks last year.

The Dogs situation is a bit awkward with Ugle-Hagan being a potential pick 1, will Ade (assuming) bid on him with 1? Regardless, he'll go early so it might be really hard to get ahead. I'm not sure where their other kid Raak is expected to fall.

The Swans have Campbell, Gulden and another 1 or 2 if I remember correctly. If they can get a pick ahead of the first one to be bid on, that's another top-rated kid they get. Then they use a first for the first academy prospect that's bid on, if they have another pick before the next kid is bid on then that's an additional 1st they can draft. The later ones can get matched with a bunch of later picks. If the Swans play their cards right they could do some serious bolstering of their young talent in one year.

Depending on where Dogs & Swans' highest rated prospect is expected to be bid on, they might be willing to accumulate a selection of 1sts and trade up to a top 2 or 3 pick and get ahead. There's plenty of machinations, and points are definitely important as well as position.

Imo dogs should be trading out next years and probably this years first. Say get Papley or some other gun worth two firsts and UH and just not worry about all the other picks getting pushed back to the back of the draft. Something like that.
Swans first pick will be before a bid is made if they can trade Papley for a pick ~7 and ~30 then they get three top ~8 kids plus Gulden and shouldn’t have to go into deficit next year. Imo that’s realistic and the best case for them and it’s a fair price for whoever gets Papley.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Random musings:

- I think with likely list size reductions, it would be highly unlikely for us to acquire more than 2 players through trade/free agency.
- I'd sooner retain Polson than Simmo in 2021 - love Kade, but keeping him on a smaller list would be irresponsible and unfair to the blokes coming through.
- I want us to make an active play for Witherden, give him Willo's spot at HB, and push Willo up the ground.
- Williams impressed me last night, don't think we get him, but if Papley comes off the table then Zac is the one to go for.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Josh Kelly will be far easier to extract from GWS than what Papley will be from Sydney.

The difference between the two trades is that GWS have a plethora of young, elite midfielders struggling to get a game. They'll either lose Kelly or a handful of young stars taken in the first round of their respective drafts.

Sydney don't have the same amount of talent stockpiled to replace Papley.

This, coupled with the cap squeeze and GWS will result in some kind of fallout.

Kelly would cost a lot more in terms of picks and dollars. Don’t get me wrong I would prefer him if I had the choice but he would cost an absolute fortune.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Kelly would cost a lot more in terms of picks and dollars. Don’t get me wrong I would prefer him if I had the choice but he would cost an absolute fortune.

I can't really debate this because we won't know until a trade goes through, but my gut is telling me this will not be the case. The cost of Kelly and Papley will roughly be the same.

The hype around Papley in the media is unbelievable at the moment. Watching the game last night, it felt like the entire game was about Papley despite the fact he didn't kick a goal and only had 10 possessions.

All things equal, yes, Kelly would command a higher price than Papley. Not convinced this will be the case given the circumstances and strong upper hand Sydney will hold in negotiations.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I can't really debate this because we won't know until a trade goes through, but my gut is telling me this will not be the case. The cost of Kelly and Papley will roughly be the same.

The hype around Papley in the media is unbelievable at the moment. Watching the game last night, it felt like the entire game was about Papley despite the fact he didn't kick a goal and only had 10 possessions.

All things equal, yes, Kelly would command a higher price than Papley. Not convinced this will be the case given the circumstances and strong upper hand Sydney will hold in negotiations.

The difference Imo would be that there would be 10 vic clubs willing to move heaven and earth for Kelly and pay up. Papley has about 3-4 suitors at the most.

Kelly is what every single club in the league is looking for. Great user, runner and inside and out mid.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Josh Kelly has had injury problems and would command close to 1 million P/A on an open market..

At his age, not worth it. Tim Taranto on the other hand, yes please, come to Papa !!!

 

[Tjblues]

yeah it would be tough, but he is 24 year old who is earning exceptional money probably living in Bondi or Manley.. At that age girlfriends are hardly make or break especially if he has lived apart for the past 12 months... They may make a mature decision as a couple and go separate ways.

This is a pretty rubbish comment. Why should his relationship mean less to him than anyone else? Money? Laughable assertion