List Mgmt. 2022 AFL Draft & Rookie Draft

Remove this Banner Ad

Dumb question, but are combine results massively overrated?

Kid has a sub 3-second sprint time. That's nice, can he actually beat his opponent to the ball and get his hands on it?
Kid has a high vertical leap. Great, has he actually shown any signs off being an aerial threat?
Kid broke the agility record, should be perfect as a small forward. Amazing, but can he actually find separation from his opponent, does he have any goal nous?

Surely if you watch a player in junior comps, you can tell if he's quick, slow, agile, finds separation, has a good reach. The attributes themselves mean nothing. We are recruiting footballers, not athletes. Now I know we need to project where kids are going to end up, and the attributes help that. And that a bunch of non-athletic kids dominate at junior level but just aren't quick/fit enough for top level.

But if you find a kid who has good footy IQ, finds the ball, uses the ball well, makes good decisions, beats his opponent to the ball and is competitive, does it matter how high he can jump and what his agility time is?
Who are you talking to
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Dumb question, but are combine results massively overrated?

Kid has a sub 3-second sprint time. That's nice, can he actually beat his opponent to the ball and get his hands on it?
Kid has a high vertical leap. Great, has he actually shown any signs off being an aerial threat?
Kid broke the agility record, should be perfect as a small forward. Amazing, but can he actually find separation from his opponent, does he have any goal nous?

Surely if you watch a player in junior comps, you can tell if he's quick, slow, agile, finds separation, has a good reach. The attributes themselves mean nothing. We are recruiting footballers, not athletes. Now I know we need to project where kids are going to end up, and the attributes help that. And that a bunch of non-athletic kids dominate at junior level but just aren't quick/fit enough for top level.

But if you find a kid who has good footy IQ, finds the ball, uses the ball well, makes good decisions, beats his opponent to the ball and is competitive, does it matter how high he can jump and what his agility time is?
This is very true. Some thoughts that occur from it:

  • Philp tested very well at the combine which resulted in recruiters pushing him right up their rankings. Would be nice if we got to see him put together a few months of footy to see those attributes on display.
  • I found someone like a Will Hayward's demonstration of his vertical leap in the combine a helpful guide, coupled with his late season performances that he had something that would translate to AFL level.
  • Aaron Joseph's excellent agility didn't help him find the footy much but it did help him to keep up with players who could find it and annoy the hell out of them.
  • I can't find Paddy Dow's combine results anywhere but I wonder if his performance on the yo-yo test and 2km time trial would attract more scrutiny given how his career has panned out so far.
 
This is very true. Some thoughts that occur from it:

  • Philp tested very well at the combine which resulted in recruiters pushing him right up their rankings. Would be nice if we got to see him put together a few months of footy to see those attributes on display.
  • I found someone like a Will Hayward's demonstration of his vertical leap in the combine a helpful guide, coupled with his late season performances that he had something that would translate to AFL level.
  • Aaron Joseph's excellent agility didn't help him find the footy much but it did help him to keep up with players who could find it and annoy the hell out of them.
  • I can't find Paddy Dow's combine results anywhere but I wonder if his performance on the yo-yo test and 2km time trial would attract more scrutiny given how his career has panned out so far.

Dow didn't test due to a shoulder injury
 
I would be happy with Phillipou, sub 3 second sprint, 6 ish minute 2km, fights hard for front position, really clean hands

I'm a big fan too. Decent overhead, penetrating left foot (even when it's a clanger), hits the scoreboard, smooth mover, wins his own ball, and 191cm. My favourite part of his midfield game is that he waits to find a handball that puts his teammates into space rather than into a tackler. His forward craft and kicking into the forward line need some work but I'm encouraged by the fact that he has enough footy IQ to know when to bomb it long and when to look for a short pass in attacking transition. He could easily play fwd/mid for us Round 1 next year and still has massive upside.
 
Last edited:
Sorry mate - gotta disagree.

GWS have 12,15,18,19
Swans have 14,17

You gotta consider an opportunity to get 2 Top 20 picks if you can. 12 and 19 gets you 2 very good kids. 10 and 29 probably gets you 1. 14 and 17 gets you 2 very good kids also, maybe a bit better.

Disagree with your disagreement.

Top end talent is top end for a reason. Not sure why suppoters keep sprouting up this notion and getting seduced by "two very good players" in the top 20, especially considering our recent recruitment record. On what basis are you making this claim other than a pure hypothetical? What about the risk of recuriting 2 kids in the back end of top 20 picks who will likely have numerous question marks (hence they are not top 10..).

Just a quick analysis below for 2018 to 2021 draft around a best case scenario & worst case scenario (IMO) for 1 pick in the 5-10 range (left the top 5 out as we won't be picking there) v 2 in the 10-20 range.

2018
Best case: Ben King (6) v Butters (12) and Quaynor (13)
Worst case: Chayce Jones (9) / Tarryn Thomas (8) v Jackson Hately (14) and Ned McHenry (16)
Others picked in 5-10 range: Baily Smith, Connor Rozee, Nick Blakey

2019
Best case: Caleb Serong (8) v Kozzie Pickett (12) and Sam De Koning (19 - great pick)
Worst case: Liam Henry (9 - probably because we bid on him) v Kemp (17) and Philp (20) :disappointed:
Others picked in 5-10 range: Hayden Young, Tom Green

2020
Best case: Grainger-Barass (6) v Heath Chapman (14) and Ollie Henry (17)
Worst case: Nik Cox (8) v Conor Stone (15) and Ryan Angwin (18)
Others picked in 5-10 range: Archie Perkins, Elijah Hollands

2021
Best case: Josh Rachele (6) / Josh Gibcus (9) can't split them v Wangeneen-Milera (11) and Ben Hobbs (13)
Worst case: Jye Amiss (9) v Leek Aleer (15) and Kai Lohmann (20)
Others picked in 5-10 range: Gibcus, Ward

Based on that it's pretty clear to me we need to maximise our shot at the top 10, not trade further back. Whilst you can get some gems if you nail a pick in the 11-20 range (e.g. De Koning) more often than not the risk of butchering them is much higher.

Even to come out as winners with 2 picks in the 11-20 range you generally need one on the cusp of the top 10 (11-13) to pick up a player just shy of the top 10 like Butters, Pickett, Hobbs. Certainly not many winners with what you are proposing by going back to 18 and 19.

I can see why supporters get seudced by the "multiple picks in the top 20" and there is a time for it when you are trying to build ground up but not for us in our current state. Absolutely not worth the risk.

Trade up which is what Austin seems to be wanting to do.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

I would be happy with Phillipou, sub 3 second sprint, 6 ish minute 2km, fights hard for front position, really clean hands
Add to this that he knows how to win the ball, uses it well and has the versability to play forward and kick goals. Averaged 28 disposals at SANFL u/18s with a mix of contested/uncontested, 1.5goals, 6 marks, 5.5 tackles and 144 ranking points. Great size and almost the youngest in the draft

On 2201116PG using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
? Why is is it a trade down?? They have 4 picks in the 12-19 range. 10 is somewhat more attractive than 12 for a trade up. Top 10 is a very convincing argument in a trade. 3 and 10 gets you 1 I believe.

Having said that, I don’t see why GWS need 1. Their main target is Cadman. I see NM taking a mid when they lose JHF. WC may take Busslinger or a mid also.

I didn’t word my original post very well, I would have thought they would be better off trading 12 and 19 to get up the order and then even trading 15 and 18.

Dont get me wrong, I like the idea from our perspective.
 
Disagree with your disagreement.

Top end talent is top end for a reason. Not sure why suppoters keep sprouting up this notion and getting seduced by "two very good players" in the top 20, especially considering our recent recruitment record. On what basis are you making this claim other than a pure hypothetical? What about the risk of recuriting 2 kids in the back end of top 20 picks who will likely have numerous question marks (hence they are not top 10..).

Just a quick analysis below for 2018 to 2021 draft around a best case scenario & worst case scenario (IMO) for 1 pick in the 5-10 range (left the top 5 out as we won't be picking there) v 2 in the 10-20 range.

2018
Best case: Ben King (6) v Butters (12) and Quaynor (13)
Worst case: Chayce Jones (9) / Tarryn Thomas (8) v Jackson Hately (14) and Ned McHenry (16)
Others picked in 5-10 range: Baily Smith, Connor Rozee, Nick Blakey

2019
Best case: Caleb Serong (8) v Kozzie Pickett (12) and Sam De Koning (19 - great pick)
Worst case: Liam Henry (9 - probably because we bid on him) v Kemp (17) and Philp (20) :disappointed:
Others picked in 5-10 range: Hayden Young, Tom Green

2020
Best case: Grainger-Barass (6) v Heath Chapman (14) and Ollie Henry (17)
Worst case: Nik Cox (8) v Conor Stone (15) and Ryan Angwin (18)
Others picked in 5-10 range: Archie Perkins, Elijah Hollands

2021
Best case: Josh Rachele (6) / Josh Gibcus (9) can't split them v Wangeneen-Milera (11) and Ben Hobbs (13)
Worst case: Jye Amiss (9) v Leek Aleer (15) and Kai Lohmann (20)
Others picked in 5-10 range: Gibcus, Ward

Based on that it's pretty clear to me we need to maximise our shot at the top 10, not trade further back. Whilst you can get some gems if you nail a pick in the 11-20 range (e.g. De Koning) more often than not the risk of butchering them is much higher.

Even to come out as winners with 2 picks in the 11-20 range you generally need one on the cusp of the top 10 (11-13) to pick up a player just shy of the top 10 like Butters, Pickett, Hobbs. Certainly not many winners with what you are proposing by going back to 18 and 19.

I can see why supporters get seudced by the "multiple picks in the top 20" and there is a time for it when you are trying to build ground up but not for us in our current state. Absolutely not worth the risk.

Trade up which is what Austin seems to be wanting to do.

I like the idea of your post but I keep getting stuck on your 2021, worst case, Jye Amiss, the kid looks great.
 
All good, take sheezel at 1 and Cadman at 2 if they get it. North should be going for a KPF, maybe they are keen on Sheezel and Jefferson, but you don’t let a team jump you and take a player you want, doesn’t make any sense.

As I said, they like Cadman, but prefer Sheezel more

Part of the deal for North to have picks 2 and 3, was giving up pick 1, which is a smart move

North have Larkey, and 3 ruckmen, all of which are decent resting forwards. Jones, Xerri and Comben who I rare the most

So the get Sheezel and then they can either take Wardlaw, Clark or Busslinger

I think it's a good strategy for North, as in any draft, there is never a clear standout for the number 1 pick
 
I like the idea of your post but I keep getting stuck on your 2021, worst case, Jye Amiss, the kid looks great.

Well that’s kind of the point - that at worst (excluding players yet to play a game) you still get a highly promising player. Outside of one or two bowler picks the floor for our pick range is pretty damn high.
 
Just my uneducated opinion - but if we’re interested, he’ll be there at 10. He’s not elite at anything, if anything, to me, he’s a tweener. Too heavy and slow for a mid or high HF. Too small for a KP. He’s a U18 bully. Just not getting the hype.

Agreed, me either. If we want the Mid/Fwd we're better of trading up a few places to land Philippou IMO.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

List Mgmt. 2022 AFL Draft & Rookie Draft

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top