Prediction 2022 Best 22 Teams and discussion

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Dockeroo said:
Lets not get too carried away with how good Colyer was last year. I remember him being ok, and that’s about it. He had a number of pretty ordinary performances and has a habit of brain farts such as ridiculously playing on from marks and taking daft advantages when the free kick was already awarded in front of goal which happened more than once last year.
I think what is helping him in peoples minds on here is that he was expected to be absolutely sh*t at the start of last season by most fans, but then wasn’t as bad as everyone expected which was a pleasant surprise. The expectation bar was low and in fairness to him he turned in some spirited displays and looked like he cared for the most part (not something that can be said about everyone unfortunately). Seems like a decent bloke too and a good pro around the club so he deserved his one year deal.
However if we are serious about finals and making an impact on the comp this season, Trav should be spending the vast majority of his weekends playing at peel
Click to expand...
I'd rate him the same as you but he was clearly best 22 last year and the spot will likely be his until someone pushes him out. Hopefully a draftee in the first couple of rounds does just that
 
I really hope that Johnson turns out to be the real deal, but surely he slid to pick 21 for a reason? Leaving aside the freo goggles for a moment, why did he slide I wonder? I don’t believe for one second he told clubs he didn’t want to move interstate either. He wouldn’t have been devastated at the end of the first draft night in that case.
I mean, if the eagles thought he would be anything like David Mundy or Adam Cerra in future (who many freo fans think MJ will replace) then there’s no way in hell they would have let him past pick 13? They clearly don’t think he’s in that bracket of player at all.
Just a bit nervous peoples expectations are too high because he was a perceived slider from the top 10.
The facts are that he’s a pick 21, he’s not a top 10 pick and never was. He’s an early second rounder in real terms, and I’ll be judging him based on what you’d expect from an early second rounder, which to me is to become a solid role player in a successful team. History says the odds of him becoming an AA level talent are very slim.
The last 15 players taken at pick 21:
Max Holmes
Thomson Dow
Ely Smith
Oscar Allen
Will Haywood
Ben Mackay
Hugh Goddard
Jarman Impey
Nathan Hvorat
Tom Mitchell
Jed Lamb
Ryan Bastinac
Hayden Ballantyne
Addam Maric
Gavin Urqhuart

As you can see, a very mixed bag.
Allen, Mitchell and Ballantyne the pick of the bunch and you’d be thrilled if he was anywhere as impactful as those three.
 
Dockeroo said:
I really hope that Johnson turns out to be the real deal, but surely he slid to pick 21 for a reason? Leaving aside the freo goggles for a moment, why did he slide I wonder? I don’t believe for one second he told clubs he didn’t want to move interstate either. He wouldn’t have been devastated at the end of the first draft night in that case.
I mean, if the eagles thought he would be anything like David Mundy or Adam Cerra in future (who many freo fans think MJ will replace) then there’s no way in hell they would have let him past pick 13? They clearly don’t think he’s in that bracket of player at all.
Just a bit nervous peoples expectations are too high because he was a perceived slider from the top 10.
The facts are that he’s a pick 21, he’s not a top 10 pick and never was. He’s an early second rounder in real terms, and I’ll be judging him based on what you’d expect from an early second rounder, which to me is to become a solid role player in a successful team. History says the odds of him becoming an AA level talent are very slim.
The last 15 players taken at pick 21:
Max Holmes
Thomson Dow
Ely Smith
Oscar Allen
Will Haywood
Ben Mackay
Hugh Goddard
Jarman Impey
Nathan Hvorat
Tom Mitchell
Jed Lamb
Ryan Bastinac
Hayden Ballantyne
Addam Maric
Gavin Urqhuart

As you can see, a very mixed bag.
Allen, Mitchell and Ballantyne the pick of the bunch and you’d be thrilled if he was anywhere as impactful as those three.
Click to expand...
Looking at historic results at specific picks is such a sobering process haha
 

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Snuffaluphagus said:
Looking at historic results at specific picks is such a sobering process haha
Click to expand...
Yeah it’s actually one of the better lists of players for that range of pick! Even the likes of Jarman impey and Will Hayward are decent AFL players and would be a good result at pick 21.
Really once you go beyond pick 12 or so, it starts to get very hit and miss.
 
Dockeroo said:
Lets not get too carried away with how good Colyer was last year. I remember him being ok, and that’s about it. He had a number of pretty ordinary performances and has a habit of brain farts such as ridiculously playing on from marks and taking daft advantages when the free kick was already awarded in front of goal which happened more than once last year.
I think what is helping him in peoples minds on here is that he was expected to be absolutely sh*t at the start of last season by most fans, but then wasn’t as bad as everyone expected which was a pleasant surprise. The expectation bar was low and in fairness to him he turned in some spirited displays and looked like he cared for the most part (not something that can be said about everyone unfortunately). Seems like a decent bloke too and a good pro around the club so he deserved his one year deal.
However if we are serious about finals and making an impact on the comp this season, Trav should be spending the vast majority of his weekends playing at peel
Click to expand...
The thing is there are 3-4 other players who were worse than Colyer who were also getting games. We need to replace all of them before he gets dropped.
 
Dockeroo said:
I really hope that Johnson turns out to be the real deal, but surely he slid to pick 21 for a reason? Leaving aside the freo goggles for a moment, why did he slide I wonder? I don’t believe for one second he told clubs he didn’t want to move interstate either. He wouldn’t have been devastated at the end of the first draft night in that case.
I mean, if the eagles thought he would be anything like David Mundy or Adam Cerra in future (who many freo fans think MJ will replace) then there’s no way in hell they would have let him past pick 13? They clearly don’t think he’s in that bracket of player at all.
Just a bit nervous peoples expectations are too high because he was a perceived slider from the top 10.
The facts are that he’s a pick 21, he’s not a top 10 pick and never was. He’s an early second rounder in real terms, and I’ll be judging him based on what you’d expect from an early second rounder, which to me is to become a solid role player in a successful team. History says the odds of him becoming an AA level talent are very slim.
The last 15 players taken at pick 21:
Max Holmes
Thomson Dow
Ely Smith
Oscar Allen
Will Haywood
Ben Mackay
Hugh Goddard
Jarman Impey
Nathan Hvorat
Tom Mitchell
Jed Lamb
Ryan Bastinac
Hayden Ballantyne
Addam Maric
Gavin Urqhuart

As you can see, a very mixed bag.
Allen, Mitchell and Ballantyne the pick of the bunch and you’d be thrilled if he was anywhere as impactful as those three.
Click to expand...


Interesting names taken at 21**
Although it was another Covid interrupted season, it seemed like a really strong draft ?
The top 4 were locked away,
then 5 to 13 was full of talent that could have gone anywhere. After that a lot of the picks were needs based. Eg Leek to GWS, Lohman to brissy and Chesser to eagles. A pacey flanker/winger, exactly what they need.
Sydney taking Sheldrick was a shock, but they always find diamonds in the rough so he’s probably gonna be a gun.

If you look at it like that I don’t think it’s that big a slide or would be knock. Either way hope he carves!
 
Last edited:
Dayts said:
Interesting names taken at 21**
Although it was another Covid interrupted season, it seemed like a really strong draft ?
The top 4 were locked away,
then 5 to 13 was full of talent that could have gone anywhere. After that a lot of the picks were needs based. Eg Leek to GWS, Lohman to brissy and Chesser to eagles. A pacey flanker/winger, exactly what they need.
Sydney taking Sheldrick was a shock, but they always find diamonds in the rough so he’s probably gonna be a gun.

If you look at it like that I don’t think it’s that big a slide or would be knock. Either way hope he carves!
Click to expand...
I think his contested game may have hindered his position.
Looks like a really good winger to start his career.
But doesn’t look like an inside player, at this stage and that’s what recruiters have to predict.
I wouldn’t worry too much because Simon Black was overlooked by the WA clubs😳
He has good kicking skills, does most things well, and if he works on his game ie like have something to prove, might see him really explode.
I’d also expect him to play well against WC😜
I don’t think there is any pressure to compare him to Chesser, but Sinn on the other hand?
Also I’d like to say no one thought Mundy was destined for the midfield.
Freo sort of started a trend with big midfielders, and that wasn’t the reason we lost a GF.
 
Dockeroo said:
I really hope that Johnson turns out to be the real deal, but surely he slid to pick 21 for a reason? Leaving aside the freo goggles for a moment, why did he slide I wonder? I don’t believe for one second he told clubs he didn’t want to move interstate either. He wouldn’t have been devastated at the end of the first draft night in that case.
I mean, if the eagles thought he would be anything like David Mundy or Adam Cerra in future (who many freo fans think MJ will replace) then there’s no way in hell they would have let him past pick 13? They clearly don’t think he’s in that bracket of player at all.
Just a bit nervous peoples expectations are too high because he was a perceived slider from the top 10.
The facts are that he’s a pick 21, he’s not a top 10 pick and never was. He’s an early second rounder in real terms, and I’ll be judging him based on what you’d expect from an early second rounder, which to me is to become a solid role player in a successful team. History says the odds of him becoming an AA level talent are very slim.
The last 15 players taken at pick 21:
Max Holmes
Thomson Dow
Ely Smith
Oscar Allen
Will Haywood
Ben Mackay
Hugh Goddard
Jarman Impey
Nathan Hvorat
Tom Mitchell
Jed Lamb
Ryan Bastinac
Hayden Ballantyne
Addam Maric
Gavin Urqhuart

As you can see, a very mixed bag.
Allen, Mitchell and Ballantyne the pick of the bunch and you’d be thrilled if he was anywhere as impactful as those three.
Click to expand...

It would only have needed Johnson to have made it clear he wasn't staying over east beyond the two year contract and then would request a trade back to WA and West Coast believing that Freo would trade out pick #19 for him to last to their two second round picks.

I expect that if we had #6, #7 and #8 we would have taken the same three players with our first three selections in the draft.
 
Dockeroo said:
Yeah it’s actually one of the better lists of players for that range of pick! Even the likes of Jarman impey and Will Hayward are decent AFL players and would be a good result at pick 21.
Really once you go beyond pick 12 or so, it starts to get very hit and miss.
Click to expand...
How does one both hit and miss?
 
If we're being properly critical, there is next to zero value in trying to assess whether one player will be successful on the basis of the exact pick he was taken in that year's draft. Obviously, there are macro trends that clubs create based on all the information they have available so setting some expectations based on round taken has some merit. Going into the micro analysis of a player going pick 10 versus pick 21 is different.

Every year is completely different with a whole new draft group of unique players and clubs' priorities changing depending on their performance and then list makeup. It's a fun exercise but it's the old correlation vs causation issue.

The argument I would mount for MJ sliding is more of a perfect storm situation - interstate clubs were wary of go-home and the grouping of similar players was very tight such that they felt comfortable siding with the local product each time. I understood that his interviews had led clubs to believe he was incredibly close to his family so while he may not have come out and said he wouldn't go interstate, they read between the lines and decided the risk was too high for a first-round pick. That would explain why he was upset on draft night - 18-year-old kids aren't well known for understanding the full consequences of what they say and do.

I like focusing more on where the outside noise think a player will go - this is largely agnostic to the club requirements and MJ was universally considered good enough to be taken in the first round. The fact that he didn't actually get picked up in Rd 1 is neither here nor there, for mine.
 
Just rewatched Johnson's highlights video. Doesn't have elite pace but seems to always have time and space to dispose of the ball without getting called holding the ball. Reminds me of another rising star on our list - who was pick 19 so around the same mark, but in hindsight was worth a much much higher pick ;)
 
CapitalA said:
The thing is there are 3-4 other players who were worse than Colyer who were also getting games. We need to replace all of them before he gets dropped.
Click to expand...

My view on Colyer 12 months ago: 'delist as soon as possible'

My view on Colyer now: 'he's handy depth and reportedly good for culture so happy for him to him to have a spot on the list, but we're not making finals if he's best 22 with everyone fit'

If he gets 6-7 games this year (especially with COVD meaning all teams are needing to use their whole list) then I'm fine with that and I am certain there are many many worse players on lists around the comp.

At the moment I only have Banfield in the 'delist as soon as possible' bucket - if we are thinking he is a forward, but hopeful he may be valuable depth as a run with player.
 
Dockeroo said:
I really hope that Johnson turns out to be the real deal, but surely he slid to pick 21 for a reason? Leaving aside the freo goggles for a moment, why did he slide I wonder? I don’t believe for one second he told clubs he didn’t want to move interstate either. He wouldn’t have been devastated at the end of the first draft night in that case.
I mean, if the eagles thought he would be anything like David Mundy or Adam Cerra in future (who many freo fans think MJ will replace) then there’s no way in hell they would have let him past pick 13? They clearly don’t think he’s in that bracket of player at all.
Just a bit nervous peoples expectations are too high because he was a perceived slider from the top 10.
The facts are that he’s a pick 21, he’s not a top 10 pick and never was. He’s an early second rounder in real terms, and I’ll be judging him based on what you’d expect from an early second rounder, which to me is to become a solid role player in a successful team. History says the odds of him becoming an AA level talent are very slim.
The last 15 players taken at pick 21:
Max Holmes
Thomson Dow
Ely Smith
Oscar Allen
Will Haywood
Ben Mackay
Hugh Goddard
Jarman Impey
Nathan Hvorat
Tom Mitchell
Jed Lamb
Ryan Bastinac
Hayden Ballantyne
Addam Maric
Gavin Urqhuart

As you can see, a very mixed bag.
Allen, Mitchell and Ballantyne the pick of the bunch and you’d be thrilled if he was anywhere as impactful as those three.
Click to expand...


Spot on. He got hyped up on Bigfooty following his combine results because prior to that his athleticism was the big query and even the knock by some. The recruiters seemingly always had him outside the first round.
Hopefully he can slot in as one of the better players to be taken around that mark but realistically he'll be slightly better than the average for that draft range imo, which'll do me fine.
 

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BarbieITFC said:
My view on Colyer 12 months ago: 'delist as soon as possible'

My view on Colyer now: 'he's handy depth and reportedly good for culture so happy for him to him to have a spot on the list, but we're not making finals if he's best 22 with everyone fit'

If he gets 6-7 games this year (especially with COVD meaning all teams are needing to use their whole list) then I'm fine with that and I am certain there are many many worse players on lists around the comp.

At the moment I only have Banfield in the 'delist as soon as possible' bucket - if we are thinking he is a forward, but hopeful he may be valuable depth as a run with player.
Click to expand...


I rated Colyer the same this time last year, but his season was good. I agree with you on the expectations we should have on him for this season, but if we're seriously progressing, this needs to be his final year.
 
The club seemed pretty clear about it's intention/willingness to trade pick 19. Until Johnson was still available that is.

By keeping it and drafting Johnson they also burned any strategy it may have had for securing Motlop, and as pointed out, preferred him to Sonsie amongst others.

There's no doubt they rate Johnson highly.
 
BarbieITFC said:
My view on Colyer 12 months ago: 'delist as soon as possible'

My view on Colyer now: 'he's handy depth and reportedly good for culture so happy for him to him to have a spot on the list, but we're not making finals if he's best 22 with everyone fit'

If he gets 6-7 games this year (especially with COVD meaning all teams are needing to use their whole list) then I'm fine with that and I am certain there are many many worse players on lists around the comp.

At the moment I only have Banfield in the 'delist as soon as possible' bucket - if we are thinking he is a forward, but hopeful he may be valuable depth as a run with player.
Click to expand...

I had the same thoughts on Banfield and he felt lucky to get another contract.

Thats why it was so intriguing when Gerard Healy was such a fan of him even before that game in Tasmania.

All I can say is that when you watch him in match practice he is one of our best options in the forward line. He presents and marks well and has one of the best kicks into the forward fifty.

With Sturt and Tracey not doing much at training, don’t be surprised if Banfield plays games early in the year again.

I think he just maybe a better option than I give him credit for.
 
Dockeroo said:
I really hope that Johnson turns out to be the real deal, but surely he slid to pick 21 for a reason? Leaving aside the freo goggles for a moment, why did he slide I wonder? I don’t believe for one second he told clubs he didn’t want to move interstate either. He wouldn’t have been devastated at the end of the first draft night in that case.
I mean, if the eagles thought he would be anything like David Mundy or Adam Cerra in future (who many freo fans think MJ will replace) then there’s no way in hell they would have let him past pick 13? They clearly don’t think he’s in that bracket of player at all.
Just a bit nervous peoples expectations are too high because he was a perceived slider from the top 10.
The facts are that he’s a pick 21, he’s not a top 10 pick and never was. He’s an early second rounder in real terms, and I’ll be judging him based on what you’d expect from an early second rounder, which to me is to become a solid role player in a successful team. History says the odds of him becoming an AA level talent are very slim.
The last 15 players taken at pick 21:
Max Holmes
Thomson Dow
Ely Smith
Oscar Allen
Will Haywood
Ben Mackay
Hugh Goddard
Jarman Impey
Nathan Hvorat
Tom Mitchell
Jed Lamb
Ryan Bastinac
Hayden Ballantyne
Addam Maric
Gavin Urqhuart

As you can see, a very mixed bag.
Allen, Mitchell and Ballantyne the pick of the bunch and you’d be thrilled if he was anywhere as impactful as those three.
Click to expand...
Hawks considered Johnson at pick 6 then went with the local Ward.

Freo considered at
 
freoextra said:
I had the same thoughts on Banfield and he felt lucky to get another contract.

Thats why it was so intriguing when Gerard Healy was such a fan of him even before that game in Tasmania.

All I can say is that when you watch him in match practice he is one of our best options in the forward line. He presents and marks well and has one of the best kicks into the forward fifty.

With Sturt and Tracey not doing much at training, don’t be surprised if Banfield plays games early in the year again.

I think he just maybe a better option than I give him credit for.
Click to expand...
Thanks freoextra.

It's posts like these that bring me back down to earth during the preseason from the unrealistic, foolish and irrational heights I set for the team, before the first bounce.

I never learn my lesson.
 
freoextra said:
I had the same thoughts on Banfield and he felt lucky to get another contract.

Thats why it was so intriguing when Gerard Healy was such a fan of him even before that game in Tasmania.

All I can say is that when you watch him in match practice he is one of our best options in the forward line. He presents and marks well and has one of the best kicks into the forward fifty.

With Sturt and Tracey not doing much at training, don’t be surprised if Banfield plays games early in the year again.

I think he just maybe a better option than I give him credit for.
Click to expand...
We have a pretty broad band of players such as Banfield, Blakeley, Acres, Hughes, Colyer, Crowden, and others who seem viable but not first choice or locked in long-term. We've just needed too many of them too regularly.
 
Dockeroo said:
I really hope that Johnson turns out to be the real deal, but surely he slid to pick 21 for a reason? Leaving aside the freo goggles for a moment, why did he slide I wonder? I don’t believe for one second he told clubs he didn’t want to move interstate either. He wouldn’t have been devastated at the end of the first draft night in that case.
I mean, if the eagles thought he would be anything like David Mundy or Adam Cerra in future (who many freo fans think MJ will replace) then there’s no way in hell they would have let him past pick 13? They clearly don’t think he’s in that bracket of player at all.
Just a bit nervous peoples expectations are too high because he was a perceived slider from the top 10.
The facts are that he’s a pick 21, he’s not a top 10 pick and never was. He’s an early second rounder in real terms, and I’ll be judging him based on what you’d expect from an early second rounder, which to me is to become a solid role player in a successful team. History says the odds of him becoming an AA level talent are very slim.
The last 15 players taken at pick 21:
Max Holmes
Thomson Dow
Ely Smith
Oscar Allen
Will Haywood
Ben Mackay
Hugh Goddard
Jarman Impey
Nathan Hvorat
Tom Mitchell
Jed Lamb
Ryan Bastinac
Hayden Ballantyne
Addam Maric
Gavin Urqhuart

As you can see, a very mixed bag.
Allen, Mitchell and Ballantyne the pick of the bunch and you’d be thrilled if he was anywhere as impactful as those three.
Click to expand...
He slid because there was a premium on key position players. Nearly all the spots he slid, the club took either a key back, medium back, pacey wingman, half forward etc. The only other mid taken in that range was Hobbs and even he is not like for like.
 

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