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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
The thing is though that we don't really need a lot of players. Our list build is going well, we are not a club that is trying to rebuild so adding an a extra draft pick is almost pointless. Better to go with the higher pick and only get one player who in theory will be of a better quality than two lower picks who in theory won't be as good.
If I were North I would be trading down to bring in more picks as they need more players coming in and would be better off with two B graders than one A grader but we are not quite in that position.
Thanks for this, very informative for those of us not in the loop on this year's draft. Will report you if we pick someone you haven't namedFirst topic: who will we take at our first pick....
We can agree (I think) that we can definitely rule out: Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Mackenzie
Pretty likely gone: Phillipou, Ginbey, Busslinger, (I'd be happy to take any of these if they slipped through)
After that possibilities include: Hollands, Hustwaite, Allan, Hewett, Hotton, Konstanty, Jones, Jefferson, Hayes, Weddle, Hotton, George, Cowan.
How confident can we be that our first pick will be one of these names? 90%? 99%?
Of these, are there any that we rule out? If so, why?
I think Konstanty and Jones may be good players and they could play a role we could use but they are not priority needs and I doubt they will be best available so I'm tempted to rule them out.
I have fluctuated in my feelings about Jefferson and Hayes: they are both Vic Metro kids and I was a bit concerned when I saw that Hayes was unable to finish the time trial. But they both fit our needs well. Jefferson is a KPF and they're hard to get and an area of need for us plus he's a different type to Logan McDonald (more of a marking target). I'd be happy for us to take Jefferson if he gets to us. Hayes offers genuine height (199 cm), speed, and has a December birthday. Somehow I can't see us recruiting Hayes, and I think Jefferson will probably be gone. However, if we do draft one of them, I'll back our recruiters to have made a savvy choice and be relieved that a key position need is hopefully taken care of for the forseeable future.
Of the rest I'm leaning to Hustwaite or Allan - I hope we get one of those two. And I think at least one of them (or Jefferson, or one of those I said would pretty likely be gone) will be available.
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Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in
1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)
2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.
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What do you think?
I see West Coast as another option for a pick trade.. Im pretty confidant that they will be looking to bring in as much talent asap. There might also be a WA draftee or someone West Coasts wants still available at p17, but likely gone at their p20.. Hewett, Busslinger, Allan - All WA kids tipped to go p10-20.Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in
1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)
2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.
Waiting for the typical WTF first round pick we usually do. First one will be predicable, second is where we might get inventive as our next pick won't be until the late 30's after you adjust for F/S pics etc.
If we got Hustwaite, then traded picks to land Barnett or Keeler, then got Gruzewski, I would probably get banned for hubris.First topic: who will we take at our first pick....
We can agree (I think) that we can definitely rule out: Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Mackenzie
Pretty likely gone: Phillipou, Ginbey, Busslinger, (I'd be happy to take any of these if they slipped through)
After that possibilities include: Hollands, Hustwaite, Allan, Hewett, Hotton, Konstanty, Jones, Jefferson, Hayes, Weddle, Hotton, George, Cowan.
How confident can we be that our first pick will be one of these names? 90%? 99%?
Of these, are there any that we rule out? If so, why?
I think Konstanty and Jones may be good players and they could play a role we could use but they are not priority needs and I doubt they will be best available so I'm tempted to rule them out.
I have fluctuated in my feelings about Jefferson and Hayes: they are both Vic Metro kids and I was a bit concerned when I saw that Hayes was unable to finish the time trial. But they both fit our needs well. Jefferson is a KPF and they're hard to get and an area of need for us plus he's a different type to Logan McDonald (more of a marking target). I'd be happy for us to take Jefferson if he gets to us. Hayes offers genuine height (199 cm), speed, and has a December birthday. Somehow I can't see us recruiting Hayes, and I think Jefferson will probably be gone. However, if we do draft one of them, I'll back our recruiters to have made a savvy choice and be relieved that a key position need is hopefully taken care of for the forseeable future.
Of the rest I'm leaning to Hustwaite or Allan - I hope we get one of those two. And I think at least one of them (or Jefferson, or one of those I said would pretty likely be gone) will be available.
****
Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in
1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)
2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.
****
What do you think?
The thing is though that we don't really need a lot of players. Our list build is going well, we are not a club that is trying to rebuild so adding an a extra draft pick is almost pointless. Better to go with the higher pick and only get one player who in theory will be of a better quality than two lower picks who in theory won't be as good.
If I were North I would be trading down to bring in more picks as they need more players coming in and would be better off with two B graders than one A grader but we are not quite in that position.
In 2023
We have clearly and the other kid (name escapes me) and possibly King in the rookie back end of the draft and the have the utility kid - gloater (I think that’s his name)
2024
We potentially have the big ruckman 204 cm or 206cm and we have Cochrane - 194cm as a 16 year old forward … this could be top 10 top 15 … but obviously 2 years out and trying to predict growth and development is essentially wishful thinking
Well the thing we have to remember is just cause they are from academy we don’t have to draft them if they don’t add something to the teamWhile we do have two Academy Kids next year who do look promising and one of them is an inside mid we can't rely on that as like you mentioned last year we all thought King was a sure thing to be drafted and now there is basically no chance he will be.
WelcomeHi Team
Long time reader (several years) first time contributor
Finally joined the forum and got around to it
So I been thinking about this draft …
In my opinion their are several ways we can go about this
Firstly I will start with the players I like
In no order
Cowan, Allen Humphrey Knobel Barnett George Edwards bradtke
I am not sold on hustwaite
Keeler I like but I would not draft him
I think this draft is far more important for us than many think
This is the draft we either get the talls right or we get the impact X factor players right
Cowan Allen Humphrey George can be impact players for us and can add a point of difference in a year or two
Allen could be that big athletic wing like a Blicavs in some ways - few years back Blicavs and Goodes use to have great battles … and maybe Allen can develop more into a current Blicavs minus the part time Ruck
Keeler could be a less talented buddy - that’s Keeler ceiling … obviously buddy is once a generational player .. and was drafted much higher and was more developed and advanced at 18 .. but Keeler has a massive high ceiling at worse he is an upgrade from Amertey
I think Edwards will be tried as a rookie this year
Bradtke could be a bolter for rookie - good size and speed for modern day game - right age profile and presents as a very different type of forward to Logan, once developed could be a very good second or third foil - potentially very handy rookie pick up
Plus being from NSW - it adds something their instead of taking a punt on a Vic or WA or SA boy at a similar level of achievement and similar stage of development
Long term i would say Syd should aim to have at least a third to 40 % of the list nsw born players and spread across each position Eg mids talls forward back etc … that would be a ideal scenario
Knobel I like simply put - he has height and size - he is massive - you can’t train that - I think their is a outside possibility we take 3 rookies or have like Knobel Edwards as rookies and bradtke as cat B (not sure if that’s possible - don’t know how long in the game bradtke has been) - we might even take bradtke mid season
Barnett while the most advanced ruckman and a possibility for us - would be up against X factors and unique game breaking players who might add something dynamic to our exisiting time - for example George - he is a top 10 talent according to most but due to injuries could not play much - I would not be surprised if George goes top 20 and we are one of the clubs who could take a punt on him for 2024 onwards ..
I can't really see either of these happening. It's not worth it for Essendon or Collingwood to give up a whole mid 20s pick just to upgrade a pick 5 spots. We'd have to give up 42 or our future 3rd at least.Second topic: pick trades I'd be interested in
1. Trading our second first rounder to Essendon for pick 22 and their future second (and maybe throwing in a little something extra to get the deal over the line)
2. Trading our second first rounder to Collingwood for their picks 25 & 27 (apparently they're interested to get a pick inside the top 20). Then we could hopefully get one of Keeler or Barnett and some other likely type that slides through e.g. Cowan, Weddle, Konstanty, Gruzewski, George.
****
What do you think?
Clearly is currently rated in 30's might come down if he improves next year. Might not.Well the thing we have to remember is just cause they are from academy we don’t have to draft them if they don’t add something to the team
I would not be surprised if we don’t draft Clearly or Cabor (I think) unless we trade current players or long term injury / retirements
At some point their will be a situation where a top 30 academy kid is available and we don’t draft him because he is not required
Hi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...Hustwaite I believe will have potential to be a very good average player
But I don’t think he will add much to us and I don’t know if 15 is good place to draft him when at 15 you could pick someone who adds real difference Eg Keeler Cowan (2025 best 2022) Allen George (2025 possible best 2022)
As much as I like Cunningham and as much as he has been a loyal servant - if we take a Cowan or George
I cant see Cunningham surviving in 2025 - even next year he will be lucky to get 10 12 games
Cowan gives that speed power BUT has size and greater scope and flexibility - same with George potentially
Keeler by end of next year could be far more advanced than amertey
Is bigger and could be a good replacement for Reid
Next year one of Reid or Buddy is gone
So for us either draft now or trade
2025 - we could be after Saints King
And that could play a role in what we draft now
McLean I am a fan of - he is that big one grab player - poor man’s Hawkins … if only he was as Mobil as Hawkins
One on One in a marking contest he is very very hard to beat - that’s unique
Not used much in the modern game
But if you put it to him for a grab one on one in the goal square - he usually clunks those - that’s Been demonstrated a few times over the last 2 years and he has improved his mobility alot - he is a clever player with his body what let’s him down is he is not as athletic as he needs to be for the modern game or set up / style
But depending on the opposition defence and other forwards - he could have a place
Amartey is more gifted than McLean athletically but has done less in games at crucial moments - his rucking is not impactful .. so Keeler could be an upgrade to Amartey
Hi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...
Hustwaite. Not sure why you say that. He seems to have a bit of the Pendles about him, creating time and space, and he hits targets time and again. I'm sure KB will be very sure about what he does or doesn't offer as he may fall right on our sweet spot.
Agree with you 100% on Allan. Don't know about George with so little recent exposed form.
Keeler is an interesting one as the "experts" vary quite a bit on where he should go. I certainly would not be unhappy if we took him though my preference is for Barnett as I see that as the greater need.
I too am a fan of McLean. He may not have the burst speed but he has a fair tank.
Who do you like with our third?
Wouldn't be going Keeler with our first. But I'd be happy moving our 2nd (pick ~20) out by a few spots, to bring our 41 up, then picking Keeler up with the slightly downgraded pick (mid 20s ish). If we went up enough with pick 41 (maybe also a pick swap with a future), we might be able to get Gruzewski.Yeah I like Hustwaite, actually have a feeling he'll be the bolter and won't be available. Of all the talents in that say 9-16 range he has the biggest scope. I agree with your last post Oliver Hollands is the safest pick but he would be one I pass on. If Hustwaite is unavailable then I'd go Allen. I feel at 14 we need to take one with X factor, of course assuming Jed Busslinger is off the board and I assume he is, doubt he's lasting past the Dogs at worst. Jefferson isn't getting past Melbourne that to me seems an obvious pick for them. Do not want Keeler at all, I hope he's taken before our pick so I don't need to worry about it.
Hi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...
Hustwaite. Not sure why you say that. He seems to have a bit of the Pendles about him, creating time and space, and he hits targets time and again. I'm sure KB will be very sure about what he does or doesn't offer as he may fall right on our sweet spot.
Agree with you 100% on Allan. Don't know about George with so little recent exposed form.
Keeler is an interesting one as the "experts" vary quite a bit on where he should go. I certainly would not be unhappy if we took him though my preference is for Barnett as I see that as the greater need.
I too am a fan of McLean. He may not have the burst speed but he has a fair tank.
Who do you like with our third?
Wouldn't be going Keeler with our first. But I'd be happy moving our 2nd (pick ~20) out by a few spots, to bring our 41 up, then picking Keeler up with the slightly downgraded pick (mid 20s ish). If we went up enough with pick 41 (maybe also a pick swap with a future), we might be able to get Gruzewski.
Agree on Hollands. I'd be OK with Allan with the second 1st rounder, I think he'll probably still be there. But if we rate him, wouldn't complain about getting him with the 1st.
Or LemmeyHi Shaq and welcome. Lots to like in that post, you've obviously given it a lot of thought. Here comes the "but"...
Hustwaite. Not sure why you say that. He seems to have a bit of the Pendles about him, creating time and space, and he hits targets time and again. I'm sure KB will be very sure about what he does or doesn't offer as he may fall right on our sweet spot.
Agree with you 100% on Allan. Don't know about George with so little recent exposed form.
Keeler is an interesting one as the "experts" vary quite a bit on where he should go. I certainly would not be unhappy if we took him though my preference is for Barnett as I see that as the greater need.
I too am a fan of McLean. He may not have the burst speed but he has a fair tank.
Who do you like with our third?
Alywn or his bro or Munkara
Or Lemmey
Has too much potential talent to go in the 40s
Most likely will
If he turns out .. will be a massive bargain