Review 2023 National Draft Review Thread II [McKercher, Z.Duursma, Goad, W.Dawson, Hardeman, Maley]

[Mixed Results]

It's looking likely now that Curtin will still be there at Pick 6, which puts Melbourne in the box seat for Reid.

Pick 2 is obviously worth a lot more than Pick 6, but to West Coast it represents the exact same value if they plan on taking Curtin regardless. From that point of view I think Melbourne can beat any deal that makes sense for us.

Maybe West Coast would take McKercher if we handed them Pick 2, but for us that would be a major mistake and we'd have to significantly reduce our offer if it meant losing McKercher.

I think we'll pivot soon to moving up for Geelong's pick. It would put us in the right spot to take Caddy, who we have reported interest in.

 

[LB2Snake]

My prediction: forgetting about the Walter bid, as not relevant. Would actually be hilarious if no one bids on Walter till after Suns pick is gone BTW.

WC will accept 2 and 17, they could have had 3 and 15.
They will take McKercher and then come out and say that was their plan all along, they would’ve taken Colby at 1, but they were able to trade out to get exactly who they want with the extra pick.

We will take Harley at 1
WC - McKercher at 2
Dursma at 3
Hawks take Watson at 4
Braves take Sanders at 5
Dees - Caddy at 6
Giants - Curtin but could be Sully
Cats trade out to us with 15 and 18 - we take Sully or Curtin

WC take Tholstrop - that his name - with 17
WC take Collard at 23
“ We’ve had our eyes firmly on these WA boys for the past couple of years. We wanted Daniel, obviously, think he’s a prodigious talent, but Daniel knows we will come for him when the time is right. We are a big club and our supporters know that“.

 

[LB2Snake]

It's looking likely now that Curtin will still be there at Pick 6, which puts Melbourne in the box seat for Reid.

Pick 2 is obviously worth a lot more than Pick 6, but to West Coast it represents the exact same value if they plan on taking Curtin regardless. From that point of view I think Melbourne can beat any deal that makes sense for us.

Maybe West Coast would take McKercher if we handed them Pick 2, but for us that would be a major mistake and we'd have to significantly reduce our offer if it meant losing McKercher.

I think we'll pivot soon to moving up for Geelong's pick. It would put us in the right spot to take Caddy, who we have reported interest in.

Pick 1 for 6, 11 and a teens pick is not bad by WC, they’ll be able to “paint that picture” to their supporters via that Daniels clown. Easy.

 

[Smoocher]

Wow wee boy O boy.

I've seen plenty of Dursma highlights but I just saw the highlights of Dursma when he played for Casey.

We are definitely picking him up at 2.
Speed, smooth, composed, skills, willingness to run and work hard.

Wouldn't be surprised if Dee's try and trade for 2 just to get him.



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[ohmygewd]

Nah, the academy and f/s bids count as actual picks and when you look at the phantom drafts for those picks you should be looking 3-5 picks later.

Yeah yeah, it does count on a board but in terms of talent pool available it makes no difference.
If we bid on Walter at #2 does that mean that who we had in mind at #2 has changed? No.
For GC, Doggies and Haw, the draft order means more to them because it's about pick matching and points but for us, it's available talent.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

I like this game.

Our only proven key defender does an ACL = that already happened = we're f*cked.

On the other hand, it's hard to be certain what part of the ground needs most urgent attention but taking a player in the top 3 even though he is most likely 5-7 on everyone else's board just because of our current needs (that he can't possibly be expected to fill for a good 3 seasons anyway) is insane.

I expect we will select the players we regard as best available regardless of position.

Who cares about other people’s boards? Unless they come to us with a trade that benefits us, pick the players that our team will best fit and have the highest potential for team success, wherever that may be.

The draft order is abstract and built on the collective intelligence of the draft community. To innovate, by definition, you have to go against the grain. This is something that - by his very nature - Clarkson has done his entire career.

 

[GoRoos2023]

Wow wee boy O boy.

I've seen plenty of Dursma highlights but I just saw the highlights of Dursma when he played for Casey.

We are definitely picking him up at 2.
Speed, smooth, composed, skills, willingness to run and work hard.

Wouldn't be surprised if Dee's try and trade for 2 just to get him.



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How good does he look!

 

[Psicosis]

I think us not taking Curtain is negligent, there is an elite ready to go key defender sitting there with the exact pick we traded out McKay with.

I like Zane he is a gun, as is Mcarch take one of them but don’t leave an elite key defender slip by when we are giving list spots to SANFL players to fill key defensive gaps.

Surely they wouldn’t. Realise there are some options later in the draft as well and we should take one of them as well.

Not really sure how many times it needs to be said that Curtin doesn’t see himself as a defender long term. In fact he has told clubs in his interviews that he doesn’t want to be drafted as a KPD. Sees his future in the midfield.

 

[ohmygewd]

Wasn't Hurn very susceptible to hamstring issues which cause him to retire and was he not playing more than he was playing towards the end of his career?

I wouldn't be asking him to play 23 games, use him as break glass in an emergency...teach these bloody backs how to use their eyes, brains and body and where to position themselves....and if you want to talk about how to teach and show our kids how to be a professional footballer
Maybe 2yr contract is too much but a 1yr+2yr coaching since we have an opening now.

 

[speedy]

Just off topic, I’m watching NM v COL 1993 season at Victoria park on youtube atm.

Especially for the oldies, it is a real fun game to rewatch. It’s got most of COL 90’s premiership team and most of our 96 team plus oldies like Larkin, German & Ross Smith.

Just to set the tone, Adrian McAdam kicked the first 3 goals of the first quarter through free kicks. * Spoiler * we absolutely smashed them.

 

[LB2Snake]

If dees are willing to do 6 11 and f1 for Reid, would you entertain this trade?

Dees - 6 11 f1 for 1
WC - 1 for 3 15 17
NM - 3 for 6 11 f1

Dees get Reid, North improve their draft hand and eagles improve their draft hand. There is no way eagles will trade out of the top 5. That is the best offer they are going to get.

It gives us 2 6 11 18 this year and 2 x f1 next year.

Eagles want Curtin……they know, or believe, he will be there at 6. I don’t think they’d give up 6. They’d try and do 11 and F1 for 3.
Can’t see it happening myself.

 

[Masked Avenger]

Curtin's a deadset no brainer for me.

Plenty seem to doubt his KPD credentials because he plays more like a flanker but we wouldn't want him locking down on the gorillas like Hawkins anyway.

You'd want him playing a more offensive, rebound role accross CHB like a Jake Lever

8

Jake Lever

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.3

3star

MG

242.0

4star

D

9.6

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

3.1

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.3

2star

MG

145.4

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

6.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

189.8

4star

.

Lever's a damaging, smart player but on the vision I've seen Curtin looks bigger, looks like he has more scope to be stronger and definitely looks more athletic. He's a cracking kick also.

With his athleticism, height and likely bulk he could be like a wall playing at CHB.

You could build an entire backline around a player like him if he played to his potential.

There are good midfielders on offer each year but I reckon Curtin will be the one we'll regret not taking if WC pass on him at 1.

 

[Firebat]

I’ve settled on:
Pick 2) McKercher
Pick 3) Sanders

I just think they’ll be the best two players after Reid.

Take key position players with the other picks.

 

[pupstar]

Not really sure how many times it needs to be said that Curtin doesn’t see himself as a defender long term. In fact he has told clubs in his interviIt doentews that he doesn’t want to be drafted as a KPD. Sees his future in the midfield.

It doesn't matter where Curtin wants to play . He will play the roll which is given to him regardless of where it is on the field,

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

It doesn't matter where Curtin wants to play . He will play the roll which is given to him regardless of where it is on the field,

Which is all very well, the kid plays where he's told to play, but when he comes out of contract, he may ask to be traded somewhere that offers him midfield opportunities.

 

[speedy]

Eagles want Curtin……they know, or believe, he will be there at 6. I don’t think they’d give up 6. They’d try and do 11 and F1 for 3.
Can’t see it happening myself.

I can’t see them trading out of the top 5. No guarantee Curtain will be there at pick 7 (after Walter bid). Anyway I’ve had second thoughts on it, our draft hand doesn’t really improve.

 

[TerryFilk]

Eagles want Curtin……they know, or believe, he will be there at 6. I don’t think they’d give up 6. They’d try and do 11 and F1 for 3.
Can’t see it happening myself.

So West Coast get 3,15 and 17 (15 and 17 being in the 20’s in this draft) for pick 1

North get 6,11 and a likely top 15 pick next year for pick 3?

How is 3 valued at more or essentially the same as 1 lol?

We’ve already rejected 4, a future 1st (almost guaranteed to be a top 5 pick) and Brockman

Also rejected 2,15 and 17 apparently and obviously your offer of 4 mid / late 1sts.

 

[pupstar]

Which is all very well, the kid plays where he's told to play, but when he comes out of contract, he may ask to be traded somewhere that offers him midfield opportunities.

Not if we are playing finals

 

[LB2Snake]

I can’t see them trading out of the top 5. No guarantee Curtain will be there at pick 7 (after Walter bid). Anyway I’ve had second thoughts on it, our draft hand doesn’t really improve.

Still fun to work out the different possible machinations.
I think we hold the whip hand, whether they trade or not, regardless of who with.
2 of the top 3 picks in the draft is absolutely golden. I’ve always been on the MCKercher and Curtin Train, but Dursma has massive appeal too.
But I really think you’d want one of our 2 picks to be Victorian, it‘s relevant, so I’m getting swayed by Dursma.
Having pick 1 would make things easier, as it would take Curtin out of the equation too, I reckon.
Harley and Dursma would prob be best result from a “keep long term” result. Colby feels like a bloke who would never leave also though, but ya never know.

 

[LB2Snake]

So West Coast get 3,15 and 17 (15 and 17 being in the 20’s in this draft) for pick 1

North get 6,11 and a likely top 15 pick next year for pick 3?

How is 3 valued at more or essentially the same as 1 lol?

We’ve already rejected 4, a future 1st (almost guaranteed to be a top 5 pick) and Brockman

Also rejected 2,15 and 17 apparently and obviously your offer of 4 mid / late 1sts.

The 2, 15 and 17 has not been rejected. Unless that’s new news. We haven’t even offered that as far as I know. I don’t think we would offer that TBH. But it might get to that.

 

[speedy]

So West Coast get 3,15 and 17 (15 and 17 being in the 20’s in this draft) for pick 1

North get 6,11 and a likely top 15 pick next year for pick 3?

How is 3 valued at more or essentially the same as 1 lol?

We’ve already rejected 4, a future 1st (almost guaranteed to be a top 5 pick) and Brockman

Also rejected 2,15 and 17 apparently and obviously your offer of 4 mid / late 1sts.

it was actually 3 15 17 for 6 11 f1, but I deleted the post, not worth it for north. If WC rejected 2 15 17 then I’d imagine melb’s 6 11 f1 isn’t good enough either? Congrats on selecting Reid no.1 and joe blogs with your next pick.

I’d be pissed if we traded 2 15 and 17 for 1.

 

[roos 10]

it was actually 3 15 17 for 6 11 f1, but I deleted the post, not worth it for north. If WC rejected 2 15 17 then I’d imagine melb’s 6 11 f1 isn’t good enough either? Congrats on selecting Reid no.1 and joe blogs with your next pick.

I’d be pissed if we traded 2 15 and 17 for 1.

2 and 15 tops for 1

 

[Gippy Roo]

2 and 15 tops for 1

What about our future first and 15? That way we have picks 1, 2 and 3!


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[DocSholl]

If WC rejected 2 15 17 then I’d imagine melb’s 6 11 f1 isn’t good enough either?

Depends. If they think the guy they'd pick at 2 is there at 6 (Curtin) then the Dees offer probably looks better, especially as the consensus appears to be this draft thins out after the first dozen.

I reckon they want McKercher though which makes us the only feasible trade partner.

 

[Gotta_Bea_Hero]

Just off topic, I’m watching NM v COL 1993 season at Victoria park on youtube atm.

Especially for the oldies, it is a real fun game to rewatch. It’s got most of COL 90’s premiership team and most of our 96 team plus oldies like Larkin, German & Ross Smith.

Just to set the tone, Adrian McAdam kicked the first 3 goals of the first quarter through free kicks. * Spoiler * we absolutely smashed them.

One of my all time favourite games. McAdam kicked a bag that day.




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