Opinion 2023 Pass mark (Nicks keeps job)

[WaynesWorld19]

Of the mainstay youngsters; 33% went backwards last season, 33% progressed as expected and 33% bought their own football abilty with them as first year players!!

They're pretty precise % numbers .....based on a subjective POV ?

I struggle to determine who went backwards ..... 2nd year Blues is real ....but those views are subjective

 

[WaynesWorld19]

He's not talking about the team as a whole!!

But that's how you have to assess Nicks .....team performance

 

[1970crow]

There's two ways of looking at it...

• We're not selecting the youngsters, because the list management team haven't drafted any with elite potential, or
• We're not drafting midfielders with our top picks, because they think those they've already drafted will get the job done (contradicted by selection).

List Management and Team Selection decisions aren't mutually exclusive, so it's probably a bit from column A and a bit from column B.

I will note that 2022 was the year we finally started to see a true regeneration of our midfield, years after they turned over the Defence & Forward lines. Berry & Soligo forced their way into the starting midfield, and I expect (hope) Pedlar will join them in 2023. If that happens, then we will have significantly regenerated our midfield, which is exactly what we all want to see happen.

Hopefully we don't revert to a freshened Sloane and uninjured Keays early next year.

 

[1970crow]

Team culture is an interesting KPI. Just about Anyone could have taken over from the Pyke, Campo, Burto shitshow and gotten high praise for the cultural turnaround. Will be interesting when there's actual performance accountability pressures and jobs are on the line. We've already seen a crack or two, ie Tex openly dismissing a Nix statement, so 2023 may be interesting if we have a slow start.

 

[Ramify]

They're pretty precise % numbers on a subjective POV ?

I ..... 2nd year Blues is real ....but those views are subjective

My memory is shot I'll admit, but considering my highly precise,and ever reliable formula,I can only think of 3 players I'd consider mainstay. Berry, to my eye progressed as expected. Harry looked bloody terrible in comparison to how he finished the previous year and Blind Freddy could tell you Soligo was a Star,the minute he took the ground.
I've left that 1% for the Cameo run throughs who made token appearances throughout the season.

The rest are Old farts.

But that's how you have to assess Nicks .....team performance

But context is important. Vader was responding to a statement I made in regard to our midfield unit.
As a whole, I somewhat agree with you subjectivity. Except I'm confused about the 2nd year blues bit. Who are you referring to here?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

2025 is the finals target year

If we don’t make finals in 2024, Nicks will be in trouble

 

[Scorpus]

Far too much of our improvement next year hinges on players taken later than pick 20 in the draft becoming A grade or elite players.

Guys like Schoenberg, Berry, Soligo, Taylor, Cook, Worrell need to show they're not just serviceable contributors, but genuine All Australian types.

We don't have a single elite young midfielder on the list, so the slack needs to be picked up from later picks. Not sure if any of them have what it takes to become genuinely elite. Unless you count Rachele who was drafted as a small forward (half forward if we're being generous).

A lot of resources have been spent on our forward line when the problem is getting the ball into our forward line. Having elite talents like Thilthorpe and Rankine ahead of the ball means nothing when the opposition is pinging it into their forward line effortlessly - which will probably continue to be the case in 2023.

The promising young players we have are too young and inexperienced to have a genuine impact to make us a finals contender, and are coming from too far back to deliver that impact quickly (as opposed to elite midfielders taken at the pointy end of the draft, which typically are more ready made).

There's also questions over how we outpace other teams vying for finals or thereabouts. How do we match Gold Coast's far superior midfield? Or Port Adelaide? Or GWS? Those teams have greater upside - Port for example just added an elite young midfielder. All three finished in a similar ladder zone to us.

I don't see how we are expected to go from an 8 win team up to almost making finals when our list management team hasn't done anything substantial to give us that immediate ladder/wins boost.

Given what we are working with, 1 more win than 2022 would be reasonable

 

[Ramify]

Hopefully we don't revert to a freshened Sloane and uninjured Keays early next year.

The back half of this season gives me hope.

If he does revert and the apologists start banging on about experience, games played etc then this to me is a sure-fire sign that Nicks won't see out the season.

 

[Ramify]

Far too much of our improvement next year hinges on players taken later than pick 20 in the draft becoming A grade or elite players.

Guys like Schoenberg, Berry, Soligo, Taylor, Cook, Worrell need to show they're not just serviceable contributors, but genuine All Australian types.

We don't have a single elite young midfielder on the list, so the slack needs to be picked up from later picks. Not sure if any of them have what it takes to become genuinely elite. Unless you count Rachele who was drafted as a small forward (half forward if we're being generous).

A lot of resources have been spent on our forward line when the problem is getting the ball into our forward line. Having elite talents like Thilthorpe and Rankine ahead of the ball means nothing when the opposition is pinging it into their forward line effortlessly - which will probably continue to be the case in 2023.

The promising young players we have are too young and inexperienced to have a genuine impact to make us a finals contender, and are coming from too far back to deliver that impact quickly (as opposed to elite midfielders taken at the pointy end of the draft, which typically are more ready made).

There's also questions over how we outpace other teams vying for finals or thereabouts. How do we match Gold Coast's far superior midfield? Or Port Adelaide? Or GWS? Those teams have greater upside - Port for example just added an elite young midfielder. All three finished in a similar ladder zone to us.

I don't see how we are expected to go from an 8 win team up to almost making finals when our list management team hasn't done anything substantial to give us that immediate ladder/wins boost.

Given what we are working with, 1 more win than 2022 would be reasonable

I like this post,but I differ in opinion in that I think you put too much emphasis on draft position on not enough on Coaching amongst other variables. Especially considering the fickleness of the draft these days and the history of high picks failing/Low pick succeeding etc and teams consisting of either doing the same.

I think there is plenty enough abilty on our list to contend for finals should they be Coached right. Winning a flag? Maybe not, but I don't think that's a matter of which draft number our players where recruited at either.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

As a whole, I somewhat agree with you subjectivity. Except I'm confused about the 2nd year blues bit. Who are you referring to here?

Cook was the player uppermost in my mind as 2nd year player

 

[WaynesWorld19]

We don't have a single elite young midfielder on the list

Pedlar ! .....don't confuse injury with talent

It's been stated by the Club ..... Pedlar has had to develop his body to enable him to play his style of combative football

Not many can come in & play his style, and remain uninjured .....the fact he was behind the 8-ball from his injury riddled Draft Year ....just means a bit of patience

But we've seen how desperate the Club is to get Pedlar into the side

 

[crow2crow]

Pedlar ! .....don't confuse injury with talent

It's been stated by the Club ..... Pedlar has had to develop his body to enable him to play his style of combative football

Not many can come in & play his style, and remain uninjured .....the fact he was behind the 8-ball from his injury riddled Draft Year ....just means a bit of patience

But we've seen how desperate the Club is to get Pedlar into the side

Agree he is the no 1, taylor most likely next for mine

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Agree he is the no 1, taylor most likely next for mine

I liked Taylor when he was the first possession mid .....not so much when Crouch was playing & he was the 2nd possession

His reading of ruck taps was excellent

 

[Danger in Texas]

Pedlar ! .....don't confuse injury with talent

It's been stated by the Club ..... Pedlar has had to develop his body to enable him to play his style of combative football

Not many can come in & play his style, and remain uninjured .....the fact he was behind the 8-ball from his injury riddled Draft Year ....just means a bit of patience

But we've seen how desperate the Club is to get Pedlar into the side

Problem is, I can't think of any recent elite midfielders that haven't been able to make any sort of AFL impact in their first two years. Usually they give a decent level of production. Yes Pedlar's had injuries, but that's still development time lost

Luke's gonna have to be the exception to the rule

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Problem is, I can't think of any recent elite midfielders that haven't been able to make any sort of AFL impact in their first two years. Usually they give a decent level of production. Yes Pedlar's had injuries, but that's still development time lost

Luke's gonna have to be the exception to the rule

So what of players Drafted, who do their ACL in year 1 ..... injuries happen ....talent doesn't disappear

Marking Pedlar down is ridiculous

 

[Scorpus]

Pedlar ! .....don't confuse injury with talent

It's been stated by the Club ..... Pedlar has had to develop his body to enable him to play his style of combative football

Not many can come in & play his style, and remain uninjured .....the fact he was behind the 8-ball from his injury riddled Draft Year ....just means a bit of patience

But we've seen how desperate the Club is to get Pedlar into the side

You can't be elite if you can't get on the park

 

[Vader]

If we don’t make finals in 2024, Nicks will be in trouble

Negative... but he'd want to finish in the 9-12 region, rather than 15-18. 2025 is the target year for returning to the finals.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

You can't be elite if you can't get on the park

Will start next year as a 20 YO ...... 12 years of elite footy still left

 

[Danger in Texas]

So what of players Drafted, who do their ACL in year 1 ..... injuries happen ....talent doesn't disappear

Marking Pedlar down is ridiculous

Not saying he won't be an AFL player, still plenty of time on his side

A lot of development time is usually needed for a player to become a star though, and given Pedlar seems behind the 8-ball in that regard, I'm very hesitant to mark him down as an 'elite' player in the making as of right now

 

[Ramify]

Pedlar ! .....don't confuse injury with talent

It's been stated by the Club ..... Pedlar has had to develop his body to enable him to play his style of combative football

Not many can come in & play his style, and remain uninjured .....the fact he was behind the 8-ball from his injury riddled Draft Year ....just means a bit of patience

But we've seen how desperate the Club is to get Pedlar into the side

"Elite". Now that's a subjective term.

Berry, Soligo, Pedlar, Taylor, Schoenberg,Rachele are all potential elites if players like Selwood, Sloane, Dangerfield,Swan are to be considered elites of the game.

I'm not as interested in acquiring "elite", on paper Jr midfielders as I am in acquiring a Coach that can build an elite midfield using a sum of all parts approach.

How many elite Jrs have never gone on to win AFL flags vs how many Players recruited later have gone on to become "Elites" of the game and won flags?

Very rarely you get a player like Daicos who hits the scene and instantly dominates.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

A lot of development time is usually needed for a player to become a star though, and given Pedlar seems behind the 8-ball in that regard

Nah .....his footy knowledge is good .....it's only his AFL fitness that can be questioned

 

[WaynesWorld19]

How many elite Jrs have never gone on to wo
In AFL flags vs how many Players recruited later have gone on to become "Elites" of the game and win flags?

This is spot on ....so why the emphasis on the players Draft position ?

I like making early predictions .....and hanging it all out there ....people will always know in black & white my player thoughts

Fogs was harder to predict than Pedlar

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I don't know what they are... but I can tell you, sure as heck, that win-loss ratio is one of the least important of them, given where our team list is currently at.

We're currently over-performing, and there's not a single thing to suggest that Nicks' position would be in any danger at the end of 2023, even if the team takes a step backwards in 2023.

Explain how we have been over-performing?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Negative... but he'd want to finish in the 9-12 region, rather than 15-18. 2025 is the target year for returning to the finals.

We should be aiming for finals in 2024 given most of the team would have played 50+ games.

Aiming in 2025 is accepting mediocrity.

 

[Ramify]

This is spot on ....so why the emphasis on the players Draft position ?

I like making early predictions .....and hanging it all out there ....people will always know in black & white my player thoughts

Fogs was harder to predict than Pedlar

In all honesty, I think it's a bit of a safety blanket in some people's minds and an unscientific copout as to why we suck. Doesn't take into account all the other factors involved in producing a flag winning team, or an elite AFL footballer.

I like to make outlandish statements also,but I don't think Fog was hard to peg as a future Champ at all when assessing his natural abilty, which, let's be honest, is exactly what you are doing with Pedlar.