Opinion 2023 Pass mark (Nicks keeps job)

[Vader]

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You're forgetting the compound effect of adding Rankine, and a couple of this years SANFL players ......whilst I don't expect us to make the 8 in 2023, our DEF KPP are still suspect IMO .....I do fully expect 2024

E.G ...Rankine changes the order of defensive matchups by oppo clubs .....will free up Rachelle, who'll be much fitter & prepared next year

You consistently undersell our players .....a couple of losses this year, can be attributed to youthful mistakes & perseverance with those players in the developmental phase

I don't expect as much experimentation with players next season .....we've got good list depth now

We won 4 games this year against teams not named Norf or Weagles. 4 games against AFL opponents.

We're miles off finals right now, and anyone who thinks Rankine is the difference between us making it and not being close is utterly clueless. Rankine is very much an icing on the cake player - we're still 2 years away from taking the cake out of the oven.

 

[baldandbroke]

We won 4 games this year against teams not named Norf or Weagles. 4 games against AFL opponents.

We're miles off finals right now, and anyone who thinks Rankine is the difference between us making it and not being close is utterly clueless. Rankine is very much an icing on the cake player - we're still 2 years away from taking the cake out of the oven.

We will play the bottom teams twice in 2023 too … or can we only count wins against teams that don’t end the season the bottom three?

I think Nicks is on the edge in the next season. Our form capitulates early … coach in trouble. If we fall off slightly later in the season he’s probably ok.

It is completely about wins.

Only wins will release the pressure valve if we are carved up early in the season.

 

[Vader]

We will play the bottom teams twice in 2023 too … or can we only count wins against teams that don’t end the season the bottom three?

I think Nicks is on the edge in the next season. Our form capitulates early … coach in trouble. If we fall off slightly later in the season he’s probably ok.

It is completely about wins.

Only wins will release the pressure valve if we are carved up early in the season.

Odds are we don't get double-up games against both Norf and Weagles. We should get double up games against 2 of the other 5 bottom teams. Odds are we double up against one, but not both of them.

The entry level for making the finals is normally 11-12 wins. In 2023 it will be 12-13, given the addition of "Magic Round". Assuming we only get 3x games against Norf & Weagles, that means we'd need to win 9-10 games against AFL standard opponents. In 2022 we won 4. Are you seriously expecting us to double our wins against genuine opponents that quickly?

Nicks is barely under any pressure whatsoever in 2023. Maybe he could come under pressure in 2024, if we don't start to see on-field improvements - but win/loss ratio remains a low priority in 2023.

 

[UcantCme]

Odds are we don't get double-up games against both Norf and Weagles. We should get double up games against 2 of the other 5 bottom teams. Odds are we double up against one, but not both of them.

The entry level for making the finals is normally 11-12 wins. In 2023 it will be 12-13, given the addition of "Magic Round". Assuming we only get 3x games against Norf & Weagles, that means we'd need to win 9-10 games against AFL standard opponents. In 2022 we won 4. Are you seriously expecting us to double our wins against genuine opponents that quickly?

Nicks is barely under any pressure whatsoever in 2023. Maybe he could come under pressure in 2024, if we don't start to see on-field improvements - but win/loss ratio remains a low priority in 2023.

I don’t agree that win vs loss ratio won’t be important in 2023, I believe it will start to become more relevant next season

However it would take a absolute train wreck of a season to sack Nicks next year


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[Dangarman]

With Luke Brown

16

Luke Brown

Age

32

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181cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

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Last 5

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14.1

4star

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8.9

3star

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5.2

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3.6

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2.0

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273.4

4star

D

11.7

3star

K

9.3

4star

HB

2.4

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M

3.4

3star

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1.4

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MG

273.4

4star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

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3.6

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3.2

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1.4

4star

retiring, there is a 112 game gap from Laird (202 games) to Keays (90 games). Crouch (132 games) is in that bracket, but clearly not a significant part of the 2023 development planning.

Dawson (86 games), ROB (would have to play all 23 games assuming we ain't playing finals) and Keays are the only prospects to enter the 100 club in 2023.

However, I'd expect at least McHenry (49 games), Rankine (48 games), Schoenberg (46 games) Butts, McAdam (both 43 games) and Berry (35 games) to hit the 50 game milestone.

Other possibilities are Sholl, Himmelberg and Hamill (all 38 games), Murray (29 games) and McPherson (28 games).

IMO until we have a more even spread of 100 through to 200 game players we will not be finals competitive.

 

[Danger in Texas]

We won 4 games this year against teams not named Norf or Weagles. 4 games against AFL opponents.

We're miles off finals right now, and anyone who thinks Rankine is the difference between us making it and not being close is utterly clueless. Rankine is very much an icing on the cake player - we're still 2 years away from taking the cake out of the oven.

And in 2021 we won 5 games against non-North sides. It could be said we went backwards last year, from a W-L perspective

I'd be expecting to win at least 6 games against AFL-level opponents in 2023. We may be a young side, but we still have to show some kind of improvement

 

[Jeffcrowe]

8-10 wins or the pressure will come

Individual player improvement and 8 wins is the bare minimum pass , ideally he needs 10 wins

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Negative... but he'd want to finish in the 9-12 region, rather than 15-18. 2025 is the target year for returning to the finals.

11-12 wins 2024 you’d think he needs min

Less than that won’t cut it

 

[Jeffcrowe]

What he's achieved with the list is about par so far. We have a bad list.

How he's been achieving those par results though has been questionable at times with an ultra conservative approach.

Adding Rankine doesn't really solve any pressing need with the side so I expect us to only slightly improve in 2023. Nicks has very little to work with so it makes it hard to judge him. I think he sees out the season and coaches in 2024.

You don’t think mid - forward is a pressing need ? Rankine will play high forward , wing and occasional centre square and give us forward half class

I’d say Rankine is the exact type of player we need , just go back to games like the St Kilda one where he will help us win those

Nicks has made us harder to play against , next step is to add class and killer blow in games. If he can’t do that then his tenure becomes uncertain

 

[Vader]

11-12 wins 2024 you’d think he needs min

Less than that won’t cut it

11-12 wins gets you into the finals. That's the 2025 target.

9-10 wins in 2024.

 

[thebirdman 24]

I have 2025 as the year we should have realistic expectations of making the finals. Anyone who thinks that's even a possibility in 2023 or 2024 either has no understanding whatsoever of our team list, has rocks in their head, or both.

2025 sounds about right for expecting finals but I wont be suprised if it's later.

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[Scorpus]

You don’t think mid - forward is a pressing need ? Rankine will play high forward , wing and occasional centre square and give us forward half class

I’d say Rankine is the exact type of player we need , just go back to games like the St Kilda one where he will help us win those

Nicks has made us harder to play against , next step is to add class and killer blow in games. If he can’t do that then his tenure becomes uncertain

Given we just drafted Rachele I don't think it's a pressing need, unless Rankine or Rachele can play full time permanent midfield. There's not much I think we need forward of the ball, we have our talls and small set.

What we need is:

- A genuine elite midfielder with the speed, skills and decision making to clear congestion and get the ball to the advantage of our forwards; one that would be discussed among the best players in the AFL

- A powerful, smart inside ball winner with elite hands and vision to win the ball and unlock outside players, who is difficult to stop and has great defensive action; preferably tall

- A fast line-breaker off half back with an elite, long kick to replace and improve upon Brodie Smith. Two of these would be even better.

- A versatile tall key position defender who can play as both a stopper and interceptor, that doesn't have atrocious disposal or decision making

- A serviceable ruckman who is either a great tap winner and clearance specialist, or is elite around the ground; doesn't have to have both, but can't have neither, unless we pay them stuff all



Nicks IMO is at least two gun midfielders short - on top of the players we already have on the list, unless one of them significantly improves. For a half forward to be any use we need creative midfielders that can actually use and distribute to outside players. We don't have anyone I can say is a definite lock in the team that can do that. The two I would have said are maybes both had shocking seasons (Schoenberg, and Pedlar who couldn't get on the park)

We're too much a bits and pieces team list wise for Nicks to really do anything. Have a couple of okay players on each line, but nothing to link it all together. Plenty of smaller inside ball winners (don't get me wrong, some of these guys look really good). Plenty of average defensive stoppers. Plenty of forward options. We have one very good outside midfielder in Dawson who we're forced to play in defense because we have no decent distributors behind the ball, which robs one connection up the field to solve an issue further back.

We need defenders that can break zones to get it to the midfield, and midfielders that can smartly and creatively involve outside players and forwards in fast chains of play. Until we solve that in list management we won't make finals

 

[JPetro83]

We really need to be winning 10 games in 2023 and looking like we are close to push for the 8... no more excuses.

 

[Rabish Binney]

11-12 wins gets you into the finals. That's the 2025 target.

9-10 wins in 2024.

This seasons results included losses to Freo (1 point); Essendon (4 points) & Collingwood (5 points). We should have snagged at least 2 of those losses which would have seen us at 10 wins. On the flip side, we may have been somewhat 'lucky' to beat Port and the Bulldogs by slender margins but I reckon it should have been a 10 win season.

Based on the above (and I know one season is different from the other), there's no reason why we shouldn't be aiming for 11/12 wins in 2023.

 

[Vader]

This seasons results included losses to Freo (1 point); Essendon (4 points) & Collingwood (5 points). We should have snagged at least 2 of those losses which would have seen us at 10 wins. On the flip side, we may have been somewhat 'lucky' to beat Port and the Bulldogs by slender margins but I reckon it should have been a 10 win season.

Based on the above (and I know one season is different from the other), there's no reason why we shouldn't be aiming for 11/12 wins in 2023.

We won 40% (2 of 5) games decided by under a goal. That's par for the course, and there's no reason to think that we'll miraculously win 100% of all close games next year (or any other year).

Maybe we win 3/5 next year, but only get 3x games against Norf & Weagles, in which case we come out evens. We're not making the finals, or even getting close to doing so, in 2023.

 

[maxlilly]

I'd give Nicks a pass if he could teach our players to hit a player with a kick <40m and kick to our advantage into the forward line

 

[Interloperer]

Finals this year should be the minimum pass mark for the Nicks venture as a whole.

He'll cruise into next year with anything more than 6 wins though.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Given we just drafted Rachele I don't think it's a pressing need, unless Rankine or Rachele can play full time permanent midfield. There's not much I think we need forward of the ball, we have our talls and small set.

What we need is:

- A genuine elite midfielder with the speed, skills and decision making to clear congestion and get the ball to the advantage of our forwards; one that would be discussed among the best players in the AFL

- A powerful, smart inside ball winner with elite hands and vision to win the ball and unlock outside players, who is difficult to stop and has great defensive action; preferably tall

- A fast line-breaker off half back with an elite, long kick to replace and improve upon Brodie Smith. Two of these would be even better.

- A versatile tall key position defender who can play as both a stopper and interceptor, that doesn't have atrocious disposal or decision making

- A serviceable ruckman who is either a great tap winner and clearance specialist, or is elite around the ground; doesn't have to have both, but can't have neither, unless we pay them stuff all



Nicks IMO is at least two gun midfielders short - on top of the players we already have on the list, unless one of them significantly improves. For a half forward to be any use we need creative midfielders that can actually use and distribute to outside players. We don't have anyone I can say is a definite lock in the team that can do that. The two I would have said are maybes both had shocking seasons (Schoenberg, and Pedlar who couldn't get on the park)

We're too much a bits and pieces team list wise for Nicks to really do anything. Have a couple of okay players on each line, but nothing to link it all together. Plenty of smaller inside ball winners (don't get me wrong, some of these guys look really good). Plenty of average defensive stoppers. Plenty of forward options. We have one very good outside midfielder in Dawson who we're forced to play in defense because we have no decent distributors behind the ball, which robs one connection up the field to solve an issue further back.

We need defenders that can break zones to get it to the midfield, and midfielders that can smartly and creatively involve outside players and forwards in fast chains of play. Until we solve that in list management we won't make finals

Agree with most of that

Hope we continue to put some of the pieces together

Still think a player of Rankine’s type and ability is part of the pieces we need

 

[Jeffcrowe]

11-12 wins gets you into the finals. That's the 2025 target.

9-10 wins in 2024.

You don’t play finals with 11-12 normally , ask Carlton

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Finals this year should be the minimum pass mark for the Nicks venture as a whole.

He'll cruise into next year with anything more than 6 wins though.

Nah don’t think that’s realistically where we are at so don’t think that’s the measure

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I'd give Nicks a pass if he could teach our players to hit a player with a kick <40m and kick to our advantage into the forward line

I think we have some of the cattle going forward to do that now

Dawson Rachele Rankine Soligo Milera

+ Taylor Sholl Cook if they can get games

All are very good kicks to advantage

Agree with Scorpus , need a better kicker and run/carrier off half back … do we go to Milera ?

 

[Vader]

You don’t play finals with 11-12 normally , ask Carlton

The number of wins by the 8th ranked team (i.e. more wins = guaranteed finals), for the last decade:
2022 = 12 (9th = 12 wins)
2021 = 11 (9th = 10 wins)
2020 ** shortened season
2019 = 12 (9th = 11 wins)
2018 = 13 (9th = 12 wins)
2017 = 12 (9th = 12 wins)
2016 = 12 (9th = 12 wins)
2015 = 13 (9th = 12 wins)
2014 = 12 (9th = 11 wins)
2013 = 12 (9th = 11 wins)

I'll give you that 11 wins isn't normally enough (though it was in 2021). 12 wins will, more often than not, buy you a ticket to the finals.

 

[rabidcrow]

Point is I don't see Nick's holding his job regardless of wins. I think they will go after an experienced coach such as Simpson, Goodwin or Leppitsch end of next. I think this is the right play. Most likely it would be Goodwin through his relationship with Roo and the opportunity to come home and coach the team he played for. His relationship with the melb hierarchy isn't overly good so I can't see a problem in him being let out of his contract. Goodwin knows Burgess well and this would be another factor.

Look I think the jury is still out on Nicks and I don’t think he lasts the whole rebuild process. I do think he gets to at least the bye in 2024 though


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[GameofSloanes]

Thread is hilarious.
The only way nicks isn't coach in 2024 is if we finish 17th or lower. Even then i wouldn't be certain
Everyone on BF seems to think he's on the knife edge. That certainly doesn't appear to be the attitude at AFC. They love him
I'm not certain about him really. He has done a great job of getting the players back together and creating a positive environment.
Tactically he's hit and miss, certainly some of that is because of the players we have (or don't have). At times we look good, others completely inept. Often within the same game. I just want to see the good bits become more consistent, maybe with experience that will happen
And never put hately or crouch on a wing

 

[Mr_Moogle]

The only way nicks isn't coach in 2024 is if we finish 17th or lower. Even then i wouldn't be certain
Everyone on BF seems to think he's on the knife edge. That certainly doesn't appear to be the attitude at AFC. They love him

If it's the competitive brand of plodding where we mostly lose but take the odd scalp and generally don't disgrace ourselves, Nicks will survive. If there's a major regression though and it's not down to injuries, I don't think he's completely safe at the end of 2023.