Preview 2023 Rd 2 Carlton vs Geelong Thursday March 23 7:20PM @ MCG

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …

One (forced) change:

OUT: Hewett (hand)
IN: Durdin

AFL team selection: Blues make one change

Corey Durdin will return for Round 2.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Nic Newman	Lewis Young	Lachie Cowan
Half-backs:	Sam Docherty	Jacob Weitering	Mitch McGovern
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Ed Curnow
Half-forwards:	Jack Martin	Zac Fisher	Jack Silvagni
Forwards:	Corey Durdin	Charlie Curnow	Harry McKay
Followers:	Tom De Koning	Adam Cerra	Matthew Kennedy
Interchange:	Ollie Hollands	Jesse Motlop	Matthew Owies
	Adam Saad
Emergencies:	Josh Honey	Lochie O'Brien	Marc Pittonet
	Lachie Plowman

 

[Pommylovescarlton]

​

Background

Carlton vs The Cats is a game that is cemented in Carlton’s mindset as they were the opposition in our most recent (28 years ago now URGH) Flag winning campaign when our Blue boys usurped and avenged the disappointing 105 – 72 semi-final defeat by winning the 1995 grand final in a canter 141-80.

Historically this will be the 224th time these two juggernauts have faced off! With Carlton winning 118 times, the Cats winning 103 times and 2 draws giving Carlton a historical 53.4% winning rate!

Recent History (Last 5)

In recent times the polar opposite of both of these sides has been on show, with Geelong having a 4 of the 5 games. With the last time out being a resounding show of Geelong’s Ruthlessness they displayed en route to their flag. With the last 2 being played at the G, Geelong has felt safe vs the Blues, however, it is interesting to note, that Geelong usually plays Carlton in this time period late in the season, as opposed to early (Round 3 ironically Carlton won in 2020), which has often been the staple of the Cat’s focus on sustained ladder success.

Player Performances








Round 1 – What we know!

Carlton came out and showed a much more patient and kick-based game plan than what we saw in 2022. The main question here for the Blues is was following the model of most sides and removing Richmond’s primary scoring medium the intercept transition, or was it a new total game style?

While rigid in defence, it should be noted after a 9th position Key Defenders having to become 2019 Carlton and defend against that ease of entry should be way past them and not sustainable at all.

The two key factors for the Blues to look at are it was Carlton’s lowest forward defensive pressure index for 2 years, something Voss has instilled, With Jack Martin

21

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

leading the way in defensive index scores. Owies and Motlop who were the two highest per game last season were caught in defensive transition on the defensive side of the ground. This caused Carlton major issues when intercepting as any early entry meant Curnow and McKay had to mark or no one would be at the fall of the ball.

The other concern will be the dominance around the ball at stoppage and centre bounces, Hewett was moved to a more advanced position, with Cerra Cripps and Kennedy spending more time in that sweeper/QB role at the back of the stoppage, and Carlton dropping back almost at the start of the action. It felt like at times Carlton had found gear 3 they missed last year (Gear 1 stop Gear 5 manic attack) but gear 4 and 5 never came.

This change to a kick opened up the famous “Long Bomb” with a focus on kicking, Carlton started to spread almost too much from each line, resulting in the only option available to Young & McGovern was the exit ball deep down the wing, The Handball game had forced them to stay close and compact allowing the sweeping exits we saw in round 1 – 3 last year. For me, I think it was deliberate and then the game situation stagnated Carlton, but this will be a primary focus for the Blues as Geelong are beaten with Quick movement, they have a staggering win rate versus more slow-building sides.

Geelong on the other hand dealt with injuries early causing Ratugolea to go from his new position down back, to suddenly play an intercept-sweeping role due to Stewart being out. They performed though admirably for 3 quarters, demonstrating their ruthless approach to the basics, and being solid around the ground. But a rampant Pies, now with a new stoppage formation led by Tom Mitchell exposed how the run and stun through the corridor can hurt Geelong, Not many people talk about the narrow ground of Geelong’s and how it allows them to spread better than any other side due to an appreciation of space, but They mixed up the quick ball with spread and Geelong looked out of their feet, particularly without the intercept of Stewart and his assured movement, Geelong was hemmed back and once the door opened it never shut, Geelong will have the benefit of a week to work on the system and have the players to come in to steady down the back. But Carlton will look and say our model last year, combined with this more patient approach should cause them problems if they can get the balance right.


How we beat the Cats!

Simple, Endeavour! Round 1 Carlton at times got caught in the reliance to not do what they did in Richmond game two and keep the ball live. Richmond loves the ball coming into them at pace, and Carlton focused on NOT GIVING THEM that. Richmond has never been an organic scoring side (Much focused in the press on why they would not win a flag again after 2017 Good old media) but they lost their staple quick movement when the game was on!

Positives have to be though Carlton would have lost that game last year, they still aren’t at the level they need to be (They have to act like a top 4 side) but this is potentially the perfect storm for the boys.

Carlton’s biggest weakness is not there, Tom Stewart, he has dominated Carlton throughout his career and last time out their strong quick movement was our own worst enemy as Tom picked Carlton off at will. He ain’t there this time, and for Carlton it means they get to go 1 on 1 without fear. The primary feeling here is to look at the last play of the 4th Obrien copped it, and H has copped it, but somehow the major takeaway was what we saw 4 quarters, Carlton having no one ahead of behind the fall of the ball and expecting TDK, H Curnow Cripps to constantly mark it and almost expecting it. The long bomb everyone complains about is the AFL coaching manual 1 on 1, it’s the common exit this week 76% of the time out of d50 (up to the Adelaide game) however for Carlton to expose Geelong they have to have players at the fall of that ball, the lines have to be deep. Carlton scored 7 out of 8 goals from intercepts, this is a good sign, the organic method and the ease with which Richmond dominated around stoppages need to be adjusted for this though. I expect Carlton to focus on going back to Hewett at the back and Cerra floating for the possession and to pick the side off from the wall that Kennedy and Cripps create. Carlton needs to bring the run and stun back for this one and work the gears safely but risk it at the right stages! This is very winnable based on this week for both sides, Carlton can easily switch back, versus Geelong finding a Stewart type in 6 days!


Changes

Geelong looks like Kolodjashnij will miss from early reports, Would assume that Bowes after his stead debut comes into the side. Esava and SDK (reported okay) will have to be tested by the boys as early as possible. Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

is another who will miss. I expect the only Bowes in for Stewart.


Expected Geelong Line Up




Carlton is an intriguing model, Cowan had a late knock, and O’Brien came on and ran hard which is what we expect a sub to do. The forwards will be concerned Jack Martin

21

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

was ineffective going forward aside from the defensive side of things (which was good compared to the rest but poor at the AFL level) Owies snagged but defensively disappeared and Fisher looked lost. But who does Carlton replace him with, The backline certainly looks like Cincotta will get a role, He is quick and at times we looked one-paced down back, Saad wasn’t his usually bursting self and that is probably down to Carlton not playing on from the mark at all. In VFL Pitto and Dow were both considered best on, so that opens it up especially given Dow’s penchant for playing the Cats. Honey has not burst the door down but did play the Durdin role in pre-season and Durdin himself looked solely missed at times. I expect them to shelve Ed Curnow, Generally, you do not Tag Geelong, and until the 4th no tag was positive from us, I am a Firm believer we do not need to do this anymore and Prestia hasn’t played a full 4 quarters for a long time, Expect something like this. With TDK given the chance to show how he has exploited Geelong and other sides by using a 3rd outlet.




Changes

Going to be a flip of the coin based on what we have seen. Geelong play as they did for 3 quarters they win by a canter, and Carlton play like they did last year in round 2 they win by a canter. A real wait-and-see. But that being said, way too much is talked about in regards to foot speed and all these niche terms, facts are the sides that move the ball faster do this by ball movement, not footwork, and Carlton has the tools in this 23 and a varied 23 to exploit any side. Holland’s will have a big job to repeat last week in his defensive wing work, and will look to repeat that ao stifle the work Holmes, Smith and co who float through their do, but at the end of the day Carlton needs to go back to basics move it quickly and manage the game as shown by Collingwood this week just gone, Go when the situation allows. Early Pom Predicts Dow to be Sub, the perfect place for him to be given to go hard and fast late in the game.



Preview Video:-

 

[Jimmae]

OUT: Newman, Fisher, Owies

IN: Cincotta/Kemp, O'Brien, C.Durdin

Imagine running out a football game

 

[Arr0w]

Out Cowan injured, Owies

In Cincotta, Durdin

No, Newman won't be dropped

 

[james Dean]

Martin should be dropped after that display.

Durdin or Honey would offer more

 

[Revenant1965]

Anyone got reports on VFL? At this stage Owies, Martin and Fish are high on the list of possible 'outs' for me. Durdin in, and Dow possibly as sub. Pitto possible in also... But who else could be ins?

 

[Forty3]

Anyone got reports on VFL? At this stage Owies, Martin and Fish are high on the list of possible 'outs' for me. Durdin in, and Dow possibly as sub. Pitto possible in also... But who else could be ins?

Dow best on by the Flemington straight. Pitt probably next best.
Binns got a lot of it early, kicking wasn’t very good. Carroll was class late, went missing for large periods.
Kemp similar, at times looks like a world beater, at other times looks completely lost. Played predominantly down back.

Of the vfl players, Dozzi, Maher and Leui all look like players.

 

[Footyfreak31]

Dow best on by the Flemington straight. Pitt probably next best.
Binns got a lot of it early, kicking wasn’t very good. Carroll was class late, went missing for large periods.
Kemp similar, at times looks like a world beater, at other times looks completely lost. Played predominantly down back.

Of the vfl players, Dozzi, Maher and Leui all look like players.

How did Cincotta go?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Was pleased with TDK’s game but would like to see Pitto return. Thought our clearance work suffered without tap dominance. Not sure who he pushes out.

Cowan if injured > Kemp/Cincotta (how’d the 2s go?)

 

[Forty3]

How did Cincotta go?

Tried hard, very stoic, defence first. Disposal wasn’t particularly good.

 

[MitchRobinson12]

Is Durdin going to be ready to go for this?

 

[branedotorg]

Based on tonight I'd say Martin out for Pitt, play jsos permanent 3rd tall.

Owies for durdin, Fisher given one more chance.

No HFF should be proud of the tigers game.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Based on tonight I'd say Martin out for Pitt, play jsos permanent 3rd tall.

Owies for durdin, Fisher given one more chance.

No HFF should be proud of the tigers game.

Thought Mots presented well and did a few good things. Reckon he works better with Durds too.

 

[branedotorg]

Thought Mots presented well and did a few good things. Reckon he works better with Durds too.

Agreed but played more like cotts or Walsh (last season) as an extra mid, rather than a forward

 

[Beyond Blue]

If Cowans misses due to injury IMO it would have to be between Plowman, Kemp or Cincotta to be his replacement.

The ruck is still up in the air - TdK was well beaten by Nank and SOS quiet after a good start - so all options on the table.

If Durdin is ready to play a game of league footy then I think Owies, Martin or Fisher would be in the gun.

 

[Arr0w]

OUT: Newman, Fisher, Owies

IN: Cincotta/Kemp, O'Brien, C.Durdin

Imagine running out a football game

Please Jim, Newman was easily in our top 10. Seriously give it a rest

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Please Jim, Newman was easily in our top 10. Seriously give it a rest

Hmm, outside my top 10 and I reckon we only had about 10 above average players on the night. Not in my worsts though.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

for me Durdin in if ready for any of the small forwards. (Coaches will know which didn’t perform their role)
Cowan if injured is replaced by any defender. Hard choice because none pick themselves.
Torn on Pitto. We lacked run so I would only imagine he could take JSOS’s role so I’d stick with JSOS for another week.
Maybe LOB for Hollands but not worried.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Out: Cowan (inj), Martin, Ed Curnow
In: Durdin, Cincotta, Pittonet

I'm leaving Owies in because we need the 3 smalls up there. Fisher needs to play in the midfield or get dropped.

 

[Arr0w]

Hmm, outside my top 10 and I reckon we only had about 10 above average players on the night. Not in my worsts though.

Certainly won't be dropped

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Certainly won't be drop

Not against Geelong. He'll find some better matchups there. We need the 7 defenders and we need players who can dispose of the ball. Still, I'm not sure who Newman is an ideal match up for. Not tall and not quick. Relies on smarts and disposal.

 

[windows1]

OUT: Newman, Fisher, Owies

IN: Cincotta/Kemp, O'Brien, C.Durdin

Imagine running out a football game

Bless you Jim.

 

[windows1]

Fisher is in the gun. ZERO second half touches is unacceptable.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Durdin absolutely essential player for us. Simply don't have the leg speed to apply the pressure needed in the fwd half without him.

 

[Jimmae]

Out: Cowan (inj), Martin, Ed Curnow
In: Durdin, Cincotta, Pittonet

I'm leaving Owies in because we need the 3 smalls up there. Fisher needs to play in the midfield or get dropped.

Motlop aside, none of our small forward were fit, and it showed. Only two of those other three should have played, and then one of them should have been subbed out.

Bless you Jim.

He was our worst defender, and I'm counting the three midfielders who consistently ran and sat back to defend (Kennedy, Cerra, Hollands).

My only regret is not figuring out how to get Dow into the team for him.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Out Cowan injured, Owies

In Cincotta, Durdin

No, Newman won't be dropped

Surely Newman must be dropped. He only just probably shaded Dustin Martin so clearly he is not up to it.