Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[A1fromDay1]

How shite do you think we are going to be next year? If st kilda slide as their talent would suggest they can offer similar contract, draft pick and his brother. And you know how much we rate bringing players home based on who they grew up supporting…You might be right but I don’t think it is a sure as you think. At least I hope not!

I think we'll be in that 12th-9th range next season, but I dont think the suns are gonna gamble on the saints sliding over our pick next season.

 

[Dewnior]

If we are going to wait until 2024, then I'f be targeting Naughton and not King. King will be more expensive than JOM and will come with a similar injury cloud.

 

[FB19]

I think we'll be in that 12th-9th range next season, but I dont think the suns are gonna gamble on the saints sliding over our pick next season.

Let’s hope not.
Ben King Mitch Lewis Zane Duursma Nick Watson Dylan Moore Connor MacDonald with Max Ramsden on the bench as forward and second ruck looks pretty good to me.

 

[Stard Picket]

Flanders and Davies aren’t going anywhere. sharp is worth as much as my personal trainer. What do futures have to do with anything for the 2023 draft?

 

[Colloquy]

Yeah, why would we want a young star key forward when we could just get another draft pick and hope they are going to be as good.

Where is the star forward we are getting King isn’t a star good yes no star why the GC are looking to replace him with the kid in this years draft.

His No Curnow

Better to go to the draft thanks and the last time we tried to get a player out of the GC they bent us big time.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Where is the star forward we are getting King isn’t a star good yes no star why the GC are looking to replace him with the kid in this years draft.

His No Curnow

Better to go to the draft thanks

Clueless as ever.

 

[Colloquy]

Clueless as ever.

Whatever

 

[WWSD]

I think it’s better to just wait for Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

to become a FA next year and offer him a 1 or 1.2 million a year type deal that would blow other clubs out of the water and also put Gold Coast in a position where they won’t be able to match.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Lewis and B King would be the best 2 pronged attack in the league moving forward. Need to make him an offer at the end of next year he can’t refuse and no other team can come close to matching!

 

[hawk65]

I think it’s better to just wait for Ben King to become a FA next year and offer him a 1 or 1.2 million a year type deal that would blow other clubs out of the water and also put Gold Coast in a position where they won’t be able to match.

King isn't a free agent next year. He will be out of contract though.

 

[HawthornHawk]

If you want to know whether Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

would be worth it, imagine him in the fwd line structure we played on Saturday in place of the guy who was playing for Maribyrnong Park last year. I don't mean that to be disrespectful to Ryan, but King would be unplayable at times in that scenario

 

[FB19]

I think it’s better to just wait for Ben King to become a FA next year and offer him a 1 or 1.2 million a year type deal that would blow other clubs out of the water and also put Gold Coast in a position where they won’t be able to match.

Ned Ryerson “Ben King is not a free agent” sign needed pronto.

 

[PenAndPaper]

Ok hear me out.

Hawthorn
IN - GC Pick 5 + GC Pick 43
OUT - Hawks Future 1st + Hawks Pick 32

Gold Coast
IN - Hawks Future 1st + Hawks Pick 32
OUT - GC Pick 5 + GC Pick 43

The above gives GC our future first which they would think will be better if not the same as their pick 5. They lose the pick 5 points but do gain a few from the other pick trade. I think they do it when they definitely have other ways of gathering more points through trading of players that could yield a few.

Hawthorn
IN - Haynes(Full contract) + GWS Pick 11
OUT - Hawks Pick 51

GWS
IN - Cap Space + Hawks Pick 51
OUT - Haynes(Full contract) + GWS Pick 11

GWS get the cap space they apparently desperately need by taking a 31yo on around $1mil a year off their books. We get their second 1st round pick so they keep pick 6 and we give them back pick 51 as a sweetener.

I think the GC trade works out well for both teams, the GWS one would depend on how desperately they need Haynes off their books and if they'd want something better than pick 51 back for it.
Depending on if we can also get any trade value for a player from us, we could use that as further enticement.

This scenario ultimately gives us:

IN - GC Pick 5 + GWS Pick 11 + GC Pick 43 + Nick Haynes

19

Nick Haynes

Age

32

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

6.2

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

326.8

4star

D

17.4

4star

K

13.9

5star

HB

3.5

2star

M

8.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

MG

326.8

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

(full contract)
OUT - Hawks Future 1st + Hawks Pick 32 + Hawks Pick 51

Sounds crazy good for us but don't think it really leaves another team out of whack either.

 

[spudmaster]

Ok hear me out.

Hawthorn
IN - GC Pick 5 + GC Pick 43
OUT - Hawks Future 1st + Hawks Pick 32

Gold Coast
IN - Hawks Future 1st + Hawks Pick 32
OUT - GC Pick 5 + GC Pick 43

The above gives GC our future first which they would think will be better if not the same as their pick 5. They lose the pick 5 points but do gain a few from the other pick trade. I think they do it when they definitely have other ways of gathering more points through trading of players that could yield a few.

Hawthorn
IN - Haynes(Full contract) + GWS Pick 11
OUT - Hawks Pick 51

GWS
IN - Cap Space + Hawks Pick 51
OUT - Haynes(Full contract) + GWS Pick 11

GWS get the cap space they apparently desperately need by taking a 31yo on around $1mil a year off their books. We get their second 1st round pick so they keep pick 6 and we give them back pick 51 as a sweetener.

I think the GC trade works out well for both teams, the GWS one would depend on how desperately they need Haynes off their books and if they'd want something better than pick 51 back for it.
Depending on if we can also get any trade value for a player from us, we could use that as further enticement.

This scenario ultimately gives us:

IN - GC Pick 5 + GWS Pick 11 + GC Pick 43 + Nick Haynes (full contract)
OUT - Hawks Future 1st + Hawks Pick 32 + Hawks Pick 51

Sounds crazy good for us but don't think it really leaves another team out of whack either.

Minimal points for effort - only 3 clubs involved.
Re-do it with at least 3 more clubs needed and where we end up with lots of first rounders while only losing 3rd/4th rounders and fringe players.

 

[PenAndPaper]

Minimal points for effort - only 3 clubs involved.
Re-do it with at least 3 more clubs needed and where we end up with lots of first rounders while only losing 3rd/4th rounders and fringe players.

Oh I forgot my Brocky for Pick 1 part

 

[hawkmang]

Ned Ryerson “Ben King is not a free agent” sign needed pronto.

 

[naysayer]

Oh sh1t naysayer
They're not Cal Twomey, but we got media types talking about GWS throwing in a 1st Rounder to take on the Haynes contract

It's not like we'd not have to give back say a F2 to make it happen, but there is a way that this is win/win/win for all parties.

I must inform you Brant that I have completely changed my mind. After hearing an informed football person on a highly respected radio station share a thought that likely came to him in the shower, I now think this is not only likely, but certain to happen.

In fact, I hadn't even considered that this deal may involve parting with our prized future second rounder, and I now worry the deal is skewed too heavily in GWS' favour.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Based on current draft watcher ratings three GCS have three players in the top 10, maybe top 15 at worst.

Loosely they're going to need around 3,500 to 4,000 points to match them all, and that's with the discount.

Right now they hold the following picks:
5 - 1,878
27 - 703
30 - 629
43 - 378
46 - 331
56 - 194
61 - 135
64 - 101
68 - 59

That equals 4,409 points.

Though if they trade out their first rounder then that tally reduces drastically to 2,531.

Say Walter gets bid on at #3, and Rogers and Read get bid on at #12 and #15 (fairly conservative) they would need 3,691 points to match all bids.

How do they make it work if they trade out their first completely, as opposed to trading back?

I think if we made a deal with them we'd need to swing them our second rounder at least.

 

[FB19]

Based on current draft watcher ratings three GCS have three players in the top 10, maybe top 15 at worst.

Loosely they're going to need around 3,500 to 4,000 points to match them all, and that's with the discount.

Right now they hold the following picks:
5 - 1,878
27 - 703
30 - 629
43 - 378
46 - 331
56 - 194
61 - 135
64 - 101
68 - 59

That equals 4,409 points.

Though if they trade out their first rounder then that tally reduces drastically to 2,531.

Say Walter gets bid on at #3, and Rogers and Read get bid on at #12 and #15 (fairly conservative) they would need 3,691 points to match all bids.

How do they make it work if they trade out their first completely, as opposed to trading back?

I think if we made a deal with them we'd need to swing them our second rounder at least.

If brockman goes to eagles we grab one of their second round picks 19 (with something like an f3 going back) or ports 2nd (34). 19 on its own would be enough, or 34 bundled with dogs second, both scenarios give them approx. 1000 points. Also no harm to grab a later pick they won’t use (like 61) to help with McCabe bid match. Suns first 7 picks up to 56 worth approx 3400 points that’s about enough and that’s without them doing anything.
I’m not in the camp of giving them our first without their second coming back.
If brockman gets us pick 34
2023 3, 5, 51, 61 (probably leaves us a pick in the 40s short of a bid match)
2024 f2, f2 (suns), f3, f4
If brockman gets us 19 (the optimistic scenario)
2023 3, 5, 32, 51, 61
2024 f2, f2 (suns), f4
Then trade 32 on the night for a pick in the early to mid 40s and improve our 2024 hand.

 

[RX Hawk]

Our F1 for Dees picks 17*& 23* or Crows picks 20* & 24* on traded to the Suns with pick 32* for pick 5. This is our last big National draft before we go hard next with trades and free agents to fill list gap needs in 12 months time. The emergence of a Ramsden, Ryan, DGB or maybe McCabe sooner than expected can quickly change the landscape in terms of list needs.
Pick 3 Duursma and Pick 5 Watson would give us what we don’t have and desperately need - X factor up forward moving forward. If Brocky goes home we go hard for Flying Ryan!

Hmmm... I don't mind this.

 

[FB19]

Our F1 for Dees picks 17*& 23* or Crows picks 20* & 24* on traded to the Suns with pick 32* for pick 5. This is our last big National draft before we go hard next with trades and free agents to fill list gap needs in 12 months time. The emergence of a Ramsden, Ryan, DGB or maybe McCabe sooner than expected can quickly change the landscape in terms of list needs.
Pick 3 Duursma and Pick 5 Watson would give us what we don’t have and desperately need - X factor up forward moving forward. If Brocky goes home we go hard for Flying Ryan!

Like the creativity, but my question would be why wouldn’t the dees simply add their second rounder and get the suns first this year? The answer is the suns won’t simply trade their first for points this year only regardless of how many that would be (pardon the pun) pointless. They have what they need. Only reason to move pick 5 is to improve 2024 after ensuring they have the 2023 points they need, but as A1fromDay1 has said on our chat they have a lot of options to secure that. It’s the 2024 offer that will swing the suns 2023 first negotiation so we are well placed.

 

[chopflop]

Based on current draft watcher ratings three GCS have three players in the top 10, maybe top 15 at worst.

Loosely they're going to need around 3,500 to 4,000 points to match them all, and that's with the discount.

Right now they hold the following picks:
5 - 1,878
27 - 703
30 - 629
43 - 378
46 - 331
56 - 194
61 - 135
64 - 101
68 - 59

That equals 4,409 points.

Though if they trade out their first rounder then that tally reduces drastically to 2,531.

Say Walter gets bid on at #3, and Rogers and Read get bid on at #12 and #15 (fairly conservative) they would need 3,691 points to match all bids.

How do they make it work if they trade out their first completely, as opposed to trading back?

I think if we made a deal with them we'd need to swing them our second rounder at least.

They will aim to put together a bounty of second rounders.

They will need to trade players. That's the key.

Personally, I think Rogers will be the one to slip a touch. Could be closer to 20 on the night. Similar to how Gulden slid.

 

[matey]

After reading some of this I now look like this!

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I must inform you Brant that I have completely changed my mind. After hearing an informed football person on a highly respected radio station share a thought that likely came to him in the shower, I now think this is not only likely, but certain to happen.

In fact, I hadn't even considered that this deal may involve parting with our prized future second rounder, and I now worry the deal is skewed too heavily in GWS' favour.

Did you just call Tom Morris informed and SEN highly respected? Might want to lie down there.

 

[ML4Hodgy]

Based on current draft watcher ratings three GCS have three players in the top 10, maybe top 15 at worst.

Loosely they're going to need around 3,500 to 4,000 points to match them all, and that's with the discount.

Right now they hold the following picks:
5 - 1,878
27 - 703
30 - 629
43 - 378
46 - 331
56 - 194
61 - 135
64 - 101
68 - 59

That equals 4,409 points.

Though if they trade out their first rounder then that tally reduces drastically to 2,531.

Say Walter gets bid on at #3, and Rogers and Read get bid on at #12 and #15 (fairly conservative) they would need 3,691 points to match all bids.

How do they make it work if they trade out their first completely, as opposed to trading back?

I think if we made a deal with them we'd need to swing them our second rounder at least.

Let’s say they free up 4 list spots. After trading out pick 5, They’ve got just over 2000 points, which covers Walter at pick 2. They would be easily able to trade to get another 200 points as ‘spare’
Read at 12 is worth 1000pts. They trade their future 2nd for picks 30 and 42. He’s done, they’ve still got 200 spare.
Leaving Rogers at 15 worth 926 points. They’ve got 200 points spare, and they swap their future third for about pick 48.
They’re about 400 points short at that point - they could make that up by better trades, or trading someone out.

So instead of having their future second and third, they’ve got our future 1st, which is a vastly superior result for them (not withstanding that they treat picks like Monopoly money).