Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[HedgeFund]

You are cherry picking from a great draft though as it certainly wasn’t our array of 2005 and 2006 early picks in Ellis, Dowler and Thorp.

It’s purely about quality of the individuals which is a judgment call. In some drafts several picks will be the way to go, in other drafts individuals will stand out. That’s the assessment clubs will be undertaking in assessing how far ahead of others they determine Reid is. I’m not welded one way or the other and don’t know enough myself but if Reid is assessed as being that level above, I’m comfortable moving multiple pieces

We muffed those picks, no doubt. However we nailed the 3 from 2004 and those 3 players collectively contributed more to our success than Hodge could ever do.

You can’t get the picks right or wrong if you don’t have them can you?

 

[Brant]

We didn’t win those flags because we got Hodge and the Croad back. It was falling to 2nd last in 2004 and picking Lewis, Franklin & Roughead in that draft which helped much better. Three picks from the first 7 gave us three players close to, and one probably better, than Luke Hodge.

I was just going to post the same thing.
How is this bit being acknowledged?

Hodge would've always been Hodge, but he wouldn't be the 2008 Champion we know without 2004 & wouldn't be the 2013/4/5 Champion without about 12x other guys...

I'd love Reid, but he's not worth the cost to us - right now. Best case scenario IMO - he goes to WCE & demands a trade home end of 2025. Next best, he goes to North & nominates us at end of 2025.

By that time, we've added 2x more Top 10 Picks & probably another 1-3 FA & he's more into us that we are into him!

 

[H00t]

you actually can have too many mids (bulldogs 2021 GF team proved this - Bont, Macrae, Libba, Dunkley, Treloar, Hunter, Bailey Smith - got absolutely caned by Oliver Petracca and Viney)

Its an even bigger problem when you don't have forwards to kick a winning score as last time I checked you need to score more goals than your opponent to win (but I am a woke immigrant who might not have got all of the subtleties of the game just yet)

Dogs lost because their mids and defenders refuse to defend and only want to play one way footy. Up until their implosion they were well on top and really should have run away with it. Dogs would have won at least another flag or two if not for Bevo.

Midfield dominance is the most important thing in kicking a bigger score these days. Especially when one player McKercher has been better performed so far.

 

[CHUBBSS]

Dogs lost because their mids and defenders refuse to defend and only want to play one way footy. Up until their implosion they were well on top and really should have run away with it. Dogs would have won at least another flag or two if not for Bevo.

Midfield dominance is the most important thing in kicking a bigger score these days. Especially when one player McKercher has been better performed so far.

And bevo drove the lambo off the cliff.

Dunkley was culture destroying, seen treloar talk about it? How their treating smith, see how they sacked Wallis just on a phone call.

That club is a management disgrace at the moment but their giant egos means they have no clue and continue to hit the gas as they launch off the cliff

 

[peetoo]

does Riley Beveridge even do footy.

That last sentence is a disturbing read

If you squint he looks like carey

 

[peetoo]

And bevo drove the lambo off the cliff.

Dunkley was culture destroying, seen treloar talk about it? How their treating smith, see how they sacked Wallis just on a phone call.

That club is a management disgrace at the moment but their giant egos means they have no clue and continue to hit the gas as they launch off the cliff

Don’t knock the culture which delivered us Brian lake

 

[HedgeFund]

Dogs lost because their mids and defenders refuse to defend and only want to play one way footy. Up until their implosion they were well on top and really should have run away with it. Dogs would have won at least another flag or two if not for Bevo.

Midfield dominance is the most important thing in kicking a bigger score these days. Especially when one player McKercher has been better performed so far.

Correct - Melbourne also had Angus Brayshaw and Ed Langdon in their midfield (playing mainly on the wings against Smith / Hunter).

Those two blokes are excellent defensively minded wingmen / mids.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

It’s impossible to measure but logically a huge part of this is that number 1 picks typically go to basket case clubs. Like in any profession you learn from your mentors and from the culture and standards in the organisation you work in. Put a gun graduate in any industry into a dreadful business surrounded by incompetent colleagues and they are very unlikely to reach their potential unless they get out and go somewhere else where they can learn properly

Hodge was one of the only number 1 picks who didn’t go to the wooden spooner. Ugle-Hagan and Horne-Francis will be interesting watches for the same reason, as will Ashcroft and Daicos who both should have gone number 1 but didn’t and instead went to very good clubs as father sons where they are shooting the lights out

If I was Harley Reid I’d be desperate for Melbourne to somehow trade up from pick 4 so he can learn from Petracca, Oliver, Viney and co in a strong side and good system

Agreed

Jack Watts was pretty much sent down that famous river without a paddle when he was drafted by the Dee's at number 1. I know Watts had his issues but it was very unfair to expect a skinny 18 year old to turn around the fortunes of a basket case club like Melbourne was. Totally unrealistic amount of pressure.

Even JHF looks a totally different player now he is at a well run club in Port as opposed to Norf.

All rookies need a strong core of senior players to learn from, like you say it's why strong clubs like the Pies, Lions, Swans, etc always do so well with their draftees.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

i think retaining 3 top ~5-10 talents will very very often beat betting on a single top 1 talent. for example i would take Roughead Franklin and Lewis over just Hodge. although I can understand that others may still take Hodge. but over the years i don't think there are many drafts where ud say pick 1 had a better outcome than 3 others in the top 10 (if u randomly select #3,6,8, for example).

i don't mind it as it is high-risk high-reward. but i think the philosophy that a champion team beats out a team of champions will hold true and we would prefer to keep building talent across the board rather than dilute it into a select few players.

 

[hfc70]

Will leave it to Sam & MM to decide if Reid is our Messiah…….or just a Norfy boy !

 

[Dewnior]

How are we going to do that? We have no currency worth future firsts, outside of Newcombe and Sicily.

Not sure if serious but the following players on our list would all garner a minimum first round draft pick (not that you'd necessarily want to trade them);

Will Day
Josh Weddle
Luke Breust
James Sicily
Mitch Lewis
Josh Ward
Jai Newcombe
CJ
Amon
Frenchie

And you could mount acase for Worpel and Hardwick to be added to that list.

 

[FB19]

At the end of the day, Eagles select Curtin with Pick 1 - job done

By job done do you mean sack everyone turn off the lights and close the joint down?

 

[FB19]

I would trade Pick 3 , future 2, and Brockman for Reid

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

The eagles list manager be like

 

[FB19]

I've seen this point a bit, but let's be clear here. Reid is the best forward in the draft, he is definitely the best back in the draft, and he's pretty much equal with McKercher as a mid. Players with Reid's football nous to play as a one-on-one defender, an interceptor, a clearance mid, a forward target, and a general forward simply do not exist. Couple that with the athletic profile, his strength without being overbulked too young, and his good skills, and you have a player worth paying up for. Go watch the replay of his VFL game for Essendon, or a few of his champs games. He's a player that can play anywhere, and as he builds his stamina can move into the midfield and be a real threat to the comp. Duursma and Watson look good, and there are some players next year that look to be very good prospects, but no one has the upside of Harley.

This is just my opinion, but if we have a chance to get Reid for a price the club thinks is reasonable then we would be madmen not to take it. I think a reasonable deal could be done, and I'd be happy if that included a future 1st and our current pick.

That being said, I don't think it'll happen. He'll probably end up at the Roos or Melbourne.

Totally agree you don’t get many shots to draft an out and out star who can play in multiple positions. Pick 3,29,f1 for 1,54 (putting aside brockman for 38 done separately) I think is pretty close to the best deal they will get. 3 plus likely top 6 future plus a second, dees can’t get near that. We still have enough points for McCabe, we minimise the list turnover which I think is important as we build a group together and bring in Gresham and McKay as FA.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Not sure if serious but the following players on our list would all garner a minimum first round draft pick (not that you'd necessarily want to trade them);

Will Day
Josh Weddle
Luke Breust
James Sicily
Mitch Lewis
Josh Ward
Jai Newcombe
CJ
Amon
Frenchie

And you could mount acase for Worpel and Hardwick to be added to that list.

Nuke would probably be worth a top 3 pick or multiple 1sts which is insane to think about considering how we picked him up.

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

I agree that you do need forwards however I”d be taking best available of the three.
McKercher/Duursma/Watson.
Go all in on forwards through FA the following year.

And if we don't manage to get any? We'll have a great midfield that's winning the ball with no-one to kick it to.
The point is we have a great midfield now wouldn't you agree? Nash, Day, Duke & Worpel with Ward & Mackenzie still to come. We need tall forwards to kick it to. Lewis alone wont do us any good. We're getting McCabe and that's a start.

That said I can tell you from my info that our focus at the moment is between Duursma & Watson. McKercher hasn't been mentioned much. That may change by November but if the draft was tomorrow it would be 60/40 Duursma/Watson.
And Watson is heavily in our thinking because he addresses the other hole - with Brocky leaving, that of a dangerous small forward.

And, we're not looking at trading up for pick 1. Sorry folks but it wont happen. We're more interested in possibly getting another top ten pick instead.

I'm not going to insult you all by proclaiming I'm ITK. By November I could be completely wrong. I'm just telling you what I know currently from someone I trust.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Nuke would probably be worth a top 3 pick or multiple 1sts which is insane to think about considering how we picked him up.

Of course we wouldn't ever trade him though.

Just the thought of it makes me feel

 

[Dewnior]

And if we don't manage to get any? We'll have a great midfield that's winning the ball with no-one to kick it to.

Didn't seem to stop the Dogs and Demons winning their flags.

 

[FB19]

If Sam is right and this is the last year we hit the draft then I hope that means we trade up for Reid or we get the suns pick and I am happy with either. Hopefully dogs give up 17 for hollands then suns have half the points they need and our future first becomes very appealing.
Slot McKay at FB and Gresham at HF for nothing, Reid HF for pick 1. McCabe develops at box hill. In place of Reid draft Duursma at HF and Watson in FP. Either of those look good to me.

 

[The Seaword]

We traded Croad & McPharlin when we finished 3rd after losing the prelim final in 2001.

We got Hodge, then we fell down the ladder to almost grab the spoon in 2004, and finish third bottom in 2005. At that stage the trade looked like a complete bust.

Seven years after it was done the Croad / McPharlin trade looked a lot better.

Imagine waiting 7 years to realise a trade ended up benefiting your club?

I disagree, hodge looked like a gun by 2005, finished 7th in the brownlow, we got croad back by 2004 (first round we smashed Melbourne and I thought we were going to win the premiership), if anything mcpharlin took 7 years at their end to look anything which was the net result in the end: hodge for mcpharlin. The trade at the time was hard to swallow because of losing croad but it was obvious hodge was ok. Our problems in 2004 + 2005 ran deeper than the hodge trade.

 

[Alsmypal]

And if we don't manage to get any? We'll have a great midfield that's winning the ball with no-one to kick it to.
The point is we have a great midfield now wouldn't you agree? Nash, Day, Duke & Worpel with Ward & Mackenzie still to come. We need tall forwards to kick it to. Lewis alone wont do us any good. We're getting McCabe and that's a start.

That said I can tell you from my info that our focus at the moment is between Duursma & Watson. McKercher hasn't been mentioned much. That may change by November but if the draft was tomorrow it would be 60/40 Duursma/Watson.
And Watson is heavily in our thinking because he addresses the other hole - with Brocky leaving, that of a dangerous small forward.

And, we're not looking at trading up for pick 1. Sorry folks but it wont happen. We're more interested in possibly getting another top ten pick instead.

I'm not going to insult you all by proclaiming I'm ITK. By November I could be completely wrong. I'm just telling you what I know currently from someone I trust.

I think our midfield is good not great and lacks a goal kicking midfielder. A grade elite talent.
Only reason McKercher is not being mentioned is because we believe he won’t be on the board. I’m hoping that’s not the case.
It would be mad not to take best available at this stage of a rebuild.
McCabe will be lucky to get a game next year.
Not sure when you’re planning on winning a premiership but I’m not fussed if it’s just Lewis next year as I still believe we are a few years away from that.
The team needs to keep building the best available until suitable forwards become available whether that’s draft or free agency but right now McKercher is in front of the other two imo.
I’ll take a Gresham through FA over Watson and keep pick 3.

 

[Dewnior]

For those arguing against trading up to Pick 1 on the basis that Pick 1 is rarely if ever the best player of that draft, then I'll counter with success is not just based on talent alone but a myriad of factors none moreso than the developmemt program of the drafting club.

In the AFL era, we have traded up to Pick 1 once and no sensible Hawk fan would admit they would have preferred another player from that draft class (even GAJ).

I'll back the club to make the right decision and if that is to take Reid, then like Hodge, I am confident we will turn him into one of the best players to have ever played for our club (barring serious injuries)

 

[HedgeFund]

Not sure if serious but the following players on our list would all garner a minimum first round draft pick (not that you'd necessarily want to trade them);

Will Day
Josh Weddle
Luke Breust
James Sicily
Mitch Lewis
Josh Ward
Jai Newcombe
CJ
Amon
Frenchie

And you could mount acase for Worpel and Hardwick to be added to that list.

YES
YES
NO - too old
YES
NO - too brittle
NO - insufficient consistent form
YES
NO - injury prone and played VFL mostly this year
NO - too old
Maybe

IMHO - I make it only 4 players on that list who could potentially command a 1st Rd pick.

Newcombe, Day, Sicily & Weddle

 

[Turly]

YES
YES
NO - too old
YES
NO - too brittle
NO - insufficient consistent form
YES
NO - injury prone and played VFL mostly this year
NO - too old
Maybe

IMHO - I make it only 4 players on that list who could potentially command a 1st Rd pick.

Newcombe, Day, Sicily & Weddle

Lewis would easily land a first round pick.

 

[daniel23]

YES
YES
NO - too old
YES
NO - too brittle
NO - insufficient consistent form
YES
NO - injury prone and played VFL mostly this year
NO - too old
Maybe

IMHO - I make it only 4 players on that list who could potentially command a 1st Rd pick.

Newcombe, Day, Sicily & Weddle

You're surely having a laugh .