Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

2024 Picks



2025 Picks

 

[grumbleguts]

Great news about Barrass.

Dream world for me is we give up a F1, even if it means we give up a bit more for him. Means we keep a first round pick in this strong / even draft, and continue to bring in some more young talent.

Dreamworld is we give them next year's first rounder and get their second rounder in return. (These will be one pick apart.)

 

[Bugs1977]

He had me with his Handbagger hate. Can we keep him?

 

[Alite]

Am I the only one who feels like we constantly buy high and sell low?

Listed below are some of the high profile deals we have been involved in recently....

* 34yr 4 time premiership player, Brownlow medallist and premiership captain Sam Mitchell and 54 and 72 to West Coast for picks 52, 70 and 88.

* 30yr old 4 time premiership player Jordan Lewis and 57 and 68 to Melbourne for 48 and 66 in return.

* 33yr old 4 time premiership player and threepeat premiership captain Luke Hodge and 44 to Brisbane in exchange for picks 43 and 75.

* 31yr old 3 time premiership player Isaac Smith to Geelong for 3rd round free agency compensation.

* 30yr old Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell to Collingwood for Cooper Stephens and picks 41 and 50

* 28yr old Jaeger O'Meara to Fremantle in exchange for a future-second round pick and Lloyd Meek (This one turned out good)

I acknowledge that some of those guys were older but Lewis Mitchell Smith and O'Meara were all very close to Barrass's age and still had a lot of footy left in them (Smith won a ****ing Norm Smith for God's sake). I'm just struggling to understand why we trade like that. For me pick. 14 is plenty for a 29yr old bloke who has said himself he will probably retire early.

Buy high and sell low.
Well sort of... but overall No.

I'm not sure you are seeing the Big picture.
The Hawks say that they are not in the AFL for success that ends in finals.
The goal is the premiership.

Clarko tried to extend the premiership window and could not make it work with O'Mera and Mitchell. Once that was known, the players that you are referring to, namely: S Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge, T Mitchel became essentially best 22 list cloggers.
Isaac Smith we did not want to lose nor Gunston.

One can easily say that trading each of those players was a positive for the player (Yes Hodge retired and came back and Lewis was not happy but got over it).

But your point is that Hawthorn "lost" by being nice.

The only necessary answer to your question is that Sam Mitchell was given a nice exit from the club to become a player and then a coach for another club. And as he had a good feeling about that Hawks (call it good Kama) he has come back and masterminded what is the most astonishing story in the 2024 AFL. If the Hawks win 4 more games it will be the greatest comeback in AFL history.

But don't forget what would have happened if Tom Mitchell stayed. Who would Worpel be with Titch in the team?
Issac was a loss, but who has emerged? I can think of 4 for the wing.

Some argue that "winning" trades is a zero sum game. Think Dodo.
The best trades are positive sum gains. See: Meek, Ginni (+ a trade position upgrade haha), Chol, Impy, Frost & Scrimshaw. These were positive sum trades for both teams.

I love the line in Moneyball where Brad Pitt's character (Billy Bean) says to an aging star something like,"We are not paying you for who you were, we are trying to squeeze the last out of who you are now". (Note: it did not actually happen but was a great line).

That is what we traded. Teams needed Our Guys for their last bit of football and their knowledge, and we got what we could get while investing in our youth, and an intent on getting silverware sooner, rather than later.

Evidence shows, it was good trading

 

[Alite]

My understanding is his exit meeting was today.

I cannot see him staying and I think Saints are content with compensation and cap space rather than continue to up the contract.

Only thing stopping him coming to Hawthorn would be some black ops dealing like Sydney had with buddy that catches everyone off guard.

I've heard same as you directly from 2 people who talk to Josh regularly and they think he's going to Hawthorn. Though they stopped short of admitting they knew or he told them. Just the vibe they got from him.

This is inline with what we have seen in interviews with him, his manager and Ross Lyon dodging the question or just looking really uncomfortable by it.

Training before the Carlton game a number of saints fans also reported talking to him and walking away convinced he was leaving.

My 4th hand info is definite on Josh Battle coming to the Hawks. But I have no confidence in 4th hand info.

 

[kazzooka]

Dreamworld is we give them next year's first rounder and get their second rounder in return. (These will be one pick apart.)

Tigers locked up next years spoon already I think. If all those guys leave they'll struggle to win a game. Only 2 wins and they are weakening their side a lot.

And we aren't sure if Yze can coach yet.

 

[seysearles]

Buy high and sell low.
Well sort of... but overall No.

I'm not sure you are seeing the Big picture.
The Hawks say that they are not in the AFL for success that ends in finals.
The goal is the premiership.

Clarko tried to extend the premiership window and could not make it work with O'Mera and Mitchell. Once that was known, the players that you are referring to, namely: S Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge, T Mitchel became essentially best 22 list cloggers.
Isaac Smith we did not want to lose nor Gunston.

One can easily say that trading each of those players was a positive for the player (Yes Hodge retired and came back and Lewis was not happy but got over it).

But your point is that Hawthorn "lost" by being nice.

The only necessary answer to your question is that Sam Mitchell was given a nice exit from the club to become a player and then a coach for another club. And as he had a good feeling about that Hawks (call it good Kama) he has come back and masterminded what is the most astonishing story in the 2024 AFL. If the Hawks win 4 more games it will be the greatest comeback in AFL history.

But don't forget Tom Mitchell. Who would Worpel be with Tich in the team?
Issac was a loss, but who has emerged?

Some argue that "winning" trades is a zero sum game. Think Dodo.
The best trades are positive sum gains.

Meek, Ginni (+ a trade position upgrade haha), Chol, Impy, Frost & Scrimshaw. These were positive sum trades for both teams.

I love the line in Moneyball where Brad Pitt's character (Billy Bean) says to an aging star something like,"We are not paying you for who you were, we are trying to squeeze the last out of who you are now". (Note: it did not actually happen but was a great line).

That is what we traded. Teams needed Our Guys for their last bit of football and their knowledge, and we got what we could get while investing in our youth, and an intent on getting silverware sooner, rather than later.

Evidence shows, it was good trading

I just remember, at the time, people saying that we would get a good reputation as being easy to deal with which would benefit us in future trades. Now here we are negotiating with the team that we gave our 300 game Brownlow medallist premiership captain (who sewed the seeds for their 2018 flag) to for free, and in return, we get no good-will whatsoever. 2 first round pics for a 29yr old with a history of back and neck issues!

 

[kazzooka]

My 4th hand info is definite on Jost coming to the Hawks. But I have no confidence in 4th hand info.

Don't forget you heard it straight from the coaches mouth too.

 

[Davo-27]

the media will say we trade for premierships, but they forget most of the champions we have traded in were unwanted/not given opportunities by their clubs, they conveniently leave out that important detail... (whether it be the 2013-2015 team or future success)

 

[kazzooka]

I just remember people saying that we would get a good reputation as being easy to trade with us which would benefit us in future trades and now here we are negotiating with the team that we gave our 300game Brownlow medallist premiership captain go to for free and sew the seeds for their 2018 and we get no good will whatsoever.

Yep, they still owe us for the flag we got them.

No coincidence that Melbourne also got a flag after Lewis did his 3 years there spreading the virus of winning all around the club.

So Petracca for pick 66 seems fair to me.

Barrass for pick 88.

And Brisbane and Geelong can get on their payment plans now too. Collingwood have paid their debt for Mitchell with Ginnivan and the pick upgrade.

 

[Bugs1977]

Probably not, it's an often rehashed subject on this board - but let me add this. You are right that we have sold low, and that's because we were selling. When you make it known that you're moving a player on and they're not in your plans you lose your ability to play hard ball. Anyone who has ever received above expected value has maintained to the bitter end that they want to keep the player, every man and their dog knew what we wanted to do with Sam, Jordan and Tom Mitchell.

I'd argue we got fair value for O'Meara, and with Smith we had no choice. He wanted to go, we got whatever compensation his deal allowed, it's not within our control to get more or less for him. Similar for Hodge who retired.

So really it's just Lewis, and the two Mitchells we "sold low".

In terms of buying high, sure we paid a lot for a couple of players who didn't work out - but recent history?

• 20yo Scrimshaw was a 4th rounder
• 27yo Amon we got as a FA, under his expected value
• 23yo Impey was ostensibly Pick 34
• 27yo Chol we got for a future 2nd round pick tied to Brisbane that we received in exchange for a mid-season draftee
• 21yo Massimo D'Ambrosio for a couple of late picks that weren't used
• 21yo Ginnivan for what is now an earlier 2nd round pick than we gave up

If you want to see a club that has sold low and bought high, you'll find it, but I'd argue it has been the opposite and our turn around is evidence of that.

Most of those moves you listed are when the list manager is actually allowed to do his job uninterrupted and without too much input from others. I'd assume the buy high moves were ones like the JOM or Chad trades which at the time Wrighty would've been under huge pressure to get done.

 

[KermitJagger]

Most of those moves you listed are when the list manager is actually allowed to do his job uninterrupted and without too much input others. I'd assume the buy high moves were ones like the JOM or Chad trades which at the time Wrighty would've been under huge pressure to get done.

Yeah that's the other point. I'm not sure you can blame the current list management team for any of the more recent "buy high" instances, those were 7 years ago now - different coach, different list manager, different decision makers. Would say that recently we've been quite retiscent to give up too much for players.

 

[kazzooka]

the media will say we trade for premierships, but they forget most of the champions we have traded in were unwanted by their clubs, they conveniently leave out that important detail...

This was the true story of the 2013 flag too. Hale, Gibson, lake, Guerra, Breust, Sewell, Poupolo, Bailey, Stratton, Hill, Smith, Simpkin, Mitchell, Sheils 14 guys who all had incredible stories of hardships to get on a list, people doubting them, getting told they won't play AFL for the first 4 years, battle injury, fight for a spot, play 2s, get traded or delisted.

Sure we had the Hodge, Roughhead, Franklin types who just dominated juniors walked picked up first round and didn't need to learn any names at box hill but so many of the side had so much to prove.

 

[kazzooka]

Yeah that's the other point. I'm not sure you can blame the current list management team for any of the more recent "buy high" instances, those were 7 years ago now - different coach, different list manager, different decision makers. Would say that recently we've been quite retiscent to give up too much for players.

I don't think we've traded a first round pick since Wingard have we?

 

[grumbleguts]

I would rather drive Harley across the Nullabour to the 2026 wooden spooners myself than see him play for those geriatric goal post shifting f**ks. Even if it meant getting nothing back in return via the PSD. Hope you’re reading this Stephen Wells you prick.

Um. I'm just gonna say this, kind of put it on the table, but your user name has eagle where hawk should be. You speak Hawthorn fluently.

 

[Alite]

Yep, they still owe us for the flag we got them.

No coincidence that Melbourne also got a flag after Lewis did his 3 years there spreading the virus of winning all around the club.

So Petracca for pick 66 seems fair to me.

Barrass for pick 88.

And Brisbane and Geelong can get on their payment plans now too. Collingwood have paid their debt for Mitchell with Ginnivan and the pick upgrade.

If You are trying to say that commentators are saying that West Coast will ask for more than the Hawks 1st rounder for Barrass, and you dot like it, then I agree. I have already argued that in past posts. As much as the Hawks need a player like him, I'd also be happy to pass if the draft cost and length of contract is too high.
He is not a Brian Lake. And if he was, how long did Lake get in his contract? 2 years! Pay Barrass his value to the team... which is high (something West Coast have failed to do). If his back holds out, continue to pay him great money year by year.

 

[brad sue well]

1 year and its really not, Hustwaite is behind Ward hence Ward being selected before him all year.

Genuine reply… isn’t Ward being tried on the wing and HH, inside mid? To compare them isn’t accurate?

My preference was to see HH come in for Day but this weekend showed he is further behind than I hoped. I can see him playing a lot of games in the right environment. No games this year? We have had a good injury run… I hope he stays, does seem an AFL player of some sort with nice attributes.

I want Ward to succeed, seems a good person as well. I see bits of promise but I am not sure if I have rose coloured glasses.

 

[brad sue well]

I cannot express how much I agree with this sentiment. Let Reid go elsewhere for nothing rather than trade with Geelong.

Regarding Barrass whatever you pay for him (and I'm not here to argue that point) you'll be getting one exceptional player.
My brother is currently gutted as Barrass was his favourite player. The guy is an intercept king and could very well take you to a premiership.

He is welcome to come across, besides, we have his favourite player.

 

[CHUBBSS]

Now old project dingley is claiming he is an insider of the club

Hilarious

He built Dingley brick by brick…


It’s not built with bricks

 

[OneEyedHawk]

Yep! Spot on. If he goes through his exit meeting (that I assume happens some time this week) without announcing that he has signed a deal with the Saints, then pencil in Battle as a Hawk. . Though use Staedtler Mars Lumograph Pencil 12B pencil as it is the closest thing to a pen.

I also have 4th hand info (yes 4th hand = from Josh to A to B to C to me) that he is coming to the Hawks. Not joking I have the converted 4th hand info.

What I can say with absolute confidence is that we will know when Josh announces what he will do.

Personally, it is my belief (based on the info available to me) that Battle will be a part of the Hawks journey in 2025.

I can say with certainty that he’s coming.

Happy to put my BF account up as surety on that call too.




On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[I got the outside word]

And since the point Rioli has developed into an AA calibre HBF.

What would you trade Moore for?

Bolton is a matchwinning star, plus he us exactly what Fremantle need. One pick in the low teens would be a terrible offer.

Over the last four seasons he is averaging:

Touches - 18.92
Marks - 3.60
Tackles - 2.61
Goals - 1.49
Score Involvements - 6.53
Goal Assists - 0.76

And to be fair to Bolton if we go back a further two years the stats are still similar.

I think there is an argument for Rioli and Bolton with Fremantle looking for the missing pieces and Gold Coast doing what ever it is that Gold Coast do. As individual players I think they are being over valued though. I guess with some of the contributing factors they may end up fetching these prices, the Tigers are going to need them too.

Baker and Graham though, I can’t justify their prices being put forward.

 

[ahhhhhh]

The thing that excites me most about Barrass, is what it frees up Weddle to do.

 

[Lickmesocks]

I think there is an argument for Rioli and Bolton with Fremantle looking for the missing pieces and Gold Coast doing what ever it is that Gold Coast do. As individual players I think they are being over valued though. I guess with some of the contributing factors they may end up fetching these prices, the Tigers are going to need them too.

Baker and Graham though, I can’t justify their prices being put forward.

Finally someone else has picked up on this.

Truck Ralph saying Baker is worth pick 10 .If any club hands over pick 10 for Liam Baker they are cooked.

Here is what I believe these players are worth.

-Shai Bolton 1 top 10 pick max or 2 picks around 15-25 mark only because he has 3 years to run on his contract.
-Liam Baker a pick around 16-20 max
-Daniel Rioli a pick around 10-15 max m
- Also since when did Angus Graham learn to run and hit a target by foot to be a highly desirable free agent?

All these experts saying Richmond will have 5 picks inside the top 12 need to stop barracking.

 

[MazHawk]

Weddle & Sicily.
This has always been the major issue with me to this trade and why I've been saying since day dot that our first rounder (currently 12 and sliding) is so definitely worth it for someone who will plug a large hole to the extent that it will release weapons like Weddle & Sic and on top of all that happens to also be one of the best full-backs in the league.

 

[threesixpio]

The thing that excites me most about Barrass, is what it frees up Weddle to do.

And Sic!

 

[Hawk the Talk]

Dom’s social media manager

I hope for their sake, they’re not paid per follower.