Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Brant]

This strategy is basically saying that Barrass is the missing piece of the puzzle and that's what what i'm really struggling to believe.

After numerous posts, I reckon you're starting to get it.

Just focus on this part.

Then smile. For like the next 3-5 years. You'll see why...

I want more success and less of those bad patches. Our next years form is still very unknown. If our list was 2 years along paying that for Barrass would be more palatable for mine.

Even with our successful years our best trades have been the cheaper ones. Paying less in picks gives us both more chances to trade in players next year or an earlier pick than if we trade it. Both options will help building long term success.

It is known, but I don't want to ruin the surprise.

As an aside, don't make plans for late September

Even with our successful years our best trades have been the cheaper ones. Paying less in picks gives us both more chances to trade in players next year or an earlier pick than if we trade it. Both options will help building long term success.

A lot of our 'cheaper trades' look 'cheap' in hindsight - not at the time. Take Burgoyne, for example.

 

[hawkinoz]

if Hawks fans are willing to risk it with 2 Firsts then add the R2 picks of both teams to mix as well to balance the books

13+30+F1(16) for
Barass+23+F2(20)

Eagles can save face with their 2 first rounders spiel

None of this is to say Barrass won't be loved once we wears our colors. We are not every club but neither is anything a sure thing, making top 4 is hard work. Eagles play half their games home, so most likely they are going up under a new coach with fresh ideas & a improved list.

the comments in X back up value proposition of realists IMO. Don't overpay

 

[butlers hawks]

The guy is 29. What I dont understand is what would he be worth if he was 26 (2 top 10's) ? 24(2 top 5's)? 22 (3 top 5's)?

The days of the hulking full back that could save you 5 goals a game have been gone for 15 years. I mean with Hawkins retiring there are literally no gorilla FF's left in the league (save possibly Hogan who isn't even that big). I just dont get how Barrass improves our backline (which is already good) by that much especially with another very good tall coming in the form of Battle (a better player). I would much rather take Battle for free (thank you very much) and those 2 firsts to the draft, even if they dont strike gold, and we end up with 2 more McKenzie Ward types which is about par for those sort of picks. Frankly a lot of the gold in the draft seems to come in that 10-20 zone anyway. This strategy is basically saying that Barrass is the missing piece of the puzzle and that's what what i'm really struggling to believe.

it really doesnt matter as they arent trading for him at that age however 12 months ago the asking price was two firsts straight up until Barrass decided to stay

if he played in Melbourne and people saw more of him they might realize how good of a player he is

while their held up this year it had Scrimshaw and Weddle playing on the bigger guys, more often than not this worked but can we really hope neither get injured in that role again for another year?

again, while it is a "first round pick" the fact that the early second rounder is coming back softens it a lot

 

[butlers hawks]

the comments in X back up value proposition of realists IMO. Don't overpay

This is I think where the issue is...some people think the two firsts for Barrass and a second coming back is an overpay.

I simply dont but very interested to see how it plays out

 

[hawkinoz]

then there should be nop big deal for eagles to slide down from 23 to 30.

The potential for their F2 to slide up from 19 is ZERO. The potential for it to slide higher is lot more. Given they play home, it will be around pick 23-24.

The potential for our F1 to slide down from 16 is only 2 spots maximum while it can slide up easily to piuck 8-10 too..

So risks are more for us, needs to be offset with swap of R2's

 

[butlers hawks]

then there should be nop big deal for eagles to slide down from 23 to 30.

The potential for their F2 to slide up from 19 is ZERO. The potential for it to slide higher is lot more. Given they play home, it will be around pick 23-24.

The potential for our F1 to slide down from 16 is only 2 spots maximum while it can slide up easily to piuck 8-10 too..

So risks are more for us, needs to be offset with swap of R2's

we are also the buyer

so it is on us to take the risk. Otherwise West Coast keep him


It will get done, it will shock us all in one of two ways...hopefully its the shock we got him cheap but history shows its more likely to shock that we are uneasy with what we gave up

 

[TylerDurden]

Lord is one I'd be targeting.

 

[rei154]

Seems like this is a great year to not be in the first round given the depth of field.
Love the idea of us trading out of it, especially if we can land a second for this season on the back side.

 

[hawkinoz]

we are also the buyer

so it is on us to take the risk. Otherwise West Coast keep him


It will get done, it will shock us all in one of two ways...hopefully its the shock we got him cheap but history shows its more likely to shock that we are uneasy with what we gave up

They are also the seller and he has said his goodbyes, so upto them to close the deal too.

Also for all those thinking it si just a pick slide, do cater in AFL drop in priority picks to end of first round and Band 2 compo picks that come before F2.

So that's 2-3 picks of additional slide and not just a pick 16 slide to pick 19 as many are fantasising.

 

[butlers hawks]

They are also the seller and he has said his goodbyes, so upto them to close the deal too.

Also for all those thinking it si just a pick slide, do cater in AFL drop in priority picks to end of first round and Band 2 compo picks that come before F2.

So that's 2-3 picks of additional slide and not just a pick 16 slide to pick 19 as many are fantasising.

thats a big assumption to make. We dont really know yet how many will get band 2 which is what you are discussing

but yes in the same way that people are saying picks might be better or worse based on draft position, there might be some free agent compensation

or...just the same way there might be...there might be none

 

[Brant]

Seems like this is a great year to not be in the first round given the depth of field.
Love the idea of us trading out of it, especially if we can land a second for this season on the back side.

Or... could be a sweet draft to trade out of, then trade back into - the Ol' Double-Bluff trick!

*I'm not sure who we would be bluffing.
**Also not sure how we'd trade back in or for which player.
***in all honesty, I was watching Get Smart before & really just wanted to say "the Ol' Double-Bluff trick"

 

[Ned Ryerson]

You have the most negative outlook for a footy fan I've ever seen.

That’s only because bradkli stopped posting here.

 

[rei154]

Or... could be a sweet draft to trade out of, then trade back into - the Ol' Double-Bluff trick!

*I'm not sure who we would be bluffing.
**Also not sure how we'd trade back in or for which player.
***in all honesty, I was watching Get Smart before & really just wanted to say "the Ol' Double-Bluff trick"

If we don't know what we're doing, there's no way they will know what we're doing!

 

[Adebisi]

You wouldn’t do
Pick 14 and pick 16 (if we make top 4 next year)

For Barrass and pick 19

Exactly though, it’s an if, and anything can happen.
2x1st’s is nuts.

 

[FB19]

Petracca and Barrass are 2 players? Who's the third, in that deal? And don't say Battle as we get him regardless of anything else.

So we lose 2x players who played in our last final, our best key forward and 2x first rounders for 2x players past their best with serious injuries. That's essentially giving up 4 players with potentially 10 years+ left and a gun with at least 5 left. For 2 guys who have about 3-4 years left and have already played their best football. They still have good football left but its trading away 1000 potential games for about 200 max.

To be fair to me, I’m bored at work, the UK weather has turned shit and our trade period feels on railroad tracks. Also I started drinking at lunchtime. Anyway whose next to throw up a dumb hypothetical so I can get in the other side of the “you’re an idiot” meme replies?

 

[Bugs1977]

This is I think where the issue is...some people think the two firsts for Barrass and a second coming back is an overpay.

I simply dont but very interested to see how it plays out

I'm not enamoured with giving up our F1 because it limits our future flexibility for future moves. Most seem to think that a deal has already been agreed upon in principle so as you say all we can do now is wait to see how it all plays out.

We can spend as much time in here as we like debating what we feel is /isn't fair but no matter what is decided upon I think we have no choice but to back whatever is decided upon. The club is in a bloody good spot and as much as I'd hate to see us handing over our F1 the new regime hasn't made many if any poor choices the last 3-4 years.

 

[Billyc]

Imagine needing outside ball users, giving away Massimo and then chasing Finn.

 

[Brant]

Exactly though, it’s an if, and anything can happen.
2x1st’s is nuts.

If you pay $10 for something, with 2x $5 notes, but get $4 change, did it really cost $10?

 

[Bugs1977]

Seems like this is a great year to not be in the first round given the depth of field.
Love the idea of us trading out of it, especially if we can land a second for this season on the back side.

I thought the same but having 2 x 2nds in this draft with limited list spots could pose a problem

 

[Brant]

I thought the same but having 2 x 2nds in this draft with limited list spots could pose a problem

Trade them for someone needing more points than allocated to their current 1st.

Brissie is in need of points.

 

[I got the outside word]

Using points values for first round picks is pointless.

If a teams want to trade for pick 10 using pick 23 they’d need to add a pick around 12-13 to it. That’s how expensive it’s generally been to move up positions.

First round picks have the most points!

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

If you pay $10 for something, with 2x $5 notes, but get $4 change, did it really cost $10?

Or you use two $5 notes but you didn’t notice that one was actually a $10 note, and then they short change you with $2 instead of $4. Did you really pay $6?

 

[seysearles]

it really doesnt matter as they arent trading for him at that age however 12 months ago the asking price was two firsts straight up until Barrass decided to stay

This is exactly what makes no sense to me. If 28yr old Barrass is worth 2 x first rounders what is the same version of him with 4/6/8 yrs of additional service worth. They're setting his value almost as if his age is irrelevant which is what i find hard to swallow. I'm really hoping that the club is savvy enough to close it with pick 12 for Barrass. Shake hands and you're welcome West Coast. We all know that you want him off your books anyway.

 

[Dangleberry]

This is exactly what makes no sense to me. If 28yr old Barrass is worth 2 x first rounders what is the same version of him with 4/6/8 yrs of additional service worth. They're setting his value almost as if his age is irrelevant which is what i find hard to swallow. I'm really hoping that the club is savvy enough to close it with pick 12 for Barrass. Shake hands and you're welcome West Coast. We all know that you want him off your books anyway.

I completely see where you're coming from and your logic makes sense.
I'm just an armchair critic, so forgive me for butting in....but maybe in Sam's head he's not paying two firsts for Barras, he's paying 2 firsts for a couple of flags.

 

[Faraway Hawk]

I am here only for the $5 and $10 riddles.