Strategy 2024 Midprice Madness

[Lolaser]

This can only work if the Rookies are scoring well and not under 50 and also it's best 18 so MPM might be an advantage. Also your theory of trading in Midpricers after R2 means either trading out premos to get them or starting with lots of cash in the bank.
Starting with Midpricers if they are a bust are an easy downgrade to a rookie who might have been missed or possibly trading a couple 1 up and 1 down.

I think you definitely want 1-3 mid-pricers to allow for the swaps (currently have Williams, Lynch and Fisher - although Williams is closer to a top rookie than true mid-pricer).

Lets say you go with a 12 premo, those 3 mid-pricers and 15 rookies (structure allows for all the top ones). In the rounds that Williams and Lynch play, if you have one premo from each of the early byes, you will line up with 11 premos, 3 mid-pricers and be able to loop at least one rookie on to have 9 rookies total.

This means you get the best 4 rookie scores out of 9. It is very unlikely that all nine of those rookies score less than 50. Looking at my team last year and the rookies on field (plus two bench due to one less premo and one loop):

Round Two: 114 (Sheezel), 105 (Ashcroft), 78 (McKenna), 76 (Ginbey), 73 (Caminiti) 71 (Chandler), 68 (Wilmot), 67 (Constable), 55 (Goater), 52 (Mackenzie) = Average of 93.25 for the on-field rookie scores that count towards your round score.

Round Three: 120 (Sheezel), 104 (Ginbey), 95 (Baker), 90 (Chandler), 89 (Mackenzie), 80 (Ashcroft), 69 (Wilmot), 57 (McKenna), 46 (Goater) = Average of 102.25 for the on-field rookie scores that count towards your round score.

Round Four: 111 (Sheezel), 86 (McKenna), 75 (Ashcroft), 73 (Greene), 67 (Phillips), 59 (Chandler), 50 (Wilmot), 49 (Ginbey), 40 (Mackenzie) = Average of 86 for the on-field rookie scores that count towards your round score.

While these are only three rounds, and each year will differentiate, think it is a decent example of how high the rookie scores can be for the top four rookies each week.

Now what MPM does it usually take away one premo and one rookie and replace them with two mid-pricers (roughly). This means you lose the stability of a premium player and add in two mid-pricers and also get to replace the worst rookie. However, unlike previous years, you aren't dropping out a 52, 46 or 40 (the worst rookie scores in each round above) you are dropping out a 76, 90 and 73 and so the points gained aren't as high.

So, in my mind at least, you are taking on the extra risk and volatility of mid-pricers, but you aren't getting as much of the benefit of the additional scoring in those four early bye rounds.

 

[Significant]

I think you definitely want 1-3 mid-pricers to allow for the swaps (currently have Williams, Lynch and Fisher - although Williams is closer to a top rookie than true mid-pricer).

Lets say you go with a 12 premo, those 3 mid-pricers and 15 rookies (structure allows for all the top ones). In the rounds that Williams and Lynch play, if you have one premo from each of the early byes, you will line up with 11 premos, 3 mid-pricers and be able to loop at least one rookie on to have 9 rookies total.

This means you get the best 4 rookie scores out of 9. It is very unlikely that all nine of those rookies score less than 50. Looking at my team last year and the rookies on field (plus two bench due to one less premo and one loop):

Round Two: 114 (Sheezel), 105 (Ashcroft), 78 (McKenna), 76 (Ginbey), 73 (Caminiti) 71 (Chandler), 68 (Wilmot), 67 (Constable), 55 (Goater), 52 (Mackenzie) = Average of 93.25 for the on-field rookie scores that count towards your round score.

Round Three: 120 (Sheezel), 104 (Ginbey), 95 (Baker), 90 (Chandler), 89 (Mackenzie), 80 (Ashcroft), 69 (Wilmot), 57 (McKenna), 46 (Goater) = Average of 102.25 for the on-field rookie scores that count towards your round score.

Round Four: 111 (Sheezel), 86 (McKenna), 75 (Ashcroft), 73 (Greene), 67 (Phillips), 59 (Chandler), 50 (Wilmot), 49 (Ginbey), 40 (Mackenzie) = Average of 86 for the on-field rookie scores that count towards your round score.

While these are only three rounds, and each year will differentiate, think it is a decent example of how high the rookie scores can be for the top four rookies each week.

Now what MPM does it usually take away one premo and one rookie and replace them with two mid-pricers (roughly). This means you lose the stability of a premium player and add in two mid-pricers and also get to replace the worst rookie. However, unlike previous years, you aren't dropping out a 52, 46 or 40 (the worst rookie scores in each round above) you are dropping out a 76, 90 and 73 and so the points gained aren't as high.

So, in my mind at least, you are taking on the extra risk and volatility of mid-pricers, but you aren't getting as much of the benefit of the additional scoring in those four early bye rounds.

Like every year. Pick the right mid pricers, and you're set, but pick the wrong ones and your doomed. This year is no different. I'll still be going in with Williams, Guthrie, and Lynch (most likely).

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

This can only work if the Rookies are scoring well and not under 50 and also it's best 18 so MPM might be an advantage. Also your theory of trading in Midpricers after R2 means either trading out premos to get them or starting with lots of cash in the bank.
Starting with Midpricers if they are a bust are an easy downgrade to a rookie who might have been missed or possibly trading a couple 1 up and 1 down.

The problem with this assumption is injuries.

There were a lot of SC related injuries early in the season last year. It's not so easy to do corrections when trading out injuries as well. Especially if we get less trades/boosts.

Just my two cents, but it really does shape as a GNR year, given you can drop off your worst 4 rookie scores in 4 of the early rounds (and use bye players to loop, can't always loop rookies early doors). Assuming my premo's score well I'd expect my best 5 rookie scores to match MPM teams in those early rounds. And I get that sweet sweet cash gen and upgrade past them.

Having said that, there are always some MP's that are good picks. No reason there won't be some this year too.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I've currently got two MP's - Billings and Williams. Really treating them as high priced rookies.

Those picking Guthrie, I'll interested in the thinking. He's priced about 75, do you see him as a keeper M8? So averaging 105+. Or is it a case of that's the best option you can afford? Or are you happy to take 90 and bye flip him?

 

[A Bit Dusty]

I've currently got two MP's - Billings and Williams. Really treating them as high priced rookies.

Those picking Guthrie, I'll interested in the thinking. He's priced about 75, do you see him as a keeper M8? So averaging 105+. Or is it a case of that's the best option you can afford? Or are you happy to take 90 and bye flip him?

Guthrie has been in and out of my team a couple of times. If I do start him it's not with the intention of him being a keeper but if he is going at over 100 and is fit he could end up an M8. Currently I have Zilliams/Harmes/Billings/Guthrie/Chapman I doubt I will start anymore and Lynch isn't really on my radar I think he will burn a lot of people.

 

[kirbonavich]

Chapman is the only 'mid' pricer I'm looking at. The rest are a worry.

 

[TheArchitect]

Chapman is the only 'mid' pricer I'm looking at. The rest are a worry.

Need to have at least one in the forward line I reckon. Otherwise picking speculative premos or rookies

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Need to have at least one in the forward line I reckon. Otherwise picking speculative premos or rookies

Excluding Williams are MP's even needed in defence? There should be ample rookies.

Forward line a different story as you say.

 

[TheArchitect]

Excluding Williams are MP's even needed in defence? There should be ample rookies.

Forward line a different story as you say.

I don't have any. Currently just two in the forward line.

I think Ginbey is a good pick but mid-only makes it tough

 

[Significant]

I've currently got two MP's - Billings and Williams. Really treating them as high priced rookies.

Those picking Guthrie, I'll interested in the thinking. He's priced about 75, do you see him as a keeper M8? So averaging 105+. Or is it a case of that's the best option you can afford? Or are you happy to take 90 and bye flip him?

I'd assume a 100+ average which I'm very happy to lock in at that price for an early M8, ideally with enough trades left to push him to M9.

Starting squad picks are a bit different from upgrading through the season, with infinite opportunities to build a squad under a salary cap. It's all about value. If you see someone largely underpriced compared to what you think they should average, even if it is a bit unders for what you expect for the Top 10 in that position, then I jump on.

 

[Lolaser]

Like every year. Pick the right mid pricers, and you're set, but pick the wrong ones and your doomed. This year is no different. I'll still be going in with Williams, Guthrie, and Lynch (most likely).

This is true (although it is the same for rookies and premiums - pick Bont last year and it's great, pick Macrae and you're stuffed). However, there are really two questions in play here:

1. How many mid-pricers you start in your structure; and
2. Which ones you pick.

Naturally, mid-pricers are much harder picks to nail than rookies or premium as they have more variance in scoring outcomes compared to premiums and it's harder to make money than basement rookies.

For that reason, each mid-pricer you pick adds to the risk profile of your team and you need more and more to go right for it to be successful. The upside of course is that for each pick you nail, you'll have an early advantage over GnR teams points wise. This season's bye structure, in my opinion, reduces that upside while the risk remains the same.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Does a sub $600k rule mean midprice madness?

View attachment 1883771

Who are your captain options? That's really the only problem with a team like this.

 

[Duckworthy]

Who are your captain options? That's really the only problem with a team like this.

Yeah, you're right. That's the problem with the sub-$600k rule.
If you wanted to bend the rule a little......

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Good news RE: Chapman

 

[King_Steele]

Good news RE: Chapman

Emmett interests me. Surely a Monty to take Schultz role

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Given all the best 18 rounds, are we more confident in locking in the best of the best premos rather than searching for value with the 2nd tier premiums who may make the jump? What im getting at is that quite a few rookies scores will drop off so if you structure your team well around the byes you can afford to have more rookies in your team (as other posters have mentioned previously, guns n rookies appears to have an advantage this season). In that case, it might be wise to spend up on the 'assured points' rather than going for the 'full 30 depth'. By all means, if a gun is likely underpriced you should still grab them but i think spending more on the bonafide guns and starting 1 more rookie or mid-priced player instead of a premium may be the way to go.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Or maybe im just doing anything to convince myself that a genuine 6 gun midfield is the way to go.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Good news RE: Chapman

Never left my team Currently D4

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Never left my team Currently D4

Got him D3 at the moment, wouldn't be too confident on the pick if he ends up being a winger tho.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Got him D3 at the moment, wouldn't be too confident on the pick if he ends up being a winger tho.

Sounds like Sharp has the Wing almost locked up replacing Henry and with Aish on the other wing.
If Chappy can average 80+ and reach $400k he will have done his job for an upgrade.

 

[Duckworthy]

Emmett interests me. Surely a Monty to take Schultz role

Me too

 

[adammania9]

Personally I'm loving the "struggle" in the forward line this year. Some really interesting value picks going around that will reward or kill teams.

 

[Choppers]

Sounds like Sharp has the Wing almost locked up replacing Henry and with Aish on the other wing.
If Chappy can average 80+ and reach $400k he will have done his job for an upgrade.

Just read somewhere Aish expects to go to the back half, leaving Sharp O'Driscoll and Chappy fighting for the wing....I'll go see if I can find the article
edit.......found it

James Aish, however, has relocated from a wing to half-back after conversations about his role in the team at the end of last season.
"I feel like I can bring my strengths there, and it also allows 'Chappy' and 'Sharpy' and 'Driz' (O'Driscoll) and some of these younger guys to get a go on the wing and get their run, and hopefully it benefits the team."

Fyfe winds back the clock at Dockers match sim

Nat Fyfe dominated in the midfield during Fremantle's high intensity match simulation on Monday

www.afl.com.au

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Given all the best 18 rounds, are we more confident in locking in the best of the best premos rather than searching for value with the 2nd tier premiums who may make the jump? What im getting at is that quite a few rookies scores will drop off so if you structure your team well around the byes you can afford to have more rookies in your team (as other posters have mentioned previously, guns n rookies appears to have an advantage this season). In that case, it might be wise to spend up on the 'assured points' rather than going for the 'full 30 depth'. By all means, if a gun is likely underpriced you should still grab them but i think spending more on the bonafide guns and starting 1 more rookie or mid-priced player instead of a premium may be the way to go.

100% agree.

With more trades to make money with there is less need to go for speculative picks.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

King_Steele