Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[Sphynx]

Such clean hands and couldn't be more impressive in traffic. More than happy to have him on our list. We really cant go wrong with one of Smith, FOS, Smillie or Draper.

I dunno.

The only real comp I ever see for him is someone like Serong.

But my eye is lying there imo.

I also didn't rate Serong as highly in his top age year and he's made me eat that assessment. So just as likely to happen here with JS.

I have a bit of a phobia of these types of slight, 180cm, slightly middle pace, high accumulating, "contested" midfielders who specialize mostly in ground balls rather than pure contested posessions.

His best comparison in game style might actually be Nick Daicos, but he lacks Nicks pace, his gut running and his damage by foot.

It's also hard to identify in the data, as a bit of a black spot in modern footy data is a ground ball = CP. So high contested possession mids aren't really high contested possession mids in the true sense.

I don't mind comparing combo's of hard ball gets and CP % ratio's and ground balls to cut through it.

So then who is he? I decided to build his data model. High accumulation, high ground ball, high CP, high clearance, low hard ball get ratio midfielder.

When I try and align Jagga's underage data model to AFL players, these are probably the closest comps I have.



He's not Anderson, Merrett and Treloar. He doesn't have the same footspeed imo. He tests OK, I just don't think he has the game style of these 3. He's definitely not Daicos and Merrett in his ball use.

His ball use is comparable to Anderson and Treloar. Anderson is a completely different physical specimen.


So that leaves Brayshaw and Butters.

Butters has a physical edge for their body sizes in his game style I don't think Jagga has.

So it's probably Andrew Brayshaw that I've settled on.


Is a young Andrew Brayshaw a good fit for our midfield? I'd have thought not.

 

[R00StaR]

Only top player i dont like for our list from the top prospects is Jagga. Not damaging for him to be most efefctive he needs to okay a role that LDU and George do but they do it better.
Draper adds something abit different. Can be elusive and pacey on the outside. Tackles hard.
FOS i would want to see him go near his underage form befor using a pick 2 on him.
Smilie had huge upside and adds something that we dont have in our middle. Would want to see him develop contested marking. Otherwise he is my fav
Would a great finish to the season for Lalor also be a great addition

I was of that mindset, but im warming more and more towards Smith.

He's lightning fast in the first few steps which makes the oppo hesitant to apply too much forward pressure on him out of fear he'll go around them. His clean one grab takes are almost Sanders level, great disposal in that 30-40m range and a ball magnet.

I get what you mean though, he's more suited to being a pure mid fielder than many of the others which forces somebody else out for longer.

But damn that work rate and cleanliness is hard to go past.

 

[R00StaR]

I dunno.

The only real comp I ever see for him is someone like Serong.

But my eye is lying there imo.

I also didn't rate Serong as highly in his top age year and he's made me eat that assessment. So just as likely to happen here with JS.

I have a bit of a phobia of these types of slight, slightly middle pace, high accumulating, "contested" midfielders who specialize mostly in ground balls rather than pure contested posessions.

His best comparison in game style might actually be Nick Daicos, but he lacks Nicks pace, his gut running and his damage by foot.

It's also hard to identify in the data, as a bit of a black spot in modern footy data is a ground ball = CP. So high contested possession mids aren't really high contested possession mids in the true sense.

I don't mind comparing combo's of hard ball gets and CP % rations and ground balls to cut through it.

So then who is he? I decided to build his data model. High accumulation, high ground ball, high CP, high clearance, low hard ball get ratio midfielder.

When I try and align Jagga's underage data model to AFL players, these are probably the closest comps I have.

View attachment 2058465

He's not Anderson, Merrett and Treloar. He doesn't have the same footspeed imo. He tests OK, I just don't think he has the game style of these 3. He's definitely not Daicos and Merrett in his ball use.

His ball use is comparable to Anderson and Treloar.


So that leaves Brayshaw and Butters.

Butters has a physical edge for their body sizes I don't think Jagga has.

So it's probably Andrew Brayshaw that I've settled on.


Is a young Andrew Brayshaw a good fit for our midfield? I'd have thought not.

Very well done! Interesting because Zac Butters was what i was seeing.

And id agree we probably want a mid that can be a utility or/ or wing. But if Smith was deemed best available id be happy for him on our list. Imagine that in traffic work feeding out to LDU, Powell, Sheezel and McKercher. And we have the Warlord for pure contested in close stuff.

 

[chubbspeterson]

His kicking is A grade, both depth and weight of kick, makes him dangerous if used forward or back as well. Uses those long levers well with the dont argues.

He can certainly shank a few like Wardlaw though among the beauties he hits.

 

[chubbspeterson]

I dunno.

The only real comp I ever see for him is someone like Serong.

But my eye is lying there imo.

I also didn't rate Serong as highly in his top age year and he's made me eat that assessment. So just as likely to happen here with JS.

I have a bit of a phobia of these types of slight, 180cm, slightly middle pace, high accumulating, "contested" midfielders who specialize mostly in ground balls rather than pure contested posessions.

His best comparison in game style might actually be Nick Daicos, but he lacks Nicks pace, his gut running and his damage by foot.

It's also hard to identify in the data, as a bit of a black spot in modern footy data is a ground ball = CP. So high contested possession mids aren't really high contested possession mids in the true sense.

I don't mind comparing combo's of hard ball gets and CP % ratio's and ground balls to cut through it.

So then who is he? I decided to build his data model. High accumulation, high ground ball, high CP, high clearance, low hard ball get ratio midfielder.

When I try and align Jagga's underage data model to AFL players, these are probably the closest comps I have.

View attachment 2058465

He's not Anderson, Merrett and Treloar. He doesn't have the same footspeed imo. He tests OK, I just don't think he has the game style of these 3. He's definitely not Daicos and Merrett in his ball use.

His ball use is comparable to Anderson and Treloar. Anderson is a completely different physical specimen.


So that leaves Brayshaw and Butters.

Butters has a physical edge for their body sizes in his game style I don't think Jagga has.

So it's probably Andrew Brayshaw that I've settled on.


Is a young Andrew Brayshaw a good fit for our midfield? I'd have thought not.

I remember it being mentioned on either 360 or First Crack that Montagna had a bit of a hand in Freo taking Serong.
Turned out to be a pretty good scouting recommendation in hindsight.

 

[Harris 10]

Does Draper come from a good family and is he switched on or is he a knob like the other SA bloke we got?

 

[Souup]

So then who is he? I decided to build his data model. High accumulation, high ground ball, high CP, high clearance, low hard ball get ratio midfielder.

What I see when I watch him is a lot of Lachie Neale.

 

[LB2Snake]

What I see when I watch him is a lot of Lachie Neale.

You’d take that wouldn’t ya? I have a 180cm and below phobia, but Neale is an absolute special player.

 

[pupstar]

You’d take that wouldn’t ya? I have a 180cm and below phobia, but Neale is an absolute special player.

I take it you weren't a Boomer fan then

 

[justroyal]

I take it you weren't a Boomer fan then

I mean you can hardly blame him after Jy, Lazzaro, Will, Drury, Mahony, Fisher

 

[Sphynx]

What I see when I watch him is a lot of Lachie Neale.

He was just outside my stat model.

The hardball get nature of Neales CP ratio's removed him vs Jagga.

 

[LB2Snake]

I take it you weren't a Boomer fan then

Loved the Boom, of course, but he was a freak of nature.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I like the sound of Evan Bradley, could potentially still be on the board at our pick 40 or 58.

I don't watch it like you do, but I saw a couple of the SA games and Bradley was certainly lively.

Given we'll be taking River (I assume), whether we go with another small forward might depend on the call they make on RHJ

I think he’ll still be around in the 40’s and 50’s. He is still very raw, but the natural forward line craft and X-factor really stands out to me!

I like all of these guys, one of them at pick 58 would be a nice get but knowing us we probably won't use it.
Oliver Warburton could be another who looks good. Which one of the half back/wings has the quickest speed?

I’d say Ough has the highest top speed but he takes a bit to get going, kind of like Goater. Grego and Retcshko both have a bit of toe in their first 5-10m. I’ll be very curious to see how they test at the combine to see if it aligns with my eye test!

Warburton is a beauty, really like his competitiveness and intensity, prefer him as a midfielder at AFL level but he is probably a little one paced to be on our radar and is probably a bit too similar to someone like Powell.

 

[JGreezy]

I feel like, as much as this board dismisses Smillie, that we are a real chance to take him. I could see him starting at half back next year and being a better fit next to Fisher than McKercher is, at 194cm.

And in 3-4 years he'll be a pretty versatile chess piece to move around the board. Especially if we want to rotate 7-8 mids like Sydney.

 

[chubbspeterson]

I feel like, as much as this board dismisses Smillie, that we are a real chance to take him. I could see him starting at half back next year and being a better fit next to Fisher than McKercher is, at 194cm.

And in 3-4 years he'll be a pretty versatile chess piece to move around the board. Especially if we want to rotate 7-8 mids like Sydney.

I think you may be right. The fit of Smillie with Prestia/Taranto/Hopper or Ginbey/Reid is a little clunky but if they rate him the best talent they'll make it work. Fit wise they probably need a bit more of a Draper, Langford or FOS.
At the end of the day I think you'd be pretty happy with any of FOS/Smith/Draper/Smillie/Lalor/Langford/Trainor.

 

[Ura]

I feel like, as much as this board dismisses Smillie, that we are a real chance to take him. I could see him starting at half back next year and being a better fit next to Fisher than McKercher is, at 194cm.

And in 3-4 years he'll be a pretty versatile chess piece to move around the board. Especially if we want to rotate 7-8 mids like Sydney.

I see Smilie as a great fit.. I think versatility is going to be very important going forward. I could see Duurs (forward mid), Sheez, Kerch and Smilie swapping across lines in games.

That being said with a good trade back we could turn pick 2 into a Berry and 1 of Armstrong, Lalor, Travaligia, Reid really take a pick. For what its worth i stick with Smilie.

 

[The Talent Scout]

I'm seriously thinking about something that I don't think Will, Brady and Alastair will do this year and I've been against it for the last five years as well as this year, though I was open to the Harley situation, but not for all our draft picks.
I've been adamant that we trade in a future 2nd rounder and not touch our first {mainly because of Archie Ludowyke} who I rate but with Harry and Kayle this year its made me think about the future drafts of 2025 and 2026, before "Tassie" enter and clean up the talent pool.

I think I need to explain as there are sometimes people out there that say NO, not our first rounder, WHAT IF we get injuries or don't improve and finish in the bottom 3 again. So what? We miss out on another midfielder or a very good key forward, I think we are now at the stage to do this, like I'm 99% sure, with every day passing its going to get to that hundred mark, I can feel it! While some people will still be against it, that's fine we all have our own thoughts, but think about this before you dismiss it completely.


(1) We trade not our future second rounder in but our first and get maximum value by getting two first round picks this year and the perfect team to do this is Gold Coast because of the picks they have though I'm pretty sure they are not interested in draft picks, they want established talent.

(2) If and its a big if, this were to happen and just say we got picks 8 and 9 or where ever they finish, in the draft we get the best talent at our first pick {pick 2 or 3} say we have picks 8/9/ a late twentyish pick and a late fortyish pick. We can possibly get at 8/9 our gun key forward in Harry Armstrong and one of either Taj Hotton, Joe Berry or Murphy Reid as our gun small forward, our late twentyish pick can be anyone but say we opt to go for one of the key defenders or some more run out of defence like Lindsay {I think he might be gone at this stage} or even Oliver, finish our draft off by taking River at our fortyish pick, of course we could rookie him.

(3) Out of our final draft we get, a gun mid, possibly the most exciting key forward seen for some time, one of the three I mentioned so whoever we pick quite possibly the best small forward in the draft and then a good key defender or running half back plus River, OUR LIST WOULD BE SO SET AND IF YOU HAVE SEEN US NEARLY BEATING Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda, Carlton and early in the season Fremantle you then add this talent, what do you think we are going to do to the opposition with this mob its actually borderline insane , we wont lack anything, we don't need anyone else and we don't have to worry about the draft because we got our talent and we can concentrate on developing them and watching them go about their style of play that is going to make us feared for the next ten years!

(4) When 2025 rolls along we have got a full year into our kids so we are ahead instead of starting of scratch for talent and needs, of course we will still need to take our three selections but we can work our way round that, but I must point out that in order for this to happen we have to at least get two top picks in the top 10 or 12 and have a team to trade with that has those picks, will two years of future picks come in this year? Looking ahead and the way we are playing I believe in being positive, sometimes there are times when you can wait for things to happen or you make things happen, we are getting very very close to that time if we are not already there.

 

[chubbspeterson]

I'm seriously thinking about something that I don't think Will, Brady and Alastair will do this year and I've been against it for the last five years as well as this year, though I was open to the Harley situation, but not for all our draft picks.
I've been adamant that we trade in a future 2nd rounder and not touch our first {mainly because of Archie Ludowyke} who I rate but with Harry and Kayle this year its made me think about the future drafts of 2025 and 2026, before "Tassie" enter and clean up the talent pool.

I think I need to explain as there are sometimes people out there that say NO, not our first rounder, WHAT IF we get injuries or don't improve and finish in the bottom 3 again. So what? We miss out on another midfielder or a very good key forward, I think we are now at the stage to do this, like I'm 99% sure, with every day passing its going to get to that hundred mark, I can feel it! While some people will still be against it, that's fine we all have our own thoughts, but think about this before you dismiss it completely.


(1) We trade not our future second rounder in but our first and get maximum value by getting two first round picks this year and the perfect team to do this is Gold Coast because of the picks they have though I'm pretty sure they are not interested in draft picks, they want established talent.

(2) If and its a big if, this were to happen and just say we got picks 8 and 9 or where ever they finish, in the draft we get the best talent at our first pick {pick 2 or 3} say we have picks 8/9/ a late twentyish pick and a late fortyish pick. We can possibly get at 8/9 our gun key forward in Harry Armstrong and one of either Taj Hotton, Joe Berry or Murphy Reid as our gun small forward, our late twentyish pick can be anyone but say we opt to go for one of the key defenders or some more run out of defence like Lindsay {I think he might be gone at this stage} or even Oliver, finish our draft off by taking River at our fortyish pick, of course we could rookie him.

(3) Out of our final draft we get, a gun mid, possibly the most exciting key forward seen for some time, one of the three I mentioned so whoever we pick quite possibly the best small forward in the draft and then a good key defender or running half back plus River, OUR LIST WOULD BE SO SET AND IF YOU HAVE SEEN US NEARLY BEATING Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda, Carlton and early in the season Fremantle you then add this talent, what do you think we are going to do to the opposition with this mob its actually borderline insane , we wont lack anything, we don't need anyone else and we don't have to worry about the draft because we got our talent and we can concentrate on developing them and watching them go about their style of play that is going to make us feared for the next ten years!

(4) When 2025 rolls along we have got a full year into our kids so we are ahead instead of starting of scratch for talent and needs, of course we will still need to take our three selections but we can work our way round that, but I must point out that in order for this to happen we have to at least get two top picks in the top 10 or 12 and have a team to trade with that has those picks, will two years of future picks come in this year? Looking ahead and the way we are playing I believe in being positive, sometimes there are times when you can wait for things to happen or you make things happen, we are getting very very close to that time if we are not already there.

I'm coming around to it a little more if it gets us two kids we want 12 months earlier, so long as the picks we get are something pretty close to the value of our likely pick next year. Ideally you get two picks in top 15 this year from GC or Freo. However, another option might be getting a top 10 and F1 off one team and then trying to on-trade that F1 to Freo or a team with an NGA bid wanting to trade out of the 1st round.

From the sounds of it there will be some teams hunting draft picks (Port?) or ready made talent to stay contending like the Demons (Houston), Crows (Lukosius?) and Hawks/Cats (Bailey Smith).
If Tim English chooses WCE deal over Dogs that could shake things up considerably. The Eagles might split 1/2/3 or trade futures to bring in English and/or Liam Baker. It could get real interesting that's for sure.

 

[R00StaR]

I'm seriously thinking about something that I don't think Will, Brady and Alastair will do this year and I've been against it for the last five years as well as this year, though I was open to the Harley situation, but not for all our draft picks.
I've been adamant that we trade in a future 2nd rounder and not touch our first {mainly because of Archie Ludowyke} who I rate but with Harry and Kayle this year its made me think about the future drafts of 2025 and 2026, before "Tassie" enter and clean up the talent pool.

I think I need to explain as there are sometimes people out there that say NO, not our first rounder, WHAT IF we get injuries or don't improve and finish in the bottom 3 again. So what? We miss out on another midfielder or a very good key forward, I think we are now at the stage to do this, like I'm 99% sure, with every day passing its going to get to that hundred mark, I can feel it! While some people will still be against it, that's fine we all have our own thoughts, but think about this before you dismiss it completely.


(1) We trade not our future second rounder in but our first and get maximum value by getting two first round picks this year and the perfect team to do this is Gold Coast because of the picks they have though I'm pretty sure they are not interested in draft picks, they want established talent.

(2) If and its a big if, this were to happen and just say we got picks 8 and 9 or where ever they finish, in the draft we get the best talent at our first pick {pick 2 or 3} say we have picks 8/9/ a late twentyish pick and a late fortyish pick. We can possibly get at 8/9 our gun key forward in Harry Armstrong and one of either Taj Hotton, Joe Berry or Murphy Reid as our gun small forward, our late twentyish pick can be anyone but say we opt to go for one of the key defenders or some more run out of defence like Lindsay {I think he might be gone at this stage} or even Oliver, finish our draft off by taking River at our fortyish pick, of course we could rookie him.

(3) Out of our final draft we get, a gun mid, possibly the most exciting key forward seen for some time, one of the three I mentioned so whoever we pick quite possibly the best small forward in the draft and then a good key defender or running half back plus River, OUR LIST WOULD BE SO SET AND IF YOU HAVE SEEN US NEARLY BEATING Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda, Carlton and early in the season Fremantle you then add this talent, what do you think we are going to do to the opposition with this mob its actually borderline insane , we wont lack anything, we don't need anyone else and we don't have to worry about the draft because we got our talent and we can concentrate on developing them and watching them go about their style of play that is going to make us feared for the next ten years!

(4) When 2025 rolls along we have got a full year into our kids so we are ahead instead of starting of scratch for talent and needs, of course we will still need to take our three selections but we can work our way round that, but I must point out that in order for this to happen we have to at least get two top picks in the top 10 or 12 and have a team to trade with that has those picks, will two years of future picks come in this year? Looking ahead and the way we are playing I believe in being positive, sometimes there are times when you can wait for things to happen or you make things happen, we are getting very very close to that time if we are not already there.

Wait are you saying we get picks 8 and 9 for our future first?

You'd jump all over that, but i dont see it happening.

 

[Passmore]

The annual "let's trade our future 1st".....

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I feel like, as much as this board dismisses Smillie, that we are a real chance to take him. I could see him starting at half back next year and being a better fit next to Fisher than McKercher is, at 194cm.

And in 3-4 years he'll be a pretty versatile chess piece to move around the board. Especially if we want to rotate 7-8 mids like Sydney.

I've been as critical as anyone of Smillie, but I'd be happy to see him on our list. The highlights package noob put up shows there is so much untapped potential there with his frame and size still relatively under developed. In 2-3 years he is going to be be a specimen that you can play anywhere on the ground. I really just wish he had a little bit more intensity around the contest.

 

[giantroo]

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Interesting so he has the following players outside his top 40:

Kayle Gerreyn
Tyler Welsh
Lachie Jacques
Archer Day-Wicks

 

[The Talent Scout]

The annual "let's trade our future 1st".....

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

Considering I've been against it for awhile I don't think it should be "annual", though having seen many posts over the last few years I get it and even more so when it was not the time to do so, BUT, if you always limit yourself to the same opinion and never entertain the "flexibility" factor then change will never happen, sometimes change in thinking is not only good but if thought out, it can have massive rewards in the long run.

I 100% think we are/should trade a future first/second in this years draft considering who's available, how deep it is and factoring in 2025 and 2026, lots of things come into play with this thinking and thought as well, with me it is never a lets do this or that, one must think things through to a point, where to do it, makes perfect sense, the only reason you wouldn't do it this year is if we have our eyes on someone next year but from what I've seen this year, it negates not doing it!

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

Interesting so he has the following players outside his top 40:

Kayle Gerreyn
Tyler Welsh
Lachie Jacques
Archer Day-Wicks

If Jaques or Gerryn are there in the third round for us, you run the pick up and laugh all the way home.