Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[roos_fanatic08]

He has Derek Kickett written all over him!!!

He has a ridiculous amount of upside though, uberly talented, bloody skilful and can literally kick goals from anywhere. Such a natural small forward.

However, his body composition has hardly improved at all despite being in elite pathways. If he wants an AFL career the off field stuff really needs to improve.

 

[noobermensch]

A solid performance from Gross who put in his typical industrious shift, throwing his body in at stoppage and work hard around the ground to create an option for his teammates and apply pressure on the opposition. He played quite a bit in the forward line, and shows real promise there as a disciplined pressure forward and opportunistic goal scorer in the Ben Keays

2

Ben Keays

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.9

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

13.7

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.7

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

mold.

 

[ferball]

You talking about AI being able to pass a Turing test? Where by a computer can trick a person into thinking it's output is that of a Human?

Happens all the time in real life to real people you only need to look as far as AI generated news articles.

Yeah but is that cos most people wouldn't pass one (or any other ****en test...)?

in fact, I'd wager that if people in this thread had not declared some of their posts as being from AI and rather just things they wrote about potential draftees, there would have been next to no questions about the posts being generated by AI.

That 70 year old test is probably a low bar to get over with Today's technology. In all honesty a better question about it would likely be can an AI trick another AI into thinking its output is that of a Human.

I've yet to see an AI produce text that makes me think it has any personality or if its evaluating something, any skin in that game - ie it can summarise information but doesn't seem to be able to make decisions about how to act with that information.

Certain things like riffing on an idea, puns and taking the piss don't seem to be things AI text generators can do very well.

 

[ferball]

Does it work the other way? Would the Donald, for example, pass a Turing test? Or sent back for further diagnostics?

Exactly...

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Does it work the other way? Would the Donald, for example, pass a Turing test? Or sent back for further diagnostics?

Trump wouldn't pass an AI test. Well, the A maybe, but definitely not the I.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

A solid performance from Gross who put in his typical industrious shift, throwing his body in at stoppage and work hard around the ground to create an option for his teammates and apply pressure on the opposition. He played quite a bit in the forward line, and shows real promise there as a disciplined pressure forward and opportunistic goal scorer in the Ben Keays

2

Ben Keays

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.9

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

13.7

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.7

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

mold.

Reminds me of Tom Atkins from the Cats.

 

[noobermensch]

A less prolific game statistically from Matt Whitlock but he was just as impressive as his brother Jack in this game. Strong overhead and able to find space on the lead, he was also able to show his proficiency below the knees on several occasions with clean gathers and poise to find the right option.

 

[chubbspeterson]

I'm not just talking about current needs. You don't draft talls expecting them to make much difference for a couple of years. We know roughly what our list will like in two years, the core players are already signed. This core is missing quality talls and small forwards. They aren't coming to us via free agency or trade, we need to draft them.

What you are advocating is what we have been doing. It is a death cycle. We have been taking talls with late picks. We have lots of these: Sellers, Biggie, Pink, Maley, Teakle, K Dawson. I suggest that all bar one will be gone by the end of next year. They were all short term solutions or long shots. Are we really going to fill six list spots with project and state league talls in the hope one becomes the next Nick Larkey? Such players take a long time to develop and have a low chance of success.

Also, do small forwards become available in trade week? I can't recall us ever taking one this way. They are an increasingly important and valued part of the game, and have been for ten years. We haven't taken a small forward in the National Draft since Corey Wagner in 2015.

If we plan on taking a key forward then we should 100% slide to pick 4-6 if possible and pick up another asset.
If Tigers end up with GC pick 5 (Rioli overpay) and Freo 9/10 (Bolton). 5 and 10 is a pick 25 points gain to us.
Take Armstrong with 5, one of Lalor, Berry, Hotton, Lindsey, M Whitlock etc.

If we stay and pick a mid at 2, take a contested marking kpf at 22 (Shanahan, Gerreyn or Sims), small forward or key back at pick 40 or 58. Next years draft we could take more the lead up type key forward like Archie Ludowyke
Also, Willem Duursma another option. My point is we could stagger key forwards across two drafts so they develop on different timelines so they don't peak at the same time and we're forced to trade them because they aren't playing.

 

[perplexed]

If we plan on taking a key forward then we should 100% slide to pick 4-6 if possible and pick up another asset.
If Tigers end up with GC pick 5 (Rioli overpay) and Freo 9/10 (Bolton). 5 and 10 is a pick 25 points gain to us.
Take Armstrong with 5, one of Lalor, Berry, Hotton, Lindsey, M Whitlock etc.

If we stay and pick a mid at 2, take a contested marking kpf at 22 (Shanahan, Gerreyn or Sims), small forward or key back at pick 40 or 58. Next years draft we could take more the lead up type key forward like Archie Ludowyke
Also, Willem Duursma another option. My point is we could stagger key forwards across two drafts so they develop on different timelines so they don't peak at the same time and we're forced to trade them because they aren't playing.

Turning pick 2 into Armstrong and Berry would be a huge win.

 

[shinboner magic]

With the talk of small forwards I thought I thought I'd do a bit traits summary on all the available small forwards. I'm excluding Isaac Kako and Malakai Champion because they will end up at Essendon & WC due to the change in academy rules which is a real shame because they'd be perfect for us.

Joe Berry
Speed
Defensive Pressure
Goal Sense
Accumulation
Ground Ball Skill
Leading Skill
Fitness
Footy IQ


Jesse Dattoli
Speed
Defensive Pressure
Goal Sense
Accumulation
Ground Ball Skill
Leading Skill
Fitness
Footy IQ

Evan Bradley
Speed
Defensive Pressure
Goal Sense
Accumulation
Ground Ball Skill
Leading Skill
Fitness
Footy IQ

Benny Barrett
Speed
Defensive Pressure
Goal Sense
Accumulation
Ground Ball Skill
Leading Skill
Fitness
Footy IQ

Jasper Alger
Speed
Defensive Pressure
Goal Sense
Accumulation
Ground Ball Skill
Leading Skill
Fitness
Footy IQ

Waylon Davey-Motlop
Speed
Defensive Pressure
Goal Sense
Accumulation
Ground Ball Skill
Leading Skill
Fitness
Footy IQ

Josh Dolan
Speed
Defensive Pressure
Goal Sense
Accumulation
Ground Ball Skill
Leading Skill
Fitness
Footy IQ

Sphynx reckon you could provide pre-season testing numbers for the vic boys mentioned below? Sometimes the eye test for me doesn't necessarily match up with the way they test.

Benny Barrett or Waylon will be the ones we take

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Benny Barrett or Waylon will be the ones we take

I won't be disappointed if we get Barrett his pace and defensive intensity is pretty electric.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Wasn't the Barrett kid tied to Port's NGA?

 

[shinboner magic]

I won't be disappointed if we get Barrett his pace and defensive intensity is pretty electric.

Benny I didn’t know your game - impressive

 

[JGreezy]

I'm not just talking about current needs. You don't draft talls expecting them to make much difference for a couple of years. We know roughly what our list will like in two years, the core players are already signed. This core is missing quality talls and small forwards. They aren't coming to us via free agency or trade, we need to draft them.

What you are advocating is what we have been doing. It is a death cycle. We have been taking talls with late picks. We have lots of these: Sellers, Biggie, Pink, Maley, Teakle, K Dawson. I suggest that all bar one will be gone by the end of next year. They were all short term solutions or long shots. Are we really going to fill six list spots with project and state league talls in the hope one becomes the next Nick Larkey? Such players take a long time to develop and have a low chance of success.

Also, do small forwards become available in trade week? I can't recall us ever taking one this way. They are an increasingly important and valued part of the game, and have been for ten years. We haven't taken a small forward in the National Draft since Corey Wagner in 2015.

We didn't draft Sellers, Biggie, Pink. We drafted Teakle and Dawson with MSD picks and they've been solid returns. Maley was a rookie draft pick and looks promising.

You're ignoring our other KPPs - AA Larkey (pick 72), soon-to-be AA Xerri (pick 73), gun KPP Comben (pick 31). Then Wil Dawson (pick 22).

I'm not talking about the "death cycle". I'm talking about drafting more KPPs than we are, but just not burning top picks on "need".

We don't know what needs will be in 2+ years.

For example, it seems that people want to draft a KPF with our first pick. We currently have Larkey and Comben. We have Duursma who is 190cm and only 18. He could end up a 3rd forward. Maley could develop and has looked great, considering his lack of experience.

And what if we land a trade or free agent target in the next 2 years? We could have 5 good options before this draft pick is ready

Would you be happy in 2 years if we used a top 2 pick on a KPP player who can't get a game, while Draper is the next midfield star for another team?

In comparison, we could draft Draper, then draft a KPF with our 2nd rounder and another with a later pick. That way, we're not risking as much on the uncertainty of future need and we're probably similarly as likely to draft a good player.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

We didn't draft Sellers, Biggie, Pink. We drafted Teakle and Dawson with MSD picks and they've been solid returns. Maley was a rookie draft pick and looks promising.

You're ignoring our other KPPs - AA Larkey (pick 72), soon-to-be AA Xerri (pick 73), gun KPP Comben (pick 31). Then Wil Dawson (pick 22).

I'm not talking about the "death cycle". I'm talking about drafting more KPPs than we are, but just not burning top picks on "need".

We don't know what needs will be in 2+ years.

For example, it seems that people want to draft a KPF with our first pick. We currently have Larkey and Comben. We have Duursma who is 190cm and only 18. He could end up a 3rd forward. Maley could develop and has looked great, considering his lack of experience.

And what if we land a trade or free agent target in the next 2 years? We could have 5 good options before this draft pick is ready

Would you be happy in 2 years if we used a top 2 pick on a KPP player who can't get a game, while Draper is the next midfield star for another team?

In comparison, we could draft Draper, then draft a KPF with our 2nd rounder and another with a later pick. That way, we're not risking as much on the uncertainty of future need and we're probably similarly as likely to draft a good player.

We definitely need more top shelf mids. Ignore anyone who says otherwise. So far we have LDU, Wardlaw, Sheezel, McKercher and maybe Powell. Not enough! We probably need 2 more who can also play another position for rotation purposes. Lalor, Draper, FOS, Langford for example.

 

[shinboner magic]

downgrade pick 2 then get Armstrong / berry combo then let’s see if we need more mids

 

[Shermanator]

I won't be disappointed if we get Barrett his pace and defensive intensity is pretty electric.

Damien's brother?..

 

[Shermanator]

downgrade pick 2 then get Armstrong / berry combo then let’s see if we need more mids

If we went down that path, I would even go Armstrong, Berry and another KPP with 40 then River with pick 100 or Rookie.

Use F2nd for Jack Macrae this year and we can pick up another good mid through FA or pick 4-8 in 2025 ND.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Shanahan is the key forward we should be targeting

 

[archereleven]

Using a high draft pick on current needs, over talent, is really bad list management. It's short-sightedness.

It's true that we need KPFs right now but we're not drafting this player for right now. We don't know what list needs will be in 3+ years.

I had this same discussion on here 2 years ago when people said that we don't need a mid because we had JHF, TT and LDU. Two are now gone and third still hasn't signed (though he is likely to stay).

We need developing KPFs but you can get them with later picks. We need small forwards but they become available in trade week.

Just draft the best player.

The facts of the matter are that there is always 10x the mids in a draft compared to talls.

It was ******ed to build from the midfield out in 2019 and it is ******ed now. No team will ever do it again imo.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[shinboner magic]

I don’t want to get to excited over an u18 player playing vfl after Lmac fiasco

 

[chubbspeterson]

I won't be disappointed if we get Barrett his pace and defensive intensity is pretty electric.

Port will match you'd think.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Shanahan is the key forward we should be targeting

Why would you have Shanahan as the one out of interest? Athleticism? His recent VFL form?
I'm not sure he's as good a contested mark as some others but he's definitely got presence.

 

[Makeshift Park]

downgrade pick 2 then get Armstrong / berry combo then let’s see if we need more mids

Yup.

Except in the unlikely scenario we can get someone like Houston with the second pick

 

[The Nostradamus]

Why would you have Shanahan as the one out of interest? Athleticism? Contested marking not as good though.

Yeah footy iq, size and athleticism. Good skills and kick for goal

Impressed me every time I’ve watched him and has carried strong form into the vfl