Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Bletch]

ESPN's rankings: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ace-heats-sid-draper-josh-smillie-jagga-smith

 

[bradfisher14]

As much as the top end of this draft isn't stunning, I really think it's a solid draft with lots of different types of players available. I think we could strive for another Cowan-type selection by trading a future pick into the mid-second round to grab a slider. If we could get two players ahead of a bid on Ben Campo that would be a great result.

Normally I would be in favour of this strategy. But this year I don't think it would be wise for us to do that. I would take one player in addition to the Campos for the reasons below (apologies in advance for the essay).

1. We're in the midst of a list spot crunch so another draftee would make that even worse. We already have Duffy plus Campos as guaranteed incomings and probably need to upgrade Boyd to the senior list, so drafting more players on top of that could force us to trade/delist a player we would otherwise like to keep.
2. IMO we need senior players to help our list more than a draftee - either a small forward or key def. This is where I would potentially use a future pick.
3. We also need to keep in mind the need to match a massive amount of points for a Cody Walker bid in the near future. I think trading out current picks for futures could be a smart move to start accumulating points so that we're not in a weak position down the track in negotiations.

 

[Coona Blues]

This is an interesting one because absolutely you can find them there but that doesn’t make it easy. Since the start of our rebuild we have had probably 7-8 attempts at it and failed.

Is it that many? (Wouldn’t be having this conversation if Oscar McDonald had a sound body) Macreadie was a bust, Luke Parks undersized ( we could do worse than re rookie now he is mature, but would be depth still). Young remains a frustration, has the tools, but not the mentality.

With the mooted rookie list changes, extending to five years, we may just bank on Sam Durdin for a bit longer yet as depth and delay drafting a kid or trading a ready made when we have the collateral.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

My current top 20 is way off what many others seem to have at the moment but figured I'd chuck it out there anyway. Gerreyn is my smokey for the draft. Reckon he could end up a Noah Balta

21

Noah Balta

Age

24

Ht

194cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

3.1

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.9

4star

MG

236.3

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.3

1star

MG

233.0

4star

D

7.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

217.4

4star

type swingman. Athleticism off the charts and pretty skillful for a big man, just makes some dumb decisions (seemingly when he's taking the piss because he know's he's bigger and stronger than most). Think he could be a real get for a team with a good development program.

1- Leo Lombard
2- Sid Draper
3- Levi Ashcroft
4- Luke Trainor
5- Josh Smillie
6- Tobie Travaglia
7- Xavier Lindsay
8- Taj Hotton
9- Harry Armstrong
10- Jagga Smith
11- Harvey Langford
12- Jack Whitlock
13- Joe Berry
14- Sam Lalor
15- Bo Allan
16- Finn O'Sullivan
17- Kayle Gerreyn
18- Isaac Kako
19- Thomas Sims
20- Harry O'Farrell

This would cause some serious meltdowns on the draft board as theres a few fanatics re certain players but it's all personal opinion at the end of the day. Lalor and FOS the clear watches given the injury interruptions they've had, I see the potential in Lalor, he's big, explosive and can do some very exciting things... I am yet to be convinced on FOS being a top 10 talent in the draft though

 

[Coona Blues]

My current top 20 is way off what many others seem to have at the moment but figured I'd chuck it out there anyway. Gerreyn is my smokey for the draft. Reckon he could end up a Noah Balta type swingman. Athleticism off the charts and pretty skillful for a big man, just makes some dumb decisions (seemingly when he's taking the piss because he know's he's bigger and stronger than most). Think he could be a real get for a team with a good development program.

1- Leo Lombard
2- Sid Draper
3- Levi Ashcroft
4- Luke Trainor
5- Josh Smillie
6- Tobie Travaglia
7- Xavier Lindsay
8- Taj Hotton
9- Harry Armstrong
10- Jagga Smith
11- Harvey Langford
12- Jack Whitlock
13- Joe Berry
14- Sam Lalor
15- Bo Allan
16- Finn O'Sullivan
17- Kayle Gerreyn
18- Isaac Kako
19- Thomas Sims
20- Harry O'Farrell

This would cause some serious meltdowns on the draft board as theres a few fanatics re certain players but it's all personal opinion at the end of the day. Lalor and FOS the clear watches given the injury interruptions they've had, I see the potential in Lalor, he's big, explosive and can do some very exciting things... I am yet to be convinced on FOS being a top 10 talent in the draft though

Good on you for putting it up. Not going to criticise as this draft is crazy subjective.

Gerreyn is going to be an interesting watch, so much potential. What is a club going to do, forward or ruck? His development is going to be key. Recruiters are going to earn their money. Wouldn’t have him that high, but don’t suggest it is wrong by any stretch.

FOS does look ridiculously low, but so was Moir on recent output and yet to realise his earlier potential.

 

[Juice030103]

I just don’t get the Sid Draper hype at all. I get he has great traits and that’s what you look for but I wasn’t impressed in the champs by him to be honest


I’m sure I’m wrong about this but I don’t see him being that Rozee type people have compared him to

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Dodson can't be far off....will need time but you reckon he makes it as an AFL player

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I just don’t get the Sid Draper hype at all. I get he has great traits and that’s what you look for but I wasn’t impressed in the champs by him to be honest


I’m sure I’m wrong about this but I don’t see him being that Rozee type people have compared him to

He wasn't at his best for most of the champs. Coming off a stress fracture in his shin he didn't seem to have the zip in his legs which we saw a bit more towards the end. Went back to the SANFL more recently and seems to have finally got his explosive power back that had him highly rated coming into the year.



I just think a midfield of Walsh, Cerra, Walker, BCampo and Draper has everything you could ask for going forward for the next decade. Speed, ball use, toughness, defensive pressure.

We are almost 0 chance of getting him but I think he'd be a great piece for many midfields in the AFL atm.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Normally I would be in favour of this strategy. But this year I don't think it would be wise for us to do that. I would take one player in addition to the Campos for the reasons below (apologies in advance for the essay).

1. We're in the midst of a list spot crunch so another draftee would make that even worse. We already have Duffy plus Campos as guaranteed incomings and probably need to upgrade Boyd to the senior list, so drafting more players on top of that could force us to trade/delist a player we would otherwise like to keep.
2. IMO we need senior players to help our list more than a draftee - either a small forward or key def. This is where I would potentially use a future pick.
3. We also need to keep in mind the need to match a massive amount of points for a Cody Walker bid in the near future. I think trading out current picks for futures could be a smart move to start accumulating points so that we're not in a weak position down the track in negotiations.

That's fair. List positions are super tight at the moment. If someone requests a trade for more opportunity or we have a surprise delisting because we're confident we can get someone better in the draft this could be an option to pursue because I think there are a number of good kids available.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Is it that many? (Wouldn’t be having this conversation if Oscar McDonald had a sound body) Macreadie was a bust, Luke Parks undersized ( we could do worse than re rookie now he is mature, but would be depth still). Young remains a frustration, has the tools, but not the mentality.

With the mooted rookie list changes, extending to five years, we may just bank on Sam Durdin for a bit longer yet as depth and delay drafting a kid or trading a ready made when we have the collateral.

BSOS, Goddard, O’Shea, Glass-McCasker, Marchbank plus as you said McDonald, Parks, Macreadie, Durdin and Young. Ignoring Plowman because I think he was always a medium defender.
The only decent tall defenders we have found have been expensive so finding one cheap absolutely does happen but you can burn through a lot of late picks looking for them.

 

[manintheknow]

My current top 20 is way off what many others seem to have at the moment but figured I'd chuck it out there anyway. Gerreyn is my smokey for the draft. Reckon he could end up a Noah Balta type swingman. Athleticism off the charts and pretty skillful for a big man, just makes some dumb decisions (seemingly when he's taking the piss because he know's he's bigger and stronger than most). Think he could be a real get for a team with a good development program.

1- Leo Lombard
2- Sid Draper
3- Levi Ashcroft
4- Luke Trainor
5- Josh Smillie
6- Tobie Travaglia
7- Xavier Lindsay
8- Taj Hotton
9- Harry Armstrong
10- Jagga Smith
11- Harvey Langford
12- Jack Whitlock
13- Joe Berry
14- Sam Lalor
15- Bo Allan
16- Finn O'Sullivan
17- Kayle Gerreyn
18- Isaac Kako
19- Thomas Sims
20- Harry O'Farrell

This would cause some serious meltdowns on the draft board as theres a few fanatics re certain players but it's all personal opinion at the end of the day. Lalor and FOS the clear watches given the injury interruptions they've had, I see the potential in Lalor, he's big, explosive and can do some very exciting things... I am yet to be convinced on FOS being a top 10 talent in the draft though

Lombard is a terrible kick and decision maker for a number 1

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Lombard is a terrible kick and decision maker for a number 1

Makes up for it with incredible power and speed. Everyone in this draft has their issues, there's no Reid or Mckercher types this year. I'm happy with Lombard at 1.

 

[Pinnell]

My current top 20 is way off what many others seem to have at the moment but figured I'd chuck it out there anyway. Gerreyn is my smokey for the draft. Reckon he could end up a Noah Balta type swingman. Athleticism off the charts and pretty skillful for a big man, just makes some dumb decisions (seemingly when he's taking the piss because he know's he's bigger and stronger than most). Think he could be a real get for a team with a good development program.

1- Leo Lombard
2- Sid Draper
3- Levi Ashcroft
4- Luke Trainor
5- Josh Smillie
6- Tobie Travaglia
7- Xavier Lindsay
8- Taj Hotton
9- Harry Armstrong
10- Jagga Smith
11- Harvey Langford
12- Jack Whitlock
13- Joe Berry
14- Sam Lalor
15- Bo Allan
16- Finn O'Sullivan
17- Kayle Gerreyn
18- Isaac Kako
19- Thomas Sims
20- Harry O'Farrell

This would cause some serious meltdowns on the draft board as theres a few fanatics re certain players but it's all personal opinion at the end of the day. Lalor and FOS the clear watches given the injury interruptions they've had, I see the potential in Lalor, he's big, explosive and can do some very exciting things... I am yet to be convinced on FOS being a top 10 talent in the draft though

You think Jagga Smith will fall that far? Whats your knock Walshisthegoat?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You think Jagga Smith will fall that far? Whats your knock Walshisthegoat?

No these are just my rankings, Jagga will probably be in the top 5 come draft night. For me his kicking is extremely inconsistent and lacks penetration beyond about 40m. Can look like a great kick at times, other times he's lucky to hit a target by foot. Question marks over whether he'll be able to bulk up enough to have the strength to play midfield at AFL level. Think he'll be extremely suspect to opposition attention during games at the next level.

 

[DangerousD]

With the mooted rookie list changes, extending to five years, we may just bank on Sam Durdin for a bit longer yet as depth and delay drafting a kid or trading a ready made when we have the collateral.

Im not sure why we would persist with a player that’s managed 1 game in three seasons, despite long injuries to our other key defenders.

Durdin was taken from the SANFL as mature back up, surely in all the lower leagues there’s a mature defender who’s body could stand up better.

 

[BlueJet]

Im not sure why we would persist with a player that’s managed 1 game in three seasons, despite long injuries to our other key defenders.

Durdin was taken from the SANFL as mature back up, surely in all the lower leagues there’s a mature defender who’s body could stand up better.

Yep.
Plays a position of need, isn't likely to improve at this stage of his development and doesn't get a look in when others are injured or out of form..
If we house someone in the 2s, we'd be better off looking at someone to develop longer term.
The idea that keeping Durdin (and Young) around, somehow protects us doesn't make a whole heap of sense.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

My current top 20 is way off what many others seem to have at the moment but figured I'd chuck it out there anyway. Gerreyn is my smokey for the draft. Reckon he could end up a Noah Balta type swingman. Athleticism off the charts and pretty skillful for a big man, just makes some dumb decisions (seemingly when he's taking the piss because he know's he's bigger and stronger than most). Think he could be a real get for a team with a good development program.

1- Leo Lombard
2- Sid Draper
3- Levi Ashcroft
4- Luke Trainor
5- Josh Smillie
6- Tobie Travaglia
7- Xavier Lindsay
8- Taj Hotton
9- Harry Armstrong
10- Jagga Smith
11- Harvey Langford
12- Jack Whitlock
13- Joe Berry
14- Sam Lalor
15- Bo Allan
16- Finn O'Sullivan
17- Kayle Gerreyn
18- Isaac Kako
19- Thomas Sims
20- Harry O'Farrell

This would cause some serious meltdowns on the draft board as theres a few fanatics re certain players but it's all personal opinion at the end of the day. Lalor and FOS the clear watches given the injury interruptions they've had, I see the potential in Lalor, he's big, explosive and can do some very exciting things... I am yet to be convinced on FOS being a top 10 talent in the draft though

Wow. Twomey had Lombard at 11 and Draper at 9. He did mention that this is a ridiculously even draft though.

Seems like there is some quality there but just not the Walsh / Reid level stand-out.

Either way perfect scenario for Carlton if Ben falls just outside our first pick and Lucas quite late. We get 3 quality players but can also choose for need with that first pick (quality key defender most likely).

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Wow. Twomey had Lombard at 11 and Draper at 9. He did mention that this is a ridiculously even draft though.

Seems like there is some quality there but just not the Walsh / Reid level stand-out.

Either way perfect scenario for Carlton if Ben falls just outside our first pick and Lucas quite late. We get 3 quality players but can also choose for need with that first pick (quality key defender most likely).

I don't see us going after a KPD with our first. We're in the window and a KPD will take multiple years of bulking up and development before being ready for AFL footy.

I also can't see either Campo boys being first round picks. Ben will be around 25-30 imo and Lucas could be anywhere from 35-rookie draft.

Think we'll go after a flanker type

 

[teddy-hopkins]

If Ben was pick 31 that is 606 points and Lucas might cost another 100.

We can cover that with the later picks we already have: 37, 64, 66 and 72 (almost 700 draft points).

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I don't see us going after a KPD with our first. We're in the window and a KPD will take multiple years of bulking up and development before being ready for AFL footy.

I also can't see either Campo boys being first round picks. Ben will be around 25-30 imo and Lucas could be anywhere from 35-rookie draft.

Think we'll go after a flanker type

I agree that will be a factor but I'd be in favour of keeping one eye on the future even though we're in the window. Key defenders is a glaring hole in the list.

Would be highly unlikely that we pull a Jack Darling type (KPP who plays from year 1) but you never know.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I agree that will be a factor but I'd be in favour of keeping one eye on the future even though we're in the window. Key defenders is a glaring hole in the list.

Would be highly unlikely that we pull a Jack Darling type (KPP who plays from year 1) but you never know.

I think we'll go down the path of trying to transform a late pick into a quality KPD or address it via trade. Just think we need the top end picks we'll have access to for kids who can come in and impact rather quickly.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I think we'll go down the path of trying to transform a late pick into a quality KPD or address it via trade. Just think we need the top end picks we'll have access to for kids who can come in and impact rather quickly.

I think we should do both.

The next Sam Taylor / SDK will come from the draft. Gun KPD are very hard to trade for but gettable with a pick in our range of the draft.

And also go for a failed forward from another club. McCartin, Liam Jones, Sicily, Howe type.

I don't expect Marchy or Durdin to be on the list next year.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I think we'll go down the path of trying to transform a late pick into a quality KPD or address it via trade. Just think we need the top end picks we'll have access to for kids who can come in and impact rather quickly.

Just as a hypothetical, should we look at potentially trading out our 1st round pick to ensure that we don't burn it on Ben if he gets bid on before our 1st rounder. You can bet your arse that Dodoro or ol' mate SOS will place a bid on him ahead of our 1st if it benefits them.

Off the top of my head, trading in someone like a Conor Stone or a Jacob Konstanty for pick 17, with a 2nd rounder coming back our way. Possible shuffling of later picks, but that'd be the guts of it.

Gives us additional points to cover the Campo bids as well as ensuring a quality player to address our needs without compromising our future draft picks. Take another pick late in the draft.

Happy to get shot down in flames for this ridiculous suggestion though

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Just as a hypothetical, should we look at potentially trading out our 1st round pick to ensure that we don't burn it on Ben if he gets bid on before our 1st rounder. You can bet your arse that Dodoro or ol' mate SOS will place a bid on him ahead of our 1st if it benefits them.

Off the top of my head, trading in someone like a Conor Stone or a Jacob Konstanty for pick 17, with a 2nd rounder coming back our way. Possible shuffling of later picks, but that'd be the guts of it.

Gives us additional points to cover the Campo bids as well as ensuring a quality player to address our needs without compromising our future draft picks. Take another pick late in the draft.

Happy to get shot down in flames for this ridiculous suggestion though

If Dodo or Sos are dumb enough to bid on either Campo with a first rounder I say u just let them have them. Realistically Ben and Lucas aren't 'list needs' for us... They're just bonuses in that we're getting 2 hard working kids we're familiar with for a discount. Only reason Sos or Dodo would bid on either is purely to be flogs, neither are a list need at all for either club.

If it were Cody Walker level talent or a genuine game changer then yes maybe I'd look at some shenanigans to avoid paying overs somehow but neither Ben or Lucas are in that bracket imo.

For me we should try and get a pick as close to 10 as possible and go from there. One of Berry, Travaglia, Draper, Armstrong or Hotton will most likely make it down that far imo. Scoop up whichever of them are left.

Draper>Travaglia>Berry>Hotton>Armstrong would be the order I'd take them in with Gresham now being available to us next year as a small forward NGA.