Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Arr0w]

Generally, its much easier to identify non bust players, but recruiters get enamoured with picking kids with massive xfactor/upside

 

[djfly]

To put some perspective in how excited we get with high draft picks....I remember being so excited about this guy, who I thought was going to be a superstar.........

Tomorrow's Heroes: Paddy Dow

It's not hard to see why the rugged playmaker is a likely top-three pick

www.afl.com.au

 

[bradfisher14]

Didn’t have the dog?
Bloke is hard, numerous times he got smashed and kept going.
How many other players would have put in as much continued effort absolutely killing it in the 2s over a big stretch for no reward. That in itself shows the character of the bloke.

He worked his ass off & ultimately never had the chance with a fit Cripps, Walsh, Cerra to prove he had stepped up.

Using him as comparison with Draper is unsophisticated & a poor argument.
The players all have their own journeys & much more goes into what makes/happens with their career.

Lazy argument to drag Dow into the conversation, yes it’s pick 3 again & we want a player of greater impact than he gave us - but that’s it, there’s no further relationship than just the number of the pick.

Is this melt directed at me personally or just the general discussion around Draper/Dow?

 

[bmaurizio]

Dow, SPS, Cuningham., Fisher, O'Brien, Philps, Menzel - do you really really need me to go on?

Strong determined character , natural ability and physical durability , are the rare natural gifts which very few youngsters possess.

 

[Pablito]

Jagga..

 

[marcmurphy3]

Generally, its much easier to identify non bust players, but recruiters get enamoured with picking kids with massive xfactor/upside

100%. If you look at the top 20-30 AFL players, particularly mids, most of them are just really good footballers who do lots really well and are tough, professional, competitors. They don't necessarily have a whole lot of x-factor.

The comps megastars (top 1-3) usually have those traits plus x-factor which is obviously what clubs are hoping for but can come unstuck in doing so.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Appologise to Coona Blues for using his posts. But FlowersByIrene Why did you not ask back when this was first raised?

I've raised it everytime someone used this baseless assertion.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Chad Warner had what effect in the GF exactly? Yep Treloar is a genuine gun. Coner Rozee - hmmm looks good in teh open when someone has handed him the ball with space to move in is all I've got say...

however - getting the ball is the start of everything and none of those blokes are A graders when it comes to that.

I see no one has bothered to have a go at answering my questions about all the kids on the list already "who arent being given opportunity by the close minded Voss" blah blah blah. - instead this focus on a pick 4 to fix all of Carltons midfield problems - sorry not a buyer of that 'logic'.

As for Cripps - imagine a Carlton midfield with him gone or missing - with Walsh and Cerra expected to get the job done. Not a buyer of that theory either after watching both plod around or not even be able to get on the park- all year. This expectation that Cripps will be Cripps for as long as it takes for others to play catch up or be developed is a tad too 'hopeful' in my book.

oh and btw - I am not advocating for choosing any player who isnt a good footballer - and cant run both ways, why do people always try and push an argument into extremes?

Anyway my care factor for draftees is the same as always was and always will be - it is a lottery.

This is a pretty flimsy argument. The point is, and has always been, that while your big inside mids win big accolades, because they are very impactful and very consistent, you can't have a midfield of only big inside mids if you want to win games of football and not just win accolades.

Our midfield leans very heavily towards inside midfielders, with Cripps being the best of them and also Hewett and even young players like Lord. Not to mention we're also drafting a big inside midfielder in this draft already in the form of Ben Camporeale. Cerra and Walsh who are inside-outside hybrids will become more inside as their careers progress as they get slower in their old age.

If we want to win football games and not brownlow's we need to bring in more explosive, fast paced midfields that compliment our existing inside strength.

It's a pretty simple concept.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

We've been strongly linked to FOS, Draper, Langford and Smith just in recent days.

Is this just journos throwing darts, or is the club actually smart enough to engage in a little misdirection?

I think it is a pretty clear consensus top tier

 

[FlowersByIrene]

An article on sen where Hotton says he would love the blues to take him.

Maybe in two years Hotto.

 

[GoBlues!]

Please explain why we would select a player who has a chronic back ailment even before they have joined us?

He may have all the qualities of the other draftees but they do not have a chronic back issue before starting their career.
Everyone has hopped off Hotten because of his ACL, a back issue such as Draper has is much worse and will be degenerative over time.

BluStreak have you got any details on the type of back issue Draper actually has/had?

 

[Coops93]

Teams win or lose games and fans focus on A player. No doubt he has seriosu speed-

i'd have Cripps/Daicos/Neil/Bont/Petracca/LDU/Butters/Dangerfield/McCluggage way ahead of him - and thayt is off the top of my head ...

he is back in the pack with some other rising stars- because he is NOT a BALL GETTER

I mean that's fine, but it's not really the point of your post. You brought up the Grand Final and focussed on his output, I just replied and said the whole team was rubbish, not just him, so singling him out was a misrepresentation of his actual ability to stand up in big moments, which he's excellent at.

V Geelong 2 yrs ago in the Granny he had 29 touches and 2 goals which was one of the highest rated games ever recorded in a Grand final. Similarly in the Prelim v Port he had 21 and 2 big goals late. V Geelong he also had 18 contested possessions as well as 10 clearances, seems like a ball getter to me.

He's stood up in big moments and kicked clutch late 4th qtr goals several times now, including some in finals and a Grand Final, so calling out his impact in big games/moments is just wide of the mark. He's proven several times that he is a big game & moment player.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Dow, SPS, Cuningham., Fisher, O'Brien, Philps, Menzel - do you really really need me to go on?

There's a pretty common theme amongst those players, outside of Philp and Cuningham who were cruelled by injury and that's mental issues - it's either footy IQ being low (Dow, Fisher, Menzel) or lack of confidence (SPS), the other outlier is O'Brien who was just physically poor. I'd argue those things should have been ascertainable at draft time. Fisher and Philp I feel can be excused because they were later picks anyway, but Dow, SPS, Menzel were mistakes.

It's one of the reasons people are big on Draper and Jagga Smith, because they show professionalism, IQ and hard work.

 

[Bic]

Draper for me thanks, we need a game changer

FOS is a game changer too.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Teams win or lose games and fans focus on A player. No doubt he has seriosu speed-

i'd have Cripps/Daicos/Neil/Bont/Petracca/LDU/Butters/Dangerfield/McCluggage way ahead of him - and thayt is off the top of my head ...

he is back in the pack with some other rising stars- because he is NOT a BALL GETTER

What are you even talking about right now, this all started with criticism of Draper because we allegedly don't need speed, and just need big inside midfielders, and now you're talking about Chad Warner not winning enough ball. Which is a weird criticism in the context of a discussion on Draper's suitability given he is one of the more prolific midfielders in the draft - averaging far more disposals than Lalor, Sullivan or Smillie (your big inside midfield types) and only surpassed on ball winning ability by Langford and Smith?

 

[juzza316]

There's a pretty common theme amongst those players, outside of Philp and Cuningham who were cruelled by injury and it's either footy IQ being low (Dow, Fisher, Menzel) lack of confidence (SPS) or physically poor (O'Brien). I'd argue those things should have been ascertainable at draft time. Fisher and Philp I feel can be excused because they were later picks anyway, but Dow, SPS, Menzel were mistakes.

It's one of the reasons people are big on Draper and Jagga Smith, because they show professionalism, IQ and hard work.

I'd say the fact you listed four different reasons for seven players indicates there isn't a very common theme.

 

[DirtyLeeds]

For some strange reason I was more confident when we had the two higher picks, number '3' really makes me nervous, even in this so called super draft......

 

[Bic]

Finn O'sullivan played a reserves games for the Tigers. Had 13 touches but 6 of those were score involvements including 2 goals of his own.

Therein lies the conundrum for me. He doesn't get it a huge amount but his touches seem to turn into gold.

Whoever drafts FOS will witness him win games off his own boot.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'd say the fact you listed four different reasons for seven players indicates there isn't a very common theme.

Sorry I went back and clarified that I was lumping those 'mental' weaknesses into one thing. I also didn't come up with the list, so I was just responding to what was given. The point is, a large portion of them were mentally weak.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Interesting the age have updated their mock draft. Supposedly spoken to 13 recruiters. They've got Jagga at 3 now, and said the majority of recruiters they spoke to now believe we will take him, with Adelaide to pounce at 4 if we don't.

They've actually got FOS falling to the Saints (though have admitted theirs a good chance he goes before then) and funnily enough have asked the question "does he have the same drive as others?" Must have got that from somewhere.

1. Lalor (other option FOS or Jagga)
2. Tauru (other option FOS or Draper)
3. Smith (other options Langford, Draper, FOS)
4. Draper (other options Jagga or Langford)
5. Langford (other options FOS, Smith, Tauru)
6. Smillie (or FOS)
7. FOS

 

[JuddgementDay]

I wonder how much these recent draftee interviews impact our order? I doubt we had many chats throughout the year, so our initial thoughts were probably influenced more by on field performance and athleticism

Watching Jagga and Draper talk (Jagga impresses me marginally more) they just seem like ultra professionals, deep thinkers, future captains. Several players have said that Jagga is the hardest trainer they have ever seen. Drapers' manager said he is the most professional player at his age he's ever seen. Whatever happens they will 100% get the best out of themselves.

FOS seems like a great kid. Not saying he is unprofessional but just doesn't come across anywhere near as impressive. That's not a reason not to pick him. Plenty of the AFL's best aren't Sam Walsh, Trent Cotchin types. It's often good to have a few more laid-back types around the club.

But I'm just curious, how much impact this might have in getting Jagga or Draper over the line, particularly if it's tight? I find it hard to imagine Voss walking out of a meeting with those 3 and being more impressed with FOS then Jagga or Draper.

"Jagga is the hardest trainer they have ever seen" - that's a bit unfair, as he didn't have school this year - so he has more time than his peer to train

 

[HarryFlashman]

Is this melt directed at me personally or just the general discussion around Draper/Dow?

Dow - you, i disagree with your assertion
Draper - in general

 

[Trigger13]

For those interested in Sid’s injury, he had what is called a ‘pars defect’ or spondylolysis; a stress fracture of the bones of the lower spine. These fractures typically occur due to overuse. They can be on one or both sides of the vertebrae. It is a common cause of low back pain in children and adolescents. The most common cause of low back pain is muscular, secondary to overuse or deconditioning.

He likely to outgrow the injury and will be no issue going forward.

 

[Stamos]

Interesting the age have updated their mock draft. Supposedly spoken to 13 recruiters. They've got Jagga at 3 now, and said the majority of recruiters they spoke to now believe we will take him, with Adelaide to pounce at 4 if we don't.

They've actually got FOS falling to the Saints (though have admitted theirs a good chance he goes before then) and funnily enough have asked the question "does he have the same drive as others?" Must have got that from somewhere.

1. Lalor (other option FOS or Jagga)
2. Tauru (other option FOS or Draper)
3. Smith (other options Langford, Draper, FOS)
4. Draper (other options Jagga or Langford)
5. Langford (other options FOS, Smith, Tauru)
6. Smillie (or FOS)
7. FOS

One sleep to go: The latest mail on who your club will pick in this year’s AFL draft

The best and brightest prospects in the land will learn their fate on Wednesday and Thursday in the AFL draft. We’ve studied the form and the needs of the clubs to devise our final phantom draft for the first round.

www.theage.com.au

https://archive.md/Alu6A

 

[reubsblues]

Fos is still my first choice then Smith and Langford before Draper