Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who do you want at our first pick?

  • Bo Allan

    Votes: 2 1.5%
  • Joe Berry

    Votes: 53 40.5%
  • Tobie Travaglia

    Votes: 23 17.6%
  • Harry Armstrong

    Votes: 6 4.6%
  • Jobe Shanahan

    Votes: 1 0.8%
  • Xavier Lindsay

    Votes: 10 7.6%
  • Taj Hotton

    Votes: 26 19.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 10 7.6%

  • Total voters
    131

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Whoever we draft I want them to be extremely good at their primary position. I don’t want a Kemp/Curtin type where you don’t know their best position and spend years trying to work that out.

Flexibility is good and all but we need to be clear with what we want and go after it. No more hybrid types.

Our list is at the point where we have been aggressive with trades and got a talented team. We need to address the gaps but don’t need to go chasing guns. We need certainty around positions.

*KPD. Not another third tall. But still athletic.
*Pacy, high footy IQ crumbing small.
*Damaging half back flank.
*Dangerous half forward type.
 
Interesting to note how much lower Murphy Reid is rated in this list vs Cal Twomey's lists when one assumes they are speaking to the same people.
If Reid drifts that low, I would love to have him at Carlton. A goal kicking midfielder with some of the best foot and hand skills in the draft.
 

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Interesting to note how much lower Murphy Reid is rated in this list vs Cal Twomey's lists when one assumes they are speaking to the same people.

There is a fair bit more variance in the ranking lists this year in the top 15 or so. Very even. Eventual order will come down to individual club preferences.
 
Mildly concerning re the up in the air stuff. Sounds like we haven't committed to them just yet, likely due to our list squeeze.
I'm not bothered by it one bit tbh. They're saying it's up in the air for one of two reasons: (1) they've been told not to reveal Carlton's commitment to the media so the club can make the announcement or (2) it genuinely is up in the air because the club don't think they're good enough. Either way I'm fine with. I think scenario 1 is the most likely. But if scenario 2 is what's happening I think it's fair on face value. Neither Ben nor Lucas have shown enough to say that they are guaranteed to be a gun player at AFL level. We don't have the list spots to accomodate sentimental selections as much as we all love the romance of it.
 
Mildly concerning re the up in the air stuff. Sounds like we haven't committed to them just yet, likely due to our list squeeze.

We don't have to take them even if we nom them so I think it's just a matter of time.

Neither played the back half of the year at all (except for lucas 1 final). Suggests to me we may have committed and told them to shut up shop but don't want it to be obvious.
 
The age have a new top 20 draft order in today's paper based on discussions with 12 of the 18 recruiters or list bosses. They have noted that as a result there have been some massive changes from previous spots where rankings were just based on one person's ratings.

The new list;

1) Sam Lalor
2) Levi Ashcroft
3) Alix Tauru
4) Jagga Smith
5) Harvey Langford
6) Isaac Kako
7) Finn O'Sullivan
8) Josh Smillie
9) Leo Lombard
10) Sid Draper
11) Harry Armstrong
12) Tobie Travaglia
13) Xavier Lindsay
14) Luke Trainor
15) Joe Berry
16) Taj Hotton
17) Jobe Shanahan
18) Murphy Reid
19) Bo Allan
20) Ollie Hannaford
 
The age have a new top 20 draft order in today's paper based on discussions with 12 of the 18 recruiters or list bosses. They have noted that as a result there have been some massive changes from previous spots where rankings were just based on one person's ratings.

The new list;

1) Sam Lalor
2) Levi Ashcroft
3) Alix Tauru
4) Jagga Smith
5) Harvey Langford
6) Isaac Kako
7) Finn O'Sullivan
8) Josh Smillie
9) Leo Lombard
10) Sid Draper
11) Harry Armstrong
12) Tobie Travaglia
13) Xavier Lindsay
14) Luke Trainor
15) Joe Berry
16) Taj Hotton
17) Jobe Shanahan
18) Murphy Reid
19) Bo Allan
20) Ollie Hannaford
Kako at 6! * would be spewing. Makes their pick 9 gettable.

Also means our first would be 15 - Berry.
 
The age have a new top 20 draft order in today's paper based on discussions with 12 of the 18 recruiters or list bosses. They have noted that as a result there have been some massive changes from previous spots where rankings were just based on one person's ratings.

The new list;

1) Sam Lalor
2) Levi Ashcroft
3) Alix Tauru
4) Jagga Smith
5) Harvey Langford
6) Isaac Kako
7) Finn O'Sullivan
8) Josh Smillie
9) Leo Lombard
10) Sid Draper
11) Harry Armstrong
12) Tobie Travaglia
13) Xavier Lindsay
14) Luke Trainor
15) Joe Berry
16) Taj Hotton
17) Jobe Shanahan
18) Murphy Reid
19) Bo Allan
20) Ollie Hannaford
Would love someone to bid on Kako ahead of Essendon's first pick
 
My observations:

Murphy Reid is someone you couldn’t pass up if he was there. He has generational class. Lachie Neale hands. Is a goal scorer as well. Only query is speed/power at the highest level.

Travaglia. Tenacious competitor with exemplary endurance and ball reading. Concerns around his height (187cm) and his kicking. Does he solve our second key defender problem? Probably not. Might be worth it regardless.

Berry is someone I’ve been bearish on but I’ve revisited some games and I admit he has several attributes that we could use. Very clever running patterns and makes good decisions often. Has some Luke Breust about him. Query is him drifting out of games at times. Worthy of a top 12 selection? Hmmm.

Xavier Lindsay is popular on here but it’s a huge no from me. If you watch enough of his matches, his ball use is bordering on poor. Yes, he looks slick with the left foot and every so often hits a great pass but he butchers the ball way too much for mine. No discernible game breaking qualities about him. Blues don’t need him.

Trainor tempts me with his outstanding intercept marking and elite skills by foot. Extremely talented player and a healthy dose of confidence. Is he the second key defender we need? He’s 195 so maybe. I’d say after the saints receiving pick 8 for battle that he will be off the table anyway. He feels safer than Travaglia for mine.

Hotton I haven’t watched enough footage of, however he possesses much of what we need at the blues. Not sure he is worth the risk given our injury plague.

Hannaford. What a finish to the season. He possesses strength and power that we need. Also hits the score board. He’s a less skilful Murphy Reid with more power. Might cost less and be more what we need. Reminds me of someone Geelong would pick up for peanuts and turn into a superstar.

My order of preference:

Murphy Reid
Luke Trainor
Ollie Hannaford
Joe Berry
Tobie Travaglia


Xavier Lindsay
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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