Analysis 2024 National Draft

[The Return of the Paf]

So are you trusting port Adelaide not to bid on a local S.A all australian kid at a pick 36 as a minimum. That pretty much means that pick 38 gets wiped out. The gain to us is that we get to pick higher meaning that only one of Lalor, FOS. Jagga and Draper are gone as opposed to 2.

We pretty much have to trade out pick 38 one way or another, having already banked the late picks that we need for any bids, rather than risk losing it for nothing. Moving up a spot might be worth more to us than a future 3rd that we would otherwise be looking at.

What's that even mean in a practical sense? Each pick after any bid is points to be used up and when does the discount come into play? I highly doubt we traded specifically for pick 3 from WC because pick 3 is so much better than pick 4, and pick 2 so much better than 3 in turn.

Any positional advantage in a draft is worthwhile but with that in mind I'd rather look to a slider or better than average project player being available with a later pick.

 

[GoBlues!]

Lalor then Smith then Draper for mine.

1 of them will be there at 3 so I'm happy.

FOS isn't even at 4 for me. I'd take at least Tauru, Berry and Travaglia over him.

Any thoughts on Langford Mal - can play mid/forward and can hit forward targets with a terrific left peg - eg. that mark to Lalor!

 

[Malifice]

What were SPS' point of difference? He was slow physically and skill wise.

Dows was supposedly explosion but it wasn't anything special at AFL level. His first 5m were good but his top speed was average at best. Not sure he ever actually improved our run despite that being his strength on paper.

Dow had (and has) that initial burst out of the stoppage. It's still his strength.

He otherwise gets lost a lot, and his second efforts aren't consistent. His footy IQ isn't great which (along with his still smaller frame) is why his possession count is low.

It's why I'm wary of blokes like FOS. Low possession count and gets caught HTB a fair bit (despite being a very evasive player, fast and with a good initial burst of speed). He lacks game awareness, and his second efforts are not great. While everyone wants to point at injuries (they were finger injuries mainly) I put it down to a low footy IQ.

Compare him to Smith, who has an elite footy IQ. His second efforts are next level, and he's always involved in the play. It's why he racks them up.

While FOS is a different player to Dow, I see them as having the same issues at the next level. He might make it (I dont want to sit here having pot shots at the kid) and make me look like a goose in a few years' time, but it's just too much of a risk for us to take (having traded this year and next years 1sts for him).

If he doesnt come on, it'll be two whole drafts in a row where we've blown 1st rounders (after blowing 3 of them in a row on SPS, Stocker and Dow in the middle of our rebuild).

Lalor, Smith and Draper OTOH will absolutely make it at the next level, and (unlike FOS, who best case scenario if he does make it, will take time) all three of them could easily play from R1 next year, and make us a better side immediately.

 

[TerryWallet]

Hun Draft Guide

https://archive.md/fmYIQ

Thanks for regularly providing the archive links Stamos. Appreciated at this time of year.

 

[BigFrizz36]

What's that even mean in a practical sense? Each pick after any bid is points to be used up and when does the discount come into play? I highly doubt we traded specifically for pick 3 from WC because pick 3 is so much better than pick 4, and pick 2 so much better than 3 in turn.

Any positional advantage in a draft is worthwhile but with that in mind I'd rather look to a slider or better than average project player being available with a later pick.

If Ben is selected at the draft before pick 38 and we still hold it then the required amount of points to match the bid is taken from our next available pick (pick 38 if we still hold it) less the 20% discount given.

So for example if The Power bid on Ben with pick 36 we would need to use 502 points less the 20% discount to match. Our pick 38 is worth 465 points which means that our pick 38 becomes about pick 67. Even worse because we have already stockpiled late picks to cover the bid, but we have to use our next available.

As others have said we can trade our pick on the night (for a future pick) if a bid were to come were but unless there are players on the board that clubs are desperate for then we will struggle to get a lot back because clubs know that we have to get rid of the pick. Clearly picks and points will change on the night with academy, father dons etc.

It depends on how we rate the top four. If we rate them all similarly then you wouldn't bother but if we thought that Lalor and Smith were head and shoulders above the rest (for example) you would at least ask the question.

 

[GoBlues!]

Lalor, Smith and Draper OTOH will absolutely make it at the next level, and (unlike FOS, who best case scenario if he does make it, will take time) all three of them could easily play from R1 next year, and make us a better side immediately.

Agree with FOS reservations.

If its a quality midfielder we're after I would have Smith, Draper and Langford ahead of Lalor.

 

[charred_fate]

I reckon Langford could possibly be sitting above Draper in our list of preference now. Red flags on disposal and decision-making are a concern for our team, which does not feature much of either.

Speed has a part to play, but breaking lines can be done with a combination of run and strength and also creativity/decision-making (eg, Bont). I don’t think speed should be disproportionately weighted just because we are a bit slow across the board. Don’t want Matt Kennedy slow, but Langford doesn’t labour like MK and there’s every chance he could follow Crippa’s lead and bring explosiveness into his game (which is more valuable than outright speed imo).

Ok speed, but with strong disposal, body, decision-making, marking and scoreboard impact is more valuable than outright speed with questionable decision-making and disposal.

If Draper’s disposal/decision-making issues are being overstated, then no doubt he’s still firmly on the radar.

There’s a lot to like in Langford’s game.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Caution: longish read ahead…

I’ve spent my day watching videos of all the top 4 players (thanks flu) through the “footy stuff” YouTube channel and have some thoughts:

Draper:

Have him by far the 4th best option of these. Doesn’t fix our problems.

Strengths:
Competitor: has a crack and keeps buttering up when the ball is in his vicinity.

Clearance work: stays on the move and has a knack for getting to the right spot.

Speed: is able to burst away from traffic and get into space

Weaknesses:
Decision making: so often he gets out into miles of space, and keeps running until he is forced to pop a loopy handball over the top of an opponent.

Kicking: while neat over 20m, his kicking on the run/under pressure is far weaker than any of the others. Often kicks high 30m aimless bombs, and doesn’t have much of an opposite foot. It’s a real issue

Smith:

Seems bust proof but also isn’t a game breaker. I have him 3rd but I can see the appeal.

Strengths:
Accumulation: knows where the ball is going to go and keeps popping up in good spots.

Clever: uses his agility to create space to handball to players in better positions.

Consistent: a lot of his games are very similar. You put his magnet on the board and can be assured of the job he’ll be able to do.

Weaknesses:
Size: won’t stay this small forever but he’s wire thin and not much of a physical threat.

Penetration: he’s a tidy kick. But he tends to kick loopy balls and would struggle to kick far past 40m.

Hurt factor: he’s very involved, but compared to the others his possessions can be less impactful

FOS:

More of a mixed bag than smith but has moments of real quality and afl level traits. Starts round 1 next year as a will hayward with the potential to turn into Heeney

Strengths:
Marking: super athletic and has a great set of hands. Also helps him stay involved defensively as he can spoil and intercept t a higher level.

Kick penetration: can kick a set shot from 50m without much issue and when he blazes away it at least clears a significant distance.

Creativity: can also be his downfall at times but he goes for things that if successful are high impact, doesn’t get the ball like the others but most of his possessions are memorable

Weaknesses:

Accumulation: not as worried about this as some on here but he doesn’t get as much footy as the other 3.

Awareness: probably not the best word for it but he gets caught more often than you’d want. It’s one thing to take it on but you can’t always be superman.

Lalor:

Can see why he’s rumoured to go 1 to the Tigers, oozes afl quality, plays a lot like DeGoey from what I saw.

Strengths:

Kicking: can kick a big ball and pierced it low and hard through the middle with regularity

Size: he’s a big lad and against guys his age he’s way too tough to handle

Confidence: Carries himself like a star. Backs himself to win contests and does.

Weaknesses:

Injuries: high grade hammy this year is a little alarming

Position: is he a full time mid at afl level or is he a half forward who has bursts inside?

This exercise reinforced my high opinions of Lalor and FOS, solidified Smith as a solid 3rd option, and cooled me significantly on Draper.

Still think there’s next to no chance we get a bad player at 3, but Draper throws up red flags that clubs always say they can fix, but never do

Great summary

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Caution: longish read ahead…

I’ve spent my day watching videos of all the top 4 players (thanks flu) through the “footy stuff” YouTube channel and have some thoughts:

Draper:

Have him by far the 4th best option of these. Doesn’t fix our problems.

Strengths:
Competitor: has a crack and keeps buttering up when the ball is in his vicinity.

Clearance work: stays on the move and has a knack for getting to the right spot.

Speed: is able to burst away from traffic and get into space

Weaknesses:
Decision making: so often he gets out into miles of space, and keeps running until he is forced to pop a loopy handball over the top of an opponent.

Kicking: while neat over 20m, his kicking on the run/under pressure is far weaker than any of the others. Often kicks high 30m aimless bombs, and doesn’t have much of an opposite foot. It’s a real issue

Smith:

Seems bust proof but also isn’t a game breaker. I have him 3rd but I can see the appeal.

Strengths:
Accumulation: knows where the ball is going to go and keeps popping up in good spots.

Clever: uses his agility to create space to handball to players in better positions.

Consistent: a lot of his games are very similar. You put his magnet on the board and can be assured of the job he’ll be able to do.

Weaknesses:
Size: won’t stay this small forever but he’s wire thin and not much of a physical threat.

Penetration: he’s a tidy kick. But he tends to kick loopy balls and would struggle to kick far past 40m.

Hurt factor: he’s very involved, but compared to the others his possessions can be less impactful

FOS:

More of a mixed bag than smith but has moments of real quality and afl level traits. Starts round 1 next year as a will hayward with the potential to turn into Heeney

Strengths:
Marking: super athletic and has a great set of hands. Also helps him stay involved defensively as he can spoil and intercept t a higher level.

Kick penetration: can kick a set shot from 50m without much issue and when he blazes away it at least clears a significant distance.

Creativity: can also be his downfall at times but he goes for things that if successful are high impact, doesn’t get the ball like the others but most of his possessions are memorable

Weaknesses:

Accumulation: not as worried about this as some on here but he doesn’t get as much footy as the other 3.

Awareness: probably not the best word for it but he gets caught more often than you’d want. It’s one thing to take it on but you can’t always be superman.

Lalor:

Can see why he’s rumoured to go 1 to the Tigers, oozes afl quality, plays a lot like DeGoey from what I saw.

Strengths:

Kicking: can kick a big ball and pierced it low and hard through the middle with regularity

Size: he’s a big lad and against guys his age he’s way too tough to handle

Confidence: Carries himself like a star. Backs himself to win contests and does.

Weaknesses:

Injuries: high grade hammy this year is a little alarming

Position: is he a full time mid at afl level or is he a half forward who has bursts inside?

This exercise reinforced my high opinions of Lalor and FOS, solidified Smith as a solid 3rd option, and cooled me significantly on Draper.

Still think there’s next to no chance we get a bad player at 3, but Draper throws up red flags that clubs always say they can fix, but never do

Really surprising how people can see completely different things in players to others and everyone has difference of opinion on what can and can't be worked on in an AFL environment. Makes it so hard to put yourselves in a recruiters shoes.

 

[Red_man2008]

I don’t know what to think about the 5 options at pick 3. Everyone seems to value them very differently. Some have Lalor with issues, some Draper and a lot more comparing FOS to a potential Dow bust with his IQ. Others think FOS is the best of the lot. Putting this all together we could be in for a great few years or another few shit ones while we wait for Walker.

 

[Triniboy]

I reckon Langford could possibly be sitting above Draper in our list of preference now. Red flags on disposal and decision-making are a concern for our team, which does not feature much of either.

Speed has a part to play, but breaking lines can be done with a combination of run and strength and also creativity/decision-making (eg, Bont). I don’t think speed should be disproportionately weighted just because we are a bit slow across the board. Don’t want Matt Kennedy slow, but Langford doesn’t labour like MK and there’s every chance he could follow Crippa’s lead and bring explosiveness into his game (which is more valuable than outright speed imo).

Ok speed, but with strong disposal, body, decision-making, marking and scoreboard impact is more valuable than outright speed with questionable decision-making and disposal.

If Draper’s disposal/decision-making issues are being overstated, then no doubt he’s still firmly on the radar.

There’s a lot to like in Langford’s game.

going by the draft tag “midfielder”….your description looks like Smillie

 

[bigblueboy]

Caution: longish read ahead…

I’ve spent my day watching videos of all the top 4 players (thanks flu) through the “footy stuff” YouTube channel and have some thoughts:

Draper:

Have him by far the 4th best option of these. Doesn’t fix our problems.

Strengths:
Competitor: has a crack and keeps buttering up when the ball is in his vicinity.

Clearance work: stays on the move and has a knack for getting to the right spot.

Speed: is able to burst away from traffic and get into space

Weaknesses:
Decision making: so often he gets out into miles of space, and keeps running until he is forced to pop a loopy handball over the top of an opponent.

Kicking: while neat over 20m, his kicking on the run/under pressure is far weaker than any of the others. Often kicks high 30m aimless bombs, and doesn’t have much of an opposite foot. It’s a real issue

Smith:

Seems bust proof but also isn’t a game breaker. I have him 3rd but I can see the appeal.

Strengths:
Accumulation: knows where the ball is going to go and keeps popping up in good spots.

Clever: uses his agility to create space to handball to players in better positions.

Consistent: a lot of his games are very similar. You put his magnet on the board and can be assured of the job he’ll be able to do.

Weaknesses:
Size: won’t stay this small forever but he’s wire thin and not much of a physical threat.

Penetration: he’s a tidy kick. But he tends to kick loopy balls and would struggle to kick far past 40m.

Hurt factor: he’s very involved, but compared to the others his possessions can be less impactful

FOS:

More of a mixed bag than smith but has moments of real quality and afl level traits. Starts round 1 next year as a will hayward with the potential to turn into Heeney

Strengths:
Marking: super athletic and has a great set of hands. Also helps him stay involved defensively as he can spoil and intercept t a higher level.

Kick penetration: can kick a set shot from 50m without much issue and when he blazes away it at least clears a significant distance.

Creativity: can also be his downfall at times but he goes for things that if successful are high impact, doesn’t get the ball like the others but most of his possessions are memorable

Weaknesses:

Accumulation: not as worried about this as some on here but he doesn’t get as much footy as the other 3.

Awareness: probably not the best word for it but he gets caught more often than you’d want. It’s one thing to take it on but you can’t always be superman.

Lalor:

Can see why he’s rumoured to go 1 to the Tigers, oozes afl quality, plays a lot like DeGoey from what I saw.

Strengths:

Kicking: can kick a big ball and pierced it low and hard through the middle with regularity

Size: he’s a big lad and against guys his age he’s way too tough to handle

Confidence: Carries himself like a star. Backs himself to win contests and does.

Weaknesses:

Injuries: high grade hammy this year is a little alarming

Position: is he a full time mid at afl level or is he a half forward who has bursts inside?

This exercise reinforced my high opinions of Lalor and FOS, solidified Smith as a solid 3rd option, and cooled me significantly on Draper.

Still think there’s next to no chance we get a bad player at 3, but Draper throws up red flags that clubs always say they can fix, but never do

Good post. Agree on Draper - I’m not as sold on him as others are.

 

[Tjblues]

This game is a good example of the good and bad of Draper IMO (though it’s one of his better performances)

He ends with a really nice stat line playing in a senior competition against men, which is important to remember.

He pulls off a couple of nice kicks, his stoppage work is excellent.

Multiple times he has acres of space and runs until he has to handball and a good opportunity to attack comes to nothing.

He’s a handball first player, who seems reluctant to kick. When he has time and space he can pull good things off, but his speed comes back to bite him because he’s often unsteady and erratic

 

[teagueyubeauty]

One things for certain, FOS ain’t no Heeney at the same age comparing vision earlier and what I’ve seen of FOSs YouTube vision


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[GoBlues!]

I reckon Langford could possibly be sitting above Draper in our list of preference now. Red flags on disposal and decision-making are a concern for our team, which does not feature much of either.

Speed has a part to play, but breaking lines can be done with a combination of run and strength and also creativity/decision-making (eg, Bont). I don’t think speed should be disproportionately weighted just because we are a bit slow across the board. Don’t want Matt Kennedy slow, but Langford doesn’t labour like MK and there’s every chance he could follow Crippa’s lead and bring explosiveness into his game (which is more valuable than outright speed imo).

Ok speed, but with strong disposal, body, decision-making, marking and scoreboard impact is more valuable than outright speed with questionable decision-making and disposal.

If Draper’s disposal/decision-making issues are being overstated, then no doubt he’s still firmly on the radar.

There’s a lot to like in Langford’s game.

His kicking into the forward line is elite, something our team is in need of. His long raking left foot kicks seem to travel that bit further and find players on their own. He's also a good mark and can play forward which is a bonus. Will be a great pick up.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

This game is a good example of the good and bad of Draper IMO (though it’s one of his better performances)

He ends with a really nice stat line playing in a senior competition against men, which is important to remember.

He pulls off a couple of nice kicks, his stoppage work is excellent.

Multiple times he has acres of space and runs until he has to handball and a good opportunity to attack comes to nothing.

He’s a handball first player, who seems reluctant to kick. When he has time and space he can pull good things off, but his speed comes back to bite him because he’s often unsteady and erratic

I’ve noticed the same thing with Draper. We don’t need another poor ball user going forward.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

I don’t know what to think about the 5 options at pick 3. Everyone seems to value them very differently. Some have Lalor with issues, some Draper and a lot more comparing FOS to a potential Dow bust with his IQ. Others think FOS is the best of the lot. Putting this all together we could be in for a great few years or another few shit ones while we wait for Walker.

Worth noting that Walker is a similar kick to his father. Long but not accurate. We need class.

 

[DangerousD]

A player who struggles to find the footy has got to be one of the biggest red flags.

Disposal quality can be tidied up

Players can put on size

Ball winning and speed is something that doesn’t change much.

FOS is a worry