Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who will be our first selection on night 2 of the Draft?


  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

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You're right Finn is more agile and faster.

In game though, he gets caught holding the ball more and breaks less tackles.

He has the tools, but what's the point if he can't translate it in game.
I think he’s a guy who tries to hit home runs.

Jagga is efficient and effective. FOS can be boom or bust. I think they both make good decisions. Jagga makes good safe decisions, FOS takes risks that will pay off huge if they work out.

I’m not as down on a guy getting caught HTB as others. Normally it’s a slow enough turnover that the defence can get itself set. I prefer it to a rushed panic handball or kick.

I think it’s all moot as we probably call out whichever of the 2 of them hasn’t been taken by our pick but even though it’s not always evident I prefer FOS’ athletic profile
 
Might just be me HBF, but I see a lot of similarities in ball getting, evasiveness and quick disposal skills between Jagga and Nick Daicos in these highlights.

Putting Jagga in a midfield area linking up with Walsh and Elijah would be a huge POD and lift to our front half attacks.




He wear #7 as well...which of course has recently become vacant ;)

A natural progression I reckons....
 

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I'm getting a Draper feeling now...

My only concern is the go home factor and that he and his whole family are Crows supporters....

He looks mature and strong enough to slot straight in.

I have been a JAGGA advocate but maybe he will be a Tom Mitchell type and get 40 a game but not impact....

I'm glad I'm not the one picking as it would do my head in....



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No one's really a "crows supporter", it's just a product of being a South Australian. Have you ever met someone who supports the Crows outside of Adelaide, it's just a habit. Once Sid comes to a real football club and his family support him for a couple of years they'll be Blues for life. If his family were Port Adelaide SANFL fans, maybe, but I just don't think the Crows are a real club.
 
And yet according to the combine FOS is both faster and more agile than Jagga.

I understand there’s a difference between testing and games but if we have the choice between Jagga and FOS and we want the more athletic one, we’re not taking Jagga
Combine is so different to footy. Sprint speed after playing a game of footy for an hour with the adrenaline up and lactic in your legs is a lot different to sprint speed on a basketball court at a combine. None of FOS' highlights indicated any particular speed to my eye. Was constantly getting tackled as he disposed of the ball out of clearance.
 
And yet according to the combine FOS is both faster and more agile than Jagga.

I understand there’s a difference between testing and games but if we have the choice between Jagga and FOS and we want the more athletic one, we’re not taking Jagga
FOS ran the 20m sprint 0.05 seconds faster and the 2kms 1.0 second slower - fa between them. Saying FOS is more athletic than Jagga based on these results doesn’t really stack up.

The combine testing is also useless when it comes to measuring ball winning ability in congestion, evading tackles and speed in decision making and delivery.

———————————————————-
Jagga did his pick 1 chances no harm with a solid combine weekend, posting a 3.038 second 20m sprint and 6:27 minute 2km time trial.

Finn O'Sullivan recorded a 2.989 second 20m sprint and ran the 2km time trial in 6:28 minutes,
 
The way I'm still looking at it for next year...

Smith
  • We improve offensively and add a bit to our overlap run/transition play through the midfield. Add an elite decision maker to maybe add some general IQ.
  • We remain horrendous defensively in the midfield unless he adds significant amount of muscle over the pre season and buys in defensively.

Draper
  • We add someone capable of running out the front of stoppage and breaking the lines which would hopefully open up the ground a bit and get the ball fwd quickly. Not as polished with ball in hand however
  • We improve significantly defensively through the midfield by adding someone who can rapidly close space and chase down opponents which we currently lack.

Lalor and FOS will go 1+2 imo so I think it's between these two.

Imo the defensive side of the game for whoever we pick up is going to equally as important in selecting our player, which most are overlooking in here.

I'm still taking Draper for that reason. We got sliced up all year with nobody capable of closing down space if the ball left the stoppage.
 
FOS ran the 20m sprint 0.05 seconds faster and the 2kms 1.0 second slower - fa between them. Saying FOS is more athletic than Jagga based on these results doesn’t really stack up.

The combine testing is also useless when it comes to measuring ball winning ability in congestion, evading tackles and speed in decision making and delivery.

———————————————————-
Jagga did his pick 1 chances no harm with a solid combine weekend, posting a 3.038 second 20m sprint and 6:27 minute 2km time trial.

Finn O'Sullivan recorded a 2.989 second 20m sprint and ran the 2km time trial in 6:28 minutes,
I was responding to a post that said Jagga has a speed advantage over FOS.

He doesn’t.

They have similar speed/endurance profiles, but when you add in agility and vertical jump it gives FOS a clear athletic advantage.

I don’t have any issue with people preferring Jagga to FOS, or any of the other prospects, but “he’s faster” just isn’t right
 
The way I'm still looking at it for next year...

Smith
  • We improve offensively and add a bit to our overlap run/transition play through the midfield. Add an elite decision maker to maybe add some general IQ.
  • We remain horrendous defensively in the midfield unless he adds significant amount of muscle over the pre season and buys in defensively.

Draper
  • We add someone capable of running out the front of stoppage and breaking the lines which would hopefully open up the ground a bit and get the ball fwd quickly. Not as polished with ball in hand however
  • We improve significantly defensively through the midfield by adding someone who can rapidly close space and chase down opponents which we currently lack.

Lalor and FOS will go 1+2 imo so I think it's between these two.

Imo the defensive side of the game for whoever we pick up is going to equally as important in selecting our player, which most are overlooking in here.

I'm still taking Draper for that reason. We got sliced up all year with nobody capable of closing down space if the ball left the stoppage.

I agree with this. We have thrown a lot of our eggs into this Pick 3. We have passed over Houston. We have passed over multiple teen picks.

To me, Pick 3 needs to be two things. A longterm 12-15 year player and a player who can help this team in the short/medium term. Our immediate aim is this team winning finals and a flag. IMO Draper's qualities best help these aims. His speed in offense and defense phases is our missing link. And he is at least as ready as anyone to be finals ready to make a difference this year or next.

And he is not just burst and speed. He is as complete a mid as anyone. As AFL level professional as anyone. As much upside as anyone. He's been a star at every level.

IMO of the players Pick 3 worthy, he's the one that suits us most.

I'd still be extremely happy with Lalor. And also happy with Finn or Jagga.
 
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I was responding to a post that said Jagga has a speed advantage over FOS.

He doesn’t.

They have similar speed/endurance profiles, but when you add in agility and vertical jump it gives FOS a clear athletic advantage.

I don’t have any issue with people preferring Jagga to FOS, or any of the other prospects, but “he’s faster” just isn’t right
l believe Fos athletic skills is not evident in games which is more important and relevant.

Fos tends to get caught more often and is much less evasive than Smith.

Smith & Draper are our best two options addressing our mid field issues.
 
I agree with this. We have thrown a lot of our eggs into this Pick 3. We have passed over Houston. We have passed over multiple teen picks.

To me, Pick 3 needs to be two things. A longterm 12-15 year player and a player who can help this team in the short/medium term. Our immediate aim is this team winning finals and a flag. IMO Draper's qualities best help these aims. His speed in offense and defense phases is our missing link. And he is at least as ready as anyone to be finals ready to make a difference this year or next.

And he is not just burst and speed. He is as complete a mid as anyone. As AFL level professional as anyone. As much upside as anyone. He's been a star at every level.

IMO of the players Pick 3 worthy, he's the one that suits us most.

I'd still be extremely happy with Lalor. And also happy with Finn or Jagga.
Are you concerned with his disposal?
On e of the clips had him holding on to the ball too long and then giving off loopy handballs that won’t cut it at afl level. Was concerning. He didn’t have much lead up to the champs

Others have pushed him forward off his SANFL form where presumably his disposal was better
 

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They have similar speed/endurance profiles, but when you add in agility and vertical jump it gives FOS a clear athletic advantage.
Without wanting to labour the point, this clear athletic advantage doesn’t seem to translate into anything meaningful on the football field. If anything it looks to me as though FOS gets caught more in tackles than Jagga does.

You need to consider other important attributes like ball getting ability, evasiveness and quick disposal. I’m not sure a combine result in agility and vertical jump on its own means a great deal.
 
Are you concerned with his disposal?
On e of the clips had him holding on to the ball too long and then giving off loopy handballs that won’t cut it at afl level. Was concerning. He didn’t have much lead up to the champs

Others have pushed him forward off his SANFL form where presumably his disposal was better

No-one is perfect of course, but i'm not overly concerned. The handball technique could use some work. I think at AFL level he'll have team mates running shotgun with him more and oppo defence pushing up more which will provide better options alongside or over the top for handball. Often at junior level he was just left with no instinctive option. And i think his kicking is fine for a super quick player.

I love that SANFL form. The last to take the size of step up to that level that he did were Horne-Francis and Rozee. One is a star and Captain of an AFL Preliminary finalist at about 23 last year and JHF is an even bigger star than Rozee maybe.
 
The way I'm still looking at it for next year...

Smith
  • We improve offensively and add a bit to our overlap run/transition play through the midfield. Add an elite decision maker to maybe add some general IQ.
  • We remain horrendous defensively in the midfield unless he adds significant amount of muscle over the pre season and buys in defensively.

Draper
  • We add someone capable of running out the front of stoppage and breaking the lines which would hopefully open up the ground a bit and get the ball fwd quickly. Not as polished with ball in hand however
  • We improve significantly defensively through the midfield by adding someone who can rapidly close space and chase down opponents which we currently lack.

Lalor and FOS will go 1+2 imo so I think it's between these two.

Imo the defensive side of the game for whoever we pick up is going to equally as important in selecting our player, which most are overlooking in here.

I'm still taking Draper for that reason. We got sliced up all year with nobody capable of closing down space if the ball left the stoppage.
Smith vs Draper defensively is not that big a gap. Both hardly averaged over 2 tackles a game in the champs. Smith's vfl debut showed great ability to tackle, defensive running patterns and outright chasing an opponent.

He's going to impact defensively.

 
Without wanting to labour the point, this clear athletic advantage doesn’t seem to translate into anything meaningful on the football field. If anything it looks to me as though FOS gets caught more in tackles than Jagga does.

You need to consider other important attributes like ball getting ability, evasiveness and quick disposal. I’m not sure a combine result in agility and vertical jump on its own means a great deal.
Game speed. Important in cricket - Warner is lightning in pads. NFL combine has the same issue. Some athletic freaks simply cannot play quickly. Processing speeds, instincts etc. Fair reason to not rely on combine only metric for gauging speed. Imo Fos is a gun but plays a touch slower than Jagga and Draper
 
Smith vs Draper defensively is not that big a gap. Both hardly averaged over 2 tackles a game in the champs. Smith's vfl debut showed great ability to tackle, defensive running patterns and outright chasing an opponent.

He's going to impact defensively.

I wish we had their pressure act stats. From the eye test, I feel they’d be pretty even. But there’s no doubt Draper’s defensive presence around stoppage is significantly ahead of Jagga.
 
Game speed. Important in cricket - Warner is lightning in pads. NFL combine has the same issue. Some athletic freaks simply cannot play quickly. Processing speeds, instincts etc. Fair reason to not rely on combine only metric for gauging speed. Imo Fos is a gun but plays a touch slower than Jagga and Draper
Eye test is far more relevant than fractions of a second variation at testing.

Smarts and/or instincts to read the play. Inclination to defend. Spatial awareness. Team first ethos.
 
I know Langford is more a Jordan Dawson type, but I wouldn't be displeased if we selected him
 
Don’t overthink it Austin and Co.
Lalor - Win
O’Sullivan - Win
Smith - Win
Draper - Win

WE DONT LOSE NO MATTER WHO WE PICK.

INB4 Austin draws a blank on Smith’s name and selects Smillie with Pick 3.
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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