Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Jimmae]

Yep, I’d trade down too. We don’t lose at 3, but we wouldn’t lose at 6 and 11 either, this draft is sooooo deep. Tigers would most likely still get their man at 3, either FOS or Smith. In fact I think Rich would trade 6, 18, 20 for 3 and 38. Gets us everything Austin wants and moves us away from the bid issue.

6 - Smillie
18 - Berry
20 - Barrat
Bid - Ben Camporeale

Smillie and Cripps (and Barrat) can play forward and cover the Martin/Kennedy loss as well as being dominant inside beasts. Berry gives us the extra speedy small. Barrat is Tom Stewart/Barrass type in defence. Camporeale I and II will be steals IMO and have the leg speed, like dad. Rookie a big.

I'd only do that if Hotton was available at the second pick, then I'd grab Hynes after that, but I can't see any aspect of that scenario playing out.

6 & 11 is fair.

If Roos take Tauru at 2 then it means one of FOS, O'Sullivan, Langford or Draper is there at 6. I'd still expect us to take FOS rather then slide down but worth some thought.

Doubt it happens though. If North plan on taking Tauru and Tigers are willing to deal 6 plus change they'll take it.

I don't think North would bite so easily.

They need to accept the value available to them at the pick and stop gifting ascendancy to Richmond.

Work with other trade partners, or just pick a quality mid and trade for a tall next year.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Only problem with that is Austin has what he wants. Pick 3.

He’s not trading down.

 

[Jimmae]

Only problem with that is Austin has what he wants. Pick 3.

He’s not trading down.

He can't be that myopic, surely.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I'd only do that if Hotton was available at the second pick, then I'd grab Hynes after that, but I can't see any aspect of that scenario playing out.

6 & 11 is fair.

I don't think North would bite so easily.

They need to accept the value available to them at the pick and stop gifting ascendancy to Richmond.

Work with other trade partners, or just pick a quality mid and trade for a tall next year.

If it got to a scenario (not saying it will) where they decide to reach for Tauru at 2 and they 100% know he's there at 6 and Richmond were offering 6+18/20 they would be mad not to take it. Essentially throwing away 18/20 on principle.

 

[GoBlues!]

If Ben is bid on before pick 38.
Is it against the rules to work with a club say “Sydney” trade 38 to Sydney for their future 2nd rounder, match Ben with later picks. Then when it gets to Sydney’s pick 41 trade, their or Brisbanes second back to them for that pick.

Sydney - Move from pick 41 to pick 38 (for their help)
Carlton - Use their later picks on Ben and only move back a few picks in the draft.

We’d have to trade the Brisbane F2 back, but otherwise looks okay to me.

In matching a Saints bid with our 63, 68, 69 we would end up with about 195 left-over points which generates a mid-70s pick I think.

This leaves us with 41, 72, 75ish and potentially an upgraded F2 (Swans instead of Lions F2).

Sydney end up with 38 (instead of 41) in a strong draft and potentially a downgraded F2 (Lions F2 for their F2).

Seems like a win all round - get it done T.

 

[Coona Blues]

The Draper pars defect revelation is concerning I must say.

Still of the opinion we end up with FOS either way but as someone who's brother in law has struggled with the same issue most of his adult life I'd almost be inclined to go Smith>Draper purely on the clean bill of health basis.

I just want a kid we can rely on for 20+ games next year and hopefully for most of their career

I find it astounding that it has not been more in the media. ZeroHanger is hardly mainstream media. The word chronic is quite alarming. The suggestion that it was the reason he did not take part in the combine is the biggest trigger.

I was aware, in part, of my defect at around 20. My chiropractor (old school, up with any physio, ortho you would meet) told me early I would have significant trouble later in life. While I can’t say didn’t affect me until later, not knowing how it contributed to soft tissue injuries etc, with regular adjustments I stayed in decent condition in to my thirties.

It is quite possible the condition could be managed in a professional environment and he could have a long and successful career. How on earth do we gamble on that though. We have Walshy already compromised with spinal issues. We would be exceptionally game to gamble on medical grounds. There is, of course, always the chance that there is an exaggeration in order to discourage suitors.

I genuinely have had Draper no. 1 in a very open draft. DUE DILIGENCE is essential though.

 

[Sweet Seventeen]

100%, that’s super scary.

With the next level increase in work load you just don’t know what can happen.
Yes there’s the best medical support available but when u ramp up the workload that’s when things flare/develop.

Given what’s available at our pick, I’d be taking a very wide berth, why take the risk even if it’s low.

Agree, but clubs can be sneaky at this time of the year. For me, it is highly likely that Draper is very healthy. Cows are just

sayin' **** off and let us take our boy. I hope I am right, for the kids sake.

 

[SurreyBlue]

We’d have to trade the Brisbane F2 back, but otherwise looks okay to me.

In matching a Saints bid with our 63, 68, 69 we would end up with about 195 left-over points which generates a mid-70s pick I think.

This leaves us with 41, 72, 75ish and potentially an upgraded F2 (Swans instead of Lions F2).

Sydney end up with 38 (instead of 41) in a strong draft and potentially a downgraded F2 (Lions F2 for their F2).

Seems like a win all round - get it done T.

If our 38 is used on Ben and we have additional points left over, do these points upgrade our 63 pick to say 58 as an example?

BTW - IMO, the team that could bid on Ben is Port at 36. I feel SoS will be looking for KP at his pick.

 

[marcmurphy3]

If our 38 is used on Ben and we have additional points left over, do these points upgrade our 63 pick to say 58 as an example?

BTW - IMO, the team that could bid on Ben is Port at 36. I feel SoS will be looking for KP at his pick.

Yeah, I think the way it works is your picks get swallowed up one by one and if the last pick only requires partial points, then it will slide back the appropriate amount so that you pay the exact points total required but no more.

 

[GoBlues!]

I find it astounding that it has not been more in the media. ZeroHanger is hardly mainstream media. The word chronic is quite alarming. The suggestion that it was the reason he did not take part in the combine is the biggest trigger.

I was aware, in part, of my defect at around 20. My chiropractor (old school, up with any physio, ortho you would meet) told me early I would have significant trouble later in life. While I can’t say didn’t affect me until later, not knowing how it contributed to soft tissue injuries etc, with regular adjustments I stayed in decent condition in to my thirties.

It is quite possible the condition could be managed in a professional environment and he could have a long and successful career. How on earth do we gamble on that though. We have Walshy already compromised with spinal issues. We would be exceptionally game to gamble on medical grounds. There is, of course, always the chance that there is an exaggeration in order to discourage suitors.

I genuinely have had Draper no. 1 in a very open draft. DUE DILIGENCE is essential though.

Coona my limited understanding is that an acute par defect (fracture) can eventually heal itself with rest. However a Chronic par defect (break) would require surgery.

Clubs interested in Draper would surely want to see an MRI or scans to confirm for themselves if it’s chronic or not.

Can’t imagine the Draper camp wouldn’t say anything or correct the injury claim if it was an exaggeration. It would also be the height of stupidity for the media to report it’s chronic if it’s not.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I find it astounding that it has not been more in the media. ZeroHanger is hardly mainstream media. The word chronic is quite alarming. The suggestion that it was the reason he did not take part in the combine is the biggest trigger.

I was aware, in part, of my defect at around 20. My chiropractor (old school, up with any physio, ortho you would meet) told me early I would have significant trouble later in life. While I can’t say didn’t affect me until later, not knowing how it contributed to soft tissue injuries etc, with regular adjustments I stayed in decent condition in to my thirties.

It is quite possible the condition could be managed in a professional environment and he could have a long and successful career. How on earth do we gamble on that though. We have Walshy already compromised with spinal issues. We would be exceptionally game to gamble on medical grounds. There is, of course, always the chance that there is an exaggeration in order to discourage suitors.

I genuinely have had Draper no. 1 in a very open draft. DUE DILIGENCE is essential though.

I haven’t been on the Draper train, so this definitely put me off Draper - it’s not worth the risks whilst we have an option for Smith or FOS

Play it safe & lock in Smith thanks!

 

[Arr0w]

We don't have the picks to trade up and if I was a club that had mulitple picks betweeb 4 to10, I doubt they would trade them for pick 3

 

[marcmurphy3]

We don't have the picks to trade up and if I was a club that had mulitple picks betweeb 4 to10, I doubt they would trade them for pick 3

Plus, the Roos have 2 and actually want to split their pick. If there isn't an offer good enough for them, there definately won't be one good enough for us. And if there is they would take it first.

 

[GoBlues!]

Agree, but clubs can be sneaky at this time of the year. For me, it is highly likely that Draper is very healthy. Cows are just

sayin' f--- off and let us take our boy. I hope I am right, for the kids sake.

There’s sneaky and there’s stupid SS.

Interested Clubs would insist on seeing MRI and CT scans which would easily confirm what type of par defect it is. So it would easy enough to disprove if it’s an exaggeration.

As Coona says, reporting it’s chronic puts in a whole different category.

 

[Sweet Seventeen]

There’s sneaky and there’s stupid SS.

Interested Clubs would insist on seeing MRI and CT scans which would easily confirm what type of par defect it is. So it would easy enough to disprove if it’s an exaggeration.

As Coona says, reporting it’s chronic puts in a whole different category.

Fair comment, just find it very interesting how this info has just come to light. Apparently only from the one source as well.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

I have to say, I’m feeling overwhelmed with contentment knowing we will end up with either FOS or Jagga.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Class of 2024: SA speedster Draper on overcoming injury, brotherly love

Get to know South Australian midfielder Sid Draper ahead of the 2024 AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[FlowersByIrene]

If Draper can be got around 11, we should 100% try and split #3....

Zero chance Draper makes it past 8 and a very slim chance he makes it past 4.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Pars Defect stuff has to be bullshit, it would be so much more widely reported if it was true.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Class of 2024: SA speedster Draper on overcoming injury, brotherly love

Get to know South Australian midfielder Sid Draper ahead of the 2024 AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Interesting in this video he mentions playing with Bryce Gibbs - suspect the Club would have reached out to ask Gibbsy for his insight on Sid.

 

[Jimmae]

If it got to a scenario (not saying it will) where they decide to reach for Tauru at 2 and they 100% know he's there at 6 and Richmond were offering 6+18/20 they would be mad not to take it. Essentially throwing away 18/20 on principle.

My point was I'd try to turn it into a different later combo if possible, but I don't see Richmond doing a deal like that.

They've clearly done a lot of planning for this specific talent pool, and I don't blame them.

I'd also be shocked if they went hard on talls, especially in the top 10. They need a key forward for the future, but otherwise they can just pick the value, which is an exciting crop of midfielders and small forwards.

 

[Jimmae]

Pars Defect stuff has to be bullshit, it would be so much more widely reported if it was true.

I think people are confusing 'chronic' with 'severe' or 'acute', and perhaps rest + medication, or a minor surgical intervention will fix the issue.

But this speaks nothing of the shin issues he had this year.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Full season highlights (with a few bonus bits from season 2023) for the mystery man Finn O'Sullivan. Might be the most talented of the 2024 crop but injuries prevented him from showing his full potential. If he slides on draft night he could make some recruitment teams look foolish in a year or two.

FOS' goal kicking is a real standout - some wonderful goals from the 40-50m range for the kid.

 

[BlueNath]

I see a warming on the poll for FOS after his highlights. He has jumped 3% to be sitting at 32% now. I wonder if he can close the gap on Jagga by the time the draft rolls around

 

[GT619]

Could be even better than Sticks, Bradley’s and Mots coming in 86. Just hope none of them have the bad fortune that Mots encountered to take away his dreams and talent.

I still haven't forgotten about that