Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who should Carlton take at Pick 3 if available?


  • Total voters
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This is a really nice summary of the top(ish) 30.

 
Aside from Cripps in 2022, we haven't had a 20+ disposal mid with good goal/game average since Marc Murphy did in 2011...

If we draft FOS and he can consistently produce that, we've won with pick 3 big time.
Grab Smith and he'll average 35+ per game.
 

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I see a warming on the poll for FOS after his highlights. He has jumped 3% to be sitting at 32% now. I wonder if he can close the gap on Jagga by the time the draft rolls around

Wayyyyy better highlights than I’d seen before, certainly can see why he’s rated by clubs highly now.



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Grab Smith and he'll average 35+ per game.

That's not the point...

An accumulator is not particularly what we need imo.

If Smith can achieve that many possessions whilst being able to have a good goal/game average, he'd be among the top 5 players in the comp.

The only downsides I have with Smith, metres gained - he tends to go backwards as much as he does forwards. Also his kick isn't as penetrating as you'd want.
 
I just wanted to commend Coona Blues for sharing his experience.

My own spinal troubles (cauda equina syndrome and spondylosis) began when I was late teens into early 20s. At this time I had access to high level pro sports medical teams. I was constantly advised that. With all of those supports in place, receiving MRIs and other scans I was told that my issues wouldn't manifest until I was in my 60s.

Long bouts of awful sciatica (month long) every two years from the age of 26 and new scans fed into the same feedback levelled at me.

A life of playing sport (from 5 until 25) followed by a shortened career of long haul flights, days worth of long car rides to various high school, college and pro basketball games, and my spine gave up the ghost at 38 rather than the predicted 60s.

Almost everything Coona has said mirrors my experience. However, when I required surgery at the start of 2019 I was fortunate enough to be in the hands of someone who is recognised as one of Australia's leading spinal surgeons. It was a miracle that I got her.

The surgery was considered as successful as possible. That hasn't prevented what will be a lifetime of disability and setbacks. It took a leading team over 2.5 years following spinal surgery to understand some of the setbacks that I was having.

I understand the frustration that Coona has had. Being thrown through the ringer after surgery has been draining. That's where I'm hoping the difference is for a guy like Draper. But again, I was in the initial hands of one of our leading surgeons who went through my post surgery scans and still had NFI why I was having post operative issues. Eventually I was placed in the top hard basket.

Even AFL players have ended up in the "too hard basket." There's a number of former professional athletes (including AFL players) who are in the support groups I'm in for my spinal issues. Some of the worst nightmare stories have been AFL related (the worst a former Port player who after their career is in daily suicide levels of pain, can't even sit straight, and has been told that there's not much that can be done for them)

My point is that it's not just limited to the public health care sector though Coona and I have both had similarly disappointing experiences. .

It's this that you'll never hear me say a bad word about Walsh. I'm concerned about him post career but it's both inspiring and scary how hard he's pushed himself to get back to the level he's at.
 
Lalor and a happy dance
wolf of wall street GIF
 

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Wayyyyy better highlights than I’d seen before, certainly can see why he’s rated by clubs highly now.



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Was my choice before the vid but after seeing the way he marks the ball I’m all in.

Everyone clunks the occasional impressive grab, he was doing it for shits & giggles!
Love anyone who can mark at absolute full extension so consistently, seeing him slot pretty much every type of goal u want to see is bloody handy too.

Would be awesome to see a kid come in early & be able to rest forward & be a threat.

The weighting of his kicks impresses me too - always to advantage & anytime he missed it actually gave the other player more time.

Hoping he’s still there or Jagga will do 😉
 
I need a good Smith highlight - as I’ve got easily seduced by FOS

We can’t lose by either of them, but if we have to pick one - who suits our team better for 2025 & 2026?
 
I'll just leave these here... I also keep hearing, 'not great by foot'...





If anything those Dow highlights look a lot closer to FOS' than Drapers, often being tackled as he kicks, appears to have a nice long and accurate kick from his goals and some of his disposals. Mark out on the lead. Disappointingly Dow showed none of that at AFL level.
 
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I need a good Smith highlight - as I’ve got easily seduced by FOS

We can’t lose by either of them, but if we have to pick one - who suits our team better for 2025 & 2026?
Either works, FOS consistently picks the best outlet (few highlights of him not taking the obvious & going wider) & the weighting of his hands/kick opens play, Jagga is a slippery little shit & see’s all the options - then makes good decisions.

I think FOS has more power & his marking will really help us - either is going to help us open up play. IMO FOS will have more impact season 1.

Moving up has been a bloody good decision, we can’t lose with either
 
That's not the point...

An accumulator is not particularly what we need imo.

If Smith can achieve that many possessions whilst being able to have a good goal/game average, he'd be among the top 5 players in the comp.

The only downsides I have with Smith, metres gained - he tends to go backwards as much as he does forwards. Also his kick isn't as penetrating as you'd want.
Agreed but he is the best option if FOS is gone. Has improved his impact in the forward half.
 
All this talk about chronic back issues could be a ploy by Adelaide to get their man. It is plausible when you consider his whole family are mad crow supporters.

This is a possibility and has crossed my mind but surely any club worth it's salt is going to have medical reports in hand of top prospects they've scouted especially if they've cited it as a reason for withdrawing from a combine.
 
That ability from Finn could be a real threat and POD in our midfield that we don’t have and really help our side next year
k
When you consider the information that’s out there (media, rumour, chatter etc.), it points to:

Lalor goes to Tiges at 1

We take FOS if he gets to our pick at 3/4
If he goes before our pick, to either North, or Tiges (or Saints? However unlikely)

We’ll be deciding between Smith and Langford.
Exactly as I see it. Langford is very under-rated by many. His elite kicking would be very helpful though.
 
As exciting as highlights are I think we need to take them in context. Not hard to find 5-6 minutes of elite footage across a whole season (2 in FOS case). It gives us an idea of peak potential but that's about it.

I prefer looking at match tapes or highlights from specific matches which often include every play the player is involved in. Gives you a better idea of their best, their worst and what their regular standard is.

As an example, if you were picking based on highlights you would take David Cunningham over Sam Walsh every day of the week. But as we know Walshy is a much better player.
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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