Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Drapers decision making is an issue. All the draftees have there weaknesses and with Draper it’s clear in the YouTube clips that by hand he takes poor options sometimes. Either that or he doesn’t handball to advantage of the receiver. His handballs can result in the ball being turned over.

While Draper is far more powerful than say jagga, jagga decision making is far better.


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That’s the way I viewed the video also but hard to make a decisive assessment from such a small sample size when I haven’t seen any full game vision etc.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Drapers decision making is an issue. All the draftees have there weaknesses and with Draper it’s clear in the YouTube clips that by hand he takes poor options sometimes. Either that or he doesn’t handball to advantage of the receiver. His handballs can result in the ball being turned over.

While Draper is far more powerful than say jagga, jagga decision making is far better.


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I'll beg to differ.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

We are?

There’s not always great grandma in forums

 

[bmaurizio]

There's no way North will go further down than 6/7. And that's a very good deal for Richmond. But if they want to keep 6, then it's either North deal with a 3rd party (Melb/StK prob) or a 3rd party gets involved (or it doesn't happen!!)

3rd party deal might be something like - Richmond get 2, North get 5+, Melb get 10+

I'd bid on both Ashcroft )unless there is a possible deal to improve pick 38) and Lombard

Agree on bidding for Levi Ashcroft and Lombard, once we secure Finn O'Sullivan, more comfortable with a Victorian boy, it would be great if we could improve our pick 38, that's Austin challenge I'd love a crack at James Barrat.

 

[Bletch]

I honestly can't remember regarding Binns, as we were all lost in the Hotton hype. However, words regarding our interest in Wilson definitely dropped but nobody played close attention, probably because it was so far out from the draft.

Here's a couple:

Across all kids

1st round - Any of Hotton, Busslinger, Hayes

2nd round - Binns, Barnett, Szybkowski, Edmends, Scaife, Weddle ( If he grows), Jones, Dowling

After that, Petric, Long, Drury, Tregenza-Cashell, Grant, Walker, Scully, Foster, Allen, Pascu

So after watching the game today and getting a closer look at some of the players around our pick I'll go through my thoughts on them.
Tsatas and Ashcroft obviously are going 1-5 so they are no chance of reaching us, though I thought both were incredibly underwhelming today.

For our first round pick:

Ollie Hotton - Very ordinary performance for mine, 9 touches, 0 goals, 2 behinds... Didn't really do a heap. Definitely has some AFL traits in that he's got that burst of speed and a good sidestep, but he reminds me way too much of Cuningham in that he just doesn't seem to find the ball consistently and although he can be high impact per touch, is 15-20 touches per game really going to cut it at the next level? His game last week was much much better.

Ollie Hollands - Amazing game from Hollands, 23 touches at 83%. Top rated player on the ground too. My biggest concern is his body to be completely honest. He reads the play incredibly, runs as hard as anyone and is surprisingly tough for such a slender kid. Imagine LoB if he could kick on both feet and actually knows how to use his body in contest work. A few awesome defensive pressure efforts that won't be on the stats list but his pressure rating was the highest on ground too. However... he just has one of those bodies that you really can't see developing much, I imagine the biggest he could end up is a Lachie Whitfield type, he's never going to have the power and strength of his older brother. Only other knock I have is some of his kicking was asking for trouble, a few he got away with but hung in the air a bit too long when going for a corridor kick or a long switch... If he can add some more strength I'm sure this would largely be a non issue as he'll get a touch more penetration through the ball, but definitely took some risky options.

Matt Jefferson - Really liked the game from Jefferson, has a bit of swagger about him which I always like and is extremely mobile for his size. Kicked 2.2 for the game and did some nice things at times, and some stupid things too. Cadman is the standout 'key forward' in that he's got an amazing contested game and looks as strong as an ox already at a young age... But Jefferson does look like on of those Gunston types who's a difficult match up as a third tall who can run up and down the wings too Jeremy Cameron style. Issue is with that is his kicking and decision making doesn't seem to be a particular strength, so it could be a lot of gathering touches up the ground that end up being turnovers. Still quite a raw prospect and could be a real player in the future if he tidies up a few things.

Cam Mckenzie - 21 touches at 76% playing mostly inside mid. Half and half with Mckenzie, he's no doubt about it the best disposal by foot in the Victorian crop and probably the draft class. Sheezel is capable of the freakish but Mckenzie has GAJ type precision. Weights his kicks perfectly any time he's in space and completely takes the speed off the ball too which would be a leading forwards wet dream. His contested work seemed pretty good and he can win the ball but I could easily see him playing half forward/wing early days and just being silk with his disposal rather than a big accumulator. Similar to Cerra in my mind where you can play him wing or on ball and get two completely different players depending on where he is.

Jhye Clark - My favourite player in the draft, basically Joel Selwood 2.0. 16 touches, 8 tackles and probably 3-4 more that weren't counted 70% DE and was good without being amazing. Runs all day, puts his body on the line over and over again and shows leadership on field unmatched by any other kid in the draft. Every time an opposition player made a mistake or took a mark before he could spoil/intercept it he would let them know about it. Slams his opponents into the ground with every tackle and makes sure they can taste the soil a bit. In terms of disposal, reading of the game etc... He's nothing out of the ordinary, does everything to a high standard but certainly not a match winning type. Reliable by hand and foot, good in the contest and looks to have some forward nous to go with an awesome vertical leap. Would be over the moon if we were to get him as a slider.

Humphrey - 1.3 and I think about 4 disposals which should have been shots on goal that he randomly chose to centre instead. Had 11 touches and he certainly has all the athletic gifts to be a serious player, but as I mentioned earlier he just makes poor decisions consistently. He almost looks like someone who's never played footy before and is just there because he's a beast in the gym and his mates asked him to come down for a game on the weekend. In my opinion someone we should steer clear of, but if we did take him I'd be very excited for what he could do in 3-4 years when he develops his craft. Quads would rival Bam Bam's for size, but he moves a lot quicker than Bam Bam and really could be anything if he's developed right.

Hayes - 2nd highest rated behind Ashcroft for Metro, reads the play beautifully and is an astonishingly good kick for his size. One thing I didn't like about his game is that he often looks for a handball to a running midfielder like Young does for us... BUT LEWIS YOU'RE PROBABLY THE 2ND BEST KICK IN YOUR TEAM. He's got a lot to work on in terms of bulking up and his body work in one on ones but to be fair he was against some of the best talents you'll see in Cadman and Reid. I really really like him, wouldn't be displeased with picking him up as I think he reads the ball as well as someone like Marchbank or Gov but will likely develop into more that real KPD given the extra height he has. I'd still rate Busslinger higher but I have no doubts Hayes could surpass him when looking back on this draft.


Mckenzie, Clark and Humphrey are far from certainties to be there at our pick, but I think any of the 3 could slide to us given their are some prospects who other clubs may reach for given their upside vs their proven performances.



For our second round pick:

Konstanty - Looks very lively in the forward half as a tackling threat and found himself in dangerous positions a few times but only ended up with 1.3 which I guess diminished what could have been a really huge game for him. Seems to have a decent reading of the play but I certainly don't rate him in the same class as Motlop or a Pickett type who seem to have multiple avenues to goal. Seems much more a pressure forward type than a real goalkicking specialist. Tackles well and had 4 today which is just about his standard, but don't think he's really the type we're after.

Szybkowski - Take everything I said about Cam Mckenzie and then just imagine the B- version. He's big, he's decent in the contest, can win his own ball inside and out but his kicking isn't anywhere near as good and I wouldn't say he has great vision from in tight or in open space. In all honesty he reminds me a bit of Acres in that I can still see him having a long AFL career as he works hard and certainly does most things at a good standard, but doubt he ever ends up a real top player due to just being a notch or two below the absolute guns.

Binns - Thought he's been awesome the last couple of games I've seen of him and today did his chances no harms. 21 touches at 90% and I'm positive would have been plenty of metres gained. Not really sure why he's as far down some phantom drafts as he is because he seems quite a likely type. Extremely good runner and from what I've seen he really hits the game with speed, runs by for handballs in a full on sprint and although I wasn't able to get a close look at his kicks as I was on the other side of the ground, from what I saw at a distance he picked the right options consistently. Hit a few gems at long range while at full speed which gave me some Isaac Smith flashbacks. Does tend to kick long a fair bit though, I have no issues with that normally as he tends to really drill them in so the ball gets there quite quickly. Would be very happy with him at our 2nd pick if we were to go a Jefferson or Busslinger with our first.

 

[Coona Blues]

What's wrong with bidding on Ashcroft? He could be the be the best player in the draft - a bid a pick 1 wouldn't be surprising aside from the fact of the no.1 pick $ bonus so clubs want their kid to get it.

Not sure we want to engage in “keeping clubs honest” with the Camporeale boys, some NGA prospects next year and possible pick 1 Cody Walker in 2026. Laying low would be a good way to go for mine.

There are plenty of Father/son and Academy picks going too cheaply, but I can understand the logic. There is no way Ben Campo gets to 38 by all logic, but it looms as a possibility, so we should play nice and not be THAT CLUB.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Not sure we want to engage in “keeping clubs honest” with the Camporeale boys, some NGA prospects next year and possible pick 1 Cody Walker in 2026. Laying low would be a good way to go for mine.

There are plenty of Father/son and Academy picks going too cheaply, but I can understand the logic. There is no way Ben Campo gets to 38 by all logic, but it looms as a possibility, so we should play nice and not be THAT CLUB.

Yep. No need. No advantage. Would be silly to bid.

Some people say we need to be more ruthless. I'd prefer we be ruthless on the field then shooting ourselves in the foot through bidding.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

We did a pick swap with Brisbane so might have agreed to no bids on each other

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Btw I wouldn't put much credence into ESPN's AFL coverage, I get the feeling their presence here in Australia is pretty minimal - I doubt they get good mail.

It was Knightmare for a while

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Here's a couple:

The original inference was we knew who Austin wanted, the examples given were a couple of our footy nerds making comment on players and nothing from Austin.

No one had any idea who Austin wanted Last year or any year he’s been list manager and neither does anyone this year

Hasn’t been a sneaky leaker for ages besides Soapy and a couple of others putting up our wish list ie 2 picks prior to 20 etc etc And I think that was strategic information let out


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[The Return of the Paf]

The original inference was we knew who Austin wanted, the examples given were a couple of our footy nerds making comment on players and nothing from Austin.

No one had any idea who Austin wanted Last year or any year he’s been list manager and neither does anyone this year

Hasn’t been a sneaky leaker for ages besides Soapy and a couple of others putting up our wish list ie 2 picks prior to 20 etc etc And I think that was strategic information let out


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If you choose to take any notice you would. Having no idea because you don't believe the signs is different to things not leaking. Silvagni broke the mold for a little while but it has been back.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

That’s not what I remember at all


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[FlowersByIrene]

It was Knightmare for a while

Exactly.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

That’s not what I remember at all


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There have been no examples of 'we will take player 'x'' or whatever... it's never been that blunt. However, we do draft a high percentage of the players we've been rumored to be interested in.

Maybe I just notice more than others because I'm notoriously hard to please, whereas other people just view 'said' players as just another option and forget about it.

 

[zeeCFC]

I followed it pretty closely too. He was linked several times. There was some talk on this board about it because nobody thought he should go that high and were hoping the link was for a later pick.

Was by no means definitive though so would have been easy to miss and we were linked with a couple of others too. Mainly running half back types. Roberts, Lual, Carroll (who we rookied) and Edwards are the names I recall.

Binns link was stronger. He was no surprise at all by the time draft night came.

I stand corrected, i went back and searched and you were the first to bring it up lol. Fair play

 

[Red_man2008]

We did a pick swap with Brisbane so might have agreed to no bids on each other

The afl have warned clubs about this.

 

[Juice030103]

Just how I read this

The north and Draper links I reckon are a ploy to get an extra pick from Crom and they still get their actual player at 4

 

[BigFrizz36]

We did a pick swap with Brisbane so might have agreed to no bids on each other

The lions have 2 picks before 38 which will be wiped put by academy bids. They can't and wouldn't be interested in bidding on the Camporeale brothers.

 

[Wickzki]

Swap F1s?

For Crows to take FOS?

Edit: that actually doesn’t make any sense. Crows to give F1 for Roos’ F2? That would be huge overs to move up 2 spots.

Sorry, I didn't get a chance to reply last night.

What I'd heard is that Adelaide and North were haggling over swapping pick 2 for pick 4 with North getting one or two of Adelaide's 3 F3s (they own their own, GWS and Melbourne thirds).

North want Tauru. Adelaide want Draper.

If that's the case there is nothing stopping us from doing a handshake deal with Melbourne if they want Tauru.

If we traded down to 5 then that would then mean 3 of the midfielders would be gone before our selection (Lalor, Draper and whoever North choose at 4 with Tauru gone to Melbourne at 3).

It doesn't make sense for us to trade down if we have our eyes locked on someone.

Makes sense for North and Adelaide to swap around as Adelaide isn't taking the player North want and neither are we.

 

[BlueNath]

The afl have warned clubs about this.

Do you honestly think it doesn't happen though? The AFL wants people to believe there is no collusion going on

 

[marcmurphy3]

The afl have warned clubs about this.

Impossible to police. They can warn all they like.

 

[Stamos]

Sorry, I didn't get a chance to reply last night.

What I'd heard is that Adelaide and North were haggling over swapping pick 2 for pick 4 with North getting one or two of Adelaide's 3 F3s (they own their own, GWS and Melbourne thirds).

North want Tauru. Adelaide want Draper.

Wow.
Crumbs for North. Seems desperate to not appear like they’re reaching?

Edit: also, if North want Tauru, then what’s the benefit to the Crows? Draper will be there at their pick anyway?
I guess it stops another club trading up to 2 and taking FOS.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Wow.
Crumbs for North. Seems desperate to not appear like they’re reaching?

Edit: also, if North want Tauru, then what’s the benefit to the Crows? Draper will be there at their pick anyway?
I guess it stops another club trading up to 2 and taking FOS.

I assume that's why Crows would only chuck in an F3. They'd be fairly confident Draper is there at 4 anyway. Maybe happy to pay an F3 to make it 100%.

 

[SurreyBlue]

It sounds to me like the Crows might be a little confident we will draft Draper.

 

[Bag of Nuts]

It sounds to me like the Crows might be a little confident we will draft Draper.

Has been some rumours that North are keen on Draper at 2… maybe smoke and mirrors from them to try and get Adelaide to pay up and then North take Tauru at 4?