Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Juice030103]

We’d need to build a bigger salary cap




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I look at the salary cap and I’m like wow, what a great salary cap. It’s great

 

[Blue__Balls]

Ok. It would probably be about better fit than better talent. But probably the same answer?

Yeah, same answer, in my view anyway. Lalor looks good, but I reckon the "explosive" tag is a bit overdone. He's strong, for sure, busts through tackles and lays some really strong ones himself. But moving into the AFL against mature bodies is going to hamper that a little and it'll probably take him a year or two before he can play the same way at senior level as he does juniors. I think if we were looking for an understudy to replace Cripps then he'd be a good bet. But we're looking for something complementary, and I see 3-4 other top candidates that I'd rate as at least on par for talent but who help balance our midfield mix better.

We could give him the Petracca/De Goey treatment and start him forward for a few years while we build his tank, looking to then transition him into the middle as Cripps fades. But I worry he'd be a bit starved up forward for us with two premium KPP targets plus guys like Moir, Lij and SOS in that mix.

I think it'd be better planning for us to take one of the more nimble midfield options now, and look to Cody Walker in a couple of years as the likely Cripps successor.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yeah, same answer, in my view anyway. Lalor looks good, but I reckon the "explosive" tag is a bit overdone. He's strong, for sure, busts through tackles and lays some really strong ones himself. I think if we were looking for an understudy to replace Cripps then he'd be a good bet. But we're looking for something complementary, and I see 3-4 other top candidates that I'd rate as at least on par for talent but who help balance our midfield mix better.

We could give him the Petracca/De Goey treatment and start him forward for a few years while we build his tank, looking to then transition him into the middle as Cripps fades. But I worry he'd be a bit starved up forward for us with two premium KPP targets plus guys like Moir, Lij and SOS in that mix.

I think it'd be better planning for us to take one of the more nimble midfield options now, and look to Cody Walker in a couple of years as the likely Cripps successor.

I agree.

I feel Lalor is more a Cripps type with better forward craft and disposal, then a Degoey, Martin or Petracca. He's seems more explosive in the sense of being strong and able to burst through tackles then through leg speed. You don't really see him running away from packs. Could still do with him for sure but don't think he'd be the answer as far as adding speed to our midfield.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

For me Lalor as a player comparison, speed, power, size & build, overall football traits resembles Stringer…

He has the ability forward and midfield, in the air or on the ground, body use, goal sense, good un/contested balance game…

Genuine 50/50 forward/midfielder he’ll become once he’s better developed down the track in 3/4 years…

 

[marcmurphy3]

Gone from thinking we will end of up Jagga or Draper (more likely Jagga) to about 80% confident it's FOS. Always felt FOS was the target (just too much talk around it) but figured he'd be gone.

The talk now is that the Tigers aren't really keen to trade up to 2 and it would require a change of heart for it to happen. Plus, the Roos continually being linked to Tauru. If they've really fallen in love with him and he's there, I find it hard to see them not reaching for him.

So, FOS seems the most likely option.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Gone from thinking we will end of up Jagga or Draper (more likely Jagga) to about 80% confident it's FOS. Always felt FOS was the target (just too much talk around it) but figured he'd be gone.

The talk now is that the Tigers aren't really keen to trade up to 2 and it would require a change of heart for it to happen. Plus, the Roos continually being linked to Tauru. If they've really fallen in love with him and he's there, I find it hard to see them not reaching for him.

So, FOS seems the most likely option.

I still wouldn’t be shocked if FOS goes no.1

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I still wouldn’t be shocked if FOS goes no.1

If we believe what the media are feeding us, the Tiggs are supposedly very keen on FOS. Although I still reckon that their supporters would burn the joint down on Punt Rd if they didn't take their Dusty clone at pick 1.

I tend to think that there'll ultimately be a trade between the Tiggs and Norf - they'll negotiate something to give Norf an extra first round pick, with pick 2 ending up with Richmond....however it wouldn't be at all surprising if they went with Jagga at pick 2 rather than FOS. Basically getting Martin and Cotchin Mark 2.

 

[marcmurphy3]

If we believe what the media are feeding us, the Tiggs are supposedly very keen on FOS. Although I still reckon that their supporters would burn the joint down on Punt Rd if they didn't take their Dusty clone at pick 1.

I tend to think that there'll ultimately be a trade between the Tiggs and Norf - they'll negotiate something to give Norf an extra first round pick, with pick 2 ending up with Richmond....however it wouldn't be at all surprising if they went with Jagga at pick 2 rather than FOS. Basically getting Martin and Cotchin Mark 2.

From all reports they don't see a big difference between players at 2 and 6. They'll still have access to that top group of mids. If they force North to use 2 on Tauru even a Jagga could get there. They want to cash in a couple of later picks for F1s. Sets their list up much better long term. Even if the deal was only 6+20 for 2. They could get an F1 for 20 so in reality it's 6+F1 vs 2.

I'm less of a sceptic of the media then others. When the whispers are this loud and this consistent (e.g. Lalor pick 1, Tauru to North) 9 times out of 10 they're right.

 

[Jimmae]

He fits into that striker mid category... lower possessions but high impact. Its like comparing say a Hayden Young and a Serong at Freo. Different types. We dont have a striker mid.

We do, we just have:

• one that constantly pings his hamstring
• one that we've been trying to use as a key defender
• one that has 2 blokes hanging off him constantly while we gave an egotistical winger and a bloke with shot legs key midfield roles

And I feel like this whole 'striker mid' category is delusional groupthink that undervalues players who are capable of both accumulating and providing high impact disposal when the opportunity presents itself.

Need to be able to separate out when players are being restricted, and how they are working around that, and how the team can better work around that.

 

[koutashoulda1_1]

So you should be. Langford is the best at many things in this pool with too many making like his sprint speed is a big deal around here because of the raging hard ons for 'speed' and only leg speed at that.


Langford doesn't play slow. He creates space has an amazing kick amazing vision and is a brilliant mark for his size too. Best long and short kick of the top bunch. If north don't figure out a way to get Tauru by trading down you couldn't be disappointed with Langford at all. Don't think north can lose unless they overpay with 2 for Tauru

Bit of a Gibbs in that regard

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[WalshistheGOAT]

We do, we just have:

• one that constantly pings his hamstring
• one that we've been trying to use as a key defender
• one that has 2 blokes hanging off him constantly while we gave an egotistical winger and a bloke with shot legs key midfield roles

And I feel like this whole 'striker mid' category is delusional groupthink that undervalues players who are capable of both accumulating and providing high impact disposal when the opportunity presents itself.

Need to be able to separate out when players are being restricted, and how they are working around that, and how the team can better work around that.

Kemp isn't playing on ball for a reason Jim. It's not because Walsh has a big ego, it's because he's not good enough to displace others.

 

[Jimmae]

Kemp isn't playing on ball for a reason Jim. It's not because Walsh has a big ego, it's because he's not good enough to displace others.

I'm going to need clear cut examples and discussion here, because if you think Voss hasn't been ****ing up the magnets and tactics in the 22, I don't know what you're doing with your time on this forum at this point.

It's worth looking at, and I believe he's gotten more minutes in the VFL at it than he has in training.

 

[Arr0w]

I'm going to need clear cut examples and discussion here, because if you think Voss hasn't been ****ing up the magnets and tactics in the 22, I don't know what you're doing with your time on this forum at this point.

It's worth looking at, and I believe he's gotten more minutes in the VFL at it than he has in training.

Jim, which starting or rotating mid do you see Kemp replacing a why?

Before you reply, we all acknowledge that Kemp has speed, but to play through the middle, there are a number of factors and traits required

As for playing in the middle at VFL level, it has been nothing more than trying to get him in the game, with next to no success

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Just listened to Cal Twomey on SEN this morning and he said the strong belief talking to clubs is the Tigers deciding between Lalor and FOS for pick 1

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I'm going to need clear cut examples and discussion here, because if you think Voss hasn't been ****ing up the magnets and tactics in the 22, I don't know what you're doing with your time on this forum at this point.

It's worth looking at, and I believe he's gotten more minutes in the VFL at it than he has in training.

Kemp is weak through the hips for a player of his size and fumbles/makes poor decisions under high pressure. For the very same reason he was dropped in the finals in 2023.

You've been pushing the same talking points for years now, including needing to drop/get rid of Newman despite him being clearly one of our best players the last few years.

But if you honestly believe the only reason Kemp isn't a starting midfielder at AFL level is because Voss is scared to shift the magnets then I have nothing else to add to the discussion.

 

[GoBlues!]

Is there a scenario where we'd use 38 to move up to #2?

• North haven't traded out
• Tigers don't take Lalor at #1
• North now choosing between Lalor or Tauru
• we offer 38 to get Lalor and North get to consider options at 3 with the option rinse repeat and step back to 4 for Tauru and collect a f3.

So effectively we get #2 by giving up picks 12, 14 and 38.

That fccks up our opportunity to get a KPD around the #38 mark that achieves what? A possibility of getting Lalor if Richmond pass on him, and we overlook Jagga, FOS or Draper.

How does this help Carlton?

 

[Jimmae]

Kemp is weak through the hips for a player of his size and fumbles/makes poor decisions under high pressure. For the very same reason he was dropped in the finals in 2023.

There's more examples of Kemp nailing such moments under pressure than they are mistakes. The Sydney gaffe was notable, but I'd love for you to show me an example that occurred any time after that.

You've been pushing the same talking points for years now, including needing to drop/get rid of Newman despite him being clearly one of our best players the last few years.

Newman went up a level, and you'll notice I've backed off. Silly me for thinking that a 29 year old player was playing at his limits already.

But if you honestly believe the only reason Kemp isn't a starting midfielder at AFL level is because Voss is scared to shift the magnets then I have nothing else to add to the discussion.

Scared? No, astoundingly myopic and arrogant.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

But if you honestly believe the only reason Kemp isn't a starting midfielder at AFL level is because Voss is scared to shift the magnets then I have nothing else to add to the discussion.

Scared? No, astoundingly myopic and arrogant.

My 2c - one of Voss biggest bloody weaknesses is exactly this. He doesn't rotate heavy load midfield jobs well at all. It's part of the damn injury issues. He's blinkered with players and the jobs he wants them to do. Thought that was something that was obvious and accepted.

Whether we all agree and get along on the changes and trials we would like to see / could be appropriate etc. That's always going to be discussed though. But they're different things...

 

[lopezz]

Lets just imagine for a minute we do take FOS... Who's supposedly very close mates with a certain H.Reid... Would this be the most hilariously strong midfield in history?

Kemp Weitering Boyd
Cowan ?KPD? Wilson
O.Hollands Cerra Walsh
O'Sullivan Mckay Fogarty
Motlop Curnow Moir
Dekoning Reid Walker

E.Hollands Silvagni Cottrell Lord

Is Cripps away that week? He'd prob get a game in there somewhere when fit

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

My 2c - one of Voss biggest bloody weaknesses is exactly this. He doesn't rotate heavy load midfield jobs well at all. It's part of the damn injury issues. He's blinkered with players and the jobs he wants them to do. Thought that was something that was obvious and accepted.

Whether we all agree and get along on the changes and trials we would like to see / could be appropriate etc. That's always going to be discussed though. But they're different things...

Cripps - Can't play another role
Cerra - Capable of playing half back and wing but not to a high standard
Hewett - Can't play another role
Walsh - Can play wing but is one of the best mids in the comp at his best.

That right there is the root cause of the rotation issues for our mids. Probably why we're targeting a dynamic mid who can push forward in this draft. Ben Campo is another we'll add who can really only excel as an inside mid. We lack flexibility in our midfield, something a team like Collingwood or Sydney do not.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Is Cripps away that week? He'd prob get a game in there somewhere when fit

Projecting into the future in that. Getting Harley Reid would be mission impossible next year or the year after with no 2025 FRP and Cody Walker in 2026.

 

[V_23]

we obviously traded for 3 for a good reason. what are you worried about

Not worried at all. Not sure how you got that from my post.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

How does this help Carlton?

Apparently it doesn't.

However if such a player became a generational talent p38 would be seen as a small price to have paid.

38 also fair chance to be traded out anyway if bids come (I hope it won't need to be)

 

[Coona Blues]

Kemp is weak through the hips for a player of his size and fumbles/makes poor decisions under high pressure. For the very same reason he was dropped in the finals in 2023.

You've been pushing the same talking points for years now, including needing to drop/get rid of Newman despite him being clearly one of our best players the last few years.

But if you honestly believe the only reason Kemp isn't a starting midfielder at AFL level is because Voss is scared to shift the magnets then I have nothing else to add to the discussion.

I disagree with you on this one.

I am not “adamant” Kemp would be a star mid, but strongly believe he has sufficient key traits to transfer to the middle. He is very good in traffic and has excellent hands in tight. Plenty of less likely players have made the successful transition to the midfield.

Weak through the hips is BS. Not having the body strength to compete with 200cm/100kg key forwards or resting rucks does not equate to “weak in the hips” for a mid.

Fumbles/:makes poor decisions under pressure? Again BS pressure in the middle does not equate to a tsunami of ball heading your way off the back of players up the ground applying little to no pressure, while you are the last line and a perceived failure produces opposition goals. Totally different pressure.

Voss afraid to shift the magnets? Not afraid, but absolutely Voss or other coaches see Kemp as the best option for 2nd tall defender given the list. He is regularly overfaced, has good defensive intent, but is more a ball player than a born defender. I still maintain his best use on our list is as the 3rd tall rebounding defender, but I absolutely believe he should be at least trialled in the engine room and/or on a wing for his sake and for that of the team.

 

[Arr0w]

Just listened to Cal Twomey on this morning and he said the strong belief talking to clubs is the Tigers deciding between Lalor and FOS for pick 1

Lalor would be a great outcome for our list