Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[HyphensBack]

I think you've got FOS and SL too high in possessions, both should be 7's. Draper should be a 10 in separation from contest or FOS and SL should be 7's, Langford should be lower again. Draper is the best tackler of the lot, should be a 9. Lalor's endurance should probably be a 7. Also what alternative position could Harvey Langford play?

I also don’t disagree on FOS and SL getting marked down on possessions-
Wondered whether FOS was just due to injuries/ return from injuries

I didn’t give Draper a 10 in separation from contests cause I felt at times he ran himself into trouble

Langford lower on separation from contests - happy to be challenged on this but I saw him being like Pendlebury - evasive on to his left - but if he was getting caught in possession then fair enough (have not seen as many games)

Lalor lower on endurance - that I can see - fair call

Draper tackling - I wondered whether that would translate into AFL due to his size?

 

[HyphensBack]

My recommended adjustments.

Can’t go wrong then - pick 3 could be an Austin master stroke

 

[Benaly28]

1 or 2 of Lalor, Smith, Draper, FOS

I'm okay with any of those being selected

I think that’s been the general consensus for weeks now.


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[Stickitupthem]

I watched nick d play juniors and you could tell he was very special enough said
Whilst I haven’t seen much of lalor I’d say his clearly 1 in rankings and will be a great footballer and I’d say ready to go in afl
followed by Draper who’s an excitement machine teams won’t have time to man up Charlie and harry when he darts out of the middle and kicks long

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Langford isn't quick over 20, but once in stride, most players don't get a hold of him and his evasiveness certainly helps in this area

Exceptional hands, vision, disposal, beast overhead and safe shot at goal

What's more impressive, he is already mature beyond his years, knowing his strengths / limitations and working well within his lane

Really is a Dawson clone, what's not to like about this kid

You answered that in your first sentence. Pretty much the same issue with all our mids.

 

[BlueNath]

We do, we just have:

• one that constantly pings his hamstring
• one that we've been trying to use as a key defender
• one that has 2 blokes hanging off him constantly while we gave an egotistical winger and a bloke with shot legs key midfield roles

And I feel like this whole 'striker mid' category is delusional groupthink that undervalues players who are capable of both accumulating and providing high impact disposal when the opportunity presents itself.

Need to be able to separate out when players are being restricted, and how they are working around that, and how the team can better work around that.

Are you calling Cerra a striker mid??? Because he is NOT. In fact, IMO I'd say he is not even an Engine mid. I'd class him as a defensive mid. But that may be by instruction as typically Carlton are a defense first midfield anyway.

Most coaching think tanks, in a perfect world, would say they want a core midfield mix that features each of the following 3:

Striker mid: TYPICALLY... offensive weapon (break through defensive walls), explosive, clean, attacking mentality, decisive, physical (bigger/stronger bodies), high impact, higher kick ratio, high I50 ratio, kick goals, get tired easier so rest forward or lower TOG. 20 disposals is typically all they need to have influence on the game.
Engine mid: TYPICALLY... endurance athletes (high TOG), creative, high IQ, agility and/or speed (but not explosive), good two-way runners (get back to defend and help with transition), high handball to kick ratio, moderate meters gained, less physical (usually lots of loose ball gets). 30 disposals is typical for a good game.
Defensive mid: TYPICALLY... many of the engine mid attributes (but with maybe slightly less skill), anchors the midfield, good size/strong, defensive mindset and positioning, high tackle count, balanced handball to kick ratio, disrupts oppo setups, clamps a player, blocks/creates space, usually around 15-20 disposals while disrupting the opposition is a great game.

When you dont have the mix of these players midfields can sometimes look out of balance or one-paced... Sound familiar?? Not having a Striker mid is exactly why we often get referred to as looking slow. If we injected Chad Warner into our midfeild tomorrow, the talk of us being one-paced would never be mentioned again.

Defensive and Engine mids are common commoditites. Striker mids are rare commodities!! Not every team has one, but everyone wants one (or two). In fact, when I think of guys like this only few really stand out to me... Petracca, Young, Reid, Warner, JHF, DeGoey, Heeney. Im sure Im forgetting a couple, but hopefully you can see how uncommon it is for teams to find/have such players/weapons.

Now consider the pointy end of this draft and I think you have 2 strike mids available... Lalor and FOS.

I am certainly not going to downplay the talent that is Jagga and Draper (that is suicide around here). But I think I know firmly what Austin and crew had in mind when going for pick 3

 

[Benaly28]

Pick one will be what will be whether that’s FOS or Lalor but the most interesting pick for us is what happens with pick 2 and who will hold it.If Tigers get it then both those players are gone.North keep it then they have a massive decision to make,Tauru or who?


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[CrippaTheGoat9]

Pick one will be what will be whether that’s FOS or Lalor but the most interesting pick for us is what happens with pick 2 and who will hold it.If Tigers get it then both those players are gone.North keep it then they have a massive decision to make,Tauru or who?


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They need key position players the Kanga and I feel they need to leave the draft with Armstrong or the Dees/Saints will snap him up.

But would Langford be in contention and complete their midfield if it’s not Tauru?

 

[BlueNath]

Pick one will be what will be whether that’s FOS or Lalor but the most interesting pick for us is what happens with pick 2 and who will hold it.If Tigers get it then both those players are gone.North keep it then they have a massive decision to make,Tauru or who?


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I feel like the Tigers and Melbourne are both boxing North in now... both are suggesting they may take him at 5 and 6. I think they know by boxing North in that everyone gets who they want.

And on a side note... I think people will totally get the Tauru decision at pick 2. Its overs, but it also makes so much sense for them. Its getting another mid that I think is the dumb decision for them. They love Tauru, so just go get your man and dont worry what others think/say

 

[BlueTongue]

NI'm going to need clear cut examples and discussion here, because if you think Voss hasn't been ****ing up the magnets and tactics in the 22, I don't know what you're doing with your time on this forum at this point.

It's worth looking at, and I believe he's gotten more minutes in the VFL at it than he has in training.

I see many attributes that suggest Kemp's natural position is forward.

• Tall enough to play 3rd tall
• Great Leap
• Great overhead mark and ball judgement
• Generally a Nice kicking action & set shot

Not sure I can name any attributes that make me think he can play as a mid.
Do you mind elaborating on why you think he should?

 

[Stefchook]

And on a side note... I think people will totally get the Tauru decision at pick 2. Its overs, but it also makes so much sense for them. Its getting another mid that I think is the dumb decision for them. They love Tauru, so just go get your man and dont worry what others think/say

It's what you can do when you've got lots of early picks. Actually pick the guy you want/need, even if it's not where he's ranked. It's what GWS have been doing for a while (e.g. Cadman, Ash, etc.).

 

[Pinnell]

This is my assessment based of the top 5 guys against attributes needed for a gun mid (worthy of a top 3 pick) and what we as the Blues need:

• O’Sullivan (FOS)
• Lalor
• Smith
• Langford
• Draper

Excludes Father Sons - Ashcroft (who apparantly is a cousin of mine - distant)

Keen to get thoughts on whether you would rank attributes differently and also what their defensive running ability is like as I haven’t seen enough game time to judge

FOS - if we pick him gee I hope this year (low possessions) was a blip due to injuries - I like his skills and his ability to play forward

Lalor - if he is available then grab him - 3rd tall forward who can play as impact midfielder why not. These guys are rare - they win Grand Finals

Smith & Draper - elite small mids but I think with Walsh, Cerra, OHollands, Binns - we got plenty of those types around the contests - Smith & Draper may be better but we need a POD

Langford - I like his elite disposal, that’s his POD to our midfielders, especially moving the ball on quickly with his left foot, he might not have burst speed but he has evasiveness and he has more endurance then Cripps. And he can play forward. If Lalor is gone I would take him next - he could be our next Wayne Johnston (left footed midfield/half forward)

	FOS	SL	JS	HL	SD
In the game - Possessions	8	8	10	9	9
Kicking to advantage	9	8	8	9	8
Handballs to advantage	8	8	8	8	8
Marking	8	9	7	8	7
Goals	8	8	7	8	7
Separation from contests - speed & evasion	8	8	9	8	9
Tackling	8	8	7	8	7
Defensive work
Play alt position	9	9	7	9	7
Endurance	9	8	9	9	9
Total	75	74	72	76	71

Jagga underrated here for play alt position - I reckon he’d be our best and most creative small forward if rested/played there

 

[Arr0w]

You answered that in your first sentence. Pretty much the same issue with all our mids.

Think people put way too much credence on pure speed, when footy traits are the number priority, IMHO

 

[AlecDuncan]

Are you calling Cerra a striker mid??? Because he is NOT. In fact, IMO I'd say he is not even an Engine mid. I'd class him as a defensive mid. But that may be by instruction as typically Carlton are a defense first midfield anyway.

Cerra is the one you want to have the ball in hand going inside 50.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Not sure I can name any attributes that make me think he can play as a mid.
Do you mind elaborating on why you think he should?

I've seen it on a wing at VFL level. Blitzed the Lions there one game.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Think people put way too much credence on pure speed, when footy traits are the number priority, IMHO

In saying that, Max Holmes would suit our midfield perfectly with his speed.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Think people put way too much credence on pure speed, when footy traits are the number priority, IMHO

Kennedy had footy traits, why was he playing forward for us and then moved on at the end of year?

 

[BlueTongue]

I've seen it on a wing at VFL level. Blitzed the Lions there one game.

Blitzed how?
Speed?
2-way Running Capacity/Tank?
General Smarts and positioning?
They are all good things to have but do you think he could play there permanently?

 

[GoBlues!]

	FOS	SL	JS	HL	SD
In the game - Possessions	8	8	10	9	9
Kicking to advantage	9	8	8	9	8
Handballs to advantage	8	8	8	8	8
Marking	8	9	7	8	7
Goals	8	8	7	8	7
Separation from contests - speed & evasion	8	8	9	8	9
Tackling	8	8	7	8	7
Defensive work
Play alt position	9	9	7	9	7
Endurance	9	8	9	9	9
Total	75	74	72	76	71

Fair effort trying to rate the players against a range of attributes / criteria.

The thing with Multi Criteria Assessment, is whether all the attributes are equally important. A player might score very low in the first criteria (possessions) and do well in the other 9 criteria and get a high total score. (I’m thinking someone like Cuners).

Some criteria like effective possessions are more important, and should be weighted higher.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Blitzed how?
Speed?
2-way Running Capacity/Tank?
General Smarts and positioning?
They are all good things to have but do you think he could play there permanently?

I wonder which of his 2 vfl games against the Lions it was? The game where he got 13 possessions or the one he got 7?

 

[AT97]

Langford isn't quick over 20, but once in stride, most players don't get a hold of him and his evasiveness certainly helps in this area

Exceptional hands, vision, disposal, beast overhead and safe shot at goal

What's more impressive, he is already mature beyond his years, knowing his strengths / limitations and working well within his lane

Really is a Dawson clone, what's not to like about this kid

Looks to have an healthy dose of aggression at ball and opponent from the vision, also.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

You don't rate Smith?

It's not case of not rating him, but we have Lord & Ben Campo coming through who are also essentially pure inside mids who, like Smith, don't/can't really play anywhere else. The question then becomes what does he offer that we're not going to get from Cripps, Hewett, Cerra, Lord & E.Hollands will provide??? Find me another balanced mid with speed who can run both ways and genuinely launch the ball to go with Walsh. It would certainly make us less predictable.

If we draft FOS, I'll support him wholeheartedly. I'll still fair dinkum SPEW UP if we do. He's so high risk IMO. Low possession count, injuries, seen him get caught htb a few times trying to do too much.

I'd MUCH rather go with the safer option in Smith (if he's already gone, then Draper). Smith is in the Naicos / Butters mold. Accumulates and creates. Slippery. Very low risk. Yes, his ceiling may not be as high as FOS, but he could play 12 - 15 next year and make an immediate impact. FOS will take at least a year, maybe more.

If you had the draft hand Richmond have, then you'd FOR SURE take the chance on FOS. We only have one shot at it, and I'd take the sure thing.

Vote SMITH #2025

I saw this kind of post regarding Dow. I don't buy the argument that Smith will have a consistent impact week-in-week-out from Round 1. As good as Walsh was in his first year, it took until his 3rd year before he genuinely impacted games on a regular basis. I'd start FOS off HB like Norf did with Sheezel and the Pies did with N.Daicos.

1. Smith
2. Langford
3. Smith

O'Brien

I'm different to most on here as I view Langford as a potentially similar player to Charlie Constable. That is great against other juniors, but may struggle when he gets into open company.

I have a similar feeling. A bit of “guilt” as there is no need to knock the kid, I just feel Draper or Smith are more suited to our list. I don’t see FOS as a genuine coalface mid, more the utility type bobbing up in front or behind the ball.

O’Sullivan’s peers love him, which leads me to question my assessment, but I have real doubts around work rate commitment.

He doesn't need to be a pure coalface inside mid. That's what we have Cripps, Hewett, Cerra, E.Hollands, Lord and the soon to be drafted BC are there for. I want a more balanced mid with speed that runs both ways to compliment Walsh.

Dow 2.0 BUST!!!!

Or so I've heard...

I'd suggest you might need to get your ears syringed . My research leads me to believe Draper's professionalism and leadership is not dissimilar to Walsh's.

 

[V_23]

My updated preferences, not that anyone cares

1. O’Sullivan
2. Draper
3. Lalor
4. Smith
5. Langford

 

[macky99]

Kennedy had footy traits, why was he playing forward for us and then moved on at the end of year?

Kennedy was always a 4-5 mid fielder in most teams, regardless of who we pick with 3, we need Walsh & Cerra back to their best, whilst Draper & Smith look a better fit for us, Arrow is absolutely spot on having pure football talent & smarts cannot be under estimated, Crippa & Pendlebury just elite & smart pure footballers as examples.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Kennedy was always a 4-5 mid fielder in most teams, regardless of who we pick with 3, we need Walsh & Cerra back to their best, whilst Draper & Smith look a better fit for us, Arrow is absolutely spot on having pure football talent & smarts cannot be under estimated, Crippa & Pendlebury just elite & smart pure footballers as examples.

If you put a midfield of 4 Cripps together it would be a disaster. That's the case being made here.