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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Analysis 2024 National Draft
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The Return of the Paf
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Gee this is thread is hard going. It's like a game of catch between four butter-fingered people standing no more than five feet away from each other.
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Judd too dropped slightly due to injury concerns around his shoulders. Only fell to 3 but should've been unanimous no.1.
Just curious.
Which "midfielders", in the last 10 years of the draft, that were drafted inside the top 5, were "busts" in your view?
Please don't include 2017 coz that was just an absolute shocker of a decision (in hindsight) by SOS to take Dow, instead of LDU & Cerra. That's 1. I'll give you that 1.
Any others?
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Anytime I am worried about who we might pick I am reassured by reminding myself that I have absolutely 0 say and control over the decision. And ultimately the weeks of debate we've had over it is for nothing other than harmless fun. I doubt Austin reads our opinions when doing his draft board.
No point worrying about what you can't control. Just get on board with whoever we pick and hope it works out. And if it doesn't at least you will have a good I told you so story. I desperately wanted Cotchin over Kreuzer in 07 and in 06 wanted Houli at our 2nd pick despite recruiters letting him to 42 (although I also loved Dan Connors that year).
In the meantime, though let the debate continue.
No point worrying about what you can't control. Just get on board with whoever we pick and hope it works out. And if it doesn't at least you will have a good I told you so story. I desperately wanted Cotchin over Kreuzer in 07 and in 06 wanted Houli at our 2nd pick despite recruiters letting him to 42 (although I also loved Dan Connors that year).
In the meantime, though let the debate continue.
(2016) Andrew McGrath, Will Setterfield (2017) Paddy Dow (2019) Dylan Stephens (2020) Will Phillips
Approximately ~20% of the top 5 midfielders are busts across that time.
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Draper reminds me of Dylan Shiel who was an AA burst mid at GWS. Never a great kick and then hasn't been able to get a clear run at it at *
Smith reminds me of Cotchin. Evasive and a neat kick but not penetrating with his disposal. Cotchin up close is fairly lightly build as well.
Andrew McGrath was always a midfielder who has fallen out of that positions at AFL level because he was a bust.
Andrew McGrath
2016 AFL Draft prospects: Andrew McGrath
Find out everything you need to know about the 2016 draft prospects before they get drafted, with our AFL Draft profiles: Andrew McGrath.
www.zerohanger.com
Position: Midfielder
"Fast, tough and powerful midfielder..."
I thought Ben Ainsworth was the same, but my recollection must have failed me, looking back on old profiles he was always considered a forward.
So you've asked me a question but I'm not allowed to include what you've arbitrarily deemed irrelevant? That's not how you ask questions.
But anyway like you mention the first one would be Dow. I'd rate anyone picked in the top 5 who isn't an above average player a bust.
So to specify midfielders as you have also requested, other than Dow.
I'd say Setterfield, Stephens, Phillips, Tsatsas, Campbell
I won't include last years draft as its too soon to tell but that means 6 out of 28 midfields I would classify as busts in 9 years.
So just under a 1 in 5 chance of drafting a midfield bust in the top 5.
Also "bust" may seem harsh as many if not all of those players are perfectly serviceable. But you don't want to draft serviceable in the top 5, you want to draft A graders, you want to draft stars. Anything less is not acceptable.
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Decent comparison with Draper, might be a tad quicker than Shiel
For me, Smith has Butters traits, but I also see Hannaford with similar traits and can't believe how underrated he is with all rankings
Bletch
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AFL DRAFT: Full list of nominees as of Nov 7
Tom Clurey, Jack Hayes and Kaine Baldwin are just three of many delisted players to nominate for November's Telstra AFL Draft
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Ainsworth was pretty much a small forward all through his juniors but played midfield back end of the season and did really well. Helped him get drafted at 3 but never looked a mid at AFL level.Andrew McGrath was always a midfielder who has fallen out of that positions at AFL level because he was a bust.
Andrew McGrath
2016 AFL Draft prospects: Andrew McGrath
Find out everything you need to know about the 2016 draft prospects before they get drafted, with our AFL Draft profiles: Andrew McGrath.
Position: Midfielder
"Fast, tough and powerful midfielder..."
I thought Ben Ainsworth was the same, but my recollection must have failed me, looking back on old profiles he was always considered a forward.
McGrath started the year at half back and played there for Vic Metro and also progressed to being a fulltime mid throughout the year.
McCluggage dominated as a mid throughout the whole season. Averaged 29 touches and 2 goals a game at NAB league level but fell out of favour for McGrath late.
Good example of clubs overthinking it. McCluggage should always have been pick 1.
Andrew McGrath was always a midfielder who has fallen out of that positions at AFL level because he was a bust.
Andrew McGrath
2016 AFL Draft prospects: Andrew McGrath
Find out everything you need to know about the 2016 draft prospects before they get drafted, with our AFL Draft profiles: Andrew McGrath.
Position: Midfielder
"Fast, tough and powerful midfielder..."
I thought Ben Ainsworth was the same, but my recollection must have failed me, looking back on old profiles he was always considered a forward.
TAC Cup finals: Five things we learnt from the weekend’s preliminary finals
The top-10 prospect with Fyfe-like traits
www.foxsports.com.au
McGrath was a defender in the Champs and was named at HB in the 2016 AA team and then moved into the Middle at some stages of the TAC finals
"While McGrath has starred for the Dragons as a midfielder, he looms as an exciting option across halfback for AFL clubs. It’s a role McGrath played superbly for Vic Metro during this year’s national championships, averaging 24 disposals at 81 per cent efficiency, 284 metres gained (ranked No. 1 among defenders) and 14 uncontested possessions (ranked No. 1 among defenders)."
Bletch
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Akuei the only of our delisted players to nominate. 14 Carlton VFL players also nominated (including McMahon).AFL DRAFT: Full list of nominees as of Nov 7
Tom Clurey, Jack Hayes and Kaine Baldwin are just three of many delisted players to nominate for November's Telstra AFL Draft
Not sure "busts" is apt for all of those.
In 2016, other than the order of the top 5, who else that followed would you regard as better?
I did ask not to mention 2017.
Stephens? Yep. Give that. Terrible choice given what was available - Young, Serong, T Green
Phillips? Not much after him either except Holmes at 20.
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As Pablito has said, these are all clearly busts in the context of Top 5 pick, some are serviceable players if you drafted them in the teens or later, but none lived up to their draft position at all. I haven't even included Tsatas or Campbell as I think its too early to tell (and my dynasty fantasy team still holds out hope for Tsatas).
I'd be very happy with either although i have Smith just ahead of Draper.
I just cannot wait to welcome another elite midfield prospect to the Carlton Football Club.
I genuinely believe we have the chance of landing an All-Australian level, Brownlow level player at this selection.
I will be beaming whatever the result on the 20th
I genuinely believe we have the chance of landing an All-Australian level, Brownlow level player at this selection.
I will be beaming whatever the result on the 20th
I’m leaning toward Smith. But dollars to doughnuts we will pick FOS if he’s available at 3. All the talk is pointed in that direction. We can only pray that last year was an anomaly. My misgivings is that we are not a lucky team. Still, if it is FOS, I’ll be supporting him. No time for melts or having a crack at a kid.
I see a bit of Zorko in Draper. The way he surges the ball forward with pace yet still has a strong defensive mindset.
Smith i see as similar to N.Daicos albeit not as polished with disposal atm but with better defensive traits.
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3 more like Sellwood? Dyson Heppell dropped to 8 because of his groins, Lever dropped to 14 due to an ACL, Sympkin dropped to 12 due to a broken leg.
Brian Lake nearly went undrafted because he had sleep apnea and woke up during interviews giving inappropriate answers.
Plenty of examples where good players dropped down the order when they had things happen beyond their control in their draft year.
I didn't deem the Dow situation as irrelevant. In fact quite the opposite. I conceded that point voluntarily, as I agree, he was a bust.
You still included him in your reply though, which indicates to me, that you (and others) are genuinely concerned that we will get this decision wrong like we did with Dow. I completely 100% understand that. It wasn't that long ago that it happened and we were the ones, with pick 3, that stuffed it up. Not any other club (who made the decisions on the other players you stated as being busts). It was us. That hurt. Bad. Could have had LDU or Cerra (who we have now) but we chose Dow. I get that people are scared we will do it again but please understand that the decision to take Dow was made by SOS & co at the time.
As I've stated previously, SOS can't pick a mid to save his life.
He's not making the decision now and we have far better people involved now, who will make the right call.
I really do get that some are "gun shy" with this decision, but if you allow yourself to believe that 2024 and the people we have now are a completely different scenario to previously, then hopefully that will minimise any stress.
Me, I'm going to trust in Austin & co (which includes GW) that they will knock this decision out of the park.
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Short kicks it’s not loopy.
Longer he does give it a bit more air but when he’s kicking in a stop play situation (mark/Fk) it’s not an issue at all and mechanically looks good.
Kicking at pace is his issue. Can end up kicking 35m airy balls, likely trying to kick for distance without a sound base under him. If he steadies before he kicks his long kicking goes from a 5 to an 8/10 for me.
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