Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

He's ny second choice behind Jagga.

Could the injury be a red herring promoted to keep him in Adelaide. Maybe.

The new rumours of Adelaide wanting to trade up to 2 means he's probably fine.

Reckon Draper does everything Smith does but with more intensity and attacking intent.

Quicker off the mark too.

 

[Pablito]

3 more like Sellwood? Dyson Heppell dropped to 8 because of his groins, Lever dropped to 14 due to an ACL, Sympkin dropped to 12 due to a broken leg.

Brian Lake nearly went undrafted because he had sleep apnea and woke up during interviews giving inappropriate answers.

Plenty of examples where good players dropped down the order when they had things happen beyond their control in their draft year.

Disregarding Lake, that is ****ing hilarious if true.

The others though, they all dropped outside the top 5? E.g. taken at a much less valuable pick, hence the discount to take on the risk is much larger. So not that relevant for me.

And none of these players I'd rate as out and out stars. At certain points in time they were stars. But there are only 2 AA selections between 3 players across all 3 careers.

All are great first round selections. But would I want to take Heppel and Simpkin in the top 5? Probably not. Lever yeh I would.

So my point still stands, especially at our selection. I wouldn't risk pick 3 on a player who regressed in his u18 year compared to his previous year.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Quality response from a quality poster. Keep up the great posts.

Name 3 more like Selwood. He's the exception not the rule.

If you looks through my post history I've gone into it further.

Misses targets by foot constantly.
Can't break or stick tackles.
Struggles to find the footy.
Boots it long into turnover territory when he gets overwhelmed which is way too often.

He's got bust written all over him for me.

Luke Parker won the Stingrays b & f as a bottom ager. Didn't have as good a season the following year (including a broken jaw) and went at #40.

 

[Coops93]

So my point still stands, especially at our selection. I wouldn't risk pick 3 on a player who regressed in his u18 year compared to his previous year.

Depends how you look at it. Is it a regression or is it recovering/playing injured - they aren't the same.

Which output is closer to the real player? Even with injuries he still had impact, so I'd suggest the higher watermark is closer to reality, but it doesn't eliminate the questions.

The fact he's still in the no.1 pick conversation despite a down year should underline his talent.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Luke Parker won the Stingrays b & f as a bottom ager. Didn't have as good a season the following year (including a broken jaw) and went at #40.

Wasn't Samo rated as the #1 kid as a 16yo?

 

[Pablito]

Luke Parker won the Stingrays b & f as a bottom ager. Didn't have as good a season the following year (including a broken jaw) and went at #40.

Yep that's a good one.

Now the other side of the coin and I won't ask you to name them.
How many players were rated in the top echelon of the draft in their u17 year, had a down year the next and went on to have average or below average careers?

It would be too many to count. Hence the inherent risk.

 

[Pablito]

Wasn't Samo rated as the #1 kid as a 16yo?

Jack Martin another..

There would be too many to list.

 

[Pablito]

Depends how you look at it. Is it a regression or is it recovering/playing injured - they aren't the same.

Which output is closer to the real player? Even with injuries he still had impact, so I'd suggest the higher watermark is closer to reality, but it doesn't eliminate the questions.

The fact he's still in the no.1 pick conversation despite a down year should underline his talent.

True, which is why im so baffled. I still feel like everyone who rates him as a top 3 pick is taking crazy pills. Including the journos.

Especially compared to other top 5 prospects who don't have his same glaring form issues.

 

[ianh]

Jagga underrated here for play alt position - I reckon he’d be our best and most creative small forward if rested/played there

Agree with that. Could also be damaging off a back flank until he matures physically, but small forward would be a better fit for our needs.

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Reckon Draper does everything Smith does but with more intensity and attacking intent.

Quicker off the mark too.

Alot stronger/ ready to go through the body as well imo
Yeah, his disposal ect might be a bit iffy at times, but imo he definitely has a strong point of difference we are looking for in the midfield

 

[Coops93]

Jack Martin another..

There would be too many to list.

Jack Martin didn't drop due to any injury, he was taken in a mini draft or something weird.

His talent was undeniable at the Suns but I've always put it down to the Suns throwing him around to every position needed that week. He never developed in a role because he was so rounded he could plug any gap that came up and, and the Suns used him that way. He was never a full time forward until he came to us - he was mostly played behind the ball if anything.

 

[RPCB]

3 more like Sellwood? Dyson Heppell dropped to 8 because of his groins, Lever dropped to 14 due to an ACL, Sympkin dropped to 12 due to a broken leg.

Brian Lake nearly went undrafted because he had sleep apnea and woke up during interviews giving inappropriate answers.

Plenty of examples where good players dropped down the order when they had things happen beyond their control in their draft year.

Nah, that was just Brian Lake’s character.

 

[GoBlues!]

Judd too dropped slightly due to injury concerns around his shoulders. Only fell to 3 but should've been unanimous no.1.

I don't think Hawthorn has any regrets selecting Luke Hodge at #1:

• 4× AFL premiership player: 2008, 2013–2015
• 3× AFL premiership captain: 2013–2015
• 2× Norm Smith Medal: 2008, 2014
• 3× All-Australian team: 2005, 2008, 2010 (c)
• Hawthorn captain: 2011–2016
• 2× Peter Crimmins Medal: 2005, 2010
• AFLPA best captain award: 2014
• AFLPA Madden Medal: 2019

Spare a thought for Fremantle - wtf were they thinking trading pick 1 to Hawthorn for Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin.

 

[Pablito]

Jack Martin didn't drop due to any injury, he was taken in a mini draft or something weird.

His talent was undeniable at the Suns but I've always put it down to the Suns throwing him around to every position needed that week. He never developed in a role because he was so rounded he could plug any gap that came up and, and the Suns used him that way. He was never a full time forward until he came to us - he was mostly played behind the ball if anything.

Disagree, you can make that argument for the majority of draft "failures" then.

So he didn't drop? Meaning a highly touted junior who didn't show his best form in his u18 year was taken as a priority by GC based on earlier form, didn't become a star in the league.

Kinda proves my point.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Wasn't Samo rated as the #1 kid as a 16yo?

He did make the A.A. team (on the bench ) in 2015. I've just had a look at that team, apart from Weitering it is terrible. The attack was lead by Francis and Schache in the year that Harry and Charlie were drafted. Here is the team;

O'Kearney, K.Collins, Hipwood
J.Berry, Weitering, Bonner
Keays, Hopper, K. Lovell
Parish, Francis, Balic
Ainsworth, Schache, Gresham,
Nguon, Mathieson, Partington,
I/C, Allison, Belling, Parfitt, SPS

Good effort by SOS to pick the eyes out of the draft that year. It's a pity he remembered SPS the following.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Disagree, you can make that argument for the majority of draft "failures" then.

So he didn't drop? Meaning a highly touted junior who didn't show his best form in his u18 year was taken as a priority by GC based on earlier form, didn't become a star in the league.

Kinda proves my point.

Jack Martins career proves your point about whether FOS is likely to have a good career?

 

[Pablito]

Jack Martins career proves your point about whether FOS is likely to have a good career?

It's an example of a junior career that somewhat mirrors FOS junior career in terms of form line.

Martin gets picked up as you mention in the mini draft (basically a free top 2 selection a year early) based on his excellent under-age form.

Doesn't reclaim that form as an 18 year old.

Has an OK career, not the superstar expected.

FOS will be picked in the top 5 based on under-age form.

So yes Martin is just one example of the type of career career I expect FOS to have in my uneducated opinion. Great potential ultimately unfulfilled.

As mentioned though there's a chance he ends up playing like Hugh Mcluggae and Isaac Heeney his ceiling. But based on the aforementioned reasons. I don't expect him to get near that level. The likelihood is low (but not impossible).

 

[bradfisher14]

Reckon Draper does everything Smith does but with more intensity and attacking intent.

Quicker off the mark too.

I think Jagga is just as fast as Draper, but tends to think through the contest before using his speed. Hence his superior accumulation and disposal efficiency. This is why I have Jagga ahead of Draper. Draper on the other hand is all gas no brakes. It is absolutely breathtaking when it works. Full credit to him, he's been effective at it in every level of footy he's played so far, but I do think he'll need to adjust his game at AFL level and there's a risk that he won't be as damaging.

 

[BigFrizz36]

It's an example of a junior career that somewhat mirrors FOS junior career in terms of form line.

Martin gets picked up as you mention in the mini draft (basically a free top 2 selection a year early) based on his excellent under-age form.

Doesn't reclaim that form as an 18 year old.

Has an OK career, not the superstar expected.

FOS will be picked in the top 5 based on under-age form.

So yes Martin is just one example of the type of career career I expect FOS to have in my uneducated opinion. Great potential ultimately unfulfilled.

As mentioned though there's a chance he ends up playing like Hugh Mcluggae and Isaac Heeney his ceiling. But based in the aforementioned reasons. I don't expect him to get near that level. The likelihood is low (but not impossible).

But your original argument was that FOS shouldn't be a top 10 selection because his top age junior year was not as solid as his bottom age year (without being prepared to concede that injuries may have been a factor).

Jack Martin was deemed as a great prospective talent all the way through his junior career and didn't drop off in his top year hence why he was taken #1 in that mini draft. That's almost the opposite of your original synopsis. It didn't help that he hurt his knee in his first AFL game and missed 11 weeks or so. It was almost a portent of doom.

You've left yourself plenty of wriggle room with your "could be Heeney or Mccluggage but probably won't be" commentary.

I have no dog in this fight at all, and have no real preference. I just find it amusing that you alone believe that a player that every phantom draft (and I dare say that every AFL recruiter) has in the top 5 is not worthy of a pick in the top 10.

 

[SurreyBlue]

I'm exactly the same.
It's the volume of quality football. Marks the ball like vintage Fyfe.
The delivery into fwd 50.
Picture Curnow and Harry on the end of those. Wow.

These highlights packages are mint.

Reminds me of Bont. in the way he plays but not moves, if that makes sense. Big call, I know.

 

[Pablito]

But your original argument was that FOS shouldn't be a top 10 selection because his top age junior year was not as solid as his bottom age year (without being prepared to concede that injuries may have been a factor).

Jack Martin was deemed as a great prospective talent all the way through his junior career and didn't drop off in his top year hence why he was taken #1 in that mini draft. That's almost the opposite of your original synopsis. It didn't help that he hurt his knee in his first AFL game and missed 11 weeks or so. It was almost a portent of doom.

You've left yourself plenty of wriggle room with your "could be Heeney or Mccluggage but probably won't be" commentary.

I have no dog in this fight at all, and have no real preference. I just find it amusing that you alone believe that a player that every phantom draft (and I dare say that every AFL recruiter) has in the top 5 is not worthy of a pick in the top 10.

Martin was taken a year earlier based on his under-age form. He wasn't taken based on his u18 form.

So he was drafted, played WAFL/juniors, then moved to the Suns.

And I can only find 4 games worth of stats in the WAFL that year, and one from the year before. Guess which one was his best game.

I can't find the stats online, but anecdotally he was rate as a generational prospect in his under-age years.

Wasn't rated as highly based on memory the year after.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Ainsworth was pretty much a small forward all through his juniors but played midfield back end of the season and did really well. Helped him get drafted at 3 but never looked a mid at AFL level.

McGrath started the year at half back and played there for Vic Metro and also progressed to being a fulltime mid throughout the year.

McCluggage dominated as a mid throughout the whole season. Averaged 29 touches and 2 goals a game at NAB league level but fell out of favour for McGrath late.

Good example of clubs overthinking it. McCluggage should always have been pick 1.

Averaged 29 and 2 goals a game and Essendon took McGrath in front of him?

That’s all time fk up


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Sector 7G]

Averaged 29 and 2 goals a game and Essendon took McGrath in front of him?

That’s all time fk up


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Robert Shaws gift to *. Convinced Dodoro to pick him off the back of school footy connection.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Averaged 29 and 2 goals a game and Essendon took McGrath in front of him?

That’s all time fk up


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Not taki

Averaged 29 and 2 goals a game and Essendon took McGrath in front of him?

That’s all time fk up


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I clearly recall all and sundry stating that Mccluggage was clearly the best player. You've got to love *'s determination to remain mediocre .

 

[The Return of the Paf]

FOS has a ceiling of Isaac Heeney or Hugh Mcluggage.

He also has major bust potential.

I had ranked him around the 10 mark in this draft but I'm moving him further down now.

Players that don't have great u18 years but great u17 years generally don't translate into stars in the league.

I'm off him completely for our pick. He's the only one I'd avoid like the plague at 3.

Do they each take the top bunk in tandem?