Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[ctwenty1]

They could say the same of us.

On SM-F946B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I havent been coping

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Sorry but I 100% disagree. Langford or FOS aren't "slow" Win the ball is the key

Cerra & Walsh and even Cripps can burst form the middle. Then give mid minutes to Motlop, Durdin, Williams etc to freshen up. Boyd Wilosn Saad Ollie etc running off HB. Win the ball and use it properly and leg speed is largely irrelevant

If we take Langford we'll likely be happy with the player we get but rueing that our team is still getting burnt to smithereens in transition and incapable of defending post stoppage. I'm firmly against the selection but if it's how it happens so be it.

 

[ESKIE]

They could say the same of us.

On SM-F946B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Really ?

 

[JJBagger]

If we take Langford we'll likely be happy with the player we get but rueing that our team is still getting burnt to smithereens in transition and incapable of defending post stoppage. I'm firmly against the selection but if it's how it happens so be it.

We defended stoppage fine last year with the same group we had this year. Effort, game plan and IQ comes into it at some point

 

[Matty411]

What did he say?

He was trying to say FOS is in the conversation for #1 but mispoke then quickly corrected himself after he said that "Finn is in the c***... conversation for pick 1".

 

[marcmurphy3]

So just in the last couple of days ITKs have reported:

• 1 Jagga 2 FOS
• 1 FOS 2 Draper 3 Jagga
• 1 FOS 2 Langford 3 Jagga

Definitely tough to get a read of. I don't doubt people are getting intel, but obviously can differ depending on the source.

 

[Bletch]

So just in the last couple of days ITKs have reported:

• 1 Jagga 2 FOS
• 1 FOS 2 Draper 3 Jagga
• 1 FOS 2 Langford 3 Jagga

Definitely tough to get a read of. I don't doubt people are getting intel, but obviously can differ depending on the source.

And I'm sorta glad it's that way. As much as I'd like to know now who our 1,2,3 are, it's a good thing that Curly Jr is playing his cards close to his chest.

 

[Matty411]

Watch this ball use. Not slow either

Tell you what. Not many weaknesses to his game - maybe the least question marks of anyone in the draft, even considering Jagga and Ashcroft. Wouldn't be unhappy if we pick him at all. Looks bust proof.

Worry about his overuse of the left but boy is it damaging - would walk in as the second-best kick inside 50 (besides Charlie who is ridiculous when on).

 

[Bletch]

Tell you what. Not many weaknesses to his game - maybe the least question marks of anyone in the draft, even considering Jagga and Ashcroft. Wouldn't be unhappy if we pick him at all. Looks bust proof.

Worry about his overuse of the left but boy is it damaging - would walk in as the second-best kick inside 50 (besides Charlie who is ridiculous when on).

Think it might be more about what he does when he doesn't have the ball that may be the issue with Harvey. And take this with a grain of salt, as I haven't watched anywhere near enough this year to make a considered judgment. But what I did see of him this year left me non-plussed - lacking defensively, no run/chase, lacking in second efforts. Highlight package looks great, but don't think it's the full story. Have him behind the others in the group we're looking at personally, but geez, he knows how to lower the eyes and hit a target.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I really like Langford as a player on his own, but when you stack up our midfield mix I think it would be an absolute disaster to take him over any of Draper, Smith, FOS or Lalor. We just got rid of 3 decent players on our list due to their poor running capabilities, replacing them with a player who's just extremely similar in that regard would be insanity imo. Not to mention Austin and Lloyd have already stated the club believes there's a need for speed in our midfield mix.

Cripps - Slow
Walsh - Above Average
Cerra - Average
Hewett - Slow
Langford - Slow
Lord - Average
B.Campo - Average
E.Hollands - Slow

If we were Essendon, Geelong or Collingwood I'd be all over Langford. But for our mix I think he'd be a poor selection at 3. It's just far too one paced.

I've preferred other players for us, but I've come around to pick Draper as best for our midfield.

Apart from attack, speed really helps if the player has a defensive mindset - that is put pressure on their midfield quickly

 

[GoBlues!]

Yeah, but using that logic pretty much nobody would bid. The benefit to the bidding club wherever the bid lands is usually pretty marginal, even for top end picks.

I think it comes more down to the philosophy of club and how firmly they believe clubs should pay fair value. There generally seems to be less care around this past pick 20 or so as whether a bid comes at 30 or 40 for Ben is really insignificant in the scheme of "fairness". Not the same as letting Levi Ashcroft drift down the order. Also, whether the potential bidding club wants to play nice because they have their own academy/fs picks coming through can also factor.

SOS clearly has a stronger philosophical view then most around clubs playing fair value, hence his past bidding. His club shares that view. Probably why he is seen as one of the most likely bidders (as opposed to because he wants to spite Carlton).

Agree.

If for some reason the Saints don't bid, I can't see other teams like GWS (#37) and Bulldogs (#35) being that motivated to bid. Their picks are just behind our pick 38, so in terms of fair value its not far off.

 

[RPCB]

So just in the last couple of days ITKs have reported:

• 1 Jagga 2 FOS
• 1 FOS 2 Draper 3 Jagga
• 1 FOS 2 Langford 3 Jagga

Definitely tough to get a read of. I don't doubt people are getting intel, but obviously can differ depending on the source.

I doubt ITK’s have any idea what will happen. It’s not like reporting on contract extensions or which player might come to us in the trade period. The Richmond and Norf list managers are most likely still undecided.

 

[BlueNath]

I doubt ITK’s have any idea what will happen. It’s not like reporting on contract extensions or which player might come to us in the trade period. The Richmond and Norf list managers are most likely still undecided.

Still undecided! I really wouldn't know, but my assumption would be 1 week out that you have a pretty clear priority list. I think clubs may still be dotting i's and crossing t's, but surely that is just a validation process now?

I think moreso the situation is the draft is super even and unlike in previous years there is not a clear consensus. Therefore, more than ever, clubs have to keep things close to their chest. It is why so many mock drafts are coming up with different outcomes... the ITK's are forced to guess

 

[GT619]

I don't think we are looking seriously at Draper. Talk seems to be between FOS, Langord and Smith as the names we are now focussed on

In that order

 

[GoBlues!]

I've preferred other players for us, but I've come around to pick Draper as best for our midfield.

Apart from attack, speed really help if the player has a defensive mindset - that is put pressure on their midfield quickly

Okay JD but apart from:
- being SA’s Under 16 captain in 2022
- taking out the state Under 18 MVP in 2023
- going on to captain South Adelaide’s SANFL Under 18 premiership
- being awarded the AFL life members scholarship
- being one of only two players to make the All Australian U18 team in both 2023 and 2024
- having more senior experience than any top draft prospect in 2024,

...what has Draper done.

 

[ianh]

Most of the 17 other clubs won’t be in a position to bid on Ben because they don’t have the picks in the range required or will use up picks to match bids on their own f/s and academy players.

1. Adelaide won’t - second pick is #64.
2. Brisbane won’t - all picks to match bids.
3. Collingwood - first pick is 52.
4. Essendon won’t - picks needed for Kako
5. Fremantle - possibly with #30?
6. Geelong’s first pick is #45
7. GCS first pick is #39
8. GWS with #37 doesn’t achieve anything
9. Hawks possibly with #33
10. Melbourne wouldn’t use #9 to bid
11. NM second pick is #62 won’t bid.
12. Port possibly with #29.
13. Richmond’s unlikely with last pick 24
14. St Kilda most likely with #32
15. Sydney unlikely with #22
16. WCE unlikely with #26
17. WB with #35 doesn’t achieve much.

I think there are around four or so teams in that range that could bid on Ben - including the Saints (most likely), Port, Freo or Hawks.

Good analysis and I think we'd match on any of those 4 because I think Ben is value at any of those picks even with the questions on his kicking and also because you don't want the look of "abandoning" him unless the bid comes in clearly early and/or endangers our chances of getting another pick in around the range where we might expect a decent KPD option to still be around. But with the ability to swap out pick 38 whilst on the clock and swap back in with another pick around there, as long as Austin has done the work to set up such an option I would expect we would match anywhere a bid was realistically a chance to come.

 

[Coops93]

If we take Langford we'll likely be happy with the player we get but rueing that our team is still getting burnt to smithereens in transition and incapable of defending post stoppage. I'm firmly against the selection but if it's how it happens so be it.

The thing is, transition play isn't always about who's the fastest sprinter but rather who's the fastest across the length of the field. Langford was one of the top performers in the 2km time trial, and his running capacity is elite for his class. His 20m sprint is lower, but when it comes to the transition game and broader running capacity he'll be a positive contributor to it.

Most of the game isn't played in an all out sprint. In fact very little of it is.

 

[GoBlues!]

I don't think we are looking seriously at Draper. Talk seems to be between FOS, Langord and Smith as the names we are now focussed on

I defer to your experience and connections on these matters Soap.

But if we are looking to make step changes and introduce players with break away speed and pace to complement our slowish midfield group, then I think FOS and Draper are the standouts.

 

[bradfisher14]

Smith
FOS
Draper
Lalor
Langford

 

[Coops93]

Most of the 17 other clubs won’t be in a position to bid on Ben because they don’t have the picks in the range required or will use up picks to match bids on their own f/s and academy players.

1. Adelaide won’t - second pick is #64.
2. Brisbane won’t - all picks to match bids.
3. Collingwood - first pick is 52.
4. Essendon won’t - picks needed for Kako
5. Fremantle - possibly with #30?
6. Geelong’s first pick is #45
7. GCS first pick is #39
8. GWS with #37 doesn’t achieve anything
9. Hawks possibly with #33
10. Melbourne wouldn’t use #9 to bid
11. NM second pick is #62 won’t bid.
12. Port possibly with #29.
13. Richmond’s unlikely with last pick 24
14. St Kilda most likely with #32
15. Sydney unlikely with #22
16. WCE unlikely with #26
17. WB with #35 doesn’t achieve much.

I think there are around four or so teams in that range that could bid on Ben - including the Saints (most likely), Port, Freo or Hawks.

I'm not sure dismissing WB & GWS just because their picks are close and don't "achieve" anything is a good way about it. What if they have him as the 30th best player in the draft, why would the dogs not then bid on him at 35? Same with 37? What if what they're trying to achieve is drafting a kid they rate highly? A long shot sure but if by some odd chance we don't match they get someone at 35 or 37 they rate inside the top 30?

 

[BigFrizz36]

Good analysis and I think we'd match on any of those 4 because I think Ben is value at any of those picks even with the questions on his kicking and also because you don't want the look of "abandoning" him unless the bid comes in clearly early and/or endangers our chances of getting another pick in around the range where we might expect a decent KPD option to still be around. But with the ability to swap out pick 38 whilst on the clock and swap back in with another pick around there, as long as Austin has done the work to set up such an option I would expect we would match anywhere a bid was realistically a chance to come.

The other thing with a bid on Ben is that I would hope that we have told clubs that if they put an early bid on Ben that we don't match then they would need two list spots open as it would be incumbent on them to take Lucas later on.

It would be poor form for a club to split twins just to try and one up us. Surely if someone takes one they have to take both. That migh knock a few clubs out that might otherwise gave been sniffing around.

 

[AT97]

This is 100 percent spot on. Our midfield consists of Cripps ,Hewett, Walsh and Cerra. None are elite ball users. Cerra is the best of that lot. None are penetrating kicks. Langford offers us a POD and is versatile. Can go forward or back.

Gotta love a penetrating and precise left foot kick

 

[BlueNath]

The thing is, transition play isn't always about who's the fastest sprinter but rather who's the fastest across the length of the field. Langford was one of the top performers in the 2km time trial, and his running capacity is elite for his class. His 20m sprint is lower, but when it comes to the transition game and broader running capacity he'll be a positive contributor to it.

Most of the game isn't played in an all out sprint. In fact very little of it is.

Unless you are Papley. He always seems to be sprinting. In fact, even once the goal is kicked and play is dead, I think he actually goes even faster. Weird fella

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Not Carlton related but ..

The Crows interviewed Lalor again today.

Have a feeling if they swap with North he’s their target (assuming he doesn’t go #1).

 

[Jimmae]

Safe to say everyone in clubland is trying to get one over everyone else right now in order to shake out a favourable outcome, and the media are running in circles because they're avoiding doing any list analysis.

I doubt any of the ITKs are right, and I honestly still think we'll have plans in place to trade down too.

There is a clear Top Tier consensus in Lalor, FOS, Draper, Langford, Smith.

Smillie is in that tier, as is Ashcroft (though not available to us). Hotton probably would have been too (and still can be).