Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[BlueNath]

I defer to your experience and connections on these matters Soap.

But if we are looking to make step changes and introduce players with break away speed and pace to complement our slowish midfield group, then I think FOS and Draper are the standouts.

I tend to agree. There are plenty of ways to try and fill voids in your list. But when the game more than ever is moving towards chaos and looking for ways to breakthrough defenses, surely offensive-minded guys with explosiveness are what every team is wanting. We have such an opportunity to grab an elite kid who fills this need. I think Langford is exceptional! But I just think FOS or Draper (or Lalor if he was to slip) is moreso what we want and need?

 

[JuddgementDay]

Okay JD but apart from:
- being SA’s Under 16 captain in 2022
- taking out the state Under 18 MVP in 2023
- going on to captain South Adelaide’s SANFL Under 18 premiership
- being awarded the AFL life members scholarship
- being one of only two players to make the All Australian U18 team in both 2023 and 2024
- having more senior experience than any top draft prospect in 2024,

...what has Draper done.

What a spud!

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Safe to say everyone in clubland is trying to get one over everyone else right now in order to shake out a favourable outcome, and the media are running in circles because they're avoiding doing any list analysis.

I doubt any of the ITKs are right, and I honestly still think we'll have plans in place to trade down too.


Smillie is in that tier, as is Ashcroft (though not available to us). Hotton probably would have been too (and still can be).

This would be crazy!

 

[BlueNath]

Not Carlton related but ..

The Crows interviewed Lalor again today.

Have a feeling if they swap with North he’s their target (assuming he doesn’t go #1).

Hey C4, can you elaborate what a deal might look like for North and Crows to make this happen. Crows have little outside of pick 4 and Roo's want to trade 2 to only move back a little but still get another pick in the first round. I just dont see how that happens?

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Hey C4, can you elaborate what a deal might look like for North and Crows to make this happen. Crows have little outside of pick 4 and Roo's want to trade 2 to only move back a little but still get another pick in the first round. I just dont see how that happens?

I’m not sure either to be honest. I suspect Adelaide may throw them a F2.

North may be happy with that as it’s just a small slide, as they’ve knocked back every other deal put to them (Richmond, St Kilda).

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Safe to say everyone in clubland is trying to get one over everyone else right now in order to shake out a favourable outcome, and the media are running in circles because they're avoiding doing any list analysis.

I doubt any of the ITKs are right, and I honestly still think we'll have plans in place to trade down too.


Smillie is in that tier, as is Ashcroft (though not available to us). Hotton probably would have been too (and still can be).

We are taking pick 3 to the draft we aren’t trading down!!!!

 

[BlueNath]

I’m not sure either to be honest. I suspect Adelaide may throw them a F2.

North may be happy with that as it’s just a small slide, as they’ve knocked back every other deal out to them (Richmond, St Kilda).

I guess so. It helps soften the backlash of taking Tauru at 2 also (even though I think it is still the right decision for them if no deal can be done)

 

[macky99]

Safe to say everyone in clubland is trying to get one over everyone else right now in order to shake out a favourable outcome, and the media are running in circles because they're avoiding doing any list analysis.

I doubt any of the ITKs are right, and I honestly still think we'll have plans in place to trade down too.


Smillie is in that tier, as is Ashcroft (though not available to us). Hotton probably would have been too (and still can be).

l believe there is zero chance we are trading down, it would make absolutely no sense when we had 12 & 14, we have traded up to get a quality player at 3, going to be 2-3 good options available.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Langford's one woods (kicking and forward marking) are very enticing...also very clean at ground level

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Safe to say everyone in clubland is trying to get one over everyone else right now in order to shake out a favourable outcome, and the media are running in circles because they're avoiding doing any list analysis.

I doubt any of the ITKs are right, and I honestly still think we'll have plans in place to trade down too.


Smillie is in that tier, as is Ashcroft (though not available to us). Hotton probably would have been too (and still can be).

We’re not trading down.

Unless we can perhaps work a deal to split pick 3 for picks 4, 5 and 6

 

[BlueNath]

Langford's one woods (kicking and forward marking) are very enticing...also very clean at ground level

Everyones one woods look amazing. Which one will we get though?

 

[Jimmae]

This would be crazy!

We are taking pick 3 to the draft we aren’t trading down!!!!

l believe there is zero chance we are trading down, it would make absolutely no sense when we had 12 & 14, we have traded up to get a quality player at 3, going to be 2-3 good options available.

We’re not trading down.

Unless we can perhaps work a deal to split pick 3 for picks 4, 5 and 6

Planning is not the same as doing.

Fact is we have 7 open list spots, and the way you all want to play it out, we're only filling out 4 between the national and rookie draft. I don't think we're going to leave 3 spots to DFA, rookie and SSP.

We've got something in mind, that's for sure.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Planning is not the same as doing.

Fact is we have 7 open list spots, and the way you all want to play it out, we're only filling out 4 between the national and rookie draft. I don't think we're going to leave 3 spots to DFA, rookie and SSP.

We've got something in mind, that's for sure.

I think this is an occams razor.

We traded up to get access to one of the very top liners in the draft.

 

[Coops93]

Potentially 5 provided Ben isn't bid on prior to 38, so only leaving 2.

I could quite easily see a scenario where 2 list spots are left open, one is filled by DFA, rookie or SSP & one left open for the mid-season draft.

Even if we do only go with 4 and have 3 vacant, again wouldn't be stunned with 2 others this off-season and 1 for the MSD.

 

[Jimmae]

I think this is an occams razor.

We traded up to get access to one of the very top liners in the draft.

And that doesn't mean we like all of the options for us, and that others aren't fixing for an opportunity. I hope we're playing the market to our advantage instead of clutching at pick 3.

That's why I'm happy to hear talk of Draper: it may have Adelaide offering a deal involving a future pick.

Potentially 5 provided Ben isn't bid on prior to 38, so only leaving 2.

Pick 3, Pick 38, Ben, Lucas... then who?

Not sure I'm a fan of the reaction and discussion from some responding when they're not even nailing the basic maths.

Even if we do only go with 4 and have 3 vacant, again wouldn't be stunned with 2 others this off-season and 1 for the MSD.

Tired of this 'let's leave a spot open for the MSD' crap... every year we have 2 season ending injuries and one or two players for 12-20 weeks.

Last season it was basically 3 season ending injuries save for us rolling the dice on Docherty. If we like a player, get them in for the pre-season and have a punt for 12 months, otherwise let injuries dictate some moves.

We have the option of short-term SSP selections, and that makes sense for a mature list.

 

[BlueNath]

How many more sleeps now? I have a bad feeling I will have to troll through another 240 pages of speculation before pick 3 is finally read out

 

[BlueNath]

And that doesn't mean we like all of the options for us, and that others aren't fixing for an opportunity. I hope we're playing the market to our advantage instead of clutching at pick 3.

That's why I'm happy to hear talk of Draper: it may have Adelaide offering a deal involving a future pick.


Pick 3, Pick 38, Ben, Lucas... then who?

Its true... nothing is off the table. But wow, what an opportunity we have at 3! Would have to be a special offer to trade out of it

 

[FlowersByIrene]

And that doesn't mean we like all of the options for us, and that others aren't fixing for an opportunity. I hope we're playing the market to our advantage instead of clutching at pick 3.

That's why I'm happy to hear talk of Draper: it may have Adelaide offering a deal involving a future pick.


Pick 3, Pick 38, Ben, Lucas... then who?

Not sure I'm a fan of the reaction and discussion from some responding when they're not even nailing the basic maths.

Speaking of maths, can you step out the 7 clear list spots for me? I thought we were tighter than that.

 

[GoBlues!]

I'm not sure dismissing WB & GWS just because their picks are close and don't "achieve" anything is a good way about it. What if they have him as the 30th best player in the draft, why would the dogs not then bid on him at 35? Same with 37? What if what they're trying to achieve is drafting a kid they rate highly? A long shot sure but if by some odd chance we don't match they get someone at 35 or 37 they rate inside the top 30?

Anythings possible Coops.

But at 35 and 37 the points we need to match at these picks are discounted by 20%, and we would easily match the bid with 63, 68 and 69 if needed. It's not to say they won't bid but if they did, we've got these later picks (including 72) and there's no way we wouldn't match a bid ay 35 or 37.

 

[Bletch]

And that doesn't mean we like all of the options for us, and that others aren't fixing for an opportunity. I hope we're playing the market to our advantage instead of clutching at pick 3.

That's why I'm happy to hear talk of Draper: it may have Adelaide offering a deal involving a future pick.


Pick 3, Pick 38, Ben, Lucas... then who?

Not sure I'm a fan of the reaction and discussion from some responding when they're not even nailing the basic maths.


Tired of this 'let's leave a spot open for the MSD' crap... every year we have 2 season ending injuries and one or two players for 12-20 weeks.

Last season it was basically 3 season ending injuries save for us rolling the dice on Docherty. If we like a player, get them in for the pre-season and have a punt for 12 months, otherwise let injuries dictate some moves.

We have the option of short-term SSP selections, and that makes sense for a mature list.

Just posted this in the LM thread:
Edit (correct link):

List Mgmt. - 2025 List Management 📃

Great posts and information are aggregated here

www.bigfooty.com

It now looks like we'll have 2 SSP spots open.

So 4 picks at draft. Maybe one rookie, and 2 x SSP.

 

[BlueTongue]

Everyones one woods look amazing. Which one will we get though?

 

[Jimmae]

Speaking of maths, can you step out the 7 clear list spots for me? I thought we were tighter than that.

We were at 43 on the senior and rookie lists combined, 2 on the cat B in the wake of the MSD. We sent 10 out the door, one of them cat B (Akuei). That's 34 + 1 from a maximum of 42 + 2, subject to season-ending injuries opening up list spots.

We've brought in one senior player (Haynes), and one cat B (Duffy), and while we've elevated Boyd, that doesn't change the 42 max for senior & rookies, so all up we're currently at 35 + 2, giving us 7 free spots, only one of which has to be a rookie.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Personally I can't get past his ball use. It is phenomenal and is what we desperately need. Everytime i watch him I see a mix between Bont & Pendles. Calm, great ball use and just smart

He could play mid, fwd, wing or HB in his first year

IMO I think he will be the best player to come out of the draft

Absolutely agree. Your info and what Cal Twomey has said makes me very pleased.

 

[bradfisher14]

Tired of this 'let's leave a spot open for the MSD' crap... every year we have 2 season ending injuries and one or two players for 12-20 weeks.

Agree with this point. Especially now that we've traded/cut some of our depth we need to replace it as best we can.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

We were at 43 on the senior and rookie lists combined, 2 on the cat B in the wake of the MSD. We sent 10 out the door, one of them cat B (Akuei). That's 34 + 1 from a maximum of 42 + 2, subject to season-ending injuries opening up list spots.

We've brought in one senior player (Haynes), and one cat B (Duffy), and while we've elevated Boyd, that doesn't change the 42 max for senior & rookies, so all up we're currently at 35 + 2, giving us 7 free spots, only one of which has to be a rookie.

Just doing some finger maths, the 10 who went where: David Cuningham, Caleb Marchbank, Jack Martin, Matt Owies, Jack Carroll, Matt Carroll, Sam Durdin, Dom Akuei, Alex Mirkov

That's 9 by my count? So we have 6 spots, which aligns with 2 SSP signings, as Bletch has identified we must be targeting with 2 train on players and either 3 selections in the draft + Lucas in the rookie draft or 4 selections at the draft and no rookie, meaning we won't be splitting Pick #3?