Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It's not me that has blinkers on. I have no opinion at all and will trust whoever Austin selects and wish him nothing but the best.

Is it possible that you have a serious case of "reverse blinkers "?

I have nothing against any of the top 5 players. I just have an opinion when it comes to list needs, Langford unfortunately fits them the least out of the top group of kids despite potentially being the best of the lot.

 

[Stickitupthem]

They’ll offer us Pick 4, F2 and an agreement to stay out of the way when it comes to Betts’ F/S kids

No deal

 

[BigFrizz36]

Not sure why Dow's game didn't stack up at AFL level. Could be a number of reasons.

Also not sure if he played any games against mature aged opposition in his under age years, but that could be 1 of them, if he didn't.
It was easier for him to stand out more at that level, but when his game got to the AFL, it just didn't have the same impact.

Pretty sure he only played against same age/size etc.
I am sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

Imo, the kids that have played against men (VFL/SANFL/WAFL etc) and found a reasonable level of success with their "game" are better at adapting and being more successful, at AFL level.

The only ones we're looking at that I know of, that have played in the SANFL, VFL etc are Draper and Smith.

Out of those 2 for mine, but what do I know? I would wager it's less than the LM team



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Finn O'sullivan played a reserves games for the Tigers. Had 13 touches but 6 of those were score involvements including 2 goals of his own.

Therein lies the conundrum for me. He doesn't get it a huge amount but his touches seem to turn into gold.

 

[BigFrizz36]

I have nothing against any of the top 5 players. I just have an opinion when it comes to list needs, Langford unfortunately fits them the least out of the top group of kids despite potentially being the best of the lot.

That's the thing. That's your opinion. I respect you having that opinion. I also respect others who are of the belief that Langford might work for us .

It's just that the "why get rid of Carroll and Kennedy to draft Langford" line does you no favours in my humble opinion.

 

[Bale Dup]

Didn't know that about FOS but even on those stats it's fine. If he didn't have any impact would be a different story.
I'm ok with him also and I think that's who we really want. Just think he might be gone by our pick.
Good thing is that there is a very strong chance we will get 1 of them.

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[JustOneTime]

Hope we go for some speed in Draper. I get the decision making and elite kicking skills of other top 5 players like FoS might equate to speed and preferred over a player who is simply fast but that only counts when ball is in hand and we have possession.

We have three key weaknesses to solve in 2025, and one of them is the midfield 'without the ball' is very slow. Draper could help address this weakness, even immediately. FoS would address inside 50s which is nice but not as important as our defensive transition by our midfielders. We need to address this or we have to fight in shootouts with even the lowest ranked teams.

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

Looks like we have a fight on our hands. Crows sound like they know Draper will be gone at #4. Crows trading for Norths pick #2 now looking highly possible

 

[Red Bull]

View attachment 2165297

Looks like we have a fight on our hands. Crows sound like they know Draper will be gone at #4. Crows trading for Norths pick #2 now looking highly possible

Fancy having to settle for Lalor or O’Sullivan then if the crows trade up for Draper
Austin … you bloody beauty

 

[BigFrizz36]

No deal

If we actually didn't want Draper you'd do that. A future 2nd to trade back if Ben had a bid on him plus another future 2nd for pick 38 would put us in a prime position to trade back for our pick of the KPD's.

Crows would have to be pretty silly to trade with us though. Just the fact that we were prepared to would be a pretty fair indication that we didn’t have our heart set on Draper.

 

[Pinnell]

He had acceleration for days. Burst speed as they say. But flaws were more obvious in hindsight.

Draper same flaws

 

[Pinnell]

View attachment 2165297

Looks like we have a fight on our hands. Crows sound like they know Draper will be gone at #4. Crows trading for Norths pick #2 now looking highly possible

If crows move up they want Jagga

 

[TENACIOUS]

Didn’t think so either, but his draft profile says that burst speed was his trademark. Also says he was in contention for the number one pick.

Paddy Dow Draft Profile

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"

central.rookieme.com

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"
Leagues: AFL U18 Championships, Coates Talent League Boys

OVERVIEW
Paddy Dow is one of if not the most all-round complete packages in the 2017 draft crop. Along with Andrew Brayshaw, Dow arguably has the most boxes ticked and it is no surprises why he is in contention for the number one pick. Dow is powerful, a classy mover, has great vision, loves the contested side of football and has a scoreboard impact, mostly setting up others when going inside 50. As a whole, Dow is a really good prospect who will flourish in the elite system.

We ruined Dow. He had it all and joined us at the wrong time in our journey.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Maybe the aspect of Dow that didn’t quite translate to AFL quality was actually above the shoulders?

Agree. The haircut was a hinderance from day one.

 

[Stickitupthem]

If we actually didn't want Draper you'd do that. A future 2nd to trade back if Ben had a bid on him plus another future 2nd for pick 38 would put us in a prime position to trade back for our pick of the KPD's.

Crows would have to be pretty silly to trade with us though. Just the fact that we were prepared to would be a pretty fair indication that we didn’t have our heart set on Draper.

We’d be happy with any of the top five I get it but I’d want more I think his special and they’d need to really twist our arm id look at next years first thrown in I know they wouldn’t do it but you never know how desperate they are consideting his their next Ricciuto

 

[BigFrizz36]

We ruined Dow. He had it all and joined us at the wrong time in our journey.

Not sure about that. His weaknesses were pretty obvious from the outset, poor field kick, drifted out of games, poor defensively etc. He had Cripps to model his game but as time went on he didn't seem to improve in any if his areas of weakness. Easy to blame the club but realistically the player has to carry the vast majority of the blame here.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

That's the thing. That's your opinion. I respect you having that opinion. I also respect others who are of the belief that Langford might work for us .

It's just that the "why get rid of Carroll and Kennedy to draft Langford" line does you no favours in my humble opinion.

The reason we got rid of both was due to the sameness they had to the rest of our midfield. Adding a similar type of player in Langford would fly in the face of the list moves we've made thus far.

He has more talent than either, but he still plays extremely similar to Kennedy and to a lesser extent Carroll. He's just projects as an overall upgrade on either.

 

[bradfisher14]

Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

simply doesn't have that dog in him. That's why he didn't make it. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Not sure about that. His weaknesses were pretty obvious from the outset, poor field kick, drifted out of games, poor defensively etc. He had Cripps to model his game but as time went on he didn't seem to improve in any if his areas of weakness. Easy to blame the club but realistically the player has to carry the vast majority of the blame here.

When you’ve been a professional footballer for five years and you still can’t handball with your left hand, it shows you don’t have a lot of interest in working on weaknesses.


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[NewDarkNavyBlues]

How do Adelaide facilitate a trade with North Melbourne for pick 2 though?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Draper same flaws

What are Drapers flaws that are the same as Dow?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

We ruined Dow. He had it all and joined us at the wrong time in our journey.

I don't think this is all together true.

1. I think he was overhyped as a junior in a really poor draft class. He only ever played against boys, and in a class of boys where there were limited standouts (the best two were Rayner and LDU, Rayner who took 5 years to impact at AFL level and LDU who is good but no superstar). Some of his draft vision shows his flaws in hindsight as he was often on his knees getting clearances and breaking tackles against small boys - but he never was able to do the same against men at AFL level.

2. I think his fitness was poor, while he had good speed he wasn't able to consistently put it together throughout an AFL game which meant he was poor defensively and inconsistent offensively.

3. His disposals was poor and he never worked hard enough on it, as set out below he never worked on handballing with his wrong hand and generally didn't improve his disposal. As said above, he didn't have that dog in him.

While he wasn't the right fit for us ultimately, he was given a LOT of AFL opportunity and I'll never say that that harms a player.

 

[Pinnell]

What are Drapers flaws that are the same as Dow?

Kicking.

 

[Benaly28]

These kids are 18 years old,they’ll all have flaws we’re not drafting kids who are perfect.




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[Rugged Blue Bagger]

Fancy having to settle for Lalor or O’Sullivan then if the crows trade up for Draper
Austin … you bloody beauty

Absolute WIN WIN isnt it

 

[BigFrizz36]

The reason we got rid of both was due to the sameness they had to the rest of our midfield. Adding a similar type of player in Langford would fly in the face of the list moves we've made thus far.

He has more talent than either, but he still plays extremely similar to Kennedy and to a lesser extent Carroll. He's just projects as an overall upgrade on either.

Actually the reason that we got rid of Carroll was more that we could
upgrade his role with Ben Campo and pick 3. Carroll had taken the Dow break in case of emergency role with his games mainly played when one of our main mids were injured (sub numerous times and subbed out for a lot of the rest). Carroll was at best an O.K. senior player but barring a major injury crisis was going to play reserves fir most of the season. In that case there is no point keeping him if other teams are offering him senior games.

The reason we moved Matt Kennedy on was that we think that Cooper Lord will come on and fill a similar role. I loved Matt but it was clear that the coaching panel thought that we couldn't play both him and George Hewett in the same midfield. Matt did a lot of things well, including playing tough but the roles that were designated for him (if he wasnt playing midfield) needed more pace than he had. Added to that he had some trade value (whilst Hewett didn't ) meant that Matt wasn't going to be comfortable playing half forward/sub/reserves.

So basically the changes to our midfield for 2025 will be out Carroll, Kennedy and some blokes who were always injured and in will be pick 3, Lord, Ben Campo, a hopefully non hamstrung Cerra, a Walsh with a good back, Doc, and maybe Billy Wilson.

We didn't get rid of Carroll and Kennedy to replace them with pick 3 (and as a result pick 3 must be quick). We replaced Carroll and Kennedy primarily to refresh our midfield because it didn't work last year more often than not under pressure. We replaced them because they were considered (rightly or wrongly) to be periphery midfielders and we are hoping that others can take their midfield minutes and improve us.

As a result pick 3 doesn't specifically have to be quick (although it wouldn't hurt). Quickness can be in the mind, in ball movement or in the legs. Plenty of options in what will be available for us. Trusting that Austin can ascertain which player adds to most to our midfield group in the long term.