Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Matty411]

Is "Sugar Hit" the "Vanilla" of 2024?

Stop making me hungry, y'all.

 

[bradfisher14]

I think I’ve finally come full circle on this.

At the beginning of the off season when we had a pick in the teens, I was happy because I liked a lot of the options in that range and thought that we couldn’t go wrong.

Now after taking the time to study the options available at pick 3, I’ve come to the conclusion that all of them will do well for us. Sure, I have my preferences and there are some players I have more questions marks on than others, but all of the guys we’ve discussed have their own unique elite qualities that they’ll bring to the club.

If I had to make the selection, the name I’m calling out is Jagga Smith. But I will also be happy with any of Draper, O’Sullivan, Langford, or Lalor. Happy to sit back and trust in the judgement of the club.

 

[marcmurphy3]

A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.

 

[Andypooh23]

If we are happy with any of the top 5 midfielders for our pick, then we could possibly do a deal with Richmond for 6 and one of their other 1st's. Especially if Adelaide move up to 2 to get Smith.

Draft could go:
1. Rich - Lalor
2. Bris - Ashcroft (NM Bid)
3. Adel - Smith (Traded from NM)
4. Rich - O'Sullivan (Traded from Carl)
5. NM - Tauru (Traded from Adel)
6. Mel - Langford
7. Carl - Draper (Traded from Rich)

Then we could get another Top 20 talent like Hotton, Berry, Whitlock etc.

Or we would just draft FOS.

Just a thought.

 

[Blue and Silver]

So given that we are almost certainly taking a mid at 3.

Everyone seems to think that if we do pick at 38 it will be tall.

Anyone think that we might go smaller?

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[Stamos]

A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.

Yeah, it doesn’t quite add up.
Different media have linked us to 4 different players in the last week, which makes sense, because we would be doing proper due diligence on the top 5.

What we know is that at pick 3, we will get at worst our 3rd choice.
Given the potential of different players going at 1 and 2, I’d be pretty surprised (and completely dismayed) if our actual order of preference leaked.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Charlie West @ 38?

Looked at Rookie Me and noticed several tall defenders projected late / rookie which hopefully means we take a highly rated one before the bid for Ben, or one late / rookie.
Can’t help but think (hope?) a highly rated player slides to our second pick.

 

[Smegger]

Smart move by North and the Crows if they do that trade, but still plenty of talent in the top 5 mids

Lalor, Smith, Draper, FOS, Langford

Is that random or order of preference Arr0w?

Asking because it happens to be my top 5 in order of preference.

 

[BlueNath]

If we are happy with any of the top 5 midfielders for our pick, then we could possibly do a deal with Richmond for 6 and one of their other 1st's. Especially if Adelaide move up to 2 to get Smith.

Draft could go:
1. Rich - Lalor
2. Bris - Ashcroft (NM Bid)
3. Adel - Smith (Traded from NM)
4. Rich - O'Sullivan (Traded from Carl)
5. NM - Tauru (Traded from Adel)
6. Mel - Langford
7. Carl - Draper (Traded from Rich)

Then we could get another Top 20 talent like Hotton, Berry, Whitlock etc.

Or we would just draft FOS.

Just a thought.

But what is the deal the Tigers are taking here? 3 (now 4) & 38 for 6 (now 7) & 24? If the Tigers are cold on trading 6 & 11 for 2 and F1/2 with North, then how is our offer appealing? And proposing the deal live on the night surely shows our hand... that we know they like FOS and we'd only be sliding because we think we still get our man 6/7. Therefore, Tigers say no, we take Draper anyway and they get FOS anyway (unless Dees would go FOS before Langford, which I doubt)

 

[BlueNath]

A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.

I dont think any club has leaked anything. The media and fans are just speculating based on tid bits from player managers, who clubs are interviewing, what they guess each clubs list needs are etc. etc.

And if a club has leaked anything, it is on purpose to try and shake some trees

 

[Arr0w]

Is that random or order of preference Arr0w?

Asking because it happens to be my top 5 in order of preference.

I will do a list of 30 or so, of how I rank this year, purely best available, not specifically us

Lalor
Langford
Jagga
Draper
FOS

But it's a narrow range and would be satisfied with any of them

 

[BlueNath]

Proof the media does not really know who we are targeting specifically with Jon Ralph's article today saying:

"Carlton believes there are five mids who all have a point of difference to their current midfield and will all serve their purpose equally well."

"By pick three two of them will be gone and they have will have the option to pick from three of them."

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Proof the media does not really know who we are targeting specifically with Jon Ralph's article today saying:

"Carlton believes there are five mids who all have a point of difference to their current midfield and will all serve their purpose equally well."

"By pick three two of them will be gone and they have will have the option to pick from three of them."

Absolutely ground breaking from Ralph!

 

[Bletch]

I believe there's a reasonably clear top 10. If anyone else comes into the first ~7 players picked, I'll be mildly surprised. Some may fall a little further back, but not much. Tauru if North don't pick him, Smillie if Richmond don't pick him with their second pick, and Lombard just because he's going to GC in any case, likewise the bid on Ashcroft might fall out of the top 3 or 4. Here's my ranking, for what it's worth, which isn't much!

Lalor
Smith
Ashcroft
O'Sullivan
Lombard
Draper
Langford
Tauru
Smillie
Reid

Most don't have Lombard in their top 5, but I think he's gonna be a star, and fully deserves to be in contention with the other top candidates. He's just fallen under the radar a bit for obvious reasons. There are others with pretensions of a top 10 pick - Allan, Armstrong, Travaglia, Kako, Hotton, Lindsay chief amongst them - any of these making top 10 wouldn't be a surprise, but I very much doubt any would be in the top ~7, whereas any of the 10 players listed above could be called out in the top 5 without causing too much of a stir.

What's particularly interesting about this year is that I very much doubt that every club has the same, or even similar ranking lists. Richmond probably have Lalor at the top, Adelaide maybe Draper, North Tauru, Carlton FOS. And particular club needs may arrange this group of 10 differently for each club. Such is the evenness of the group. I really don't think there's a huge gap between 1 and 10 on this list.

Unlike, for instance, last year, where Harley would have been at the top of everyone's list. And McKercher/Walter 2 and 3 on most.

It's been a while since we've had a year like this, and I'll be very interested over the next few days to see how it pans out.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

So you haven’t watched him live. All good

In person? Can't say I frequent over to SA to watch u18s games no.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Absolutely ground breaking from Ralph!

 

[katmanblue]

This draft is the most overrated in history.

At least we've moved on from "next year is a superdraft"

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[GoBlues!]

Okay. I have narrowed it down to:

Ashcroft
Smith
Lalor
Langford
FOS
Draper
Smillie

for our first selection. Back it in

Proof the media does not really know who we are targeting specifically with Jon Ralph's article today saying:

"Carlton believes there are five mids who all have a point of difference to their current midfield and will all serve their purpose equally well."

"By pick three two of them will be gone and they have will have the option to pick from three of them."

Ground breaking call from Ralphy.

At least Soapy named them…

 

[HereComesJuddy]

In person? Can't say I frequent over to SA to watch u18s games no.

So just YouTube highlights. Yeah they all look good don’t they

 

[The Blueseum]

So just YouTube highlights. Yeah they all look good don’t they

The videos I like are those that show every time the player touches the ball during a game, clangers and all.

There are heaps of those videos available for all the players mentioned in this thread.

Not just highlights.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Alot of choice. Definitely need another ruck/fwd to develop under tdk.

I think our list needs a genuine forward/ruck to develop as well, i think O’Keefe besides his disappointing hamstring injury has been developing well for such a young player, but he looks more of a promising ruckman who can rest forward…

 

[HyphensBack]

Wanted to take a different look at who from Top 4 mids based on what we have - assuming Lalor is gone



I am old school and the game may have passed me by - I work on the basis you can’t have 3 inside mids (accumulators) but need a mix ie 1+2+3 below (note DeKoning adds to this but Pitt doesn’t help)

In light of the fact we have the following in black where do the new recruits fit possibly - I know some would disagree with my assertions in black but let’s debate - we have until Wednesday


1) Inside Mids (accumulator)
Cripps (29) - this is his window, elite accumulator but poor in the other direction
- Smith - this is him in U18s but can he extract like that in AFL - can he play small forward initially for a few years and then take over from Cripps
- Langford - is he Cripps heir apparent and plays forward 50% game and 20-30% to cover Cripps - better disposal but can’t play both in middle??

2) Defensive Mids (wins own ball but locks down other mids)
Cerra (25)
Hewitt (28)
Lord (19)
Ben Camporeale - Is this where Ben would be seen - they say he is competitive and has defensive traits


3) Inside Out Mid (accumulator but good run both ways)
Walsh (24) - can play wing
- Draper - said to be good defensively, is this a fair assessment or is he inside only - but can he play small forward

3) Outside Mid (mainly receiver - good connector with forwards)
Docherty (31) - can play wing but not many years left
E Hollands (22) - can play half forward
FOS - is he more outside - definitely talked up for his connection and can play forward

Note I have assumed we picked up Ben Camporeale

Based on this I have no idea still

I think the club is choosing between FOS and Draper as they want run outside and in that case I would choose FOS as he has shown he can play forward as well

But that means he is fighting with Kemp, Moir, Williams and E Hollands and I rate them more likely to succeed then our current crop of small forwards



Me personally I prefer Smith or Langford, accumulators are less likely to be busts and Smith would be a better fit short term due to my perception he could play small forward (50%) and be a real contributor in a place of real need

As an ex accumulator who didn’t make it due to my disposal skills, long term I would pick Langford, I have fell in love with his ability to move it on quickly (we lack that) and to advantage of forwards (H & C would thrive)

 

[BlueTongue]

A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.

Maybe it's double blind and we dont want Jagga, we actually want FOS.
Or maybe even a triple blind because we aren't after either...