Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[marcmurphy3]

They are not guessing, it’s an informed opinion with the information they have that’s why Cal Twomeys track record is spot on because of the information he receives from club recruiters and managers.

Player managers would be very happy to tell Cal exactly whos showing the most interest in their clients. They have 0 incentive to keep anything to themselves.

 

[BlueNath]

Yeah but nobody is going to pay what it would take for them to slide to 4.

If they were going to take Tauru at 2 anyway the asking price would be cheaper as any picks they get to slide to 4 would be a bonus.

If their preference is FOS, however, theyd need a premium as theyd likely be sacrificing their first preference.

Exactly. The ideal situation for Roo's was to get another late first rounder in this years. But all indications are a deal cannot be done and they are stuck with pick 2, which means they take best available... FOS. I just know how much Roo's love Tauru. So I still think something could happen, even though it seem very unlikely. Maybe Im just secretly hoping for some early drafting drama

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Player managers would be very happy to tell Cal exactly whos showing the most interest in their clients. They have 0 incentive to keep anything to themselves.

Things become more clear the day/night before the draft.

 

[BlueNath]

They are not guessing, it’s an informed opinion with the information they have that’s why Cal Twomeys track record is spot on because of the information he receives from club recruiters and managers.

I think in previous years, yes! But this year just feels different. It is so even and surely there is some cat and mouse going on with what clubs are leaking. I think even Cal himself will be shocked if he gets the top 10 spot on. I guess we will find out in 24 hours

 

[carlton_99]

They probably should have but with higher bids its a bit more complicated. No guarantee the right deal would have been on offer for 9 on draft night. Doing the deal early opens up alot more flexibility and was the safer choice.

Will be interesting to see if we can find a way back into the 2nd round if an early bid comes

 

[Blue__Balls]

Other than those 4 picks in the 60s/70s I don't think we have anything to pair with 38 to move up. Future picks are pretty much locked as we traded our F1

We don't move up.

We wait.

If the bid comes unexpectedly early (ie. 25-30) we'd need to use 38 to match it. If the bid comes slightly early (ie. 32-37) we'll have another club lined up to swap 38 for a future pick (probably a second rounder from a contending side). Then we match with our late picks. We'd then go to work trying to buy back into the draft using our future picks (Brisbane's second, whatever we get for 38, our future third and fourth etc.).

Example would be 38 for Geelong's future second - they're rumoured to be trying to move up for Dodson (I think) so may find themselves short a few picks after trading up. Then look to trade the Brisbane future second for something in the 40s this year.

If there's no bid by 38 we're golden and can take whoever we like there.

 

[carlton_99]

We don't move up.

We wait.

If the bid comes unexpectedly early (ie. 25-30) we'd need to use 38 to match it. If the bid comes slightly early (ie. 32-37) we'll have another club lined up to swap 38 for a future pick (probably a second rounder from a contending side). Then we match with our late picks. We'd then go to work trying to buy back into the draft using our future picks (Brisbane's second, whatever we get for 38, our future third and fourth etc.).

Example would be 38 for Geelong's future second - they're rumoured to be trying to move up for Dodson (I think) so may find themselves short a few picks after trading up. Then look to trade the Brisbane future second for something in the 40s this year.

If there's no bid by 38 we're golden and can take whoever we like there.

I believe you need to have at least one pick in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th round of next year's draft if you have already traded your F1. So we could use whatever we get for 38 but that's pretty much it I think

 

[marcmurphy3]

Exactly. The ideal situation for Roo's was to get another late first rounder in this years. But all indications are a deal cannot be done and they are stuck with pick 2, which means they take best available... FOS. I just know how much Roo's love Tauru. So I still think something could happen, even though it seem very unlikely. Maybe Im just secretly hoping for some early drafting drama

I think the first big explosion could be if Crows pick Langford. That seems the first uncertain call.

Langford to Adelaide
Boom Crows board explodes
causing
Tauru to Melbourne
Boom Dees board explodes
causing
Draper to St Kilda
Boom Saints board explodes...with applause

 

[bigblueboy]

I was just about to post this.

Have Carlton been putting out Jagga Smith hints to stop the Crows from trading up for Draper?

Nope. We’ve been putting out those hints because they think he’s going to be the best talent available at our pick.

 

[JuddgementDay]

He’s actually enrolled in a course at Deakin University. You’re right he has also set up a training regime, recovery sessions at the beach, and prepared himself for weekend games this year.

He has pretty much simulated this year what most recruits need to contend with when they join a club. He’s way ahead of most recruits and will make the transition to a professional AFL environment quicker than most. In terms of preparation he’s also got quite a few role models to help him out also.

Great info - thanks for that

Jagga attitude is to be applauded, but I still think he has an advantage over other draftees as he has been training better/ more professional - However, other draftees they will all catch up at AFL level.

So the question still remain - how’s his upside compared to FOS & Draper?

 

[Michael Jezz]

Chopped and changed a number of times, but this how I rate top 7, which is influenced by players that can play more than one position

Lalor
Langford
FOS
Smith
Lombard
Ashcroft
Draper

Of those, think Jagga has the highest floor. Lalor, FOS, Draper higher ceilings

I think Hynes and Hannaford are criminally underrated, have both in my top 12

Tauru isn't in my top 12

I wasn't the only one who wanted Langford at pick 3

 

[GT619]

Something I just want to bring up about Jagga. Few times during the champs he was dealt with roughly by opponents and got a free kick.

Didn't stop him or slow him down.

Tough little bastard

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

strong character. energiser bunny

 

[GT619]

They are not guessing, it’s an informed opinion with the information they have that’s why Cal Twomeys track record is spot on because of the information he receives from club recruiters and managers.

plus riley beverage gets Intel from us and passes it too Cal and plays poker

 

[BlueNath]

Player managers would be very happy to tell Cal exactly whos showing the most interest in their clients. They have 0 incentive to keep anything to themselves.

100% agree!! But just play this out... Tigers tell the player and/or manager (lets say it is Lalor) that you are going #1, so be ready! This happens in previous years. So it becomes a lock. But then we get to Roos and it is immediately getting a bit more murky. But lets say the player and/or manager (FOS) say Roo's seemed super keen! Cal locks in FOS. Now it gets interesting...

Carlton have interviewed all top 5 prospects. Everyone of them has basically received the same process. Given the evenness of the top 5 and the want for Carlton to keep their list confidential, and the fact that 3-4 of those top 5 will still likely be there, even Carlton could not give a firm wink-wink nudge-nudge at this point. Nobody truly knows, because even Carlton cannot (in this year even draft especially) know for sure who will be there at 3. After this point, things just progressively get murkier.

It just feels like, given the even nature of this draft, that players and/or their managers are more in the dark than they have ever been. Clubs, players, managers etc. are making best guesses (rather than getting solid intel) as to what the other clubs priority list is moreso than ever before.

I hope Cals top 10 is correct. I just would not be putting my hard earned on it.

 

[BlueNath]

plus riley beverage gets Intel from us and passes it too Cal and plays poker

Are you suggesting Riley says "Hey Mick, who are you taking at 3" and Agresta says "Dont tell anyone mate, but its FOS, then Smith, then Draper"?

 

[Crippa#9]

Josh Bootsma

And apparently he’s not wearing any pants

 

[Crippa#9]

Something I just want to bring up about Jagga. Few times during the champs he was dealt with roughly by opponents and got a free kick.

Didn't stop him or slow him down.

Tough little bastard

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

and durable….which will obviously go to s*** once he becomes a Carlton player

 

[bigblueboy]

They are not guessing, it’s an informed opinion with the information they have that’s why Cal Twomeys track record is spot on because of the information he receives from club recruiters and managers.

This.

 

[gandaal]

Carlton picking Jagga would be Richmond's worst nightmare come round 1.

Jagga will probably get 25+ disposals against their scrub midfield, and Lalor will barely get 3 touches as a medium forward.

 

[El Topo]

Great info - thanks for that

Jagga attitude is to be applauded, but I still think he has an advantage over other draftees as he has been training better/ more professional - However, other draftees they will all catch up at AFL level.

So the question still remain - how’s his upside compared to FOS & Draper?

It's only an advantage as he's made it one - could easily have gone the other way, speaks to serious maturity for an 18YO

cf. Will Ashcroft

 

[marcmurphy3]

Carlton picking Jagga would be Richmond's worst nightmare come round 1.

Jagga will probably get 25+ disposals against their scrub midfield, and Lalor will barely get 3 touches as a medium forward.

I reckon they will get hammered for passing on Jagga at some stage next year. Even if Lalor does end up better, it wont be in 2025.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I’m still holding out hope for an Ashcroft, Marshall combination for Pick 3, and 38

 

[Blueboy23!]

Nope. We’ve been putting out those hints because they think he’s going to be the best talent available at our pick.

As per my previous post, Carlton will take Draper ahead of Smith.
If FOS is not available then it’s Draper.
Take with a grain of salt.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Nope. We’ve been putting out those hints because they think he’s going to be the best talent available at our pick.

Seems silly to tip your hand though, in case someone also wants him and can jump above you.

I do note that Carlton haven't said anything themselves in the media, but someone said something to Twomey.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here, since all things are still theoretically possible.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Just read this:

Isiah Winder Draft Profile

central.rookieme.com

Also gave me Yazz (as in C. Yarran) vibes did Isiah.... beautiful user of the ball.

Would love his as a rookie (after dd on knee!)