Trades 2024 Round 2 Trades

[blueiris]

Any news on how long Neale is out for?

Are you asking because of Lyons I think he stays he's only worry was Robertson who scored poorly

 

[HeavyPop]

Are you asking because of Lyons I think he stays he's only worry was Robertson who scored poorly

Nah, just with bye this week, wonder if I should do a sideways trade.

 

[jdwood]

I need his money for next weeks trades.

I reckon Fyfe matches Martin score wise and is way cheaper. Don't think Martin will be a top 6 defender with that horrible disposal he displayed in the backline.

Just to correct the record here, Martin is a brilliant disposer of the ball. Our best (alongside Merrett). That's why the move to defence has been made. He had an absolute stinker on the weekend which I'd be shocked if he ever repeated.

Not saying don't make your trades, but don't do it on the basis of Martin being a butcher.

 

[rocker_oz33]

I need money for next week to get Mass and I'll probably bring in a gun next week as I'll have over $200k in the kitty.

Go with ya gut or a ruby boo....b..



Massimo or McKerch next week for me next week another week of viewing .
Prob can't get both .

 

[Wellsy35]

Someone run some data on people that score 170 and their scores the following week...

Bont 182 followed by 122 and 164

Butters 184 followed by 104 105

Anderson dropped off huge last season going 144 189 then 88

Mills 214 followed by 139

Sicily 172 dnp then 136

Touk 167 then 100 but followed with 3 more 150+ over the next month or so

Rowell 170 then 141

Whitfield 170 then 115

Merrett last year two times 162 then 110, 168 then 136

Parish 190 then 95

Macrae 169 then 162


I’m not trying to knit pick because I’m sure there’s more bad examples but I’m just going off big games I specifically remember. One trend I do notice though, is if a player goes big, it can lead to them getting away from you real fast. Sure there is some bad examples like Noah Anderson last year but then there’s examples like Touk a few years ago or Butters last year. (Butters didn’t necessarily get away price wise for too long but I was never able to get him in). I lucked out and traded in Mills the week he scored 215, that trade which was against the grain as most were targeting Trac that week, is honestly one of the only reasons I finished top 100 that year.

These are all the 150+ scores I could find from last year, excluding key forwards who are naturally volatile:

L. Ryan - 171 followed by 122, and 168 followed by 102
Rowell - 165 followed by 87 by 159 by 101
Nank - 184 then 108
Marshall - 159 then 107
Laird - 156 then 125, followed by 151 then 129
LDU - 155 then 102
English - 156 then 99; 173 then 134; 163 then 112
Gawn - 215 then 120
Houston - 176 then 120
Neale - 176 then 76
Jackson - 173 then 124
Trac - 167 then 122; 159 then 95
Cripps - 153 then 83
Dunkley - 153 then 146 then 148 (!)
Jelly - 164 then 93
Stewart - 167 then 92; 152 then 101
Oliver - 156 then 121
Errol - 156 then 156 then 96; 164 then 124; 152 then 120
Dawson - 173 then 152 then 78
Libba - 159 then concussed on 20
Sicily - 172 then 136 (bye inbetween); 171 then 102; 166 then 96
Sinclair - 160 then 71
Darcy- 151 then 91
Brayshaw - 149 then 88

Breakdown: 5 examples of a player going 130+ after a 150 (13%), and 15 out of 38 examples of a player going 120+ (39%). 2 examples in the whole year of back-to-back 150s, 3-4 if you count Dunkley's crazy run.

So unlikely the little piglet backs it up, and travels away this week (albeit against North at Marvel). If you had him, you would at least think twice about giving him an armband this week based on those numbers. If you didn't, he has a BE of 63, so with a sub 120 will not get away from people soon as the 170 only sits in there for one price rise.

 

[St Steady]

think im gonna go

fischer to hogan purely for the cashgrab , i can cop the bye

still leaves me 130k in bank so i can do gibus to massimo next week if he has another good game

like the strategy of flipping a few early to cash up even though using up a few trades in past seasons we would say are unnecessary. we've got some solid rooks that may not needing flipping as much as prev yrs have as well

 

[Judd_Magic]

Just to correct the record here, Martin is a brilliant disposer of the ball. Our best (alongside Merrett). That's why the move to defence has been made. He had an absolute stinker on the weekend which I'd be shocked if he ever repeated.

Not saying don't make your trades, but don't do it on the basis of Martin being a butcher.

Not saying Martin is a butcher in general just in the backline he is.

 

[weltschmerz]

ZReid to Massimo is locked. I'm considering a cash grab trade and going either Clark or Lazzaro to TBerry.

 

[rocker_oz33]

Not saying Martin is a butcher in general just in the backline he is.

Very small sample size...

 

[Milanista28]

What is the formula for price rises, 0.5k for every point above break even? something like that isn't it?

 

[mochacinolatte]

Long post straight ahead

I think that Parker will be playing 70/30 fwd/mid. He looked shot at the back end of last year, turns 32 this year and will only attend CBAs and get mid time in case of emergency IMO.

Mills is mostly an outside mid, even if he goes in the guts he will be in more of a receiver role. IMO he might also rotate between wing/half back with Jordon given he is coming back from a busted shoulder. Won’t be back until byes.

Adams is the most likely out of the 3 to be an inside mid and I think worse case he will take some CPs from Heeney each game but not his overall possessions.

IMO Heeney will spend more time in the midfield as it frees up Warner and Gulden and makes our midfield more dynamic.

Last year, for reasons only known to Horse, Heeney was playing a defensive forward scrubber role which now looks to be covered by McInerney at ground level and Fox in the air. IMO he was also playing hurt last year.

We’ve seen this movie before with Horse. He made Ryan OKeefe a full time mid in his late 20s after spending most of his career at HF.

He only burnt people in 2020 because he broke a thumb in the preseason, then did his medial ligament. Even though he averaged 94 in the 6 games he played.

In 2021 he was flying until he broke his hand and came back way too early and lost his touch.
Even if Heeney does go back forward, we will average 95-100 like he has most of the last 7-8 years. Even as a forward he only needs 15-20 touches to ton up.

He won’t keep up this output but I think if he plays a full season he is still comfortably a top 6 forward.

TLDR version:
Bugger your bye structure, get him in your team now. If you don’t you have a Peeney chol

Blessed post or Cursed post. We will see.

 

[Dalsantowhatastar]

Usually don't like trading after round 1, but I can't watch Heeney pump out another 130 and I think he is now a must.

Young is going to be the one way to make way unfortunately. I liked his role, but I am worried he may still get moved back every now and then and I am more confident with Heeney. Also gives me some funds to get Billings.

Fisher gets one more week. Will bring in Massimo next week if he goes well again.

Young -> Heeney
Lazzaro -> Billings

 

[mochacinolatte]

What is the formula for price rises, 0.5k for every point above break even? something like that isn't it?

Magic number changes round by round. But generally its 0.3-0.4k per point. So 0.35k I would adopt.

 

[buttox]

Usually don't like trading after round 1, but I can't watch Heeney pump out another 130 and I think he is now a must.

Young is going to be the one way to make way unfortunately. I liked his role, but I am worried he may still get moved back every now and then and I am more confident with Heeney. Also gives me some funds to get Billings.

Fisher gets one more week. Will bring in Massimo next week if he goes well again.

Young -> Heeney
Lazzaro -> Billings

Idk about trading young when he plays my mob this weekend.

 

[iDon]

Heeney 24% teams, big loss not to have him?

 

[Wellsy35]

What is the formula for price rises, 0.5k for every point above break even? something like that isn't it?

It changes over time due to the magic number I believe. Using a couple of players it's currently around ~$462 per point over/under the BE. That will drop as the season keeps going.

 

[blueiris]

Nah, just with bye this week, wonder if I should do a sideways trade.

All good Lyons does look like a handy price structure I have him I think he can score big especially when the Lions Start winning

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Heeney 24% teams, big loss not to have him?

Bye in 4 weeks. Depends how your structure is looking for that week.

I think if you've got no other problems to fix and it's a simple sideways then not a bad idea. If you're burning 2-3 trades chasing points and missing cash cows then just accept you got ****ed by Horse (again) and move on.

 

[vanders]

I'm sort of hoping that Hustwaite gets named this week. Every year we always seem to get that one rookie where we all anticipate will be named for round 1 then for some reason they're not. Then they come in Round 2 and start killing it then everyone is scrambling to trade them in.

Why do you think S. Berry is a waste out of interest?

He may get a game this week but he's probably a sub risk

 

[toxic]

I need his money for next weeks trades.

I reckon Fyfe matches Martin score wise and is way cheaper. Don't think Martin will be a top 6 defender with that horrible disposal he displayed in the backline.

He's traditionally a pretty good DE.

I think he had one bad game (hoping as I'm keeping)

Can you find another cash grab?

 

[toxic]

Usually don't like trading after round 1, but I can't watch Heeney pump out another 130 and I think he is now a must.

Young is going to be the one way to make way unfortunately. I liked his role, but I am worried he may still get moved back every now and then and I am more confident with Heeney. Also gives me some funds to get Billings.

Fisher gets one more week. Will bring in Massimo next week if he goes well again.

Young -> Heeney
Lazzaro -> Billings

Madness

 

[SloppyJoe]

With only $10k in cash, I think the only way I can realistically get Billings in is to trade Zilliams?

Something like Zillams -> Hore/Dean, Lazzaro -> Billings.

View attachment 1931617

For me, getting Heeney would mean trading out Young or Newcombe.

By all accounts both Young and Newc got amongst it but their scores were let down by clangers, fumbles, errors etc that they won't be making every week.

Looking at trading Newc over Young if I go ahead with it. Is it crazy to get rid of Newc? Or the right move?

Or do I just fix some rooks (Gibcus, Lazzaro) and let Heeney do the reverse burnman job on me?

 

[St Steady]

half my side in pre season was norf players

now half my side is full of suns and giants with r3 coming up



FML

 

[gutsroy]

What is the formula for price rises, 0.5k for every point above break even? something like that isn't it?

Would say about $450/pt early doors, about 425 later on.
Just rough, though.

 

[AFDogs]

Just going to back Lazarro and Fisher in for another week and hope they both bounce back.