Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation (Rumours total 25, last 28th August)

[MrBarry]

Spot on, exactly why I've never complained about the Gibbs deal. Didn't pay off but I'd rather take that gamble to get that little further than sit on our hands and protect our precious draft picks.

Also Oliver is twice the player Gibbs was imo.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Spot on, exactly why I've never complained about the Gibbs deal. Didn't pay off but I'd rather take that gamble to get that little further than sit on our hands and protect our precious draft picks.

We knew that sitting still wasn't good enough.

The bigger problem was we misread entirely the profile of our list, and where it was heading. The biggest point that people tend to miss about that team was that Eddie went over the hill about three quarters through the season, and he was one of our bigger points of difference.

 

[MrBarry]

We knew that sitting still wasn't good enough.

The bigger problem was we misread entirely the profile of our list, and where it was heading. The biggest point that people tend to miss about that team was that Eddie went over the hill about three quarters through the season, and he was one of our bigger points of difference.

Agreed, Gibbs just wasn't a need at the time - Oliver definetly is now.

 

[Coopers]

You've misunderstood what I said.

Oliver for Berry and a future 1st round pick swap.

Oliver for Berry and the 2024 Melb 2nd (which we hold).

Berry's doing well again the last little bit. Has some good value, would rather trade Crouch if possible.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Agreed, Gibbs just wasn't a need at the time - Oliver definetly is now.

A team on the rise, with players coming into their peaks, with one fatal flaw, and we're talking about a low cost potential high pay off gamble, and people still aren't prepared to do it?

If it doesn't come off, are we really that much worse off? We don't have anyone worth paying now.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Berry's doing well again the last little bit. Has some good value, would rather trade Crouch if possible.

I'd rather buy a house with mouldy beans than money, but it's not probable.

 

[Coopers]

I tend to think people on this board tend to miss the point on taking risks.

Not every risk taken leads to a premiership, but premierships aren't generally won without risk.

You should judge decisions on the information available at the time, not what occurs after. A risk can not pan out, and yet still have been worth it

Carey didn't lead to a premiership, but we weren't wrong to pursue one.

Staying safe, not taking risk, is a low percentage of going bad, but also won't lead to the promised land.

Yes, but surely you can acheive everything you want with zero risk.

We just need an approprate plan, with appropriate resourcing and spot on estimation. We figure out everything now and commit to a guaranteed result so there is no risk.

Then we can also remove half the resourcing, at a later date for... reasons.




Trust me, I'm a professional middle manager.

 

[rabidcrow]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

B or D. I would rather pay his full salary and minimise the draft/player capital

In terms of draft - as long as our first round this year is off the table I would be pretty comfortable


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Crow till I die]

B or D. I would rather pay his full salary and minimise the draft/player capital

In terms of draft - as long as our first round this year is off the table I would be pretty comfortable


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

As long as its not this years 1st which has to be for a draper etc (tope end young mid), then ok. F1 and they pay a portion of his contract

 

[chazwazza]

I tend to think people on this board tend to miss the point on taking risks.

Not every risk taken leads to a premiership, but premierships aren't generally won without risk.

You should judge decisions on the information available at the time, not what occurs after. A risk can not pan out, and yet still have been worth it

Carey didn't lead to a premiership, but we weren't wrong to pursue one.

Staying safe, not taking risk, is a low percentage of going bad, but also won't lead to the promised land.

This is a very good point. The thing I would add is, in a general sense, at what stage are you in a good position to take a risk, security wise, money wise etc etc. In a footy context, which fits in well with the Carey example, where are you at on the premiership clock to take this risk, what’s your salary cap like and draft picks?
Will you sell the farm for it?
Port have done well in this area while struggling off field for money, they’ve taken calculated risks and some have paid off very well.

 

[DukeX]

I'd take the punt on Clarry at the Crows in a heartbeat, assuming the trade value is right.
The only way Melbourne will be willing to let him go would be if they've given up on him, which would mean his trade value is low. Realistically, a prime performing Oliver would be untouchable from Melbourne's point of view, ie definitely worth more than 2 firsts. If Melbourne think they can get him back the that point themselves, they wouldn't give him up anyway. If they don't, and want his contract off the books, they know that they will have to sweeten the deal. We could take on the entire contract, considering we seem to be struggling to reach the 95% salary cap floor, which could net us a decent pick in the process (ie a F1, which we could use to get another pick in this year, or bundle up with our F1 to have a crack at Sharp next year). We could restructure and front end the contract for the first 2 years (say $1.4m), making it cheaper for the last 4 years (900k), giving us options to go after other FAs/re-sign our own.
Yes, he's got his issues. Stengle had issues when he was with us (to the point that everyone said we couldn't possibly keep him). He's since gone to Geelong, become an AA and a premiership player, and looks like one of the top small forwards in the league now. A fresh start for Clarry could do the same (albeit he's a bit older). Stengle had Betts to steer him straight. Oliver would have Burgess, who he has a great relationship with, and who he trusts his body with (one of his big gripes with Melbourne). His contract would be on par, maybe even 'cheap' by year 3, even more so if he recaptures his best form, and if he does, it catapults us into contention immediately. If he doesn't, we're no worse off than we are now, considering some of the spuds that still get a game for us. We can offset his contract cost by having one less player on the list if needed.
Of course, this is all hypothetical. But if someone offered this to me, I'd bite their hand off

 

[Gets!]

Get him in. Be shrewd about the financial structure but get him in.

 

[Tex Danger]

Laird for Oliver

 

[Apsaalooke]

Spot on, exactly why I've never complained about the Gibbs deal. Didn't pay off but I'd rather take that gamble to get that little further than sit on our hands and protect our precious draft picks.

No-one complained about getting Gibbs at the time but at the fact that we got reamed, apparently because the CEO gave instructions to get it done regardless of the draft cost.
From memory his 1st year with us wasn't too bad - he played 22 games in 2018, then 12 and 3 games in the next 2 years.

 

[spenze]

Laird for Oliver

If that happened, Jenny wouldn't be able to read the board for 8 weeks...

 

[Golumless]

1 Injured player was not the reason why Nicks decided to change to a defensive game plan over preseason... particularly as the injury was just before the season began

No, but 1 injury could be the reason why a team loses a degree of confidence and sharpness in their ball movement, or begins to overthink for a while. It would be enhancing any other issues present, but as including star players (or players with rarer skillsets, and contested marking is a rare one) can snowball positively, ripping them out can cascade in the other direction.

Especially if Thilthorpe was on the verge of a breakout year.

 

[Tex Danger]

If that happened, Jenny wouldn't be able to read the board for 8 weeks...

Am I wrong it feels reasonably balanced if we take other salary? At least as te centerpiece

They get an instant replacement at lower cost and less risk. It’s an AA so easier to sell fans than a low pick

If we got Oliver laird would be surplus to our mids. Oliver’s $ become less risk as it’s really just taking onto difference now and we aren’t selling our future

 

[spenze]

Am I wrong it feels reasonably balanced if we take other salary? At least as te centerpiece

They get an instant replacement at lower cost and less risk. It’s an AA so easier to sell fans than a low pick

If we got Oliver laird would be surplus to our mids. Oliver’s $ become less risk as it’s really just taking onto difference now and we aren’t selling our future

I see what you mean and we are taking the risk because of Clarrys issues but geez, it'd look like highway robbery of the same sort of equivalent of Port saying to North "we will give you two shiny mid teen first rounders for this generational footballer"

 

[pjcrows]

The most dangerous words in the English language: "The Crows are in the box seat" or "The Crows hold all the cards". A sure sign we're about to get reamed, or fold.

 

[Tex Danger]

I see what you mean and we are taking the risk because of Clarrys issues but geez, it'd look like highway robbery of the same sort of equivalent of Port saying to North "we will give you two shiny mid teen first rounders for this generational footballer"

It’s really hard to value Oliver with all the variables (form, risk, salary, how much melb/new club take of that and maybe most importantly how badly do melb want to keep him or how badly they want him gone)

There’s a scenario amongst that where that’s highway robbery so never would happen but there’s also one where Melbourne jump at the chance

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

The most dangerous words in the English language: "The Crows are in the box seat" or "The Crows hold all the cards". A sure sign we're about to get reamed, or fold.

"War chest" is the other one. Code for no one incoming.

 

[Crow till I die]

"War chest" is the other one. Code for no one incoming.

'Organic growth' gets wheeled out when said war chest yields no one of note

 

[Trigger13]

Get him in. Fine. Take the risk.



BUT NOT FOR THIS YEAR’S FIRST ROUNDER!!!!!

 

[BACCS]

Hinge's first few games he was a liability. Which is my point. We need to draft and recruit players who are going to be considered the best in their positions if we're going to actually win a flag, which neither Keays or Hinge are. Murray could be, but he's a long way off yet.

Hinge is the 8th ranked player in his position this year and above the likes of Saad, NVM, Tom Stewart and Maynard and only just below Blakey. Hinge was starting to push into the elite territory for his position last year and has well and truly gone to that level this year.

Elite interceptor and also elite by foot, but sure, just a role player…

He had a poor couple of pre season games, not sure how you’ve confused that with form in the real stuff.

Keays has also been an elite pressure medium forward for nearly 2 seasons now and is just coming off one of the best games by a player this season. How is he not elite in that role?

 

[ABAB]

Get him in. Fine. Take the risk.



BUT NOT FOR THIS YEAR’S FIRST ROUNDER!!!!!

Unlike last year, "if" Melbourne want him gone then they will accept at most our future 1st rounder. Maybe this is the big fish the ITK poster mentioned many weeks ago as a "certainty" as Oliver does look to have completely checked out this season but Goodwin is desperate to make Finals so he continue to play him.

There hasn't been any report about his professionalism in his training and preparation until this year so maybe Burgess had more influence than we thought since he went off the rail around the same time Burgess left? Otherwise it's definitely a risk especially since Nicks will be still be coaching us next year.