Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation (Rumours total 25, last 28th August)

[Geoffa32]

Come on down Clarry, was done a few months ago. Won't be paying full salary, don't know picks involved.

The man/horse returns......

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[Southerntakeover]

Do the 'not worth the risk'ers have a better plan to deal with the structural problem of our rebuild: that we don't have a good enough midfield, and any drafted player is unlikely to mature to elite status whilst most of our core are in their window?

Doing nothing is to accept this generation as a write off. So what else, which is without risk?

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

You've totally missed the point - would I take a 31 yr old Neale or 29 yr old Cripps? Absolutely. But both of those guys are still performing at A grade levels and importantly have looked after their bodies properly over the journey. Oliver is not playing at A grade level and has not been kind to himself with his lifestyle. Will he get back to his best? Maybe but probably not. There's a better chance he completely falls off a cliff and isn't playing at all when he's only half way through that contract.

If we're restricted to guaranteed A Grade stars performing at prime levels only then there are none available, ever. Clubs don't let them go.

Unless you want to give up huge amounts in a trade (J Cameron) and/or a massive chunk of your salary cap to a FA (Franklin).

This is an opportunity to get talent in for less. Yes, there's plenty of risk attached but we've seen how things go with a no-risk approach.

 

[GreyCrow]

You can still mitigate the risk by keeping 5 for the Draper/Lalor pick

 

[Bob Neil]

Do the 'not worth the risk'ers have a better plan to deal with the structural problem of our rebuild: that we don't have a good enough midfield, and any drafted player is unlikely to mature to elite status whilst most of our core are in their window?

Doing nothing is to accept this generation as a write off. So what else, which is without risk?

It's a reasonable question and you're absolutely right that 'do nothing' is not a viable response and we do have a structural problem with our midfield.

However I feel like the Oliver play would be a classic case of 'chasing our losses' and not a good risk-reward gamble.

I would prefer that if we were going to go 'all in' on someone that it was a player like LDU or Bailey Smith who bring the same line-breaking midfield qualities that we need, are actually a better fit to our list profile age wise and don't bring any of the other baggage that Oliver has (edit: perhaps not fully true in Bailey Smith's case!).

If you're going to break the bank then do it on offer to one of those guys (or even a Bailey Humphrey if you want someone still on the way up) rather than Oliver.

 

[Bob Neil]

If we're restricted to guaranteed A Grade stars performing at prime levels only then there are none available, ever. Clubs don't let them go.

Unless you want to give up huge amounts in a trade (J Cameron) and/or a massive chunk of your salary cap to a FA (Franklin).

This is an opportunity to get talent in for less. Yes, there's plenty of risk attached but we've seen how things go with a no-risk approach.

You're right that no-risk/can't fail superstar opportunities simply don't come along...but I reckon (per post above) that Oliver is three red flags and so he's not the right guy to go all-in on.

Like I said go chips in on an LDU with a long-term $1M+ offer or to pry out an up and coming star such as Bailey Humphrey, Braeden Campbell or Mattaes Phillipou with a blockbuster offer that their side can't match (easier to do with a top side already paying up for a high quality list).

(Edit: perhaps chuck Mitch Owens on that list who seems to have stalled a bit and could perhaps have his head turned by a strong offer from an up and coming team).

 

[Captain Furious]

If we're restricted to guaranteed A Grade stars performing at prime levels only then there are none available, ever. Clubs don't let them go.

Unless you want to give up huge amounts in a trade (J Cameron) and/or a massive chunk of your salary cap to a FA (Franklin).

This is an opportunity to get talent in for less. Yes, there's plenty of risk attached but we've seen how things go with a no-risk approach.

Still missing the point. Suspect you know that.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

You can still mitigate the risk by keeping 5 for the Draper/Lalor pick

A future first for Oliver and Dees future 2nd - something along those lines just to star the conversation.

Keep our ~pick 4/5 this year and draft Lalor or Draper, sign Cumming as a FA and bring in Oliver on a heavily clause* based contract with Dee's paying some of it.

*IE - If Oliver screws up massively then we can delist him etc.

That mitigates the risk - we still draft our future midfield gun and take a calculated risk to potentially get a ready made superstar.

 

[Scorpus]

It's a reasonable question and you're absolutely right that 'do nothing' is not a viable response and we do have a structural problem with our midfield.

However I feel like the Oliver play would be a classic case of 'chasing our losses' and not a good risk-reward gamble.

I would prefer that if we were going to go 'all in' on someone that it was a player like LDU or Bailey Smith who bring the same line-breaking midfield qualities that we need, are actually a better fit to our list profile age wise and don't bring any of the other baggage that Oliver has (edit: perhaps not fully true in Bailey Smith's case!).

If you're going to break the bank then do it on offer to one of those guys (or even a Bailey Humphrey if you want someone still on the way up) rather than Oliver.

I guess the question is: what is the cost and outcome if it goes bad?

Draft Picks - assuming Melbourne are willingly offloading him, the impact to our draft hand should be small. No Bryce Gibbs multiple first rounders.

Hurts The Team - bringing him in could make the team worse due to culture issues or underperformance. I think this is irrelevant when the side is currently bad and bottom 5. We can mitigate this by not playing him, though IMO even this year he would have been best 22 for us, which is hopefully a down year

Salary Cap - assuming we take on the entirety of his $6 million deal, this is the biggest factor. But it has to be weighed against the true value of his output which is unlikely to be zero. Even with this year's output he wasn't worth $0, he has been performing like an average midfielder which cost about $500k these days.

Getting a league average player for 6 years would normally cost you about $3 million, so at most we are looking at "wasting" $3 million if it goes bad. I would say that at least $2 million of that we should be able to absorb easily by our inability to pay the salary cap floor - our squad is not worth the salary cap, so we should be able to carry $2 million instead of overpaying or front loading. This is the flexibility bad teams should have (we might not due to bad list management).

This would be further mitigated if Melbourne paid any of his salary. Drop his cost by $1 million and the deal looks decent.

List Spot - irrelevant, there's plenty of guys to delist

------

The biggest risk is not so much that he performs poorly, but that he just doesn't play at all, in which case we waste the salary.

If he's anywhere from average (this year) to elite (previous years) across most of his contract I think it's worth the risk and it would have little negative impact if he's closer to the bad end of the scale.

 

[Nicks_out_now]

Recruiting Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

isn't an issue.

Allowing the incompetent Justin Reid negotiate the trade is. He will massively over pay and hand over a first round pick and expect a parade.

The issue is how much should we give up in terms of a trade. That's the relevant part.

 

[ClaudeCurlsCrow]

I guess the question is: what is the cost and outcome if it goes bad?

Draft Picks - assuming Melbourne are willingly offloading him, the impact to our draft hand should be small. No Bryce Gibbs multiple first rounders.

Hurts The Team - bringing him in could make the team worse due to culture issues or underperformance. I think this is irrelevant when the side is currently bad and bottom 5. We can mitigate this by not playing him, though IMO even this year he would have been best 22 for us, which is hopefully a down year

Salary Cap - assuming we take on the entirety of his $6 million deal, this is the biggest factor. But it has to be weighed against the true value of his output which is unlikely to be zero. Even with this year's output he wasn't worth $0, he has been performing like an average midfielder which cost about $500k these days.

Getting a league average player for 6 years would normally cost you about $3 million, so at most we are looking at "wasting" $3 million if it goes bad. I would say that at least $2 million of that we should be able to absorb easily by our inability to pay the salary cap floor - our squad is not worth the salary cap, so we should be able to carry $2 million instead of overpaying or front loading. This is the flexibility bad teams should have (we might not due to bad list management).

This would be further mitigated if Melbourne paid any of his salary. Drop his cost by $1 million and the deal looks decent.

List Spot - irrelevant, there's plenty of guys to delist

------

The biggest risk is not so much that he performs poorly, but that he just doesn't play at all, in which case we waste the salary.

If he's anywhere from average (this year) to elite (previous years) across most of his contract I think it's worth the risk and it would have little negative impact if he's closer to the bad end of the scale.

Feels like a bad deal.....

If he does not perform and we essentially lose first rounder in 2025 which could be someone like a Dyson Sharp

I hope his poor behavior and bad lifestyle does not rub off on the younger lads.

 

[Nicks_out_now]

Feels like a bad deal.....

If he does not perform and we essentially lose first rounder in 2025 which could be someone like a Dyson Sharp

I hope his poor behavior and bad lifestyle does not rub off on the younger lads.

Any suggestions of a first round pick, now or future should be stopped

At no point should any consideration be given to trading a first round pick for Clayton Oliver.

 

[hidden]

Feels like a bad deal.....

If he does not perform and we essentially lose first rounder in 2025 which could be someone like a Dyson Sharp

I hope his poor behavior and bad lifestyle does not rub off on the younger lads.

We have twice landed ourselves "stars" who, when with us, were no longer shining. Carey and Gibbs. Yep, we got D Jarman but he didn't have the baggage of either of the other 2. We must get a high performing player, but we don't want one who is carrying any baggage that contains anything other than the clothes he needs

 

[Mutineer]

Recruiting Clayton Oliver isn't an issue.

Allowing the incompetent Justin Reid negotiate the trade is. He will massively over pay and hand over a first round pick and expect a parade.

The issue is how much should we give up in terms of a trade. That's the relevant part.

What utter crap, Reid has generally done very well when it comes to trading in/out players and picks etc. The only time he overpaid was for Gibbs but that was all down to then CEO Andrew Fagan who issued words to the effect "Don't come home without the Gibbs deal done".

Contrary to what some believe we did not overpay for Rankine an absolute elite footballer.

 

[ClaudeCurlsCrow]

Cumming as FA would be awesome

We have twice landed ourselves "stars" who, when with us, were no longer shining. Carey and Gibbs. Yep, we got D Jarman but he didn't have the baggage of either of the other 2. We must get a high performing player, but we don't want one who is carrying any baggage that contains anything other than the clothes he needs

Richard Tambling was another......

Only recent trades have worked out.... Dawson and Rankine.... can't think of any others.

 

[Nicks_out_now]

What utter crap, Reid has generally done very well when it comes to trading in/out players and picks etc. The only time he overpaid was for Gibbs but that was all down to then CEO Andrew Fagan who issued words to the effect "Don't come home without the Gibbs deal done".

Contrary to what some believe we did not overpay for Rankine an absolute elite footballer.

All will be sweet, if a first round pick isn't anywhere in sight.

 

[Mostyn]

You're right that no-risk/can't fail superstar opportunities simply don't come along...but I reckon (per post above) that Oliver is three red flags and so he's not the right guy to go all-in on.

Like I said go chips in on an LDU with a long-term $1M+ offer or to pry out an up and coming star such as Bailey Humphrey, Braeden Campbell or Mattaes Phillipou with a blockbuster offer that their side can't match (easier to do with a top side already paying up for a high quality list).

(Edit: perhaps chuck Mitch Owens on that list who seems to have stalled a bit and could perhaps have his head turned by a strong offer from an up and coming team).

We always suggest these names, without any consideration of why they'd relocate their lives to SA.

The money difference isn't enough. This isn't the NBA where you're talking $30m. It's a few hundred grand, maybe - and even then there will be SOMEONE in Vic who would match what we pay and potentially offer more off field income opportunities.

The other options very rarely exist.

I'm really concerned that he might be cooked, but equally we're one of the few sides who probably should take the risk.

 

[DJ75]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

 

[Mutineer]

All will be sweet, if a first round pick isn't anywhere in sight.

I tend to agree with that, absolutely in regards to 2024's 1st, a little less concern with 2025's 1st but we would really need to go in depth with Oliver's well documented medical issues, mental issues, substance issues, lifestyle issues with a fine tooth comb before I'd be commiting to him personally. And then not unless the Dees contribute to his salary over the term.

 

[Mostyn]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

Berry and a future pick swap.
Berry and their 2024 2nd back.

That sort of thing seems fine.

 

[Scorpus]

Feels like a bad deal.....

If he does not perform and we essentially lose first rounder in 2025 which could be someone like a Dyson Sharp

I hope his poor behavior and bad lifestyle does not rub off on the younger lads.

I don't see us giving up a first round pick or more in total

If Melbourne want to keep him, I doubt they'd even consider trading him, and if they did it would be for peak value as a contracted player. Which basically kills the deal.

If Melbourne don't want to keep him, they have no leverage to get a good pick. It would be a salary dump deal, the more salary we take on, the less of a pick it costs. This is the only scenario we should be considering and there's no way a club should be giving up a first round pick to take an unwanted player's $6 million contract.

 

[CromradeCromulent]

You know I always said that the piece of the puzzle this club was missing is our own super hans.

Imagine the nuggets of wisdom he could instill on our young players

 

[Ham]

Could Melb be interested in ROB if we have something planned?


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[DJ75]

Berry and a future pick swap.
Berry and their 2024 2nd back.

That sort of thing seems fine.

??
You think we can get Oliver & a 2nd round pick back for Berry?

We will have to give Berry + extra no matter how much they want him out of the club

 

[GreyCrow]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

You dont pay a premium for yellow bananas

This is not a 24 yr old Oliver this is a 27 yr old with baggage