![](https://images.bigfootymedia.com/icons/mobile-bullets/adelaide.png)
The man/horse returns......Come on down Clarry, was done a few months ago. Won't be paying full salary, don't know picks involved.
On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
LIVE: Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants - 3:20PM Sat - 1st QF
Squiggle tips Swans at 63% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
LIVE: Brisbane Lions vs Carlton - 7:30PM Sat - 1st EF
Squiggle tips Lions at 73% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
AFLW 2024 - Round 2 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
The man/horse returns......Come on down Clarry, was done a few months ago. Won't be paying full salary, don't know picks involved.
If we're restricted to guaranteed A Grade stars performing at prime levels only then there are none available, ever. Clubs don't let them go.You've totally missed the point - would I take a 31 yr old Neale or 29 yr old Cripps? Absolutely. But both of those guys are still performing at A grade levels and importantly have looked after their bodies properly over the journey. Oliver is not playing at A grade level and has not been kind to himself with his lifestyle. Will he get back to his best? Maybe but probably not. There's a better chance he completely falls off a cliff and isn't playing at all when he's only half way through that contract.
It's a reasonable question and you're absolutely right that 'do nothing' is not a viable response and we do have a structural problem with our midfield.Do the 'not worth the risk'ers have a better plan to deal with the structural problem of our rebuild: that we don't have a good enough midfield, and any drafted player is unlikely to mature to elite status whilst most of our core are in their window?
Doing nothing is to accept this generation as a write off. So what else, which is without risk?
You're right that no-risk/can't fail superstar opportunities simply don't come along...but I reckon (per post above) that Oliver is three red flags and so he's not the right guy to go all-in on.If we're restricted to guaranteed A Grade stars performing at prime levels only then there are none available, ever. Clubs don't let them go.
Unless you want to give up huge amounts in a trade (J Cameron) and/or a massive chunk of your salary cap to a FA (Franklin).
This is an opportunity to get talent in for less. Yes, there's plenty of risk attached but we've seen how things go with a no-risk approach.
Still missing the point. Suspect you know that.If we're restricted to guaranteed A Grade stars performing at prime levels only then there are none available, ever. Clubs don't let them go.
Unless you want to give up huge amounts in a trade (J Cameron) and/or a massive chunk of your salary cap to a FA (Franklin).
This is an opportunity to get talent in for less. Yes, there's plenty of risk attached but we've seen how things go with a no-risk approach.
You can still mitigate the risk by keeping 5 for the Draper/Lalor pick
It's a reasonable question and you're absolutely right that 'do nothing' is not a viable response and we do have a structural problem with our midfield.
However I feel like the Oliver play would be a classic case of 'chasing our losses' and not a good risk-reward gamble.
I would prefer that if we were going to go 'all in' on someone that it was a player like LDU or Bailey Smith who bring the same line-breaking midfield qualities that we need, are actually a better fit to our list profile age wise and don't bring any of the other baggage that Oliver has (edit: perhaps not fully true in Bailey Smith's case!).
If you're going to break the bank then do it on offer to one of those guys (or even a Bailey Humphrey if you want someone still on the way up) rather than Oliver.
Feels like a bad deal.....I guess the question is: what is the cost and outcome if it goes bad?
Draft Picks - assuming Melbourne are willingly offloading him, the impact to our draft hand should be small. No Bryce Gibbs multiple first rounders.
Hurts The Team - bringing him in could make the team worse due to culture issues or underperformance. I think this is irrelevant when the side is currently bad and bottom 5. We can mitigate this by not playing him, though IMO even this year he would have been best 22 for us, which is hopefully a down year
Salary Cap - assuming we take on the entirety of his $6 million deal, this is the biggest factor. But it has to be weighed against the true value of his output which is unlikely to be zero. Even with this year's output he wasn't worth $0, he has been performing like an average midfielder which cost about $500k these days.
Getting a league average player for 6 years would normally cost you about $3 million, so at most we are looking at "wasting" $3 million if it goes bad. I would say that at least $2 million of that we should be able to absorb easily by our inability to pay the salary cap floor - our squad is not worth the salary cap, so we should be able to carry $2 million instead of overpaying or front loading. This is the flexibility bad teams should have (we might not due to bad list management).
This would be further mitigated if Melbourne paid any of his salary. Drop his cost by $1 million and the deal looks decent.
List Spot - irrelevant, there's plenty of guys to delist
------
The biggest risk is not so much that he performs poorly, but that he just doesn't play at all, in which case we waste the salary.
If he's anywhere from average (this year) to elite (previous years) across most of his contract I think it's worth the risk and it would have little negative impact if he's closer to the bad end of the scale.
Feels like a bad deal.....
If he does not perform and we essentially lose first rounder in 2025 which could be someone like a Dyson Sharp
I hope his poor behavior and bad lifestyle does not rub off on the younger lads.
We have twice landed ourselves "stars" who, when with us, were no longer shining. Carey and Gibbs. Yep, we got D Jarman but he didn't have the baggage of either of the other 2. We must get a high performing player, but we don't want one who is carrying any baggage that contains anything other than the clothes he needsFeels like a bad deal.....
If he does not perform and we essentially lose first rounder in 2025 which could be someone like a Dyson Sharp
I hope his poor behavior and bad lifestyle does not rub off on the younger lads.
What utter crap, Reid has generally done very well when it comes to trading in/out players and picks etc. The only time he overpaid was for Gibbs but that was all down to then CEO Andrew Fagan who issued words to the effect "Don't come home without the Gibbs deal done".Recruiting Clayton Oliver isn't an issue.
Allowing the incompetent Justin Reid negotiate the trade is. He will massively over pay and hand over a first round pick and expect a parade.
The issue is how much should we give up in terms of a trade. That's the relevant part.
Richard Tambling was another......We have twice landed ourselves "stars" who, when with us, were no longer shining. Carey and Gibbs. Yep, we got D Jarman but he didn't have the baggage of either of the other 2. We must get a high performing player, but we don't want one who is carrying any baggage that contains anything other than the clothes he needs
What utter crap, Reid has generally done very well when it comes to trading in/out players and picks etc. The only time he overpaid was for Gibbs but that was all down to then CEO Andrew Fagan who issued words to the effect "Don't come home without the Gibbs deal done".
Contrary to what some believe we did not overpay for Rankine an absolute elite footballer.
We always suggest these names, without any consideration of why they'd relocate their lives to SA.You're right that no-risk/can't fail superstar opportunities simply don't come along...but I reckon (per post above) that Oliver is three red flags and so he's not the right guy to go all-in on.
Like I said go chips in on an LDU with a long-term $1M+ offer or to pry out an up and coming star such as Bailey Humphrey, Braeden Campbell or Mattaes Phillipou with a blockbuster offer that their side can't match (easier to do with a top side already paying up for a high quality list).
(Edit: perhaps chuck Mitch Owens on that list who seems to have stalled a bit and could perhaps have his head turned by a strong offer from an up and coming team).
I tend to agree with that, absolutely in regards to 2024's 1st, a little less concern with 2025's 1st but we would really need to go in depth with Oliver's well documented medical issues, mental issues, substance issues, lifestyle issues with a fine tooth comb before I'd be commiting to him personally. And then not unless the Dees contribute to his salary over the term.All will be sweet, if a first round pick isn't anywhere in sight.
Berry and a future pick swap.Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.
What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.
a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?
Feels like a bad deal.....
If he does not perform and we essentially lose first rounder in 2025 which could be someone like a Dyson Sharp
I hope his poor behavior and bad lifestyle does not rub off on the younger lads.
??Berry and a future pick swap.
Berry and their 2024 2nd back.
That sort of thing seems fine.
You dont pay a premium for yellow bananasLet's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.
What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.
a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?