Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation (Rumours total 25, last 28th August)

[GreyCrow]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

You dont pay a premium for yellow bananas

This is not a 24 yr old Oliver this is a 27 yr old with baggage

 

[Bazz_27]

Not exactly a massive exciting rumour but have been told Hamill is keen to go back to Vic if he gets an offer. Was delisted and rookied last year as the club didn't expect Sloane to play on. Playing some good footy this year prior to injury but due to us delisting him he is now a UFA every time he's out of contract which would make him more appealing to other clubs I'm sure. This info was from end of last year so could've changed after his run of games this year

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

You're right that no-risk/can't fail superstar opportunities simply don't come along...but I reckon (per post above) that Oliver is three red flags and so he's not the right guy to go all-in on.

Like I said go chips in on an LDU with a long-term $1M+ offer or to pry out an up and coming star such as Bailey Humphrey, Braeden Campbell or Mattaes Phillipou with a blockbuster offer that their side can't match (easier to do with a top side already paying up for a high quality list).

(Edit: perhaps chuck Mitch Owens on that list who seems to have stalled a bit and could perhaps have his head turned by a strong offer from an up and coming team).

Haven't we done that and struck out with Will Day, Errol Gulden?

We can keep kicking the can down the road waiting for the perfect option to present but I fear it won't eventuate and meanwhile the clock ticks.

 

[feenix67]

But not old enough not to make pathetic teenage dick jokes, apparently. Time to grow up.

You're being a bit Harrison there Jenny

 

[1990crow]

Haven't we done that and struck out with Will Day, Errol Gulden?

We can keep kicking the can down the road waiting for the perfect option to present but I fear it won't eventuate and meanwhile the clock ticks.

Dawson will only decline from here.

 

[Crows I Am]

In two minds about getting Oliver in. Last year I was all for it and would have been happy to give up whatever it took. After what has happened since the landscape has massively changed. He is obviously having a lot of off field issues and his form has dropped significantly. Also, our midfield is not looking as bleak as it was this time last year. Dawson is still killing it, Rankine has moved in there and is looking elite, Soligo is looking like a good fit in there and then we have guys like Taylor, Dowling, Berry and hopefully Curtin and Edwards who will move in there at some stage. Add to this that we have the option to draft a top 5 gun mid this year and our midfield is suddenly looking in a much better place.

Going after Oliver is a classic high risk/high reward situation. He could be a massive bust, become a bad influence on our young squad and then be stuck with him for another 5 years. Or he could find his old form and totally transform us into the premiership window earlier than we had expected.

I guess it all comes down to what we would need to give up to get him, if it costs us a 1st round pick I am saying No, if we can take on most of his salary and only give up a later pick then I would be ok with it. But again is a high risk move.

 

[Bazz_27]

It would be bad business for us to sign Oliver without some pretty tight conditions around drug usage. Given how reserved we generally are I assume we would only agree to terms that way.

What motivation is there for Oliver to move? Does he already have those conditions at the Dees?

Something just doesn't add up from my side as to everyone's motivation for this to work.

If dees are letting him go then they have given up and assume there is no way to get him back to his previous best and are trying to make room in their cap? So what is our motivation to take on that risk if the Dees can't resolve it?

He is contracted for so long that it makes no sense for them to trade him while his value is still high (pun intended) before he is OOC?

 

[1990crow]

It would be bad business for us to sign Oliver without some pretty tight conditions around drug usage. Given how reserved we generally are I assume we would only agree to terms that way.

What motivation is there for Oliver to move? Does he already have those conditions at the Dees?

Something just doesn't add up from my side as to everyone's motivation for this to work.

If dees are letting him go then they have given up and assume there is no way to get him back to his previous best and are trying to make room in their cap? So what is our motivation to take on that risk if the Dees can't resolve it?

He is contracted for so long that it makes no sense for them to trade him while his value is still high (pun intended) before he is OOC?

If he does come hopefully these questions are answered.

 

[Carn The Texan]

I know very little about salary cap stuff so forgive the ignorance... If we've got the cap space can we restructure the Oliver contract so its mostly front loaded (get as much of the contract in the first 2 years as possible) so if in two years time it hasnt worked out it's not stopping us from recruiting others? Between that and Melbourne taking some of the salary it might be worth the risk. If they're giving us a pick I'd definitely take it.

 

[feenix67]

Any chance we can get the “male bodily fluid” thing under control again please? It’s bloody gross and it’s permeating almost every thread again. Come on fellas, raise your standards!

Good one Jenny "raise your standards".

Get it? Get it?

 

[1990crow]

I know very little about salary cap stuff so forgive the ignorance... If we've got the cap space can we restructure the Oliver contract so its mostly front loaded (get as much of the contract in the first 2 years as possible) so if in two years time it hasnt worked out it's not stopping us from recruiting others? Between that and Melbourne taking some of the salary it might be worth the risk. If they're giving us a pick I'd definitely take it.

Pretty sure you can but the player has to agree.

 

[weekend at bernies]

Do the 'not worth the risk'ers have a better plan to deal with the structural problem of our rebuild: that we don't have a good enough midfield, and any drafted player is unlikely to mature to elite status whilst most of our core are in their window?

Doing nothing is to accept this generation as a write off. So what else, which is without risk?

ummm we've got Laird and Crouch

 

[weekend at bernies]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

I'd be willing to take his whole salary and their 1st pick.

 

[PeterSalt]

Here's a clip re Oliver and Adelaide from Footy Classified

 

[Betts are off]

Reading everyone 'risks' associated with Oliver. While I don't disagree with them, IMO you do need to contextualise them a bit. For example;

1) 27 years (and 1 day) is not old. Yes he will be 33 when his contract expires, but players of his ilk are generally in their prime until 30-31 and then get deployed elsewhere. Bottom line is im not using age as a detractor in weighing this up.

2) His MASSIVE contract is probably going to look like evens or potentially unders by the middle of its term (long deals almost always end up falling under the players value). The way salaries are going, Million dollar players will be far more the norm in 3-4 years, probably sooner. If you can get Melbourne to commit to say 20% over the life of the contract, it could end up being a bargain.

3) Whether or not he's off the rails. Well I have nothing there, that's a huge risk anyway you slice it. But if you are gonna take a risk I'd rather do it for a player who has shown his ceiling as a AA multi club champion superstar of the comp.

 

[Southerntakeover]

It's a reasonable question and you're absolutely right that 'do nothing' is not a viable response and we do have a structural problem with our midfield.

However I feel like the Oliver play would be a classic case of 'chasing our losses' and not a good risk-reward gamble.

I would prefer that if we were going to go 'all in' on someone that it was a player like LDU or Bailey Smith who bring the same line-breaking midfield qualities that we need, are actually a better fit to our list profile age wise and don't bring any of the other baggage that Oliver has (edit: perhaps not fully true in Bailey Smith's case!).

If you're going to break the bank then do it on offer to one of those guys (or even a Bailey Humphrey if you want someone still on the way up) rather than Oliver.

People can list players they prefer, but they also need to be available to us.

 

[Geoffa32]

We have a chance to get a genuine blue chip mid.....go for it.



Off field issues.... probably no worse than many other players.


Seems that he has a relationship with Burgess and wants to work with him again.





On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mostyn]

??
You think we can get Oliver & a 2nd round pick back for Berry?

We will have to give Berry + extra no matter how much they want him out of the club

You've misunderstood what I said.

Oliver for Berry and a future 1st round pick swap.

Oliver for Berry and the 2024 Melb 2nd (which we hold).

 

[1990crow]

You're misunderstand what I said.

Oliver for Berry and a future 1st round pick swap.

Oliver for Berry and the 2024 Melb 2nd (which we hold).

Future first pick swap makes more sense to me.

 

[Gary123]

Good one Jenny "raise your standards".

Get it? Get it?

Come on fellas!

 

[GreyCrow]

In two minds about getting Oliver in. Last year I was all for it and would have been happy to give up whatever it took. After what has happened since the landscape has massively changed. He is obviously having a lot of off field issues and his form has dropped significantly. Also, our midfield is not looking as bleak as it was this time last year. Dawson is still killing it, Rankine has moved in there and is looking elite, Soligo is looking like a good fit in there and then we have guys like Taylor, Dowling, Berry and hopefully Curtin and Edwards who will move in there at some stage. Add to this that we have the option to draft a top 5 gun mid this year and our midfield is suddenly looking in a much better place.

Going after Oliver is a classic high risk/high reward situation. He could be a massive bust, become a bad influence on our young squad and then be stuck with him for another 5 years. Or he could find his old form and totally transform us into the premiership window earlier than we had expected.

I guess it all comes down to what we would need to give up to get him, if it costs us a 1st round pick I am saying No, if we can take on most of his salary and only give up a later pick then I would be ok with it. But again is a high risk move.

I think these are valid concerns and I was mostly on board until you said '' stuck with an underperforming mid on a 5 year contract '' and you know where I immediately went

 

[WaynesWorld19]

It would be bad business for us to sign Oliver without some pretty tight conditions around drug usage. Given how reserved we generally are I assume we would only agree to terms that way.

What motivation is there for Oliver to move? Does he already have those conditions at the Dees?

Something just doesn't add up from my side as to everyone's motivation for this to work.

If dees are letting him go then they have given up and assume there is no way to get him back to his previous best and are trying to make room in their cap? So what is our motivation to take on that risk if the Dees can't resolve it?

He is contracted for so long that it makes no sense for them to trade him while his value is still high (pun intended) before he is OOC?

Yes, of course Oliver is going to promise anything you want ......same as he did to MELB

I do agree though, the last 5 weeks, he's simply going thru the motions out there ......if MELB had any ****, they would have dropped him

He doesn't look connected with the team .....so a trade is a distinct possibility ..... MELB though does not need to look after Oliver in a trade request, so the asking price will be high .....they (MELB) of course still think they can turn Oliver around

 

[Bob Neil]

We always suggest these names, without any consideration of why they'd relocate their lives to SA.

The money difference isn't enough. This isn't the NBA where you're talking $30m. It's a few hundred grand, maybe - and even then there will be SOMEONE in Vic who would match what we pay and potentially offer more off field income opportunities.

The other options very rarely exist.

I'm really concerned that he might be cooked, but equally we're one of the few sides who probably should take the risk.

That statement doesn't actually say anything without stating what degree of difference you're talking about. You're right it IS difficult to attract a player with no ties to SA to our club (putting aside for the moment if we happent to be an off-field basket case at that stage or not) and so we DO have to pay a premium.

However I dispute the fact that there is no number we can pay which wouldn't make a difference.

Let's say we're talking about LDU who will be a pretty hot commodity...we need to be prepared to pay $1.25m x 7 years rather than $1m x 6 years for instance which is close to $3m in total payment difference which is going to make a player (and their manager/GF!) sit up and take notice and give us every shot of landing a big fish.

Similarly with an up and comer like Braeden Campbell who was highly touted as a junior - more so than Gulden - but has since been in his shadow he can't (with a stacked list like the Swans) be getting much more than $500K x 3 as a salary right now as a fringe best 22 player. We could offer a guy like that $700k x 5 in the belief that (with the right opportunity) he could become the next Gulden.

To me they're both better value bets than throwing money at Oliver who just has too many risks associated with him IMO.

 

[1970crow]

If we trade for Clarry one or Crouch or Laird would have to go.

Forgive me if i don't hold our footy dept in the highest esteem

Both should go anyway, neither is required.

 

[Bob Neil]

Haven't we done that and struck out with Will Day, Errol Gulden?

We can keep kicking the can down the road waiting for the perfect option to present but I fear it won't eventuate and meanwhile the clock ticks.

That's a fair cop and we'll never know what offers we made to those guys (esp. Day who would have been perfect) - were they 'competitive' (i.e. within +/- 10% of what they accepted) or were they 'blockbuster' which made it hard to refuse.

I just don't think having missed out on the right options justifies now taking a poor (IMO) option.