Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation (Rumours total 25, last 28th August)

[Bob Neil]

People can list players they prefer, but they also need to be available to us.

Everyone has their price - we just need to be prepared to pay it.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Playing it safe hasn’t worked.

Geelong, Hawks, Richmond, all have taken or stood behind players you can’t exactly call role models.

Bring it on. We keep talking about this war chest… let’s ****ing use it.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

I love how we are 14th on the ladder and massively underperformed this year, yet people are worried about taking a risk

 

[Bazz_27]

Reading everyone 'risks' associated with Oliver. While I don't disagree with them, IMO you do need to contextualise them a bit. For example;

1) 27 years (and 1 day) is not old. Yes he will be 33 when his contract expires, but players of his ilk are generally in their prime until 30-31 and then get deployed elsewhere. Bottom line is im not using age as a detractor in weighing this up.

2) His MASSIVE contract is probably going to look like evens or potentially unders by the middle of its term (long deals almost always end up falling under the players value). The way salaries are going, Million dollar players will be far more the norm in 3-4 years, probably sooner. If you can get Melbourne to commit to say 20% over the life of the contract, it could end up being a bargain.

3) Whether or not he's off the rails. Well I have nothing there, that's a huge risk anyway you slice it. But if you are gonna take a risk I'd rather do it for a player who has shown his ceiling as a AA multi club champion superstar of the comp.

On point 2 - his contract apparently has increase % with CBA changes so the contract will only grow. The value is TBD but the cost is fixed as a % of salary cap

 

[Bazz_27]

I love how we are 14th on the ladder and massively underperformed this year, yet people are worried about taking a risk

This is a great point lol

 

[El Doederino]

We have twice landed ourselves "stars" who, when with us, were no longer shining. Carey and Gibbs. Yep, we got D Jarman but he didn't have the baggage of either of the other 2. We must get a high performing player, but we don't want one who is carrying any baggage that contains anything other than the clothes he needs

Oliver will be 1 year younger than Eddie Betts was when we got him

 

[Mutineer]

I love how we are 14th on the ladder and massively underperformed this year, yet people are worried about taking a risk

Yeah and if we take the risk and it involves using 1st round picks and it blows up in our face we will only be deeper in the mire and yet another YOUNG top end midfield prospect the worse off.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

Yeah and if we take the risk and it involves using 1st round picks and it blows up in our face we will only be deeper in the mire and yet another YOUNG top end midfield prospect the worse off.

And like I said mate - any deal should absolutely NOT involve this years first round pick.

I want Draper or Lalor 100%.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

The risk will either be draft based or salary based. Certainly won’t be both.

 

[Mutineer]

The risk will either be draft based or salary based. Certainly won’t be both.

How do you arrive at that?

Do Melbourne really want him gone that bad that they are going to be bent over....rememembering the story emenates from Sam Manure

 

[Eddie Murphy]

How do you arrive at that?

Do Melbourne really want him gone that bad that they are going to be bent over....rememembering the story emenates from Sam Manure

Because the hypothetical trade is only possible if Melbourne don’t want him. It’s illogical for Melbourne to offload him if they’ve backed in both him and his contract. And it’s illogical for us to pursue him if Melbourne are expecting full value for him.

Of course, the report isn’t coming from a credible source. But it’s a discussion worth hypothesising- isn’t that what footy forums do all day anyway?

 

[Mostyn]

That statement doesn't actually say anything without stating what degree of difference you're talking about. You're right it IS difficult to attract a player with no ties to SA to our club (putting aside for the moment if we happent to be an off-field basket case at that stage or not) and so we DO have to pay a premium.

However I dispute the fact that there is no number we can pay which wouldn't make a difference.

Let's say we're talking about LDU who will be a pretty hot commodity...we need to be prepared to pay $1.25m x 7 years rather than $1m x 6 years for instance which is close to $3m in total payment difference which is going to make a player (and their manager/GF!) sit up and take notice and give us every shot of landing a big fish.

Similarly with an up and comer like Braeden Campbell who was highly touted as a junior - more so than Gulden - but has since been in his shadow he can't (with a stacked list like the Swans) be getting much more than $500K x 3 as a salary right now as a fringe best 22 player. We could offer a guy like that $700k x 5 in the belief that (with the right opportunity) he could become the next Gulden.

To me they're both better value bets than throwing money at Oliver who just has too many risks associated with him IMO.

There would be four or five clubs in Melbourbne who would offer LDU $1.2m+. No need to bother with us.

Campbell isn't a bad idea, though. Take someone who's own team will struggle to give them a big payrise and blow them away with a number? That's worth pursuing.

I don't think that stops you going after Oliver though - the reason to do or not do that isn't because you have a better player you can get for cheaper.

 

[GreyCrow]

How do you arrive at that?

Do Melbourne really want him gone that bad that they are going to be bent over....rememembering the story emenates from Sam Manure

Then he stays

 

[Mostyn]

That's a fair cop and we'll never know what offers we made to those guys (esp. Day who would have been perfect) - were they 'competitive' (i.e. within +/- 10% of what they accepted) or were they 'blockbuster' which made it hard to refuse.

I just don't think having missed out on the right options justifies now taking a poor (IMO) option.

I think the manager gets a blockbuster deal from us, goes back to the original club, and they increase their offer to match.

 

[OccamsRazorRay]

Yeah and if we take the risk and it involves using 1st round picks and it blows up in our face we will only be deeper in the mire and yet another YOUNG top end midfield prospect the worse off.

Surely most people are on the same page there.....surely. No way we cough up a 1st round full stop

 

[OccamsRazorRay]

I think the manager gets a blockbuster deal from us, goes back to the original club, and they increase their offer to match.

Which, although Primarily is disappointing for us in not getting that player, it performs a secondary function and holds other clubs to account. I think it was Bartel who came out recently and said he had it good authority that Sydney didn't want to sign Gulden to such a lengthy contract, and that it was the Crows that forced their hand.

 

[hippyhippy]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

No 1st rounders should be involved since we are doing mfc a favour by taking the contract

 

[OccamsRazorRay]

Let's say there is a good chance of getting Oliver.

What would you be willing to give up to get him? Let's assume we pay 3/4 of his salary, but Melbourne want something reasonable back. How far would you be willing to go? I'm going to also assume Melbourne are interested in Berry as a like for like replacement.

a. Our 2024 1st pick?
b. Berry and a 2024 2nd round pick?
c. Berry and a future first?
d. 2024 2nd round pick and a future pick?
e. Multiple future picks?
f. Berry + other players?

G - Give zero picks and ask for Melbourne's 1st round pick to take on the entire contract

 

[Apsaalooke]

Here’s an idea. Instead of taking on a huge risk like Oliver, why don’t our recruiters actually do their job properly and find us a Durham or Newcombe, or even a Noble or D’Ambrosio, with minimal risk/salary/loss of draft picks?

 

[GameofSloanes]

Pretty sure you can but the player has to agree.

Which they would, because more money sooner

 

[Mutineer]

Here’s an idea. Instead of taking on a huge risk like Oliver, why don’t our recruiters actually do their job properly and find us a Durham or Newcombe, or even a Noble or D’Ambrosio, with minimal risk/salary/loss of draft picks?

Something wrong with Nick Murray, Hinge and Keays?

 

[hippyhippy]

Future first pick swap makes more sense to me.

It might be a break even pick wise... With oliver and a potentially another good midfielder, i think we could finish ahead of them next year

 

[AFC979810]

Something wrong with Nick Murray, Hinge and Keays?

We haven't played finals for 7 years. I wouldn't be bragging about our recruiting.

 

[hippyhippy]

Here’s an idea. Instead of taking on a huge risk like Oliver, why don’t our recruiters actually do their job properly and find us a Durham or Newcombe, or even a Noble or D’Ambrosio, with minimal risk/salary/loss of draft picks?

Trusting our recruiters is a bigger risk at this stage...

 

[Bearded Clam]

We have twice landed ourselves "stars" who, when with us, were no longer shining. Carey and Gibbs. Yep, we got D Jarman but he didn't have the baggage of either of the other 2. We must get a high performing player, but we don't want one who is carrying any baggage that contains anything other than the clothes he needs

Gibbs?… a star?

Gibbs barely scrapped into being MVP at the shittest club in the league whilst he was there..

Gibbs was massively overrated. Nit even near “star” status.

We got absolutely reamed at the trade table over Bryce.

Worst trade deal the club has ever made.

Carey I’ll give ya.. but Wayne Carey is still in my top 5 best ever players I’ve ever seen play the game.. its just that he was pretty much cooked by the time he got to Adelaide.. then got injured.