List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[archereleven]

Why? Three first rounders looks good on paper, but it means we could miss out on Armstrong and Tauru. What would the point be?

People complain about 6+18 or 7+15 but if we’re sliding we aren’t going for midfielders, so at least those deals get us a top tier tall and a second tier tall.

10, 11 and 18 might get us three second tier talls.

It would be tempting...

One of Tauru/Armstrong should be there, and there is a chance both are imo.

As it stands, Twomeys draft rankings would have us draft -

10 - Armstrong
11 - Travaglia
18 - Berry

3 very good prospects.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NMFC TID]

Some people on here melting about trading our future first and not being involved in the first round next year…
Next year it’s likely we will be able to trade picks 2 years in advance if we want to get involved in the first round.

Be aggressive and get talent in, win some games and start becoming an attractive FA destination again. If that happens we shouldn’t need first round picks. If we are still needing first round pick by 2026/27 we may as well shut it down

 

[Psicosis]

Perfect time to go after some free agents.
Tbh I'm warming to the idea of not having a first pick next year if it means an extra 2-3 guns this year.
Line in the sand type shit

It’s wildly optimistic to think that we are going to able to attract free agents next year without a Hawthorn esc rise. It’s also wildly optimistic to expect a Hawthorn esc rise.

 

[Psicosis]

Some people on here melting about trading our future first and not being involved in the first round next year…
Next year it’s likely we will be able to trade picks 2 years in advance if we want to get involved in the first round.

Be aggressive and get talent in, win some games and start becoming an attractive FA destination again. If that happens we shouldn’t need first round picks. If we are still needing first round pick by 2026/27 we may as well shut it down

We haven’t been able to sell our F1 for pick 13 this year (likely a 10 pick upgrade). Not sure how that’s all of a sudden going to be easier next year, by just overpaying more and throwing in 2xF1’s? No thanks.

 

[NMFC TID]

We haven’t been able to sell our F1 for pick 13 this year (likely a 10 pick upgrade). Not sure how that’s all of a sudden going to be easier next year, by just overpaying more and throwing in 2xF1’s? No thanks.

We don’t have to trade both. We have the option of using two and potentially having two first round picks. Each draft is different. This year there’s clearly value deeper. Next year it might be all at the pointy end. The plonkers that keep harping on about previous years trades that should be relevant for this year and trying to sort trades out of pick points value are delusional. The market is the market.

 

[My Left Foote]

I've never given two shits about the Melbourne Cup and it seems like most people are coming around to that view. Perhaps it's time to can this public holiday and establish a new public holiday on AFL Draft Day.

I’m not sure the Big Footy servers could cope with everybody having the day off on Draft Day.

 

[Horace]

I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest we will finish muh higher on the ladder next year and so our Pick 1 in an allegedly weaker draft, may not be such a huge price to pay to get into a better position this year.

I'm not saying finals but mid table. 9th to 13th and why not?)

 

[ToxicMegaPunts]

I’m not sure the Big Footy servers could cope with everybody having the day off on Draft Day.

 

[The Nostradamus]

All aboard the Draper train. Would only trade pick 2 for the Aints 7 & 8 or Tigs 6 & 10 or their 6 & 11. Otherwise no deals.

FOS or Lalor train but yes agree those are the deals to make us reconsider

 

[DuckYeah]

It will be Nmfc luck that over the next decade the No 2 will be a Brownlow, AA and Norm Smith winner playing for Richmond, whilst the two we get will be on Love Island and the other Coaching the seconds at Labrador QLD

You know it will happen

Ever since March 2022 every sliver lining at this club turns to rust

Leave it as No 2

Plausible… 1000%

 

[Blightys Barrel]

Except we are 16th choice! Even Tarp City is ahead of us.

We can throw all the gold in Saudi Arabia at them, still doesn't work, unless you've been alive for only 14 or so years (which wouldn't surprise me). The free agents we get are cooked/washed up/retired/thinking about their super. We need to be better on field, which will/may happen in good time. Fast forwarding mid table finishes will be end of me after the river of absolute shit we've had to swim thru.

When I first set eyes on Andy Dufresne….

 

[Gasometer]

When I first set eyes on Andy Dufresne….

 

[chubbspeterson]

It’s a very different world in terms of money and resources.

And for all their hits, they have certainly made plenty of misses. It’s more the stockpiling of assets that gives them so many opportunities in a sport where 1 guy can make such an impact.

Yes it's different scale and different sport, but there would be some awesome learnings and things that overlaps from what they look for in their draftees. It would be very interesting to know the weighting do they put on character, organisational fit, skill package, athleticism, all-star upside, leadership and other personality traits.
Sure, they've had some misses like every team does. Still think they are good operators and draft/develop well.
76ers had heaps of assets and only real hit on Embiid and Maxey from a draft point of view.
Anyway it'd be fascinating to see their draft process. You need a bit of luck with everything as well.

 

[chubbspeterson]

We haven’t been able to sell our F1 for pick 13 this year (likely a 10 pick upgrade). Not sure how that’s all of a sudden going to be easier next year, by just overpaying more and throwing in 2xF1’s? No thanks.

Don't spout that crap from oppo fans about "how you couldn't get 13 with the F1".
The only reason we couldn't get 13 off GC (and likely 23 or 29) for our F1 was because GC wanted to deal with Port and Pies for Luko and Noble. If it was just a straight trade of pick 13, which almost happened and was threatened to make Port cave on the deal, it would've gone to us. The players kinda complicated that trade.

I do agree we shouldn't trade our F1 lightly as it's likely a top 5 pick even with 6-8 wins next year.
I guess it depends what player(s) you are getting in 12 months earlier as to if it's worth it or not.
It's obviously been discussed by the club, so they must want someone in that early teens range.
If we dealt 2 to Saints for 7 and a F1, then I think we could move one of those F1's.
I'd certainly hope we are valuing are own F1 realistically as a top 5 pick though in trades.

 

[Psicosis]

Don't spout that crap from oppo fans about "how you couldn't get 13 with the F1".
The only reason we couldn't get 13 off GC (and likely 23 or 29) for our F1 was because GC wanted to deal with Port and Pies for Luko and Noble. If it was just a straight trade of pick 13, which almost happened and was threatened to make Port cave on the deal, it would've gone to us. The players kinda complicated that trade.

I do agree we shouldn't trade our F1 lightly as it's likely a top 5 pick even with 6-8 wins next year.
I guess it depends what player(s) you are getting in 12 months earlier as to if it's worth it or not.
It's obviously been discussed by the club, so they must want someone in that early teens range.
If we dealt 2 to Saints for 7 and a F1, then I think we could move one of those F1's.
I'd certainly hope we are valuing are own F1 realistically as a top 5 pick though in trades.

It’s fairly public knowledge that our F1 has been on the table. The fact we were willing to part with it for pick 13, shows it as being undervalued IMO. If we were willing to trade it for 13, we can safely assume we were/are willing to trade it for anything earlier than 13 & potentially something later than 13. We haven’t been able to find a taker at this stage thankfully.

The market absolutely determines the value, but you don’t sell your house when the markets dead at a significantly lower rate unless you absolutely have to…

 

[LuvtheKangas]

It’s fairly public knowledge that our F1 has been on the table. The fact we were willing to part with it for pick 13, shows it as being undervalued IMO. If we were willing to trade it for 13, we can safely assume we were/are willing to trade it for anything earlier than 13 & potentially something later than 13. We haven’t been able to find a taker at this stage thankfully.

The market absolutely determines the value, but you don’t sell your house when the markets dead at a significantly lower rate unless you absolutely have to…

This was always speculation. There was never any confirmation that we were doing a straight swap of F1 for 13. It was touted because those making up fantasy trades thought 13 would get us Houston and rationalised that F1 for Houston was a good deal.

But it did serve the purpose of enabling people to whine about Brady doing something wrong.

 

[Psicosis]

This was always speculation. There was never any confirmation that we were doing a straight swap of F1 for 13. It was touted because those making up fantasy trades thought 13 would get us Houston and rationalised that F1 for Houston was a good deal.

But it did serve the purpose of enabling people to whine about Brady doing something wrong.

Twomey was reporting on F1 for 13, who is on the more reliable end. I personally don’t think we can just dismiss everything that’s reported by journos if it doesn’t suit our narrative.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Twomey was reporting on F1 for 13, who is on the more reliable end. I personally don’t think we can just dismiss everything that’s reported by journos if it doesn’t suit our narrative.

Not dismissing it, just pointing out that there was never any confirmation of the speculation. And whilst Twomey is more reliable than most, he also speculates a fair bit too.

 

[Rooboys Rool]

Is this the first year ever where next year isn’t a super draft?

I’ll be very disappointed if we trade out our F1 for F all. If we can’t get a suitable trade for pick 2, keep it and trade our F2 for a 2nd rd pick this year. Both Brisbane & *’s are likely gettable.

2 - best available (Draper or Smith for mine)
~30 - KPF
~50 - KPD
Last pick / rookie - River

 

[Sphynx]

Is this the first year ever where next year isn’t a super draft?

I’ll be very disappointed if we trade out our F1 for F all. If we can’t get a suitable trade for pick 2, keep it and trade our F2 for a 2nd rd pick this year. Both Brisbane & *’s are likely gettable.

2 - best available (Draper or Smith for mine)
~30 - KPF
~50 - KPD
Last pick / rookie - River

This time last year, this year wasn't a "super draft".

It's not a super draft and it drives me nuts people referring to it as such. Super drafts like 2017 was viewed generally start with a big batch of absolute top end talent.

The hype around Walsh, Rankine, Lukosious, the King twins, Rozee, Smith was far higher than this year. And it had perceived depth.....

This year just has the depth, with the top end talent being behind most other years imo. That's not saying I want to get rid of Pick 2 either, as you will have more chance of nabbing a player better than most years the higher you are. See Sheezel/Wardlaw.


The Metro midfield which was Windsor, Jagga, Smillie, Ashcroft etc got absolutely pumped by McKercher, Sanders and Rogers last year. Admittedly a year makes a major difference, but it's a point of note to considering going too overboard with these statements.

 

[King Corey]

The desperation to offload the F1 on here from our historic and projected position is baffling.

Whilst I didn't agree with doing it for Houston I could at least understand the logic of cashing out a likely high draft pick for a proven player + change.

Doing it just to "speed up the rebuild" doesn't make sense unless you're selling at a premium, e.g. Melbourne throw #5 on the table for it for example.

In 12 months time the same folks wanting to burn tomorrow will be spoofing up about Sharp & Co and wondering if we can trade our 2026 F1 to get a shot at one of them.

Pretty simple investment process to build rolling list quality year to year - take your 1st selection to the draft unless you're getting a great return or are on the cusp and can fill out your list profile with a 'missing piece' player.

 

[Shinboner1]

The desperation to offload the F1 on here from our historic and projected position is baffling.

Whilst I didn't agree with doing it for Houston I could at least understand the logic of cashing out a likely high draft pick for a proven player + change.

Doing it just to "speed up the rebuild" doesn't make sense unless you're selling at a premium, e.g. Melbourne throw #5 on the table for it for example.

In 12 months time the same folks wanting to burn tomorrow will be spoofing up about Sharp & Co and wondering if we can trade our 2026 F1 to get a shot at one of them.

Pretty simple investment process to build rolling list quality year to year - take your 1st selection to the draft unless you're getting a great return or are on the cusp and can fill out your list profile with a 'missing piece' player.

Got no picks mate

 

[Boro]

Got no picks mate

So use a F2 or 3 … don’t be giving up a F1 for some pick in the teens

 

[Samsquanch]

I’ll be very disappointed if we trade out our F1 for F all.

It is clear that in the eyes of the AFL accredited media organisations, North are so crap that our pick 2 and F1 are devalued to the extent that we should be forced to accept whatever trade an opposition club offers us and that we should be grateful if it is even remotely even handed.

 

[King Corey]

So use a F2 or 3 … don’t be giving up a F1 for some pick in the teens

Exactly this. Even cop a hit on the F2 if we're that desperate - eg F2 for 2 x 3rd rounders for example.

But don't pawn the F1 which is more chance to be #1 than it is to be #9+ just to patch up the hole from the Daniel trade.