List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part II

[The acurate one]

Oh boy!!

Bert Nyuon, Toby Pink, Phillips, Teakle, Harvey, lazzo, Taylor, Free, Drury should be enough to grab it.

 

[Farthers]

If l was Richmond...where do l sign!!! Clearly overs for Baker!!

I assume they plan on splitting the pick first

 

[Its a Process]

Good lord lol

I haven't read the article but I am sure they are expecting a pick between 8-12 coming back.

 

[franjon]

Zurhaar needs to get much fitter, aerobically. Talent is not questioned

I've seen the size of some of those rib-eye's and that isn't going to be an easy gig.

 

[lockheed]

Am sure we could turn his head with a 15 year deal.

It's now obvious that you're assisting the club with managing it's contracts and salary cap

 

[giantroo]

They could very well end up with picks 1,2,3 if the Tigers came for our pick with a decent trade.

 

[The Nostradamus]

They could very well end up with picks 1,2,3 if the Tigers came for our pick with a decent trade.

That would allow them to hedge their bets

They would need to pay us serious overs tho for pick 2

Like pick 6 and 9 for 2 might not even be enough

 

[ExorcismOfArdenStreet]

Aints believe Battle compo will be first round LOL Magoo lite, Hawthorn dont know what they’re in for

I hope to hear from clarko saying it's a rort from Lyon and co. and draft manipulation

 

[DuckYeah]

I'd be surprised if this happened, the Hawks have no reason to modify their offer to suit the Saints as they don't have the option to match.

Why? So they can’t force a trade? Ohh he’s Unrestricted. LOL sucked in Ainters

 

[nicko74]

I hope to hear from clarko saying it's a rort from Lyon and co. and draft manipulation

Is that what Lyon said? If so, where?

 

[ExorcismOfArdenStreet]

Is that what Lyon said? If so, where?

It was more around the assistance package but you know they were offended about the McKay compensation looming as well. Was on afl 360 last year

 

[ferball]

can I answer it with a question in reply? if you went back to 2022, would you pass on Harry Sheezel to take Bailey Humphrey and Jacob Konstanty?

Who is Harry Sheezel this year?

 

[ferball]

To be fair no one knew what Harry would be, looking back I was keen on Tsatas & Wardlaw. Imagine we missed out on Harry after all the crap this club has been through

A couple of draft watchers were big on Harry.

Maybe Souup and roos_fanatic08? At least one of them speculated that he could be as good as he turned out to be in the middle.

 

[New_Roo]

That would allow them to hedge their bets

They would need to pay us serious overs tho for pick 2

Like pick 6 and 9 for 2 might not even be enough

So if they have 1 and 3, not sure why they would pay serious overs for pick 2


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[ohmygewd]

I assume they plan on splitting the pick first

WCE or Richmond? If l was Richmond Baker + 21 for 3 if not there's Freo to deal with.

 

[HBFlanker]

That would allow them to hedge their bets

They would need to pay us serious overs tho for pick 2

Like pick 6 and 9 for 2 might not even be enough

North would do 6 and 9 for pick 2 in an absolute heartbeat.

 

[ferball]

You can believe media bathwater about draft depth, generational talents, blah blah, but here's the actual statistical facts



View attachment 2100431

So you reckon pick 7 and 9 instead?

I agree top five certainly looks better than bottom five in terms of games played but between them picks six and nine play more games than pick 2 and pick seven and nine play nearly 100 more games between them. And we're stretching the point here using average games played alone as the basis for judging how we value this years draft.

For me the question is:

Do 150 games from one of the top three picks in this draft give us more value than 200-240 games from two players fill definite needs given how even it is?

 

[ferball]

Probably Murphy Reid ...which poster called him the K-Mart version of Sheez

Yeah he could be it. He could also go anywhere from top 5 to 15th depending on who is predicting the draft.

 

[ohmygewd]

A couple of draft watchers were big on Harry.

Maybe Souup and roos_fanatic08? At least one of them speculated that he could be as good as he turned out to be in the middle.

Twomey had in his final guide:
Ashcroft
Wardlaw
Tsatas
Sheezel

His Phantom was:
Cadman
Ashcroft (bid)
Sheezel
Wardlaw.

Personally, if we had the picks and didn't nominate, i would have taken all three Sandy Dragon boys in 22!

So if they have 1 and 3, not sure why they would pay serious overs for pick 2


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Because to get picks 1,2,3 Richmond could get the 2 best mids and the best KPP player..what a start to a rebuild!!

 

[HBFlanker]

If West Coast part with Pick 3 as any part of the Baker deal they deserve all the criticism they get.

He's worth something between 10 and 15 on his own.

They could split pick 3, but it would be worth a heap, and wont have many suitors.

 

[ferball]

Pick 13 averaging 118 games is pretty impressive as well.

More than pick four, who averages 112 games.

BTW Here are some historical pick fours:

Peter Matera, Justin Leppitsch, Matthew Pavlich, Josh Kennedy, Andrew Gaff, Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Nick Daicos.

Some of the best players in the game either now or of their era.

Last two years were George Wardlaw and Zane Duursma.

It also includes such names as Cale Morten, Tambling, Toumpas and the inimitable Farren Ray as well as Ben Ainsworth and Logan McDonald recently (those two not bad players but could have gone in the top 20 for what they show.)

So some real hits and misses with pick 4. And a good chance that five of the best mids of the late 2010s/2020s were picked there.

 

[New_Roo]

Twomey had in his final guide:
Ashcroft
Wardlaw
Tsatas
Sheezel

His Phantom was:
Cadman
Ashcroft (bid)
Sheezel
Wardlaw.

Personally, if we had the picks and didn't nominate, i would have taken all three Sandy Dragon boys in 22!




Because to get picks 1,2,3 Richmond could get the 2 best mids and the best KPP player..what a start to a rebuild!!

It's not a draft where it's worth paying overs for though


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[DrZaius]

Yeah, nah.

There's a pretty good correlation between where you were taken in the draft and how many Brownlow votes earned, and the likelihood of being an All-Australian.

High draft picks play more games because they are better players.

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

That's a great resource.

Obviously higher draft picks are more likely to be better players, my point was about them being given time for that potential to be realised. If you are throwing darts at a board you are more likely to draft players that go on to have a longer career with higher picks simply due to having a larger pool available to you and the sunk cost associated, but that doesn't mean individually they have better careers simply because they were high picks. It's a case by case basis because there are still plenty of duds mixed in with the superstars.

A quick skim of the Brownlow votes by draft pick is interesting reading. Picks 1 & 2 seem to have a more even spread of votes, though pick 1's average is inflated by the period between 2000-2006 with guys like Riewoldt, Hodge, Cooney, Murphy etc. as the only guys close to or above 100 votes. Since 2006 though there have only been two number 1 picks that have accrued more than 50 brownlow votes in their careers (so far).
Similarly with pick 2 you have the average inflated by Lappin, Cotchin, Kelly, Petracca, with Wells & Coniglio in the 70's. Though only Cotchin has over 100 votes.
Pick 3 is a very interesting case though as only two players have tallied more than 100 Brownlow votes, those being Dustin Martin and Chris Judd who have over 200 each. The next best (and only remaining players on the list with over 50 votes) are Shannon Grant & Ryan Griffen.

I'm not going to go over every single pick with a fine toothed comb but hopefully you get my point.

 

[DrZaius]

They could very well end up with picks 1,2,3 if the Tigers came for our pick with a decent trade.

Would have to be a pretty decent haul for us to give up not only the pick on face value, but any leverage that comes with being the only club preventing Richmond from having a complete monopoly on the top 3 of the draft.

 

[backtothedraft]

It's not a draft where it's worth paying overs for though


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I agree, i don't think the market is going to be there for Pick 2 this year. Not sure the offers we get for it will be in inline with supporters expectations. I think best scenario will be taking best available at pick 2, and using our F2 to hopefully move our pick 22 up into a mid-late first round pick where can look at filling a need (e.g. KPP, small fwd/defender)