List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.2

[Tommy Wigs]

Surely Brisbane are looking at trading their first ,its not a great on, but still good in this draft.
I guess it will go to the highest bidder. Would we throw up our future first for it?
Our future second maybe not enough.

Sounds like Richmond will be right into it. They have a myriad of later picks

 

[Premium]

I'm confident that the midfield is better with Macrae. The back 6 is going to be the big question mark over the side. Our back 6 kept us in matches last year. A fit side will make a huge difference as well but really need a third tall back ready to go.

Not a problem with our back 6 - remember we lost Webster , Howard , Wood all at the same time last year for around 5 to 6 games straight early in the season and Sinclair was not at his best due to his restricted preseason.
Which had us needing Cordy and Bonner to cover which didn't really cut it.

Of course if we get a injury to Wilkie or Howard we will be in trouble because Cordy is really just back up.

But I fully expect a fitter and sharper Stocker to be a tag team with Webster and with the young guys in McLennan , Hastie and Schoemaker all fighting for the one spot.
Our halfback runners in Sinclair and Milera are to good to move anywhere else and Wilkie and Howard cover the talls.
I feel if we need another tall down back they will use Hammer.
But the way Lyon plays I feel our defense is the least of our problems.
Missing Crouch this year is like 10 x worse than losing Battle.

 

[stavro#4]

Disagree. Uninjured Crouch remains one of the top 20 in the AFL at what he does.

What is there to disagree with? Crouch played one game.

How can he be considered in our best side - with no guarantee he can play?

All that is true but there is no guarantee that we finish above bottom 4. Another injury year, a couple of kids go backwards and some close losses and we could be throwing away a FRDP. I don't like trading away future pick unless there is something incredible still on the board. SOS paid up big for Stocker doing this exact thing.

You claim one minute we are good enough to push for top 4 and now your saying we could be bottom 4.

Here is the thing. If they have done the work and they rate a specific talent and can land him.

Back them in.

You can’t sit idle forever and expect to contend.

 

[austinnn]

I'm confident that the midfield is better with Macrae. The back 6 is going to be the big question mark over the side. Our back 6 kept us in matches last year. A fit side will make a huge difference as well but really need a third tall back ready to go.

Analysing whether we improve or not is only 1/18 of the equation; you need to look at how the other 17 teams will change compared to this season.

I see the Dons falling behind us, possibly Carlton and Port. I don't see many teams under us on the final 2024 ladder rising up much, maybe West Coast or the Suns. I'd say if we improve like we should we could end up back in that 10th-7th range.

 

[PandaG]

Analysing whether we improve or not is only 1/18 of the equation; you need to look at how the other 17 teams will change compared to this season.

I see the Dons falling behind us, possibly Carlton and Port. I don't see many teams under us on the final 2024 ladder rising up much, maybe West Coast or the Suns. I'd say if we improve like we should we could end up back in that 10th-7th range.

We are a mid tier team simply due to the fact we have no current midfield superstars. When we get one or a few develop we will be a top 6 team
Next year will again be 7th-14th depending on the health of our list and the draw

 

[HeavenlySources]

If Essendon are smart they look to move up in the draft, not down.

It's already unlikely they have to use their first on a bid I think.

Would have to be someone above us. That means Essendon trading 9 + Future 1st for 2/3. If that's the deal then we can easily swoop in and make a better offer to North or WC (8 + Future 1st For 2/3).

If Essendon List Management think about their situation they will understand there is only two options:

1) Take our deal
2) Call our bluff

They can't trade up, we have them over a barrel, they need to take our Future 1st for Pick 9 and hope we finish bottom 5 next year or risk losing their academy player who looks an electric prospect and is a positional need for them.

 

[HeavenlySources]

I still don't rate Lalor either. If we moved up to grab him I think we'd be moving up to get a player we might have got anyway.

This comment will haunt us hahaha

 

[PandaG]

Any truth that Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

36

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

will be at the club next year as a coach..?

 

[ScrappyDo]

Analysing whether we improve or not is only 1/18 of the equation; you need to look at how the other 17 teams will change compared to this season.

I see the Dons falling behind us, possibly Carlton and Port. I don't see many teams under us on the final 2024 ladder rising up much, maybe West Coast or the Suns. I'd say if we improve like we should we could end up back in that 10th-7th range.

That analysis doesn't work. Our ability to project improvement of our own team is probably running below 50% accuracy, and our ability to project other clubs is lower again.
Take that already very low odds equation and add injuries, morale, tactics etc, etc and it becomes futile.
Generally all teams fit into 2 modes, both ending in rebuilds.
1. trends upwards over 5-10 years until they plateau then pop, then do a hard rebuild.
2. is death vally. Norff did a hard rebuild to get out, and we've done a soft rebuild. Both can work or fail.

(1 data point does not a trend make)
Statistical facts:
1. Where are we now - Death vally
2. Where are we trending - Nowhere ATM

Subjective influences
1. What does our list demographic suggest- improvement (hopefully)
2. What does our injury history suggest - improvement (hopefully)
3. What does the coaching suggest- improvement (hopefully)
4. What does recent performance suggest - improvement (hopefully, projections based on post bye formline only)


Can our rate of improvement reach escape velocity to get us out of death vally is still a solid maybe. Some of those subjectives need to shift into the fact realm in 2025 or the likelihood starts to decrease. In general though, if the subjectives are all on the up then it's a very good start but we can still fall short of contending.

After all that l think you're about right anyway.
GC should rise, but maybe not immediately.
Other teams below us shouldn't catch us next year, whilst Essendon and Melbourne are in big big trouble as they both in death vally and need a rebuild right now.

 

[HeavenlySources]

Any truth that Tom Hawkins will be at the club next year as a coach..?

Big get if that's the case, maybe he can show Max how to throw his weight around. I wonder is this an Enright connection paying off?

 

[HeavenlySources]

Haha Imagine we traded 7,8,9 for Harley Reid

 

[austinnn]

That analysis doesn't work. Our ability to project improvement of our own team is probably running below 50% accuracy, and our ability to project other clubs is lower again.
Take that already very low odds equation and add injuries, morale, tactics etc, etc and it becomes futile.
Generally all teams fit into 2 modes, both ending in rebuilds.
1. trends upwards over 5-10 years until they plateau then pop, then do a hard rebuild.
2. is death vally. Norff did a hard rebuild to get out, and we've done a soft rebuild. Both can work or fail.

(1 data point does not a trend make)
Statistical facts:
1. Where are we now - Death vally
2. Where are we trending - Nowhere ATM

Subjective influences
1. What does our list demographic suggest- improvement (hopefully)
2. What does our injury history suggest - improvement (hopefully)
3. What does the coaching suggest- improvement (hopefully)
4. What does recent performance suggest - improvement (hopefully, projections based on post bye formline only)


Can our rate of improvement reach escape velocity to get us out of death vally is still a solid maybe. Some of those subjectives need to shift into the fact realm in 2025 or the likelihood starts to decrease. In general though, if the subjectives are all on the up then it's a very good start but we can still fall short of contending.

After all that l think you're about right anyway.
GC should rise, but maybe not immediately.
Other teams below us shouldn't catch us next year, whilst Essendon and Melbourne are in big big trouble as they both in death vally and need a rebuild right now.

What do you think about Carlton?
It seems like they should make finals again next year, but something about the list seems lacking to me, and I'm really not convinced Voss is a good coach.

I'll fess up and say I hate them and would love them to fail, but that's not the reason I'm predicting their fall, they just seem like their luck might have just run out.

 

[Saints4ever]

What do you think about Carlton?
It seems like they should make finals again next year, but something about the list seems lacking to me, and I'm really not convinced Voss is a good coach.

I'll fess up and say I hate them and would love them to fail, but that's not the reason I'm predictably their fall, they just seem like their luck might have just run out.

Any team that has a spine of
Weitering
McGovern
Cripps
McKay
Curnow
Has the potential to be dangerous.

 

[austinnn]

Big get if that's the case, maybe he can show Max how to throw his weight around. I wonder is this an Enright connection paying off?

Funnily enough I proposed that during the home and away season, but I never thought there was much chance of it happening.

I'd be rapt if that rumour was proved correct. He would be a fantastic addition to the club, but I can't see him leaving the serenity of his farm.

 

[Significant]

Would have to be someone above us. That means Essendon trading 9 + Future 1st for 2/3. If that's the deal then we can easily swoop in and make a better offer to North or WC (8 + Future 1st For 2/3).

If Essendon List Management think about their situation they will understand there is only two options:

1) Take our deal
2) Call our bluff

They can't trade up, we have them over a barrel, they need to take our Future 1st for Pick 9 and hope we finish bottom 5 next year or risk losing their academy player who looks an electric prospect and is a positional need for them.

You forgot the other option - accept the nomination and take Kako.

 

[HeavenlySources]

You forgot the other option - accept the nomination and take Kako.

Haha yes, but then Pick 9 gets swallowed up when they could have just matched it with junk picks instead. That would be the worst possible outcome for them.

 

[CursingFijian]

Picks 2 & 3 are on the table, if Essendon have any inkling that Kako will be bid on early they will trade into one of those rather than take Pick 7 or 8.

 

[Michael Goodinski]

Who cares about Purples opinion? Bloke didn’t have sex for the first time until he was 27 years old

Funnily enough I proposed that during the home and away season, but I never thought there was much chance of it happening.

I'd be rapt if that rumour was proved correct. He would be a fantastic addition to the club, but I can't see him leaving the serenity of his farm.

Rumour has it he's playing on for Port Fairy.

 

[Michael Goodinski]

McLennan isnt big enough to play the role Battle did.

Most thought Battle wasn't big enough to play the role he did, but I have to agree with you. McLennan is around 190-1 isn't he? More of a flanker, methinks.

 

[beside the seaside]

McLennan isnt big enough to play the role Battle did.

Just looking and yeah he's a little shorter than I realised at 188, but he still seems to be more of an interceptor which I think Battle was.

 

[BrutThough]

He was an interceptor more than a proper one on one defender but you probably need some height cover as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we try to get another tall minder back to let Wilkie play a more loose intercept role. I think Wilkie could be even better with a less accountable role. Tom Stewart was so good because others could cover for him while he attacked the ball.

I'm not sure on that one. It took until rd21 until he had a defensive one-on-one loss. Would we really want to be moving someone that elite defensively into a role where they would be less accountable?

I think it's easier to other find or train up someone to intercept than it would be to find/train anyone to come close to Wilkie's defensive work.

 

[ScrappyDo]

What do you think about Carlton?
It seems like they should make finals again next year, but something about the list seems lacking to me, and I'm really not convinced Voss is a good coach.

I'll fess up and say I hate them and would love them to fail, but that's not the reason I'm predicting their fall, they just seem like their luck might have just run out.

It's hard to separate my own hatred. I don't know much about them tbh but l don't see a winning club or a worthy coach.

 

[Significant]

I'm not sure on that one. It took until rd21 until he had a defensive one-on-one loss. Would we really want to be moving someone that elite defensively into a role where they would be less accountable?

I think it's easier to other find or train up someone to intercept than it would be to find/train anyone to come close to Wilkie's defensive work.

Agreed, whilst Wilkie is a good interceptor, his one on one work is elite. Manoeuvring opponents under the ball legally - best in the league.

 

[Verdun]

Any truth that Tom Hawkins will be at the club next year as a coach..?

Not sure big Tom would make a good coach - strikes me as a great footballer (said begrudgingly as I still remember 2009) but dumb as a box of hammers not sure what he would have done if he wasn't a footballer.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Any team that has a spine of
Weitering
McGovern
Cripps
McKay
Curnow
Has the potential to be dangerous.

Free kick Charlie is key. He needs more free kicks and free kicks right through the finals, then extra free kicks in the GF.