2025

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I think we’ll need to be ruthless with list management.

Typically we turn over around 8 to 12 players - I think this year will be on the higher side given our results this year, our aging list, and us having a few extra players who covered LTI.

My guess is that this year we turn over around 11 players and they will be:

Murphy (retired)
Carmichael (retired)
Johnson (trade)
Begg
Steene
Markov
(He’s now depth)
Sidebottom (IIRC he’s the last 30+ player who doesn’t have a contract? We need to start turning over our aging players because we can’t have them all leaving at once - my guess is that we accept a junk pick to get him to his club of choice)
Krueger (Does a few nice things, but should be more reliable than what he is at this stage of his career)
Reef (Doesn’t bode well with him being switched to the back line a month before his contract is up)
Bytel (Role player who has shown dramatic improvement every week, but not able to win the footy, which at this stage of his career doesn’t make him a long term proposition)
Sullivan (Role player who is getting the best out of himself, but it looks like we’re preferring the bigger bodies Long for the extraction role)

I think 11 players is cutting too deep given our draft hand, how do we replace them all?

Imo, 2-3 players in the national draft, 1-2 in the rookie draft/ pre season drafts (really hope we don't pick 3 players in the pre season supplementary draft again...), 1-2 players through trade/ free agency so i'd be thinking more like 6-8 at the absolute max delistings

From your list I think Markov, Steene, Kreuger and maybe Reef will be retained for 1 more year
 
Markov’s extension was announced about two weeks ago. I reckon Steele plays on, Steene will get a deal.

I’d be very surprised if Reef re-signed. Melbourne were keen last year apparently. If any club proposes an improved role, he should take it.

I’m happy to trade Kreuger if it nets us Keane or Berry. I expect Eyre will be developed forward mostly if we get Keane, and the club have made it clear they want to take a tall in the draft.
 

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I think 11 players is cutting too deep given our draft hand, how do we replace them all?

Imo, 2-3 players in the national draft, 1-2 in the rookie draft/ pre season drafts (really hope we don't pick 3 players in the pre season supplementary draft again...), 1-2 players through trade/ free agency so i'd be thinking more like 6-8 at the absolute max delistings

From your list I think Markov, Steene, Kreuger and maybe Reef will be retained for 1 more year

We’re at least +1 in our list given we added 2 players mid season to cover Steen’s LTI and Murphy. Carmichael’s retirement somewhat offsets it but I doubt he’d have been in line for an extension anyway.
 
I think we’ll need to be ruthless with list management.

Typically we turn over around 8 to 12 players - I think this year will be on the higher side given our results this year, our aging list, and us having a few extra players who covered LTI.

My guess is that this year we turn over around 11 players and they will be:

Murphy (retired)
Carmichael (retired)
Johnson (trade)
Begg
Steene
Markov
(He’s now depth)
Sidebottom (IIRC he’s the last 30+ player who doesn’t have a contract? We need to start turning over our aging players because we can’t have them all leaving at once - my guess is that we accept a junk pick to get him to his club of choice)
Krueger (Does a few nice things, but should be more reliable than what he is at this stage of his career)
Reef (Doesn’t bode well with him being switched to the back line a month before his contract is up)
Bytel (Role player who has shown dramatic improvement every week, but not able to win the footy, which at this stage of his career doesn’t make him a long term proposition)
Sullivan (Role player who is getting the best out of himself, but it looks like we’re preferring the bigger bodies Long for the extraction role)
Steene is in late negotiations for a 1 year extension, so he's not going anywhere.
 
Markov’s extension was announced about two weeks ago. I reckon Steele plays on, Steene will get a deal.

I’d be very surprised if Reef re-signed. Melbourne were keen last year apparently. If any club proposes an improved role, he should take it.

I’m happy to trade Kreuger if it nets us Keane or Berry. I expect Eyre will be developed forward mostly if we get Keane, and the club have made it clear they want to take a tall in the draft.
Reef will sign on. Can't see him leaving.
 
I think we’ll need to be ruthless with list management.

Typically we turn over around 8 to 12 players - I think this year will be on the higher side given our results this year, our aging list, and us having a few extra players who covered LTI.

My guess is that this year we turn over around 11 players and they will be:

Murphy (retired)
Carmichael (retired)
Johnson (trade)
Begg
Steene
Markov
(He’s now depth)
Sidebottom (IIRC he’s the last 30+ player who doesn’t have a contract? We need to start turning over our aging players because we can’t have them all leaving at once - my guess is that we accept a junk pick to get him to his club of choice)
Krueger (Does a few nice things, but should be more reliable than what he is at this stage of his career)
Reef (Doesn’t bode well with him being switched to the back line a month before his contract is up)
Bytel (Role player who has shown dramatic improvement every week, but not able to win the footy, which at this stage of his career doesn’t make him a long term proposition)
Sullivan (Role player who is getting the best out of himself, but it looks like we’re preferring the bigger bodies Long for the extraction role)

Wouldnt be surprised if they try package Fin with Johnson or just trade separately
 
The loss of Nathan Murphy has been very underestimated.
Whilst I'm no fan of him, I think the club should get Keane back. He has no fear of throwing himself into contests and doesn't mind the rough stuff, just like Murph.
 
I think 11 players is cutting too deep given our draft hand, how do we replace them all?

Historically:

End of 2023: 11 players
End of 2022: 9 players
End of 2021: 9 players
End of 2020: 14 players
End of 2019: 6 players
End of 2018: 8 players
End of 2017: 7 players
End of 2016: 11 players
End of 2015: 12 players
End of 2014: 9 players
End of 2013: 14 players
End of 2012: 10 players
End of 2011: 10 players

The average looks to be about 10.

How many do you think we’ll lose this year, and who will they be?
 

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Historically:

End of 2023: 11 players
End of 2022: 9 players
End of 2021: 9 players
End of 2020: 14 players
End of 2019: 6 players
End of 2018: 8 players
End of 2017: 7 players
End of 2016: 11 players
End of 2015: 12 players
End of 2014: 9 players
End of 2013: 14 players
End of 2012: 10 players
End of 2011: 10 players

The average looks to be about 10.

How many do you think we’ll lose this year, and who will they be?
But think generally we have had more senior players OOC, this year its now dwindled down to 4 if you remove Steene, WHE and Howe. The rest are rookie listers.
 
Delisting or trading reef would be a big mistake imo. He’s not the finished product.

And 13 goals in 9 games where he has averaged only 54% game time is not a terrible return for a young forward.

Moreover there is potential to play him elsewhere like half back and in the midfield.

Likewise a big no to trading out any of McReery, Noble, Richards, etc… club needs to add youth to its list, not weaken it

Macrae on the other hand I would trade out if the option arose

but I doubt there will be many suitors and not worth trading him out for a measly 3rd round pick imo.

Persist with for another 12 months for the final year of his contract in the hope his disposal improves

Johnson should be moved on.

So too Krueger. But it will leave pies ordinary tall forward depth even worse off than where it is… so I’d keep Krueger for now. Perhaps try Krueger as a full back so as to improve depth in that role. He’s be too slow for some forwards but would keep up with Wrights, Walkers etc

With the pies 3rd round picks I’d be acquiring a cheap ready made mature midfielder and 190cm plus forward or defensive talent from others clubs VFL teams.

Players like Fiorini or Berry from Crows… who can’t crack the side only due to others being preferred instead

I think Sidebottom goes around again but of the over 30s… he’d be the only one I would retire this year so as to give youth like Allan, McReery, McInness more midfield minutes

The others still playing valuable roles

With the poor draft hand I’d only take 1-2 max in the draft.

Only take contested mids or talls. Club has enough outside and running players

Promote someone like Dean and/or Markov to the senior list to make the required 3 additions to senior list

As for Pies prospects in 2025… the draw will be easier, the preseason will be better in terms of players being hungry again after a poor 2024.

Kids like Allan, TJ, HDM, Parker, Smit… will be older, stronger, fitter and putting more pressure on incumbents

Injuries are always the key.

Keep the main 8-10 or so players on the field… and get a full year out of a mcstay, mihocek, Elliot, hill, Schulz forward line and the pies will certainly make the top 6 with ease ✅
 
Historically:

End of 2023: 11 players
End of 2022: 9 players
End of 2021: 9 players
End of 2020: 14 players
End of 2019: 6 players
End of 2018: 8 players
End of 2017: 7 players
End of 2016: 11 players
End of 2015: 12 players
End of 2014: 9 players
End of 2013: 14 players
End of 2012: 10 players
End of 2011: 10 players

The average looks to be about 10.

How many do you think we’ll lose this year, and who will they be?
Interesting, that is more than i thought it would have been

If it was up to me i would move on these players

  • Murphy (retired)
  • Carmichael (retired)
  • Sidebottom (retired)
  • Begg
  • Johnson
  • 3 of Bytel/ Long/ Sullivan/ Macare (don't really care who)

McInnes gets one final chance

Which makes 8 all up. Any more than that and i think it's too many to replace

I'd rather hold on to 1 of Long/ Sullivan/ Macrae/ Bytel and Kreuger as depth than pick up another couple of rookies/ pre season supplementary selection players who are unlikely to be ready for senior footy in 2025 and most likely be delisted in 2 years anyway
 
In my opinion the worst is getting into finals, especially top 4 and not winning a game.
What Melbourne has done for the past 2 years.
Look at them now - a decent playing list, crap coach and a gutted culture.

I wonder if Trac is gettable by another club?

I think making finals still adds valuable experience to playing group.

However finishing mid table on the way down (as opposed to after a rebuild which would be a positive) the ladder is a disaster year.
Very little benefit to it and often deludes people into think the teams "just" missing out.
 
I think we’ll need to be ruthless with list management.

Typically we turn over around 8 to 12 players - I think this year will be on the higher side given our results this year, our aging list, and us having a few extra players who covered LTI.

My guess is that this year we turn over around 11 players and they will be:

Murphy (retired)
Carmichael (retired)
Johnson (trade)
Begg
Steene
Markov
(He’s now depth)
Sidebottom (IIRC he’s the last 30+ player who doesn’t have a contract? We need to start turning over our aging players because we can’t have them all leaving at once - my guess is that we accept a junk pick to get him to his club of choice)
Krueger (Does a few nice things, but should be more reliable than what he is at this stage of his career)
Reef (Doesn’t bode well with him being switched to the back line a month before his contract is up)
Bytel (Role player who has shown dramatic improvement every week, but not able to win the footy, which at this stage of his career doesn’t make him a long term proposition)
Sullivan (Role player who is getting the best out of himself, but it looks like we’re preferring the bigger bodies Long for the extraction role)

I believe they think they can win it again and it was injury related drop off.

So on that note I don't see a massive cull 10 plus coming. 6-7 imo will likely be the number.

Murphy retire
Carmichael retire
Sidebottom retire (was our best on weekend funnily)
Begg delist
Johnson trade
Sullivan delist
Fin potential trade.
 
I think making finals still adds valuable experience to playing group.

However finishing mid table on the way down (as opposed to after a rebuild which would be a positive) the ladder is a disaster year.
Very little benefit to it and often deludes people into think the teams "just" missing out.
So, kinda like this year?
 
Does he bring their F/S prospects with him?
I was thinking about that aspect too, but they seem have most areas covered. F/S or not.

Richards, naughton I believe we could have got both.

Only glaring weaknesses they had were their backs.

I like the look of their list. We’ve done Pretty well from F/S and NGA too.
 
I was thinking about that aspect too, but they seem have most areas covered. F/S or not.

Richards, naughton I believe we could have got both.

Only glaring weaknesses they had were their backs.

I like the look of their list. We’ve done Pretty well from F/S and NGA too.

Could have had 1 or the other I think, but instead took Stevo with our only pick before them. Took Murphy with our pick after them.
 
So, kinda like this year?

Kinda but I meant with a better injury profile during the year. But yes this year was shiftless result. The Schultz trade makes it worse again.

Longer term this season without a doubt has ?? over it due to the amount of injuries and not just that but to who was injured.

I do think it could go either way due another year older for the older group.
 
Kinda but I meant with a better injury profile during the year. But yes this year was shiftless result. The Schultz trade makes it worse again.

Longer term this season without a doubt has ?? over it due to the amount of injuries and not just that but to who was injured.

I do think it could go either way due another year older for the older group.
Yup.
But worth one more roll of the dice
 

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