-
AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Adelaide's decline
- Thread starter Gavin Excell
- Start date
- Tagged users None
You will fit in well on the adelaide board....
Wow what a shitshow that trade was. Hamill the only one looking like a good afl player atm
There must be a lot of Crows players overpayed at that club considering the list they have versus the salary cap.
- Oct 16, 2016
- 9,157
- 18,363
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Not murphy
- Oct 16, 2016
- 9,157
- 18,363
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Bit of a disaster for both clubs haha. All that big talk and bravado for years and everyone involved in those trades turn out to be spuds. Hamil looks promising and I still have some hope for O Brien but other then that, nothing to write home about
TheKITC
Cancelled
Surely you jest? Adelaide would want Matt kicking as little as possible, let alone on his opposite foot. He has shocking foot skills to the point where opposition teams would almost be cheering for him to get kicks.
You are totally overlooking De Koning in this. There is always an inherent risk with draft picks, but he looks to have a very bright future as a ruck/forward (or vice versa). Both he and O'Brien are project players who have plenty of time and improvement left in them, not sure why you are expecting draft picks to be guns in the formative years of their careers. It's so far from a 'disaster' it's almost laughable. Kennedy looks to have come on in the little we have seen him this season too. The bits we also used to get McGovern makes the deal very nice for us, he is playing and will continue to play an important role. Extremely comfortable where it sits for Carlton and would do the deal again in a heart beat.
Will Hamill looks like one of the few good young players Adelaide have. Sure he needs to tidy up a couple of things, but he looks good. Obviously the Gibbs end of thing has been an outright disaster for them though...
TheKITC
Cancelled
Haven't written him off at all. Pretty hard to comment on a first year player who has barely laced his boots up, especially in a KP... In fact I mentioned that recently drafted players need time before judgements are passed on them, so quite the opposite.
Adelaide have a good record with KPDers. Other than that, wait and see situation.
When Carlton traded pick 16 to the Bulldogs (and 40) they received - pick 28 (Kennedy), 30 (De Koning) and a future second-round draft selection (which was coupled with the future second rounder received directly from the Crows in the Gibbs trade to secure McGovern).
I appreciate many Crows supporters aren't aware of this, but they're just the facts.
- May 23, 2016
- 771
- 922
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
- Other Teams
- Port Melbourne; Kalkee; Horsham Demons
That's utter rubbish, Saints dominated for all but the second half of the third quarter and 5 minutes in the last. Adelaide were flattered by some absolutely insane free kick decisions, were never going to win.
Ok, well outside of centre clearances the stats tell a different story, but there really is no point getting into a slinging match over this (especially on the umpiring as it was bad for both sides) as we are both clearly biased and it doesn’t matter anyway as the Saints won and that won’t change.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 14,635
- 17,160
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Liverpool
My 2 cents. The tabloid soap opera playing out in the media has not been the club's finest hour, but is more a distraction than anything. The primary driving factors behind our decline are pretty simple when you think about it.
1. Natural decline of the older players who have formed the core of our list for the last decade.
2. The hole in the age profile of our list for players in their mid-20s who should be replacing them.
We also had an uncharacteristically poor draft in 2016 (Gallucci, Poholke, Himmelberg, Signorello, Davis, Shaw, Jarman).
These players would all be aged 22-26 now and in or entering the prime of their careers, and would have been there supporting the likes of Brad and Matt Crouch in carrying the team through this period.
Focusing on the players we've traded out, there's no doubt we'd be in a better position in 2020 had we retained them all, but that's only half the story.
1. Natural decline of the older players who have formed the core of our list for the last decade.
This is to be expected. After a period at the top, it's our turn at the bottom of the pile. However, this has been compounded by..
2. The hole in the age profile of our list for players in their mid-20s who should be replacing them.
Reasons for this fit predominantly under 2 categories:
a) not up to scratch and delisted, or
b) traded out and replaced with draftees who are not quite ready to make an impact yet.
2012 draft (*Tippett sanctions, no first or second round picks): Siggins, Atkins, Callinan, Joyce, Hartigan, Osborn, Klaosen
2013 draft: M. Crouch, Knight, Cameron, Battersby, Kelly, Spina
2014 draft: Lever, Wigg, McGovern, Dear, O'Brien, Ramsay, Wilson
2015 draft: Milera, Doedee, Hunter, Beech, Greenwood, Keath
We also had an uncharacteristically poor draft in 2016 (Gallucci, Poholke, Himmelberg, Signorello, Davis, Shaw, Jarman).
These players would all be aged 22-26 now and in or entering the prime of their careers, and would have been there supporting the likes of Brad and Matt Crouch in carrying the team through this period.
Focusing on the players we've traded out, there's no doubt we'd be in a better position in 2020 had we retained them all, but that's only half the story.
- If we had matched or exceeded the $$$ those players were being offered, I'm sure many of them would have stayed (I wish Ricciuto hadn't aired the dirty laundry in public like he did but he's right, people are kidding themselves if they think money had nothing to do with it).
- So what would that have looked like? $700-800k apiece for Cameron, Lever and McGovern; $600k for Keath, $400k for Greenwood - that's over $3 million a season. Would tying up a quarter of our salary cap in those 5 players have been a sensible list management strategy?
- Also worth remembering that in trading them out, the capital of those players has been shifted into the first and second rounds of the 2017-2020 drafts where we've ended up with some of the strongest draft hands we've ever had as a club. The benefits of this are yet to be realised.
Last edited:
First time I have thought of Lochie O'Brien for a while. I remember in his draft year he was linked to the Swans but his very very low contested possessions figure concerned me a lot. He doesn't seem to have done much at Carlton though I am sure Carlton fans would know a lot more about why than I do.
- Sep 25, 2013
- 16,122
- 31,139
He will benefit from playing in a winning side, or atleast a competitive one. Was always going to be a slow burn considering his size and uncontested style. Have no doubt he becomes a reasonable AFL player but anything more is a huge wait and see. Funnily enough Fogarty was the one most Blues fans wanted at the time IIRC.
As I've said before, I think Adelaide's problem, which has been a problem for a while has been their fairly one-dimensional midfield. The Crouch brothers, while okay individually are too similar to each other. Sloane also isn't that extra point of difference as he mainly succeeds through grunt, not polish. Guys like Atkins and Laird can't do much if the midfield isn't cooking.
Their good season in 2017 was IMO built on the back of really good forward play by one of the best forwardlines in the league. Betts, Walker, Lynch, Cameron and Jenkins was a fairly good forwardline especially when games were being played on their terms. Problem is, Jenkins has been found out as a HFF in a KPFs' body who beats up on weak sides, and Walker and Betts have declined due to form and age. Cameron has left the building. I think for a side to be regularly performing it needs to rely on good midfield play, not hoping for a forwardline to get hot.
Adelaide have often been a team which overachieves. I remember around 2005-2006, their midfield wasn't in any way elite yet they still were up the top of the ladder, only to struggle during finals against better sides. They lost two finals against West Coast because the eagles' midfielders were just better. They need to develop a midfield which is varied.
Their good season in 2017 was IMO built on the back of really good forward play by one of the best forwardlines in the league. Betts, Walker, Lynch, Cameron and Jenkins was a fairly good forwardline especially when games were being played on their terms. Problem is, Jenkins has been found out as a HFF in a KPFs' body who beats up on weak sides, and Walker and Betts have declined due to form and age. Cameron has left the building. I think for a side to be regularly performing it needs to rely on good midfield play, not hoping for a forwardline to get hot.
Adelaide have often been a team which overachieves. I remember around 2005-2006, their midfield wasn't in any way elite yet they still were up the top of the ladder, only to struggle during finals against better sides. They lost two finals against West Coast because the eagles' midfielders were just better. They need to develop a midfield which is varied.
- Oct 17, 2011
- 8,550
- 16,331
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
I've written the points a little incorrectly it was mean't to be "B) Actually BE ABLE TO use his right foot to kick."
Completely agree that his disposal by foot is horrible & exploited by other teams but boy he doesn't help himself by running onto his opposite & getting stuck trying to go back onto his dominant anyway.
FTFY.
No doubt your club is in a bad position, but it also had some bad luck with the tippet sanctions in addition to key players always leaving. Having just Danger in your team now would make a huge difference but he left next to nothing and Geelong get a once in a generation player which keeps them in finals contention for an extended period.
I think people seriously understatement the tippet sanctions. With Tippet you lost 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders in a 2 year period, In addition to losing tippett for nothing (with sydney being able to pick him up for nothing in the pre season draft). This happened in 2012 so in the scenario that it never happened you are missing 4 players who would be 26 years of age (which would be 2x 1st and 2x 2nd rounders) from those 2 drafts and in reality a another first round pick which is what a forward tippett should be worth.
In addition no club barring Gold Coast and GWS have lost the players you have, with names like Phil Davis, Danger, Tippett, Mcgovern, Lever and Cameron all leaving. Now not sure why they all left and agree with some of the older guys like Jenkins and Betts being allowed to leave.
This rebuild was coming for a while and was always going to be painful with massive gaps on the list with losing those picks from 2012.
- Thread starter
- #948
He won't be leaving
- Aug 18, 2009
- 14,635
- 17,160
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Liverpool
Dangerfield is the only one on that list who I would believe if he said hand on heart money was not the primary motive for his move. These guys were all getting huge offers which I don’t blame them for accepting, I’d do the same. The fact is it was unrealistic for us to match them all under the cap with the list we had.
Tex, Talia, Sloane, Danger, Tippett, Lever, McGovern, Davis all on $700k+, Jacobs and Betts on big money too, what club could have afforded to retain that many players commanding that sort of coin? You mentioned GWS, there are some parallels.
I think you got our midfield and forwards mixed up from 05 and 06. Our midfield was elite with the likes of Roo, Goodwin, Edwards and co, but our forward line consisted of McGregor, Perrie and Welsh. The midfield and defense is why we did so well in those years, they could’ve made any forward line look decent.
Similar threads
