Autopsy AFL 2022 Round 23 - Carlton v Collingwood Sun August 21st 3:20pm EST (MCG)

[Fadge]

Just leave him be, poor kid got owned by some Collingwood supporters in last week's match day thread and can't get over it

That's one impressive effort - getting owned in a Match Day Thread despite your team leading comfortably all day and 'thrashing' us.

 

[SuperSub17]

How many games does the winner score 1.5 times more than their opponent?
Closer to many or few?

5/9 games last week, so I’m going to guess it’s slightly more often than you think it is. Certainly more than 0.4%.

Again, the statistical difference between 150 and some number over 150 is almost negligible because 150 is already more than 3 standard deviations from the mean. (Within 3 standard deviations of the mean lies 99.6% of values).

Lolwut?
Where are you pulling these numbers from?
What value is the standard deviation?
When the mean is 100, 167 is a very different number to 150.

And then, when you raise that probability to the power of 22, what are the odds of doing it over an entire season?

What I said was that I would ignore Collingwood's percentage in favour of Geelong's because Geelong won the flag.

Right, so I’m going to ignore Sydney’s oh-so-impressive 1.5x score because they haven’t won anything yet, is that how this works?
Or is it only when it suits you?

 

[Corn Cobbers]

5/9 games last week, so I’m going to guess it’s slightly more often than you think it is. Certainly more than 0.4%.


Lolwut?
Where are you pulling these numbers from?
What value is the standard deviation?
When the mean is 100, 167 is a very different number to 150.

And then, when you raise that probability to the power of 22, what are the odds of doing it over an entire season?


Right, so I’m going to ignore Sydney’s oh-so-impressive 1.5x score because they haven’t won anything yet, is that how this works?
Or is it only when it suits you?

It's pure rubbish, the statistical version of "psychobabble"

 

[SuperSub17]

It's pure rubbish, the statistical version of "psychobabble"

I call it pseudo intelligence, throwing some random numbers around to try and sound important.

So basically David King.

 

[SuperSub17]

Basic stats.
Mean without standard deviation doesn't mean a great deal. (no pun intended).

If the mean is 100 and the standard deviation is 15 then 150 is off the charts.
3 x 15 = 45. 100 + 45 = 145. 100 -45 = 55.
99.6% of values lie between 55 and 145.
At a guess I reckon the standard deviation is probably closer to 10. Which makes 150 even further off the charts and thereby makes the difference between 150 and 167 even more negligible. That's not opinion, that's stats. Stats don't have emotions, they don't care about your feelings. They are what they are.






The result (including the margin) was actually predicted by many of the models out their in stats land.
There was a discussion about this before the game, Swans were 73% chance of winning pre-game. But the nuffy Pies supporters were all "we wun 11nz in a row bla-bla-bla, why are the bookies so cruel and have us at $3.70 waa-waaa-waaaa-waaa"

No point thrashing the Pies in R22 if it all amounts to nought. Twas a good win, against a so-so team, nothing to get carried away about.
When we come up against a real contender, we'll have a better idea of where we sit in the pecking order.

Using Pie supporter logic...Pies beat Melbourne, Melbourne beat Carlton = Pies are better. bla -bla-bla
Blues beat Swans, Swans thrashed Pies, Blues should at minimum thrash Pies.

Putting aside all of that and just offering my own opinion, IMO, Blues are a far superior team to Pies.

My god you have no idea, just stop talking about things you’re obviously clueless about.

Where on earth did 15 come from? Did you pull it out of your backside? And no, a smaller standard deviation means the bigger the relative difference between two data points—which is pretty basic.

In any event, you still haven’t answered the initial question: why you think one result is as impressive as 22 consecutive games of that same result. Because it isn’t.

The rest of your post is just childish dribble that just shows even less understanding of basic probability.

 

[Oldmangrumpy]

Heard a very good analysis from a few ppl today.
The wash up was Carlton threw everything at Melbourne last week and came up short.
That is very mentally challenging as they played for their lives.
Usually in finals a team does that and the emotional energy spent doesn’t come through the following week, ie elimination finalists that win typically go down the week after.
Collingwood were stymied by a smaller ground hindering their natural outside run.
They did however get 21 inside 50’s in the last but had no room to use it due to confinement and great defence by Sydney.
I’m tipping the pies, against my better judgment because Carlton have done the trick when it matters so often over my 40 plus years of seeing these 2 great teams play.
Purely on emotional energy spent by the blues last week

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Doesn't need to be normally distributed.
Use Chebyshev's theorem to turn any distribution into a normal distribution.

Thread ban is long overdue Chief Wosh

 

[Fadge]

Round 1 there was 1.
Round 2 there was 2.

So 11% and 22%.

A little closer than 40% to your estimation of 2.5%, but....

 

[Thrawn]

Use Chebyshev's theorem to turn any distribution into a normal distribution.

Can Chebyshev turn your post distribution into a normal footy talk distribution? That'd be swell.

 

[Thrawn]

Anyway, Hewett's been named as an in but I doubt he plays. Back injuries are a week by week proposition, but who the hell knows.

 

[beerbandit]

Nerd Alert!

 

[Number37]

Thread ban is long overdue Chief Wosh

Chief Wosh
Not allowed to discuss the Pies form in a Pies game thread?

 

[Toddy86]

Is this the Collingwood v Sydney chat?

Anyway f*** the pies! Blues by 30

 

[Blues_Man]

Just offloaded a gorilla on big Mason Cox to snag the first sausage roll at 251.

Wish me luck.

Wanna buy a Bridge ?

 

[Oldmangrumpy]

Blues throwing it all in, too many guys who have missed games in the mix.
Desperation is showing in a-massive way.
Masterpiece or no legs in the last?
Time will tell.

 

[Blues_Man]

I am not sure why Carlton supporters are so confident. They weren’t great against Melbourne and Collingwood play in incredibly well at the MCG as it suits their style. Collingwood have the backline to hold the Carlton forwards, the Carlton midfield is a bit short on personnel like Collingwood, and I think the Collingwood forwards are very underrated.

I’d be backing Collingwood here by 4-6 goals.

Yes but you have shown over the years that you simply have NFI

 

[Fadge]

Blues throwing it all in, too many guys who have missed games in the mix.
Desperation is showing in a-massive way.
Masterpiece or no legs in the last?
Time will tell.

They haven't played in enough big games to understand you can't play too many underdone players in big games...

 

[Blues_Man]

Stocker is apparently a star.. but still don't know what he looks like. But yeah.. apparently.. keep your eye on him.

Not sure if Henry is gonna get a gig this week.. but he's a star in the making. Similar type to Curnow. Henry is a more dangerous player though.. a Marco Van Basten type.. whereas Curnow is more your Donny Van Der Beek type. If they were both playing in the same side as KPF's.. Henry would be the Mav.. Curnow the Goose.

You've got De Goey and Cripps. Cripps is past his used by date. De Goey is in the now mate. De Goey a longer more penetrating kick. More ballistic with his movement. Can snag an important sausage roll. Cripps.. great for the Blues I suppose.

Nick Daicos and Sammy Walsh. Walsh suits Carlton's game plan. Close your eyes and knock it into the forward 50 and hope Curnow and Harry get their hands on the pill for the sausage roll. Nick is a lot more skilful a player. Epitomises what Collingwood's about. Doesn't get nervous or anxious out there.. critically thinks his way through it.. creative.. imaginative.. spontaneous.. lives for the kairos.. for the moment mate.. that's it mate.. forget about it mate.

Now.. how's that for a piece of literature mate.. that's it mate.. forget about it mate.

You'll enjoy the game a lot more if you supported Collingwood not Carlton by the way.

And don't forget to take a Sherrin with you back home.

Somebody is gonna be like a kid who realises there's no Santa Claus after this finals series

 

[Blues_Man]

Majority of my family are going to the game, so I’m either stuck spending Sunday with my wife, or I can send her off with the credit card to the shops so I can watch the game in peace.

I took out a second credit card during the week.

= I couldn't get the parole officer to get my ankle bracelet off for Sunday arvo.

 

[Blues_Man]

Blues throwing it all in, too many guys who have missed games in the mix.
Desperation is showing in a-massive way.
Masterpiece or no legs in the last?
Time will tell.

Pies rushing Ginnyvann the ducker in, is a desperate measure. they are very very worried. and so they should be

 

[BringouttheGimp]

When is someone gonna come up with stats for the shit that really matters mate.. evading a defender.. movement off of the ball.. timing.. blazing away at the big sticks.. taking that extra bounce when needed.. playing a mad diagonal horizontal inverted ball across the pitch.. a Curnow or a Henry taking the Mickey out of their opponents with their athletic abilities.. the ability to mentally pitch where your teammates opponents are on the field and creating a work of art mate.. you can have a good efficiency stat right.. but what difference does it make if it's a lil dinky di Noble like handball to the bloke next to ya.. it's useless re. You hold on to it.. Daicos IQ like.. and instead of handballing it to the bloke next to ya.. you know Moore is got a sense of what you're up to.. he makes the run.. then you handball it to him.. then off he goes mate.. where are the stats for plays like that mate.. reading and understanding the game mate.. these David King stats.. a lot of em are half arsed I reckon and that man..

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Pies just need to win four on the trot by under two goals now, and will be premiers.

But Carlton fans would be able to console themselves that the Pies would be one of the "worst" premiership teams, and that the Carlton list was better and has more early draft picks.

The only thing Collingwood can do this year is equal Carlton’s deep and rich history of premiership success. I'm not sure they have another four arsey wins in them to do so but time will tell.

 

[Fadge]

The only thing Collingwood can do this year is equal Carlton’s deep and rich history of premoerdhip success. I'm not sure they have another four arsey wins in them to do so but time will tell.

Say that again?

Has it been that long you've forgotten how to spell it?

 

[Corn Cobbers]

The only thing Collingwood can do this year is equal Carlton’s deep and rich history of premoerdhip success.

Na it's the other way around

AFL Premierships:
Collingwood 2
Carlton 1

No one cares about your state league flags, ancient history in another competition

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Say that again?

Has it been that long you've forgotten how to spell it?

Christ. I'll keep the ipad in landscape mode next time.