Autopsy AFL 2023 First Qualifying Final - Pies v Demons Thurs Sept 7th 7:20pm EST (MCG)

[Chief Ten Beers]

Pies have been average the past month.

Dees have not.

Pies have one game plan- dees have more gears they can go to.

Dees will win.

This is the level of analysis David King used to do 10 years ago. Well done.

 

[danster168]

No - the McStay that humbled May in the finals last year.
And the in form Ginnivan, who has been poor all year.
Much like your Macdonald who is now in selection calculations.
Anything else?

how the he is ginnivan in form? 1 decent game against a pathetic essendon?

 

[danster168]

Pies by 5 points. Elliott to kick the winning goal after the siren.

Dees forward line in shambles. Watched them live versus Carlton a few weeks ago. Unimpressive team.

unimpressive team that smashed you last time. makes sense...

 

[YeoShuey]

I went to the KB match and the Dees were the better side. Since then I think the Pies form has dipped and Melbourne will have Oliver & Fritsch this time around. Close game but the Dees to pull away by a few goals when it counts.

Why do you say Fritsch “this time around” like he didn’t kick multiple goals in the KB match? He was playing and the only big change they could make to their side is Oliver.

Compared to Collingwood who will bring in De Goey, Sidebottom, Howe, McStay, Elliott, Ginnivan compared to KB.

 

[YeoShuey]

unimpressive team that smashed you last time. makes sense...

Not impressive to smash a team and win by less than a goal in the end tbh. Melbourne did look superior that match, but the stats suggest otherwise that the teams were quite even, even though it didn’t look like that.

 

[Numero 31]

Why do you say Fritsch “this time around” like he didn’t kick multiple goals in the KB match? He was playing and the only big change they could make to their side is Oliver.

Compared to Collingwood who will bring in De Goey, Sidebottom, Howe, McStay, Elliott, Ginnivan compared to KB.

Correct. Fritsch was there for KB, my bad.

The other big change is that the Dees are actually in better form than they were in June whilst the Pies are the opposite.

 

[No SPIN]

how the he is ginnivan in form? 1 decent game against a pathetic essendon?

Much like TMac

 

[YeoShuey]

Correct. Fritsch was there for KB, my bad.

The other big change is that the Dees are actually in better form than they were in June whilst the Pies are the opposite.

You’d hope so given that they are at full strength with their team with hardly any injury. I don’t necessarily agree though - their June form was better to me, but I think that’s the same for every top team.

 

[danster168]

Much like TMac

huh? TMac is a spud. I never said anything about TMac being good. You mentioned Ginnivan.

 

[danster168]

You’d hope so given that they are at full strength with their team with hardly any injury. I don’t necessarily agree though - their June form was better to me, but I think that’s the same for every top team.

don't underestimate Petty and Melksham. Petty especially is a massive out for us. It changes our whole structure.

 

[YeoShuey]

don't underestimate Petty and Melksham. Petty especially is a massive out for us. It changes our whole structure.

Worth highlighting that neither of them played on KB. Interesting enough.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Just like your ignoring seasons form, which have pies clear of Melbourne by a few games. We can cherry pick stats all we want, but come Thursday week it will all mean nothing.

Ladder position means very little between Collingwood and Melbourne now.

Who wins moves forward, who losers plays this years premier

 

[CCurnow3votes]

This is the level of analysis David King used to do 10 years ago. Well done.

Thanks - I liked his earlier work.

 

[No SPIN]

huh? TMac is a spud. I never said anything about TMac being good. You mentioned Ginnivan.

Good to know - maybe tell your mates who are talking about his return.

 

[No SPIN]

I think Collingwood’s lack of physicality and general softness will see them done in this one. Demons easily.

And who exactly are the tough guys at Melb, we can’t match?

 

[Sweeetleftfoot]

Ladder position means very little between Collingwood and Melbourne now.

Who wins moves forward, who losers plays this years premier

Swans could get it done, they do have an easy kill first up.

 

[Fadge]

And who exactly are the tough guys at Melb, we can’t match?

Obviously the newbies who haven't been owned by Collingwood for the past 5 years...

 

[Jimi]

Obviously the newbies who haven't been owned by Collingwood for the past 5 years...

There's a lot of low quality banter in this thread old chaps! It's going to take a much better effort than this to reignite footy's OG rivalry.

On to the game and what a match up! A genuine 50/50 contest in front of 90,000+ at the G. So excited to see Dees vs Pies in a final. Am expecting to see the MCC chock-a-bloc with old fogeys in their blazers cheering on for number 5 and that boy with the tattoos etc. Expect there to be a lot of text messages to the ground staff for antisocial behaviour from this lot clashing with the great unwashed.

If Daicos was playing I think Collingwood might have a slight edge but as it stands, I'm tipping the Dees to win the midfield battle and dominate Dee 50 which is where finals tend to be won. Not so confident about the Melbourne forward line but when we're up and about bulk goals tend to come no matter the personnel. The last quarter and a half vs Sydney had shades of Melbourne 2021 and was the first time all year we've played the sort of football that won us a flag.

Could see this coming down to the wire, but Dees fitness and form line again gives them a slight edge. Chalk and cheese to where they were this time last season.

Look for Collingwood to come raring out of the blocks and be leading at half time. Can they rediscover some of their early season form? You would hope so for the long suffering fans.

Will the two wounded warriors Fritsch and Moore line up on each other again?

Have the Pies worked out a plan B since the Kings Birthday? On that day the Demons pressure stifled Collingwood's running game and only poor efficiency kept the Pies in it. Pies have a lot of players back in the side after that game, but their systemic breakdown must've given their coaching department pause.

Look for Collingwood to tag or negate Viney. Reckon if you shut him down you go a long way towards beating Melbourne. He's in great nick currently.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Not sure if this has been discussed but when was the last time a team lost 3/5 of the last H&A games and won the flag? Pies recent form is very ordinary and the final win VS an insipid Bombers means little.

Melbourne for me

 

[Fadge]

Not sure if this has been discussed but when was the last time a team lost 3/5 of the last H&A games and won the flag? Pies recent form is very ordinary and the final win VS an insipid Bombers means little.

Melbourne for me

Great point.

I don't think anyone had considered or mentioned that!

 

[Young Redleg]

Pies by 5 points. Elliott to kick the winning goal after the siren.

Dees forward line in shambles. Watched them live versus Carlton a few weeks ago. Unimpressive team.

We were nowhere near as 'unimpressive' as your mob was against Carlton.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Not sure if this has been discussed but when was the last time a team lost 3/5 of the last H&A games and won the flag? Pies recent form is very ordinary and the final win VS an insipid Bombers means little.

Melbourne for me

Damn that means I'll have to spend the whole night looking for one

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Fitzroy in 1916

 

[No SPIN]

We were nowhere near as 'unimpressive' as your mob was against Carlton.

Funny that Dees fans are making the point inaccuracy cost them a bigger win on KB.
But Coll’s inaccuracy against Carlton doesn’t count.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Swans could get it done, they do have an easy kill first up.

I see what you’ve done there!

Bring on the bloody footy!