Autopsy AFL 2024 First Qualifying Final - Swans v GWS Sat Sept 7th 3:20pm EST (SCG) - Teams in OP

[SBD Gonzalez]

Swans are still my tip for the flag.
Main question is whether they can find enough ways to score under finals pressure with a relatively weak forward mix.

I actually don’t think that’s our likely weakness. We have had multiple goal scorers all season, Luke Parker is looking very strong when he’s playing forward, and we’re expecting Papley back.

Highest Points For this season, 71 ahead of the next highest.

I think our potential vulnerability is our undersized defence. We are already only 7th best for Points Against and though there some great players down back, they are very dependent on our midfield and forwards not allowing too much action come their way in the first place.

 

[balldman]

GWS have played Sydney in 3 finals, as the away team each time, and won, in the last 8 years.

Yep. GWS the Away team @ ANZ Stadium next door to THEIR home ground, in 2016, when we finished top of the ladder, & then went on to play a semi at the SCG. The Away team @UTAS Stadium in Launceston in 2021 . I'll give you 2018.,Swans were putrid that day. But you would be more correct in saying the lower ranked team, which is the case again this year.BTW , how have the Giants gone against us the last 3 meetings - home OR away?

 

[Colonial]

Yep. GWS the Away team @ ANZ Stadium next door to THEIR home ground, in 2016, when we finished top of the ladder, & then went on to play a semi at the SCG. The Away team @UTAS Stadium in Launceston in 2021 . I'll give you 2018.,Swans were putrid that day. But you would be more correct in saying the lower ranked team, which is the case again this year.BTW , how have the Giants gone against us the last 3 meetings - home OR away?

His comment hit the mark it seems.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

H2H record in Finals:

• QF (2016) = Sydney 55-91 GWS
• EF (2018) = Sydney 30-79 GWS
• EF (2021) = Sydney 73-74 GWS

GWS leads the H2H record 3-0.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Straight sets Swans - GWS by 35

Yeah, after that Port game, I'm convinced they're finished, they only won against non-finalists after that Port 112 point loss. I think Brisbane will meet them in the semi final at The SCG and beat them.

 

[maskmcgee]

expect the Giants to turn it on for finals

GWS have won atvleast 1 final in every finals series they've played in.

 

[ScrewInStuds]

Yeah, after that Port game, I'm convinced they're finished, they only won against non-finalists after that Port 112 point loss. I think Brisbane will meet them in the semi final at The SCG and beat them.

Those teams are non-finalists because we beat them...

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Those teams are non-finalists because we beat them...

They're non-finalists not because of just 2 games, but the entire season they were all flaky. Even recently, they're out of form not just losing to Sydney, but other teams, and Adelaide weren't making finals even if they had beat Sydney twice. Collingwood and Adelaide were 4 wins and 5 losses, the last 9 matches, along with Essendon being 2 wins and 7 losses. I don't see Sydney beating an in form finalist team.

 

[The King!]

They're non-finalists not because of just 2 games, but the entire season they were all flaky. Even recently, they're out of form not just losing to Sydney, but other teams, and Adelaide weren't making finals even if they had beat Sydney twice. Collingwood and Adelaide were 4 wins and 5 losses, the last 9 matches, along with Essendon being 2 wins and 7 losses. I don't see Sydney beating an in form finalist team.

Fair enough , it's true we didn't beat anyone above us as well.

But yeah you are entitled to your opinion, will be interesting for sure.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Fair enough , it's true we didn't beat anyone above us as well.

But yeah you are entitled to your opinion, will be interesting for sure.

I'm interested to see if they prove me wrong and overcome their purple patch against the finalist teams, I was really convinced they were finished with the Port game, after I thought they were a shoe in for the premiership midway through the season.

 

[ScrewInStuds]

They're non-finalists not because of just 2 games, but the entire season they were all flaky. Even recently, they're out of form not just losing to Sydney, but other teams, and Adelaide weren't making finals even if they had beat Sydney twice. Collingwood and Adelaide were 4 wins and 5 losses, the last 9 matches, along with Essendon being 2 wins and 7 losses. I don't see Sydney beating an in form finalist team.

That's fine, you're entitled to your opinion, and I actually feel more confident the more that we're written off / talked down (as we suck at being front-runners).

I personally think that the team that finished top of the ladder, has a clean bill of health, and best record against the other top 8 teams this year has at least some chance of winning a home final.

 

[The King!]

I'm interested to see if they prove me wrong and overcome their purple patch against the finalist teams, I was really convinced they were finished with the Port game, after I thought they were a shoe in for the premiership midway through the season.

Yep I was at the Crows game and saw some positives, I think the last three weeks got the winning feeling back, but you are right they can't play at the ho hum level in finals.

I think we will win this week , but I am one eyed.

 

[Mr Meow]

That's fine, you're entitled to your opinion, and I actually feel more confident the more that we're written off / talked down (as we suck at being front-runners).

I personally think that the team that finished top of the ladder, has a clean bill of health, and best record against the other top 8 teams this year has at least some chance of winning a home final.

It's just a couple of people on BigFooty.

Sydney will have to do it as front runners as they are premiership favourites.

They should win this and then will be stronger premiership favourites. It's a 2014 style year for them but without a scary Hawthorn 2014 type challenger.

 

[Orange crush]

It's just a couple of people on BigFooty.

Sydney will have to do it as front runners as they are premiership favourites.

They should win this and then will be stronger premiership favourites. It's a 2014 style year for them but without a scary Hawthorn 2014 type challenger.

Except for the scary hawthorn challenger

 

[Mr Meow]

Except for the scary hawthorn challenger

2014 Hawks would belt them by 80 points.

 

[The King!]

2014 Hawks would belt them by 80 points.

Doubt it, some of them are over 40 by a fair way now.

 

[Mr Meow]

Doubt it, some of them are over 40 by a fair way now.

Hodge would still deck all of their small forwards by quarter time.

 

[The King!]

Hodge would still deck all of their small forwards by quarter time.

Yeah sure thing

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeah sure thing

Strong comment to follow an outstanding joke.

Very Horse-like. Dry.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Got my email for the Giants ballot... Sheesh forgot that if they win this week it's time to register!

 

[StillAtLarge]

Feel like this might be the least competitive game out of all the finals. Swans by plenty

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Feel like this might be the least competitive game out of all the finals. Swans by plenty

In our short history of finals together they have the wood on us, and that’s not nothing.

But given our big ins, and given our record against them this year, I am cautiously optimistic that we are going to put them away this time.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

BTW do people realise that since the dawn of the AFL era, this will be only the fifth time that a final is a local derby?

Three of the previous ones have been Swans/Giants.

Only other time was Port/Crows in 2005.

WC and Freo have never met in a final, and GC have yet to even make it to the finals.

 

[NetworkNerd]

BTW do people realise that since the dawn of the AFL era, this will be only the fifth time that a final is a local derby?

Three of the previous ones have been Swans/Giants.

Only other time was Port/Crows in 2005.

WC and Freo have never met in a final, and GC have yet to even make it to the finals.

To be fair its not West Coast fault. In 2015 both prelims were in Perth setting the scene for an amazing all WA grand final. Freo choked.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

To be fair its not West Coast fault. In 2015 both prelims were in Perth setting the scene for an amazing all WA grand final. Freo choked.

I think any local derby GF would be an insane event and would be a huge breakthrough in the true nationalisation of the game.