Autopsy AFL 2024 Second Elimination Final - Dogs v Hawks Fri Sept 6th 7:40pm EST (MCG) - Teams in OP

[nahnah]

I think this will be a blowout I’m just not sure which way

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Dogs fans forgetting they got smacked by a BOG average Crows side just over a fortnight ago on a ground very similar to MCG dimensions.
The games not at marvel in front of 23k dogs fans.

Hawthorn been playing in front of massive crowds all year.

Can the dogs keep up with the young Hawks?

Can the Hawks handle the big Dogs forwards?

Yep, and we still have premiership players, and players who played in a GF, three years ago, so what.

 

[jwint43]

Looking forward to this one, probably the two most in form teams and the only game in Melb in Week 1 of the finals will add to the hype. Should be 90k and a great atmosphere

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Hard to get a read on how this one will play out. Hawthorn, with the exception of Chol and Breust will be unchanged from the two teams previous encounter. Assuming Day gets up. The dogs however will be a vastly different outfit with six changes, assuming they keep the same line up that beat GWS last week.

Yep and we won’t lose Libba to concussion from a kick in the head from a Hawks player, who never got penalised. Nice that Jones is playing, a bit of karma there.

 

[Delisted]

Will be hard to stop Bont and Co. Hawks by 11 goals.

 

[Arkangel]

People who seem confident that the winner wins the whole thing are underestimating the difference in advantage between finishing 4th and 5th.
There's a good reason that only once this century a team has won from outside the 4 and that with the bookies, the Dogs and Hawks are 6th and 7th favourite respectively.

Pound for pound I think the bottom 4 of the 8 are as good as the Top 4 but you have to play 4 weeks in a row and likely a couple at least on enemy territory.

Not to be a pessimist but it will probably be a great game but the winner goes out next week to Port/Cats.

In saying that, go Hawks!

Most of the model-based strength ratings (i.e., those that are data-based, rather than just going with the "vibe") seem to have the Dogs, Lions, and Hawks as the strongest three teams in the competition, and all of them are in the bottom half of the 8. I'd imagine it's pretty unusual that this is the case: Strength tends to be associated with win number and percentage, and win numbers and percentages affect ladder positions. Here, all three teams had poor starts to the season, but have been pretty good more recently, so the usual relationship doesn't hold.

As far as the winner of this EF going all the way is concerned, I don't think that's a great stretch. One of the greatest challenges for teams outside the top 4 to win the GF is---as you say---that they have to win 4 consecutive games, whereas teams in the top 4 only have to win 3. For instance, if we imagine for illustration's sake that there is a 50% chance of a team winning any game, winning 3 in a row has a probability of 12.5% vs. 6.25% for winning 4 in a row. However, if the proposition is that the winner of an EF will go on to win the whole thing, rather than either team in particular, this compensates for the extra game (since one of the two teams has to win it).

The question then becomes whether the winner's greater strength will be enough to compensate for potential away-ground disadvantages in subsequent finals. For the semi-final, that won't be an issue if the opponent is Geelong; though it will if the opponent is Port Adelaide. The prelim will be in Sydney either way, and the GF will be in Melbourne either way. I wouldn't be confident that either the Dogs or the Hawks will win through all three, but I wouldn't be super surprised if they do either.

It's also worth noting that one of the reasons the two teams have unfavourable gambling odds is because they have to play each other in the first week. Their EF shapes to be the closest thing to a 50-50 game in Week 1 of the finals. So, the odds of the Dogs winning the flag are pretty low, and the odds of the Hawks winning the flag are pretty low… but the odds of one or the other doing it are probably not that bad.

(Nek minnit: The winner of the EF goes out in the semi like you suggest!)

 

[peetoo]

Yep, and we still have premiership players, and players who played in a GF, three years ago, so what.

One from hawks premiership winning team

 

[MYOB]

A bit unrelated here but I’m travelling from Tassie for the game and have already booked flights and accommodation, I have a bulldogs membership barcode to access member tickets tomorrow but now I’m freaking out I won’t get any, should I be okay if I’m onto it quick enough? Or is it likely to sell out super quick? Any advice is appreciated

It's not going to sell out during the members allocation

 

[Dazb86]

We'll win this in a canter.

Dogs by 6 goals without getting out of 2nd gear.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

If we go with the gameplan we did vs geelong we get flogged. If we go with the gameplan which has won us nearly every game this year, that of one where we run and don't give the oppo time to set up, we win. Simple

 

[Leeda]

I think this will be a blowout I’m just not sure which way

Lets go with a ear piercing scream of rapture...i let u have your way

 

[peetoo]

We'll win this in a canter.

Dogs by 6 goals without getting out of 2nd gear.

If hawks let them get out of first gear..like last few meetings

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

If hawks let them get out of first gear..like last few meetings

We are not playing at Launceston.

 

[Leeda]

We are not playing at Launceston.

Yes and u dare to dream...what was I saying...? crumbling into ineptitude

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Hawks get through this one I think, will be taxing though so Im not sure they progress past the semi.
From where they've come from its been a fair effort though.

 

[Pres]

Massive demand for MCC tickets - I had to wait 10 mins to just get in the queue. Only final in Melb of course.

 

[Gene Simmons]

Friday night confirmed @ 7:40pm.

First Friday night game for the Hawks since 2022. I think only our second night game this year.

We are finally on prime time.

I'm sure the AFL probably toyed with the idea of playing this match at 4:40pm on a Sunday....

 

[Leeda]

I'm sure the AFL probably toyed with the idea of playing this match at 4:40pm on a Sunday....

Gather round you Vic plebs..getting wicked...

 

[Dazb86]

If hawks let them get out of first gear..like last few meetings

I wouldn't be surprised if we rested a few for this one. Why risk an injury in such an easy game? Need our best players fit for Geelong or Port.

 

[barbster]

Yep and we won’t lose Libba to concussion from a kick in the head from a Hawks player, who never got penalised. Nice that Jones is playing, a bit of karma there.

Libba got hit in the head by an errant boot with Hawks up by 12 points with 3 minutes left in the game. Admittedly he did have a clash of heads in the first few minutes, where he should have sat out for the game under the concussion protocols.
This time we’ll have Sicily playing with two arms and a Watson who won’t be missing goals from 5 metres out.

 

[The 4th Horseman]

Interesting to note that post bye, the Bulldogs are 4-1 against the top 8 while the Hawks are 1-2. Belted up an injury hit Carlton, belted by the Cats and a narrow loss to the Giants, while we beat 3 of the top 4 which included belting the Swans away, belting the Cats away and running it out comfortably against the Giants in Ballarat. Only blip was the Port heavy loss.

 

[Boristown]

Libba got hit in the head by an errant boot with Hawks up by 12 points with 3 minutes left in the game. This time we’ll have Sicily playing with two arms and a Watson who won’t be missing goals from 5 metres out.

On the other hand you'll have Will Day with one arm at best while the Dogs will have Lobb in defence and Richards in the midfield which has completely transformed their entire game style over the last 8 weeks.

Plus Watson is still liable to miss from the goal square.

 

[MadMaxx]

Interesting to note that post bye, the Bulldogs are 4-1 against the top 8 while the Hawks are 1-2. Belted up an injury hit Carlton, belted by the Cats and a narrow loss to the Giants, while we beat 3 of the top 4 which included belting the Swans away, belting the Cats away and running it out comfortably against the Giants in Ballarat. Only blip was the Port heavy loss.

Stats stats and Lies.

In such a close season, look at who was in the 8 when we played them. Freo (2nd) and Pies (6th) both got shunted out, in no small part when losing to us. We sent the blues out with a 12 goal win.... And whilst the Crows were out of the 8 when we played, at the time, the pundits thought they were headed back in. Again another 10 goal win.

So we really had a big hand in shaping the 8.

Note 2 (choke) losses to Port and Giants, both away, can be put down to inexperience in closing out games. Wont happen too often.
The only sides to really get ahold of us were Sydney and Melbourne early, and the Cats down there towards the end.

 

[Breretonisahood]

On the other hand you'll have Will Day with one arm at best while the Dogs will have Lobb in defence and Richards in the midfield which has completely transformed their entire game style over the last 8 weeks.

Plus Watson is still liable to miss from the goal square.

What good will Lobb be against our small, quick fwds? It’ll be like Frankenstein chasing a bunch of chipmunks!

 

[barbster]

On the other hand you'll have Will Day with one arm at best while the Dogs will have Lobb in defence and Richards in the midfield which has completely transformed their entire game style over the last 8 weeks.

Plus Watson is still liable to miss from the goal square.

Can’t argue with a North supporter as you have seen both teams firsthand over the last two weeks. I haven’t watched the dogs since we beat them earlier in the year when we were playing average football.