Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 17 - Pies v Bombers Fri July 5th 7:40pm AEST (MCG)

[PetterdHoisted]

Go to bed spotty …

all good, just a weirdly misguided flex against one of only two teams that has enjoyed consistent PREMIERSHIP success in the last decade or so.

I mean, maybe EFC fans could call Saints and Freo fans desperate?

Would still be pot-kettle-black stuff from the outside though.

Very pleased with the Bombers win tonight, however. That is not at issue!

 

[windyhill]

essendon have to travel once in their last 12 games of the season. in the last round. im tempted to make a thread on how

essendon have to travel once in their last 12 games of the season. in the last round. im tempted to make a thread on how disgraceful that is

Check our start to the year brother and then you’ll understand our run home.

 

[BloodRet]

Check our start to the year brother and then you’ll understand our run home.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

The fact that Richmond fans are just saying "OH WE'RE HUGE LOOK AT OUR CROWD AGAINST ANOTHER BOTTOM 6 SIDE!"

We don't care. We know you're big. You don't need to keep pointing it out.

fair enough, I'll shut my mouth.

 

[Eat_Pant]

Is Locky Schultz fit ? Looks like he’s carry a few kgs

And that’s just in his head.

 

[Lingsface]

Merrett will be a top 5 all time player at Essendon by career end in my opinion, seriously good player hasn’t had the success of other sides but what he has done in his career is so good. About to win his 5th best and fairest and 4th all aus jersey.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

True. A lot of those possessions though were handballs to a player to get 1 back to make a 20 metre kick sideways. He'd have 3 touches in a chain but do nothing with them. This is what I was getting at with my previous comment but probably didn't explain well enough. He's still working defensively to get possessions in defensive 50 but is now making smarter decisions and backing himself to execute the release kick / handball out of defensive 50 so his possessions have more hurt.

Trent Cotchin got accused of the same things early in his career then became the player we all know.

Merret has done the same imo

 

[Shane Heard]

Not really a big scalp. We are injury riddled and patching up holes every week and then we lose another three premiership players to long term injuries. It's not meant to be. Bombers at full strength should have been favorites from the start.

We had no ruckman on the ground for most of the last term and now going forward will have to rely on Freddie Krueger to impersonate one for the next few weeks. Context matters.

Just face the cold hard truth of the matter..you were chopped up by a champion captain and his young brigade of lethal guns.

Seek and destroyed..

 

[Shane Heard]

Merrett will be a top 5 all time player at Essendon by career end in my opinion, seriously good player hasn’t had the success of other sides but what he has done in his career is so good. About to win his 5th best and fairest and 4th all aus jersey.

He goes all right.

For anyone that gives a shit ..he’s indeed heading towards EFC immortality..but unless he’s a premiership captain there’s no induction into the top 10 anytime soon.

Hard to squeeze in between Dick Reynolds, Bill Hutchinson, Coleman, Hird, T.Watson, Terry Daniher, Simon Madden, Ken Fraser, Jack Clarke and Mark Mercuri.

 

[raskolnikov]

He goes all right.

For anyone that gives a shit ..he’s indeed heading towards EFC immortality..but unless he’s a premiership captain there’s no induction into the top 10 anytime soon.

Hard to squeeze in between Dick Reynolds, Bill Hutchinson, Coleman, Hird, T.Watson, Terry Daniher, Simon Madden, Ken Fraser, Jack Clarke and Mark Mercuri.

I'd have him before Mercuri.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Looked ominous early but got back into it and controlled the game after HT.
That would probably be one of Essendons best wins over the last few years

 

[davo78]

why were the pies wearing white shorts? it was their home game :/

 

[Vindicater]

Somehow underrated too, his ball use is actually ridiculous

Yet Champion data said his ball use is what keeps him out of the top players conversation.

 

[RAPPA]

Nate Caddy looks a gem!

 

[Jobe]

I haven't been active in 10 years, but i heard Bombers are good now, so i guess im back.

 

[MisterMarcus]

I hate Collingwood as much as anyone, but it never makes me happy seeing players get injured.

 

[Red Bull]

He goes all right.

For anyone that gives a shit ..he’s indeed heading towards EFC immortality..but unless he’s a premiership captain there’s no induction into the top 10 anytime soon.

Hard to squeeze in between Dick Reynolds, Bill Hutchinson, Coleman, Hird, T.Watson, Terry Daniher, Simon Madden, Ken Fraser, Jack Clarke and Mark Mercuri.

There is only one …

 

[chaddy22]

The other thing about Merrett apart from his kicking was in the last quarter when the Magpies were mounting a challenge
Merrett was sprinting from contest to contest to pressure the magpies and try to turn the ball over. It was unrewarded but sets a great example for the rest of the team.

 

[raskolnikov]

Merrett has been huge, he would have the Essendon B and F wrapped up, could be a smokey for the Brownlow too.

He's third favourite with the bookies so not sure he would be a smokey.

 

[fishardansin]

Can you re write that sentence?

It’s making me seasick reading it over and over.

Or does it just need a simple comma?

Bourbon infused -shower thoughts*

Sorry, let me try again!

Perhaps one day, people will understand what random means and that outcomes will eventually revert to the mean.

In other words, humans misunderstand "well-mixed" and "random". Probabilistic outcomes are always lumpy, but people were thinking that Collingwood winning so many close games coming from behind was an indication of it not being by chance. This is despite many of those outcomes relying upon opposition making unforced errors.

For example, in the Essendon game, if Jones had have kicked straight from 35m out directly in front Essendon would be leading by 11 points with 1 min to go and game over. We would not be discussing whether Ham had been on his man then Collingwood would not have been able to transition the ball so easily or the probability of Elliot kicking that amazing goal from the pocket.

Also, I seem to remember Carlton making similar errors in the game they lost to them last game of the season as well.

What was true was the psychological effect on everyone, including opposition players and coaches - BECAUSE THEY ARE TOO STUPID TO UNDERSTAND PROBABILITY - and would change the way they were playing when Collingwood kicked a goal late in the game. Instead of holding their nerve and looking to hurt Collingwood back the other way as they rolled the dice, they would go into their shells and try and protect their lead. Which played into Collingwood's hands.

 

[Countryfooty1]

very strange decision to drop Goldy

Smart decision. Goldstein was drafted to give Essendon a genuine ruck option outside of Draper given that Draper has shown he's injury prone while some of the younger players develop. Goldstein's best is behind him and lacks a follow up effort far to often which for Draper's faults he does give. Essendon aren't a flag threat this year and Goldstein has no trade capital given his age.

Regardless of how long it takes Essendon to challenge again one guarantee is that Todd Goldstein won't be in the team, however Sam Draper might. Furthermore if Draper plays a couple of good games it gives a glimpse into the next couple years. Draper has trade capital and if he plays well this only increases. Draper has shown glimpses that if it clicks consistently he could have a solid career. There's potential for a club to offer a trade for Draper and a Draper that's playing well has more capital than one that's in the reserves.

Worse case scenario Essendon lose a couple of games in a season they weren't a genuine threat and the success of the season is measured in the improvement of players and ability to stay competitive in games against top teams longer. If this happens Essendon can always go back to Goldstein. Unlike St. Kilda last year most people realise that Essendon's ladder position is a false reflection and is partly because of the kind draw they've received similar to what St. Kilda's was last year. The challenge for Essendon is to sustain the higher level during times when the draw is less kind.

 

[hirdylloydy1]

Smart decision. Goldstein was drafted to give Essendon a genuine ruck option outside of Draper given that Draper has shown he's injury prone while some of the younger players develop. Goldstein's best is behind him and lacks a follow up effort far to often which for Draper's faults he does give. Essendon aren't a flag threat this year and Goldstein has no trade capital given his age.

Regardless of how long it takes Essendon to challenge again one guarantee is that Todd Goldstein won't be in the team, however Sam Draper might. Furthermore if Draper plays a couple of good games it gives a glimpse into the next couple years. Draper has trade capital and if he plays well this only increases. Draper has shown glimpses that if it clicks consistently he could have a solid career. There's potential for a club to offer a trade for Draper and a Draper that's playing well has more capital than one that's in the reserves.

Worse case scenario Essendon lose a couple of games in a season they weren't a genuine threat and the success of the season is measured in the improvement of players and ability to stay competitive in games against top teams longer. If this happens Essendon can always go back to Goldstein. Unlike St. Kilda last year most people realise that Essendon's ladder position is a false reflection and is partly because of the kind draw they've received similar to what St. Kilda's was last year. The challenge for Essendon is to sustain the higher level during times when the draw is less kind.

You say kind draw, however our draw was ranked the 6th hardest,whereas sydney was ranked the 17th hardest, we travelled 5 times in the first 10 rounds, people look at us having a run of melbourne games and dont realise how much we travelled early on

 

[Blind Turn]

Merrett will be a top 5 all time player at Essendon by career end in my opinion, seriously good player hasn’t had the success of other sides but what he has done in his career is so good. About to win his 5th best and fairest and 4th all aus jersey.

Reynolds, Hutchison, Coleman, Hird, Madden, T Watson. That’s some serious legend material to snuff out. One glaring thing they all have over him - premierships.

Deliver us a premiership and you’ll be worthy of being in their company Zach.

 

[Lingsface]

Reynolds, Hutchison, Coleman, Hird, Madden, T Watson. That’s some serious legend material to snuff out. One glaring thing they all have over him - premierships.

Deliver us a premiership and you’ll be worthy of being in their company Zach.

Speaking from a Geelong point of view not all legends have a premiership, sometimes there is only so much one man can do. I think he is a better player than T Watson by career end I’d put Lloyd ahead though.

 

[Blind Turn]

Speaking from a Geelong point of view not all legends have a premiership, sometimes there is only so much one man can do. I think he is a better player than T Watson by career end I’d put Lloyd ahead though.

Not sure why people underrate Watson’s career. Simon Madden was my favourite footballer as a kid but I can tell you right now that when we won 2 premierships against the best team of the 80s Tim was our best player at the time. He was the player that teams had to stop and a talismanic presence. I wonder if people have memories of his laboured final year or 2 in their heads. He was the prototype burst out of congestion midfielder and resting forward goalkicker at his peak. Merret is not near Timmy yet.

Performing in big games is a legitimate factor in rating players and unfortunately Zach and Jobe are examples of players who have not yet, or have never had that exposure.