Autopsy AFL 2024 Second Elimination Final - Dogs v Hawks Fri Sept 6th 7:40pm EST (MCG) - Teams in OP

[Boristown]

What good will Lobb be against our small, quick fwds? It’ll be like Frankenstein chasing a bunch of chipmunks!

Why would he be chasing? He’ll be marking it over your midges.

 

[Astro_]

Dogs too structured and experienced.

Don't get the hype with the Hawks.

Dogs by 30+

 

[Leeda]

Dogs too structured and experienced.

Don't get the hype with the Hawks.

Dogs by 30+

Yep ..I deserve a pummelling. .must do better..

 

[Rotayjay]

On the note of attendance, I'm aware that finals and especially grand final crowds partly depend on how many MCC members turn up. How many memberships with AFL finals seating rights are in existence? Is it more than enough to fill up the MCC reserve since members still line up for grand final seats?

 

[TheFourPillars]

Talk about bigheads they make the finals for the first time in ages, they call us a scumbag club and they are going to belt us by 11 goals.

Regardless of what the hawks supporters think we are now good club lead by an outstanding captain and we will be hard to beat even allowing for the hawks bravado.

I think the same can be said for bulldog supporters, some who seem pretty confident. Good for them. For what it's worth I think this game will be close. The dogs form leading in is second to none. The hawk's form has been pretty damn good. The longer the season has gone on the better the Hawks have gotten. Our confidence is high. We will be tough to beat. Bring it, may the best team win

 

[Gavin Excell]

 

[MoscowHawk]

So if it's a full house, or close to full, it will be the 2nd/3rd biggest crowd the Dogs have ever played in front of.

Largest was the 1961 GF against Hawthorn - 107k
Second largest was the 2021 GF against Syndey (and this elimination final may even beat that) - 99.8k

 

[BallaratBulldog]

So if it's a full house, or close to full, it will be the 2nd/3rd biggest crowd the Dogs have ever played in front of.

Largest was teh 1961 GF against Hawthorn - 107k
Second largest was the 2021 GF against Syndey (and this elimination final may even beat that) - 99.8k

Dogs vs Dons and Melb in 2021 would have been massive if the world wasn’t what it was

 

[RCAB]

So if it's a full house, or close to full, it will be the 2nd/3rd biggest crowd the Dogs have ever played in front of.

Largest was teh 1961 GF against Hawthorn - 107k
Second largest was the 2021 GF against Syndey (and this elimination final may even beat that) - 99.8k

Probably be a similar result

 

[hawkman]

Libba got hit in the head by an errant boot with Hawks up by 12 points with 3 minutes left in the game. Admittedly he did have a clash of heads in the first few minutes, where he should have sat out for the game under the concussion protocols.
This time we’ll have Sicily playing with two arms and a Watson who won’t be missing goals from 5 metres out.

Chol didn't play last time either

 

[MtGHawk]

Dogs too structured and experienced.

Don't get the hype with the Hawks.

Dogs by 30+

Maybe. We will find out next week. There's obvious hype because of the great form. Dogs favs though.

 

[Rotayjay]

Most of the model-based strength ratings (i.e., those that are data-based, rather than just going with the "vibe") seem to have the Dogs, Lions, and Hawks as the strongest three teams in the competition, and all of them are in the bottom half of the 8. I'd imagine it's pretty unusual that this is the case: Strength tends to be associated with win number and percentage, and win numbers and percentages affect ladder positions. Here, all three teams had poor starts to the season, but have been pretty good more recently, so the usual relationship doesn't hold.

As far as the winner of this EF going all the way is concerned, I don't think that's a great stretch. One of the greatest challenges for teams outside the top 4 to win the GF is---as you say---that they have to win 4 consecutive games, whereas teams in the top 4 only have to win 3. For instance, if we imagine for illustration's sake that there is a 50% chance of a team winning any game, winning 3 in a row has a probability of 12.5% vs. 6.25% for winning 4 in a row. However, if the proposition is that the winner of an EF will go on to win the whole thing, rather than either team in particular, this compensates for the extra game (since one of the two teams has to win it).

The question then becomes whether the winner's greater strength will be enough to compensate for potential away-ground disadvantages in subsequent finals. For the semi-final, that won't be an issue if the opponent is Geelong; though it will if the opponent is Port Adelaide. The prelim will be in Sydney either way, and the GF will be in Melbourne either way. I wouldn't be confident that either the Dogs or the Hawks will win through all three, but I wouldn't be super surprised if they do either.

It's also worth noting that one of the reasons the two teams have unfavourable gambling odds is because they have to play each other in the first week. Their EF shapes to be the closest thing to a 50-50 game in Week 1 of the finals. So, the odds of the Dogs winning the flag are pretty low, and the odds of the Hawks winning the flag are pretty low… but the odds of one or the other doing it are probably not that bad.

(Nek minnit: The winner of the EF goes out in the semi like you suggest!)

Squiggle is just one imperfect model. For what it's worth, Squiggle has the Bulldogs as comfortably the strongest side at the start of finals, stronger than several recent premiers.

In comparison, it has Sydney, Carlton, Geelong and GWS as not premiership-standard yet, and Hawthorn and Port of comparable strength to Richmond in 2017 and better than Collingwood last year. The 2023 Collingwood side broke new ground in terms of premiership winner weakness.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Marvel no advantage to us v. the Hawks, always seem to play us hard there.

Haven't lost at Marvel all year. Not an advantage at all and wouldn't mind playing there TBH. Obviously prefer the G.

 

[SSSSSS]

Chook lotto gets Owies but let's Jones go. Thought they both had a similar action but I guess one is a potato and one isn't.

 

[HawkAbroad]

The Dogs were the last team I wanted us to play. If they gain ascendency in clearances from center-forward, our defense won't be able to hold up. Was hoping we could push Weddle up the ground more, but he'll be needed down back with their size.

Still have hope that we can keep it close and run them off their feet late, but either way it's been a great season, and we're looking to address our weakness this off-season and come back even stronger.

 

[Arkangel]

Squiggle is just one imperfect model. For what it's worth, Squiggle has the Bulldogs as comfortably the strongest side at the start of finals, stronger than several recent premiers.

In comparison, it has Sydney, Carlton, Geelong and GWS as not premiership-standard yet, and Hawthorn and Port of comparable strength to Richmond in 2017 and better than Collingwood last year. The 2023 Collingwood side broke new ground in terms of premiership winner weakness.

View attachment 2095045

This sent me down the rabbit hole, looking to see what happened in the past when a team in the bottom half of the 8 was rated as one of the top-3 strongest sides at the conclusion of the regular season. Over the last 5 years, this has happened twice:
- In 2023, GWS were rated 3rd-strongest, but finished 7th. They made the PF and lost by 1 point to eventual premiers Collingwood (themselves rated about 5th).
- In 2021, the Dogs were rated 3rd-strongest, but finished 5th. They made the GF and lost to Melbourne (themselves rated 1st).
- (Honourable mention: In 2019, Hawthorn were rated 2nd-strongest, but missed finals entirely. Hawks supporters… what the heck happened that season?)

So, I guess there is some precedent for higher-rated teams in the bottom half of the 8 doing better than their ladder positions would suggest, but not for winning the whole thing.

 

[MtGHawk]

Evenly matched game. Both deserve at least a semi final spot and better teams than most of the top 4.

 

[MtGHawk]

Thinking Will Day being fit and available is crucial.

Keen to know if they're going to tag Moore like the Kangas did.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Thinking Will Day being fit and available is crucial.

Keen to know if they're going to tag Moore like the Kangas did.

The bump is back if Day plays. Just a few fair bumps to make sure his shoulder is 100%.

 

[brmi]

Going to be a cracker. Both teams have different strengths and could go either way.

Our mids and tall forwards could prove to much for the Hawks to handle. If our mids don't get on top, the Hawks quick ball movement and small forwards will have a field day.

Cannot wait!

 

[TheFourPillars]

The bump is back if Day plays. Just a few fair bumps to make sure his shoulder is 100%.

hahaha Don't worry there will be a few coming libba's way just to make sure.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Thinking Will Day being fit and available is crucial.

Keen to know if they're going to tag Moore like the Kangas did.

Dogs generally don’t tag.

 

[Mofra]

Thinking Will Day being fit and available is crucial.

Keen to know if they're going to tag Moore like the Kangas did.

Bevo rarely tags as a first option. Occasionally we'll have a run-with role for a player but that's normally a forward to try and negate an intercept marking threat - expect someone to go to Sicily who has carved us up in the past.

I'm worried about the Hawks small forwards but the focus will probably be in restricting supply more than stopping individual forwards.

 

[MF]

Thinking Will Day being fit and available is crucial.

Keen to know if they're going to tag Moore like the Kangas did.

Dogs usually don't play a hard tag.

 

[MF]

Tipping the dogs by about 24 in this one but wouldn't surprise me at all if the Hawks managed to get it done. Playing some amazing footy under Mitchell.