Preview AFL Round 15 - Geelong v Hawthorn, MCG, 7:40PM Saturday 6 July

[Hoffy95]

What if the hawks are up by five points, mere seconds left on the clock, long bomb by, I dunno, Bartell sailing through at chest height where Lake is sprinting in to comfortably spoil it through but OH NO SELWOOD HAS DELIVERED A VICIOUS TRIP THAT NOT ONLY CAUSES LAKE TO FALL OVER BUT TO ALSO BADLY BREAK HIS LEG.

Geelong wins.
Hawks lose their only remaining KPD sized player.
Selwood delivered the blow through illegal means
Bigfooty error message lasts 3 weeks.

A dream script.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Dude!!! Are you SURE you follow the hawks?

I like to imagine the worst case scenario, then work upwards.

 

[witsend]

I like to imagine the worst case scenario, then work upwards.

There's a thought in here that we may be building towards a ruck advantage over Hawks, which we used to have with Ottens. Now no-one's saying Simpson is anywhere near Ottens' standard but there has been a quantum shift in our clearance stats over the past 2 weeks since he started back. We'll probably include 1 of Vardy/West as backup to press home the "advantage". How confident are you guys that you can hold your own at clearances?

 

[SleazySimon]

Im in favor of playing all of Simpson, vardy with blicavs on the wing (done enough to keep his spot). Was not as bad
Against freo as some have said. Made a few fumbles but that's just an honest mistake and some of the senior guys have been doing it too.

Just for this game though I'd play west ahead of vardy as he is more versitile (can play down back also) and is slightly more experienced which is whats needed against hawthorn. Vardy was ordinary against gws.

 

[hawkman]

There's a thought in here that we may be building towards a ruck advantage over Hawks, which we used to have with Ottens. Now no-one's saying Simpson is anywhere near Ottens' standard but there has been a quantum shift in our clearance stats over the past 2 weeks since he started back. We'll probably include 1 of Vardy/West as backup to press home the "advantage". How confident are you guys that you can hold your own at clearances?

Not great, we have been smashed in the middle against Carlton and West Coast in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Around the ground we have been solid though

 

[Senatorguesty]

Reckon we will win this game quite well and I like the idea of still having it over them. At the same time each wins takes a step closer to losing to them. So maybe we should get it over and done with, then regroup for finals.
Ah nope let's just continue the streak into 2014.

That's a fallacy.
Each game is a 50/50 contest, never does previous results tip the odds in any direction.
Saturday night is 50/50, round 1 was 50/50.
2013 will be 50/50.

 

[romeoh]

That's a fallacy.
Each game is a 50/50 contest, never does previous results tip the odds in any direction.
Saturday night is 50/50, round 1 was 50/50.
2013 will be 50/50.

Maybe but the law of odds/averages surely suggest that the longer without a loss, the closer to one?
Anyway the better team wins on the day. We have been that team for sometime now and so we win.
And we still are.

 

[cats_09]

Not necessarily relevant to this game, but Geelong have reinstated Varcoe to the senior list and sent Walker back to the rookie list - unless we have another LTI would seem its going to be hard for Walker to be elevated again this year, either that or they send one of Burbs/Blitz back to the rookie list.

 

[WWSD]

There's a thought in here that we may be building towards a ruck advantage over Hawks, which we used to have with Ottens. Now no-one's saying Simpson is anywhere near Ottens' standard but there has been a quantum shift in our clearance stats over the past 2 weeks since he started back. We'll probably include 1 of Vardy/West as backup to press home the "advantage". How confident are you guys that you can hold your own at clearances?

It could depend on who our starting midfielders are for this match. I would like to see Clarkson play Mitchell in the center for the entire game. There is no use for our best clearance player playing at half back, when we have players like Burgoyne and Hodge who can play that sweeping role across half back. We were badly beaten in the clearences by Carlton and West Coast.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

There's a thought in here that we may be building towards a ruck advantage over Hawks, which we used to have with Ottens. Now no-one's saying Simpson is anywhere near Ottens' standard but there has been a quantum shift in our clearance stats over the past 2 weeks since he started back. We'll probably include 1 of Vardy/West as backup to press home the "advantage". How confident are you guys that you can hold your own at clearances?

Not very - our clearance stats have been poor lately, and without being sure of baileys inclusion I'm not sure it'll get any better this week.

One contributing factor is that we have been keeping our back six and front six in position - the result is that we don't have the extra player running through on the overlap.

Considering Geelong have always been so good at drawing our defenders out of position it may be a tactic to be more resilient against you guys.

 

[Turbocat]

Not very - our clearance stats have been poor lately, and without being sure of baileys inclusion I'm not sure it'll get any better this week.

One contributing factor is that we have been keeping our back six and front six in position - the result is that we don't have the extra player running through on the overlap.

Considering Geelong have always been so good at drawing our defenders out of position it may be a tactic to be more resilient against you guys.

It seem both side are evolving. Lake has been good for you , and has a good record V Hawkins. But if we play Simpson and he play like he has , it changes the way our onballers set up. It should draw more forwards to lead which Lake is not as happy with.
Both sides seem to back their skill to hold the ball and turn the other side over.
Its no fluke that there have been so many close games, although there is an element of luck in the way the results have gone.
I want to see who we play. Vardy in changes it again, as he is a high mark unlike any we have had for a while. For Hawks Roughead's form is back to 08 best.

They can stick Car V Coll where the sun dont shine. This is the clash of the ultra rivals .

 

[CF]

Against freo as some have said. Made a few fumbles but that's just an honest mistake and some of the senior guys have been doing it too.

Maybe Blicavs was fumbling the ball because it was wet and slippery from the heavy dew, which every other player on both teams did as well.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Not necessarily relevant to this game, but Geelong have reinstated Varcoe to the senior list and sent Walker back to the rookie list - unless we have another LTI would seem its going to be hard for Walker to be elevated again this year, either that or they send one of Burbs/Blitz back to the rookie list.

They can still nominate Walker as available for 1sts under the Mid-Season option, can't they?
Assuming Blicavs and Burbury are already up for LTIs (McCarthy, Menzel).

 

[FredLeDeux]

That's a fallacy.
Each game is a 50/50 contest, never does previous results tip the odds in any direction.
Saturday night is 50/50, round 1 was 50/50.
2013 will be 50/50.

Keep fighting the good fight, brother.

 

[manboob]

Dude!!! Are you SURE you follow the hawks?

I know right! He is the Tom Cruise of the bigfooty world.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

It seem both side are evolving. Lake has been good for you , and has a good record V Hawkins. But if we play Simpson and he play like he has , it changes the way our onballers set up. It should draw more forwards to lead which Lake is not as happy with.
Both sides seem to back their skill to hold the ball and turn the other side over.
Its no fluke that there have been so many close games, although there is an element of luck in the way the results have gone.
I want to see who we play. Vardy in changes it again, as he is a high mark unlike any we have had for a while. For Hawks Roughead's form is back to 08 best.

They can stick Car V Coll where the sun dont shine. This is the clash of the ultra rivals .

Truly fascinating encounter , some really good points made Turbo
I'd like to see Tom isolated on Lake for part of the game at least , reckon Tom can take him if the delivery is OK - great dress rehearsal for the Finals.
Dawson changes things in a big way , we no longer have to concede clearances/ stoppages and counterpunch once we win it back.
He gives us clean ball which makes a huge difference on the attack.
The other dynamic is our defence has taken care of their forwards , let's hope that still holds as they have broadened their options with Breust , Gunston and Cyril may be back.
We haven't stood still either - we move the ball so much quicker through transition now , even with SJ and Varcoe missing they may struggle to contain us in this area. Motlop could be the x factor and I would play Smedts ahead of Murdoch for a similar reason.
Forward defensive pressure will be vital and we need to bring this for th full game if we are to win , can't wait

 

[FredLeDeux]

No changes

B: Guthrie, Lonergan, Enright
HB: Corey, Taylor, T Hunt
C: Mackie, Selwood, Duncan
HF: Stokes, Podsiadly, Blicavs
F: Caddy, Hawkins, Motlop
R: Simpson, Christensen, Bartel
IC: Kelly, Stringer, Murdoch, J Hunt
EMG: Smedts, Varcoe, Vardy

 

[CF]

no change from last week...no surprise there

 

[bigfarter]

Happy with no changes. I would've considered West or Vardy in for Blicavs but if it's going to be wet, we may not need the extra tall up forward and Blitz' run could do us some favours in the final quarter. Got the usual mixture of excitement/fear/anxiety leading into this game. Should be a cracker.

 

[Catgirl]

No changes

 

[you pick one]

Handy trio those emergencies.

 

[manboob]

Haha no changes! We can delete about half the pages in this thread then.
Varcoe as sub eh!

 

[manboob]

thyril in.

 

[bigfarter]

I like naming Varcoe as an emergency. I doubt they'll bring him in at the last minute but it's still something for Hawthorn to think about. Safe game for Hawthorn to bring Cyril back in - Enright will take him out of the game as usual so he won't have to do too much.

 

[manboob]

LOLs at the Hawks fans who think their side is going to run us off the park with pace.
Stokes, Blicavs, Motlop, Christensen, Stringer and Murdoch go alright.