Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XI - McKay. Goldstein. Gresham. Duursma!

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Unfazed said:
If you watch Gettable, Cal says the exact opposite to Ralph. He says Essendon will be the one to get pick 13 by paying Shiel's salary. Basically it's anyone's guess how it goes but Saints fans are only prepared to believe Ralph. My guess is that there'll be a meeting in the middle by both teams.
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Will 100% be a meet in the middle solution, the Dodoro/SOS relationship basically ensures that and you’re dreaming if you think otherwise.

Question is more around whether the AFL will tick off on the contrived nature of the pick being created and then traded to the club who created it, which is the first hurdle, and once we clear that, whether enough finargling can be done to actually make it worth while for everyone involved.

For it to work the end result for St Kilda needs to be that they end up with better comp than they would have got with a market rate deal, we need to end up with a net positive for moving Shiel on and Shiel needs to tick it off as well, which it sounds like he would but the terms need to suit.
 
Call Me Cake said:
And yet an older Shiel has had more game time % in the last 4 seasons than a supposed-to-be-in-his-prime Gresham has.
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But at 31 the risk is far higher really. He may well play a few more years with minimal injuries where I think he offers the Saints a lot, but one or two bad injuries in that time and careers almost over Gresh has more time though I thunk Sheils potential ceiling is higher if he plays well without injuries it’s a risk though. Also why there is more to the deal us offer 750k than is made out
 
citizen-erased said:
I wonder if its shiel for a year, but cap space for longer

Gresham FA band 1
We trade them, say, 700k pa cap space for a few years and shiel for that pick
They use that space for shiel next year, but year after that shiel is whatever they choose to do, but still have the cap space.

And all they’ve lost is gresham.
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can't
 
Zach Package said:
Will 100% be a meet in the middle solution, the Dodoro/SOS relationship basically ensures that and you’re dreaming if you think otherwise.

Question is more around whether the AFL will tick off on the contrived nature of the pick being created and then traded to the club who created it, which is the first hurdle, and once we clear that, whether enough finargling can be done to actually make it worth while for everyone involved.

For it to work the end result for St Kilda needs to be that they end up with better comp than they would have got with a market rate deal, we need to end up with a net positive for moving Shiel on and Shiel needs to tick it off as well, which it sounds like he would but the terms need to suit.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think it'll be somewhere in the middle as well. Can't see us getting 13 just because we overpay Gresham, even if they are getting Shiel with some salary paid. At least not without them getting something else back.

What I don't get is Aints supporters thinking they're going to end up with pick 13 and Shiel, and we'll pay his salary. And we should be happy they're taking Shiel because he's old and broken, so they're doing us a favour.

In the back of my mind though is Essington... so nothing would surprise me at this point.
 
TheGreatBarryB said:
Been said many times but why on earth would Saints give up pick 13 for Shiel?? Not happening.
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DonsRule said:
Yep,


Agree there is no way Sheil is worth pick 13. But nor is Gresh worth anywhere near 750K either so there is clearly something missing from the story.
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Not to belabor the point that has been already done to death, but the valuation in the hypothetical deal doing the rounds isn't "Shiel = pick 13". That would be fantasist stuff.

It's "Shiel > band 3 compo". If Ess pay Gresham his likely market value, Saints get band 3 compo which is like pick 33. The internal logic of the original story is that St Kilda might think Shiel is better value for them then pick 33 (given the weakness in the middle of this draft cohort). To make that happen in a way that Ess also benefits (those much sought-after win-win negotiations), Ess throw the copious cash they have spare at Gresham to make it band 1 compo, and Saints trade that wholly artificially created, deal-dependent pick back to Essendon for Shiel (perhaps with the added gravy of Ess paying part of his salary next year).

So it is wholly besides the point that Shiel isn't worth pick 13 on the open market. The counterfactual is "do the Saints prefer Shiel to pick 33, and if so, will they work creatively with Jackets to make it happen?"

Now it is perfectly fine for Sainters and other folks to say "I think we'd prefer pick 33", but they can't say "i'd prefer keeping pick 13", because 13 doesn't exist without the artificial wage inflation for Gresham, and Essendon have no incentive to throw that extra cash at him unless there is a payoff. Lastly, it is also fine for folks to say "Saints wouldn't accept pick 33, they'd salary match". Candidly I'm happy if they end up keeping him.

Keystone agony said:
Fremantle asked for pick 12

Atart at one end each, meet in the middle

Its common deal making
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It's also bad deal-making. Making ambit claims is the sign of an inexperienced, time-wasting negotiator. It's been one of the more valid critiques of Jackets over the years. Serious people make realistic opening bids (within the plausible range of valuations), even if they expect to be moved to another point before closing out. A third rounder for Liam Henry is not, by any stretch, a realistic opening bid, so I'd be very surprised if that's what the Saints are offering for Henry.
 
1696192205778.png

Another year of this flog getting absolutely nothing right
 
Keystone agony said:
Im more than happy to give up 150k salary, 2x 2nd rounders and Shiel for pick 12
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Didn't you say this is an 8 player draft?

Horrific, horrific overs.
 

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Unfazed said:
Sounds pretty conclusive that heis going to Collingwood. i guess the guy wants a last chance of success. I'm not sure how many games he's going to get with Cox and Cameron though.
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Was going to be 3rd ruck here as well and the pies just got Billy Frampton a premiership medal. Goldy certainly could have got 2 touches as a full forward on Saturday

Edit Speaking of the premiers. Let’s compare our list at full health to their granny side by categories

Tall defender
Moore, Howe, Murphy vs Ridley, McKay, Cox

That’s 1 AA, 1 good player and 1x3rd year player. That’s fairly even in terms of quality

Small Defender
Maynard, Quaynor, Markov vs Reddog, McGrath and Kelly.

The main gap in expected quality is Kelly vs Markov as the pies have some run off HB and good ball users. Essendon has Redman, McGrath who are solid but really need that 3rd runner off HB

Wing:
Daicos, Sidebottom, WHE vs Martin, Heppell, Durham

Heppell is significantly worse than sidebottom because he’s cooked but the other two are comparable.

Attacking Talls:
Cox, Cameron, Frampton(McStay) vs Wright, Draper, Bryan

Wright is the best forward of the bunch by far. Draper and Bryan have question marks but mostly it’s about physicality which means they still need to build strength. I’d say fairly even quality

Small Forwards:
Elliot, hill, ginivan vs Gresham, Caldwell, Menzie,

Collingwood is much better having 3 goal threats vs Essendon for the most part having battlers. Gresham elevates the quality of this line a lot it was bad last year. Hopefully Davey/Tex can push Guelfi out.

Medium Forward:
Langford > Miocheck

Mids
Mitchell, Pendlebury, Daicos, Degoey, Crisp, McCreary, Lipinski

Vs
Merrett, Parish, Hobbs, Perkins, Tsatas, Stringer, Setterfield

Collingwood is far superior in size, strength and experience. I have plugged in as much size/strength as possible. That’s every midsize player on Essendon’s list and it doesn’t look so bad.

Depth for Essendon is a big issue here as there aren’t any big mids on the list aside from those players and Stringer, Tsatas and Perkins are huge question marks.

If you look at the two lists in comparison Essendon is 2 flankers short and could obviously use some depth.

I suppose the good thing here is Brisbane we’re able to play 2 rookies in those HB/Wing spots in the grand final this year. So it is potentially a spot that the right draftee can hold down
 
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Cup_o_Jobe said:
Not to belabor the point that has been already done to death, but the valuation in the hypothetical deal doing the rounds isn't "Shiel = pick 13". That would be fantasist stuff.

It's "Shiel > band 3 compo". If Ess pay Gresham his likely market value, Saints get band 3 compo which is like pick 33. The internal logic of the original story is that St Kilda might think Shiel is better value for them then pick 33 (given the weakness in the middle of this draft cohort). To make that happen in a way that Ess also benefits (those much sought-after win-win negotiations), Ess throw the copious cash they have spare at Gresham to make it band 1 compo, and Saints trade that wholly artificially created, deal-dependent pick back to Essendon for Shiel (perhaps with the added gravy of Ess paying part of his salary next year).

So it is wholly besides the point that Shiel isn't worth pick 13 on the open market. The counterfactual is "do the Saints prefer Shiel to pick 33, and if so, will they work creatively with Jackets to make it happen?"

Now it is perfectly fine for Sainters and other folks to say "I think we'd prefer pick 33", but they can't say "i'd prefer keeping pick 13", because 13 doesn't exist without the artificial wage inflation for Gresham, and Essendon have no incentive to throw that extra cash at him unless there is a payoff. Lastly, it is also fine for folks to say "Saints wouldn't accept pick 33, they'd salary match". Candidly I'm happy if they end up keeping him.



It's also bad deal-making. Making ambit claims is the sign of an inexperienced, time-wasting negotiator. It's been one of the more valid critiques of Jackets over the years. Serious people make realistic opening bids (within the plausible range of valuations), even if they expect to be moved to another point before closing out. A third rounder for Liam Henry is not, by any stretch, a realistic opening bid, so I'd be very surprised if that's what the Saints are offering for Henry.
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I still don't think that really benefits the Saints or has too high a risk to backfire. The potential reward is there if everything works for then

Which is why I've said something along the lines of pick 13 (if the AFL plays ball think there are some questions there) we hand them pick 28 and sheil. Its about the range Gresh is probably worth so some have some value out of it.
 
Bjchan13 said:
HS has Goldstein heading to Collingwood and no mention of us. Have we missed out there? Was pretty happy to bring him in
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Yeah last week the news of Goldy to the Pies seemed pretty strong.

Probably not over until he announces where he wants to go. But would have to admit the Pies would make an enticing choice in their window so chasing success.
 
jdstorm said:
Was going to be 3rd ruck here as well and the pies just got Billy Frampton a premiership medal. Goldy certainly could have got 2 touches as a full forward on Saturday
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Goldy far more likely to play AFL games at EFC than Collingwood in 2024 IMO.

I'm not sure the 2024 iteration of Goldstein is better than Cameron or Cox, whereas here there's a fair chance Draper will miss games due to injury and Bryan probably isn't physically ready to play one out as a ruckman for the whole season.
 
owen87 said:
Goldy far more likely to play AFL games at EFC than Collingwood in 2024 IMO.

I'm not sure the 2024 iteration of Goldstein is better than Cameron or Cox, whereas here there's a fair chance Draper will miss games due to injury and Bryan probably isn't physically ready to play one out as a ruckman for the whole season.
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maybe cox goes out on a high and heads home?
 
With only a few days until it fully kicks in this is what I would like to see.

Re-sign:
Hunter

Delist:
Snelling and Voss

Trade:
BZT for Sinn. (Half Back)
Massimo to Haw, Ess F4 to Melbourne, James Harmes (Midfield) to Essendon.

Free Agents:
McKay (KPB)
Goldstein (Ruck)

Main Draft:
First round - Darcy Wilson (wing)
Second round - Will Dawson (future forward/ruck)

Rookie Draft:
First selection - Hard running Wing
Second selection - Half back distributer

Main team

FB: McGrath Baldwin Ridley
CHB: Cox McKay Redman
C: Martin Setterfield Durham
CHF: Perkins Jones Davey Jr
FF: Menzie Wright Langford
R: Draper Merrett Parish
Int: Bryan Hobbs Caldwell Stringer
Sub: Guelfi

VFL

FB: Kelly Reid Heppell
CHB: Sinn Laverde Hind
C: Wilson Tsatas (RD Wing)
CHF: Davey Weideman Wanganeen
FF: Dawson Hunter (VFL player)
R: Goldstein Harmes (VFL player)
Int: (RD back flanker) (VFL player) (VFL player) (VFL player)
Sub: (VFL player)
 
Vindicater said:
With only a few days until it fully kicks in this is what I would like to see.

Re-sign:
Hunter

Delist:
Snelling and Voss

Trade:
BZT for Sinn. (Half Back)
Massimo to Haw, Ess F4 to Melbourne, James Harmes (Midfield) to Essendon.

Free Agents:
McKay (KPB)
Goldstein (Ruck)

Main Draft:
First round - Darcy Wilson (wing)
Second round - Will Dawson (future forward/ruck)

Rookie Draft:
First selection - Hard running Wing
Second selection - Half back distributer

Main team

FB: McGrath Baldwin Ridley
CHB: Cox McKay Redman
C: Martin Setterfield Durham
CHF: Perkins Jones Davey Jr
FF: Menzie Wright Langford
R: Draper Merrett Parish
Int: Bryan Hobbs Caldwell Stringer
Sub: Guelfi

VFL

FB: Kelly Reid Heppell
CHB: Sinn Laverde Hind
C: Wilson Tsatas (RD Wing)
CHF: Davey Weideman Wanganeen
FF: Dawson Hunter (VFL player)
R: Goldstein Harmes (VFL player)
Int: (RD back flanker) (VFL player) (VFL player) (VFL player)
Sub: (VFL player)
Click to expand...
not too bad
Harmes over Guelfi (even as a sub). Harmes is a better goal threat.
I'd probably be picking one of Stringer & Perkins and bringing Harmes in tbh. As he can support the midfield and play as a pressure hf.

also, seems unlikely we don't get Gresham. he'd be in ahead of Davey.
 
jdstorm said:
Was going to be 3rd ruck here as well and the pies just got Billy Frampton a premiership medal. Goldy certainly could have got 2 touches as a full forward on Saturday

Edit Speaking of the premiers. Let’s compare our list at full health to their granny side by categories

Tall defender
Moore, Howe, Murphy vs Ridley, McKay, Cox

That’s 1 AA, 1 good player and 1x3rd year player. That’s fairly even in terms of quality

Small Defender
Maynard, Quaynor, Markov vs Reddog, McGrath and Kelly.

The main gap in expected quality is Kelly vs Markov as the pies have some run off HB and good ball users. Essendon has Redman, McGrath who are solid but really need that 3rd runner off HB

Wing:
Daicos, Sidebottom, WHE vs Martin, Heppell, Durham

Heppell is significantly worse than sidebottom because he’s cooked but the other two are comparable.

Attacking Talls:
Cox, Cameron, Frampton(McStay) vs Wright, Draper, Bryan

Wright is the best forward of the bunch by far. Draper and Bryan have question marks but mostly it’s about physicality which means they still need to build strength. I’d say fairly even quality

Small Forwards:
Elliot, hill, ginivan vs Gresham, Caldwell, Menzie,

Collingwood is much better having 3 goal threats vs Essendon for the most part having battlers. Gresham elevates the quality of this line a lot it was bad last year. Hopefully Davey/Tex can push Guelfi out.

Medium Forward:
Langford > Miocheck

Mids
Mitchell, Pendlebury, Daicos, Degoey, Crisp, McCreary, Lipinski

Vs
Merrett, Parish, Hobbs, Perkins, Tsatas, Stringer, Setterfield

Collingwood is far superior in size, strength and experience. I have plugged in as much size/strength as possible. That’s every midsize player on Essendon’s list and it doesn’t look so bad.

Depth for Essendon is a big issue here as there aren’t any big mids on the list aside from those players and Stringer, Tsatas and Perkins are huge question marks.

If you look at the two lists in comparison Essendon is 2 flankers short and could obviously use some depth.

I suppose the good thing here is Brisbane we’re able to play 2 rookies in those HB/Wing spots in the grand final this year. So it is potentially a spot that the right draftee can hold down
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Compare the mentalities and it's not close. We haven't got that 'hunger' yet.
 
DonsRule said:
I think that’s too high a price with Sheil being 31 and injury concerns. If fit be could be an asset but too many risks imo
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its more the cap space. Shiel is the lever to do it.

think about a la Bowes.
Bowes was on 800p.a for 2 years. for freeing that up @ GCS, the cats got pick 7.
that they flattened it out muddies it a bit, but the afl have sorted that i believe.

GCS get 800k cap space
Cats get 7
Bowes/F4 makeweight required as cap trading wasn't on the cards last year.

IF (big if) the AFL allows direct transfer of cap space, we'd be doing similar
St Kilda "buy" cap space with 13.
Shiel may or may not be part of this. they may be keen and rather than take another pick off them, we trade the space and Shiel for 13 vs. the space for 13 and Shiel for a 3rd/4th rd pick.

they use the space to pay Shiel for a year. then if they want to re-sign him beyond '24 that's a new negotiation.
the cap space remains however for as long as we sold it to them for.

Assume the fact this is still grey is the afl and clubs are still ironing out this cap space for picks proposal.
 
citizen-erased said:
not too bad
Harmes over Guelfi (even as a sub). Harmes is a better goal threat.
I'd probably be picking one of Stringer & Perkins and bringing Harmes in tbh. As he can support the midfield and play as a pressure hf.

also, seems unlikely we don't get Gresham. he'd be in ahead of Davey.
Click to expand...
He really isn't more of a goal threat.
 
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